2. What are scenarios? Scenarios are stories or narratives that portray what might happen, why it might happen, and with what consequences Scenarios can be very powerful tools to contemplate the range of possible futures that could develop from the influence of key drivers, events and issues.
3. Definitions “a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out” (Schwartz, 1996).
4. Why use scenarios? Offer a non-linear and dynamic way of thinking Ability to deal with complexity, to consider multiple variables simultaneously, and with ‘different interpretation’ over time Counteracts the historical bias of quantitative forecasting approaches Challenge assumptions
5. Why use scenarios? (II) “Scenario thinking, by setting discussions in a time frame beyond their current assignment and beyond facts and forecasts, allows for a discussion with less defensive behaviour and a more shared sense of purpose” (Ringland, 2002)
6. Objectives and main uses Development of strategy and policy – organisational Heuristic device – ‘re-perceiving’ – in organisational change Stimulate critical thinking, challenge assumptions – within organisations, the general population
7. Purpose of scenario To display the interactions among several trends and events to provide a holistic picture of the future To check the internal consistency and set of forecasts on which they need are based To depict a future situation in a way readily understandable by the non specialist in the subject area
8. Procedure for creating a scenarios(1) Develop a framework for the scenario Forecast the technology(technologies) to be considered(technology developments) Plot the scenario(dates) Write the scenario
9. Develop a framework Each sector of environment -trend -change -technology -critical decision -who will decide
10. Forecast the technology Deployment -when ? -what scale? -how rapid adoption? -what impacts from tech? -critical decision on tech -who are decisionmakers?
11. Plot the scenario Each scenario=sequence of events & decisions Event=lead to key decision
12. Writing scenarios -approaches Looking backward-past =story and problem, future +solution=essay Viewpoint character=someone see or taking part God’s eye view=more the one see Diary=extract personnel letter
13. Procedure(2) Step 1:uncovering the decision Step 2:information-hunting and gathering Step 3:identifying the driving forces of a scenario Step 4:uncover the predetermined elements Step 5:identify the critical uncertainties Step 6:composing scenarios Step 7:Analysis of implications of the decisions according to scenarios Step 8:Selection of leading indicators and signposts
14. Major procedure building scenarios Analysing the past & present Identify the trends and driving forces Extract the trends which can extend into the future Set 3 or 4 appropriate scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic) make scenarios plausible by using the trends
15. How many scenarios? “Scenarios are not conceived of one at a time. You develop a range of two or three possible futures, allowing you to address an array of possibilities and rehearse your responses to each of them. At the same time, more than four scenarios tend to be too complex: you cannot keep track of their ramifications in your mind” (Schwartz)
16. CASE STUDY OF SCENARIO EMPLOYMENT FOR ALL THROUGH MNREGA PREPARED BY VISHNU JANNET SHAMEER ARYA HYDERALI
17. INTRODUCTION Employment schemes are aimed providing job Employment on demand. Legal right. Universal entitlement. Participatory approach Full transparency
18. UNEMPLOYEMENT UPTO HERE Projection of unemployement for the 1990-2000 1.backlog in the beginning of 1990- 28million 2.net entrants to the labour force during 1990-95 37million 3.total unemployed for the 8th plan(1+2) 65million
19. CONT…………… 4.new entrants to the labour force during 1995-2000 41million 5.total for 9th plan(1997-02) =106million Job opportunities needed to be created 1.1997-02 53million 2.2002-07 58million 3.2007-12 55million
20. SCHEMES National Literacy Mission(1975)-aware the scheme Indira AwasYojna(1986)-fund for the shelter National computer saksharata mission(95)-awareness about new tech JawharRozgarYojna(1989)-sustain&additionalemployement Swarnajayanthi Gram SarozgarYojna(1999)-job+food security SampoornaGrameenRozgarYojna(2001)-self emplo NREGA(2005) and in 2009 it is renamed after Mahathma Gandhi as MNREGA
21. Employment within 15 days of application. Unemployment allowance. Work within 5 kilometres. Payment within 15 days. No gender discrimination. Basic worksite facilities. NREGA: Basic Entitlements
24. TRENDS & DRIVING FORCES -Employment on a massive scale.-purchasing power-irrespective of poverty line-Women empowerment-NREGA is a lifeline for the rural poor-Massive progress compared with earlier years!-Awareness levels have improved -Environment awareness-Corruption -Natural disaster
25. SCENARIOS Employment Assurance Diverse schemes. SGSY, IAY, NREGA, SJGRY, Saksharatha Mission, EMS bhavanapadhathi-rural devpt Job for skilled /unskilled unemployed individuals-Education Registered and willing individuals are guaranteed jobs-point overall growth Reduce educated unemployment to below 2%-greater expected opportunity(JRY) Compulsory education to all between 6-14yrs (21-A).Education a fundamental right-more skilled employement Aimed at the building productive work force there by bringing wholesome change to the country-performance matrix Aadhaar (UID)-Govt;aware about range of opportunity
26. Economic Development Acceleration of GDP growth and increase in per capita income-Even in the recession period Enhanced economic activity(demand and supply increases) Economic independence –GDP higher than US Women empowerment-every scheme(30%&no gender discrimination) Effective decentralization-every scheme target rural
28. Eco-friendly growth Sustainable development-deforesting Increase in agricultural GDP growth rate Carbon tax-concened about environment Organic agriculture(manure)-health awareness Reducing pesticides-past unlikely event,export Afforestation, water conservation, Reforestation-global warming
29. CONT…………. Disaster Management(Effectiveness of NGOs)-flood situation in northern state renewal of agriculture an allied techniques-increased research Construction of roads-cutting of trees
30. Integration of schemes & with organisations Integration of programs to improve functionality -JAWAHAR ROZGAR YOJANA= National Rural Employment programme (NREP)& Rural Landless Employment Guarantee Programme (RLEGP) EMS bhavanapdhadhi works provides to MNREGA workers
31. Cont…… Semigovt:demand work force from govt;-wage less Vacancy in the disaster management force-Increased flood and drought in NORTH More coordination b/w state ¢ral govt;-25%-75%
32.
33. 2012- petroleum price hiked to $104 per barrel-last 5year doubled the price 2012-High Price Rise 2012- Govt. takes land for lease which is not cultivating recent 5 years –price Rice(production) 2013-MNREGA basic pay increase to 250- 2014- recording the performance of the employ-performance matrix(more serious work) 2015- declaring awards for the best group of workers-now awards best adminstr&panchayath 2015-Govt;ordered for compulsory internal ship to the graduateholder-temperoryvaccancy in the skilled sector
34. 2015-Review the whole development up to here 2016- BSNL recruited 2000 persons from MNREGA registered members.-wage less 2017- more private and public registered companies started to follow BSNL 2017- wages increases to 350-demand the wage balances with state minimum wage 2018- saksharatha mission completes to a majority extent- compulsory education 2018- wages through banks-rural sector banking 2020- achieve 97% of employment
35. Scenario plot(pessimistic) 2011-Demand for wages =basic pay of the state 2011-The additional wage not based on the index linked fund 2012-Failure for the inclusion of skilled workers-numerous educated people application 2013-Lesser no.of internship vaccancies-kpsc,upsc&ssc recruiting 2013-More corruption identified in the MNREGA fund
36. Cont……… 2014-Petrol price rises severely 2014-FMC prices rises exponentially 2014-A non-UPA party win in the parliament election-corruption scam 2015-Govt;lessen the fund for MNREGA-lack of utlisation of fund 2016-Bureocrat put forward another scheme,assembly pass it-lack of active working of other schemes 2016-MNREGA merges with the new schemes 2017- govt; manely taken care of new scheme in the budget 2018-MNREG dies out but the merged scheme working successfully
44. Conclusion Reduce educated unemployment to below 5%. Create 70 million new work opportunities. Raise real wage rate of unskilled workers by 20 percent
46. From Joseph Coates Perspectiveframework ENVIRONMENT Films Fashion Culture Climate raw materials. cultural transitions -18th to the 19th -19th to the 20th centuries.
48. paradigm Women entry into WW-2 Overwhelming the American trend Change in attitude More concerned about comfort
49. Higlights Economy not affected by the style change More aware about science & technology Medical knowledge Skin-decoration popular Vegetarian mind (avoid natural leather) Disposable (sports,millitary etc) Washable with water New technology
50. Cont…………. Fashion industry always focus on short term basis Textile industry focus on middle class Environmental (global warming) No gender discrimination (official, factory etc) women = 90% women’s clothes + 24- 30 % men’s-this trend will increase
51. Scenarios Pessimistic E-textiles-equipped with profile, jokes etc,colour change possible, Fragrances, pheromones completely water-washable Disposability = both military+ recreational activities
54. Inference comfortable better fitting durable easier to clean or discard health and safety respond to the environment improve our work and recreation Communicate with people automatically
