The Networked Grid 2010 - R. Thompson, D. Leeds


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The Networked Grid 2010 - R. Thompson, D. Leeds

  2. 2. Additional Sponsors
  3. 3. Public Utilities in Attendance Representing over 70 Million Electricity Customers
  4. 4. Keynote Speakers   Mike Montoya, Director of Engineering Advancement   Southern California Edison   Day 1 Utility Keynote   Linda Jackman, Group VP, Product Strategy & Management   Oracle Utilities   Day 2 Software & Applications Keynote   Stephen Johnston, Chief Executive Officer   SmartSynch   Day 2 Network Infrastructure Keynote
  5. 5. Agenda: Day 1, May 18th   9:00am – 9:45am: Introduction and GTM Research Top 5 Smart Grid Trends   9:45am – 10:30am: Keynote Address, Mike Montoya, SCE   10:30am – 11:00am: Break   11:00am – 12:30pm: North American Utility Executive Round Table Discussion   12:30pm – 1:30pm: Lunch   1:30pm – 2:45pm   Track 1: Networked Grid Communications Infrastructure: Scaling AMI and Beyond   Track 2: The Soft Grid: Smart Grid’s Killer Applications   2:40pm – 4:00pm   Track 1: Power Forward: Grid Optimization and Distribution Automation   Track 2: Information is Power: Meter Data Management and Analytics   4:00pm – 4:30pm: Break   4:30pm – 5:45   Track 1: Winning the Home Network Battle: PHYs, Protocols and Platforms   Track 2: The Smart Home Customer Experience: Next-Generation Consumer Services and Time-of-Use Pricing   5:45pm – 8:00pm: Networking Cocktail Reception (Main Pool)
  6. 6. Agenda: Day 2, May 19th   8:45am – 9:00am: Day 2 Welcome and Kickoff   9:00am – 9:30am: Software and Applications Keynote, Linda Jackman, Oracle Utilities   9:30am – 10:00am: Network Infrastructure Keynote, Stephen Johnston, SmartSynch   10:00am – 10:30am: Break   10:30am – 12:30pm: Workshop Sessions   Track 1: Power Layer Infrastructure Technologies and Network Communications Layer Architectures (Erich Gunther, Enernex)   Track 2: North American Utility Smart Grid Case Studies (PG&E, SMUD, USC/LADWP)   12:30pm – 1:30pm: Lunch   1:30pm – 2:30pm   Track 1: Securing the Networked Grid Infrastructure   Track 2: Addressing Peak Demand: The Future of Demand Response and Smart Appliances   2:30pm – 3:30pm   Track 1: The Microgrid Emergence: Distributed, Intermittent Renewable Power and Storage   Track 2: Utility Enterprise 2.0: Information Technology and Back-Office Systems Integration   4:00pm – 5:00pm   Track 1: The Networked EV: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles   Track 2: The Networked Building: Efficient, Automated “Energy LANs”
  7. 7. Indian Wells Conference Center Layout TRACK 2 TRACK 1
  8. 8. The Only Fully-Integrated Media Firm Online Media Market Research Industry Events Annual Summit Events One-Day Conferences Q3/Q4 Events to be Announced Soon!
  9. 9. Smart Grid Research Subscription Service Upcoming Titles   Smart Grid 2015: Market Forecast & Top 5 Trends   Smart Grid Policy: Top 10 State PUC Profiles   The Future of Meter Data Management  Annual Research Subscription Service   The Future of Distribution Automation Communication  Eight (8) Market Reports Per Year Networks  Dedicated Monthly Analyst Access Time   The Networked EV: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles
  10. 10. 1 Year Later: GTM’s Smart Grid Taxonomy
  11. 11. GTM’s Top 5 Smart Grid Trends  Increase Consumer Awareness and Engagement  Realizing the Network Infrastructure Foundation  EV Growth Accelerating the Need for Smart Grids  The Convergence of Smart Grids and Distributed PV  The Growth and Future of Demand Response
  12. 12. 1. Customer Awareness and Engagement   Inability of utilities to adequately explain the benefits of smart meters to customers   What are the necessary actions?   Education   Marketing (Customer Segmenting)   Value   What actions are utilities taking now?   Restructuring organizations around better outbound communications to consumers   Ramping up and better formalizing customer support centers  Ex: PG&E launching dedicated call center with 165 customer service reps.   Dedicating more budget for consumer education and marketing  Ex: BG&E’s $500M smart grid project ($50M dedicated to education & marketing)   Creating transparency and providing factual data to PUCs and consumer groups  Ex: Oncor and PG&E meter accuracy testing
  13. 13. Customer Awareness and Engagement  The conversation needs to change from energy savings to value creation  Does the consumer care about a 10% monthly savings on electric bills?  Can we imagine new programs where consumers accrue value?  Create solutions to problems that people may not realize that they have  Ex: Apple iPod and digital music libraries  Participatory network for trading/selling both negawatts and energy  Ex: net metering for solar  What does this issue foreshadow for more advanced SG services?  TOU pricing, EV charging, etc.  The industry (not necessarily the consumer) needs to be prepared for imperfection  Rate of meter deployment increasing (PG&E 10x increase/day from 2007 to 2008)  Amount of new technology and systems is extensive
  14. 14. 2. Realizing the Network Infrastructure Foundation   Building a communications network infrastructure is a FOUNDATION for ALL smart grid applications and services   Building an AMI network is not enough   Distribution Automation is a critical application   Will overlay networks be acceptable and/or cost effective for different apps?   Physical layer networking “religion” arguments are misguiding the industry   There is no one network fits all solution (scale, coverage, performance & cost rule)   Different applications have different networking requirements   Different service areas and physical environments have different requirements   Standards are good but they do NOT translate to interoperability   “Based on IP” is an onion with many layers to peel back   Network segmentation and function is becoming better defined and more critical   Tiered networks will define smart grid communications platforms   Provisioning services across an entire network is critical   Centralized versus distributed network intelligence will dictate architecture   Many network technologies & architectures will prevail in evolving smart grids   Mesh, WiMAX/LTE, BPL, Licensed, Unlicensed, Public, Private   Telecom: FTTH, FTTC, EPON, GPON, ADSL, ADSL2+, VDSL, CWDM, DWDM, ATM, Frame Relay, IP, SONET, Carrier Ethernet, and the list goes on
  15. 15. Realizing the Network Infrastructure Foundation Source: GTM Research
  16. 16. 3. EV Growth Accelerating the Need for Smart Grids (SG and EVs: Is the tail wagging the dog?)   True EV scale is impossible without a networked grid in place   2010/11 EVs coming to market   Leaf priced at $25k (after fed tax credit)   Most major auto manufacturers delivering products to market   CA IOUs high-end estimate between 800k – 1M EVs by 2020   Major issues on the horizon   The load impacts of EVs are equivalent, or greater, to a home at peak  Nissan Leaf: 220V, 30 Amps = 6.6 kW  Chevy Volt: 240V, 16 Amps = 3.8kW   Infrastructure build-out (grid- and customer-level) to maintain safe, reliable electric services   The critical need for off-peak charging   Rate design for EVs (setting the right pricing scheme)   Offering the right products and services  Public networked charging stations, in-home 220V connections, etc.   Intersection of renewable energy and vehicle charging   Proper consumer education   Technology building blocks   Basic hardware, networking (all flavors), software (provisioning, authentication, applications, etc.)
  17. 17. EV Growth Accelerating the Need for Smart Grids Source: Nissan and PG&E
  18. 18. 4. The Convergence of Smart Grids and PV Source: GTM Research Source: GTM Research
  19. 19. The Convergence of Smart Grids and PV   Moving from a centralized architecture to a distributed architecture ALWAYS introduces massive opportunities for change, along with technical challenges   The “distributed utility” is on the horizon (aggregate distributed PV power plants)   Certain circuits in certain service areas are ALREADY facing >20% distributed PV penetration   What new technologies are necessary to accommodate this?   What is the EXACT % of PV penetration where issues begin to arise?   When will energy storage solutions be available at scale at acceptable price points?   Sensor and communications technologies are critical to scale distributed PV while maintaining grid stability and reliability   SG networks can manage voltage regulation, reverse power flow, power fluctuation, etc.   Inverters/microinverters and architectures (centralized/distributed) are evolving rapidly   Possibily to +/- both power and VAR   Inverter companies are exploring and developing expanded communications solutions   Microinverter companies are exploring home gateway/comms opportunities   A smart grid comms network could potentially provide the ability to forecast PV resources for capacity planning   Integration of GIS/weather
  20. 20. 5. The Growth and Future of Demand Response   Demand Response is rapidly evolving from wholesale markets to retail markets   Last Friday PJM procured a total of ~10GW in DR for 2013/14 capacity auction   Increase of 32% over last year   Recent DR Trends   More attention to the correlation of a smart grid and demand response  HANs are effectively trying to automate DR across smart appliances   Increased participation of consumers in demand response programs   More interest in multi-state and state-federal demand response working groups (FERC- NARUC) and new regulatory structures   More reliance on demand response in strategic plans and state plans  Act 129 in PA (3% reduction in electricity use / 4.5% reduction in peak demand by 2013)   Increased activity by third parties to aggregate retail demand response  Megawatts under management continues to grow for leading CSPs
  21. 21. The Growth and Future of Demand Response At Peak, DR is cheaper, faster and cleaner than adding a peaking power plant   The Future of Demand Response   Barclay’s Capital estimates DR market could hit $20B by 2020   Will demand response retail auctions emerge?   Will utilities leverage SG comm networks to cut out 3rd party CSPs?   Will consumers increasingly inquire about the market value of Source: GTM Research their negawatts?
  22. 22. Additional Important Trends and Topics   Management of the coming onslaught of data (MDM and beyond)   Integrated enterprise back-end systems not yet prepared   Smart grid security (physical/cyber) and consumer privacy   Applying NERC CIP, NIST 7268, etc.   HANs and consumer energy management (growth opportunity but nascent)   Physical layer communications and user applications/platforms   ARRA Funds Releasing   $204M to Duke Energy last week   Microgrids   Policy incentives and declining costs for distributed generation and storage   Financial incentives for negawatts and “M2G” (microgrid to grid)   PUCs Evolving   Examples: Act 129 in PA, SB 221 in OH, rate-based energy storage in TX, Phase I EV ruling in CA   Industry M&A   ABB/Ventyx, Cooper/Eka, Honeywell/Akuacom, SSN/Greenbox, EnerNOC/SmallFoot, Black & Veatch/Enspiria
  23. 23. Upcoming 2010 Conferences  Growth Opportunities Utility-Scale Solar  July 13th, San Francisco, Intersolar NA  PV Grid: The Convergence of Smart Grids and Solar  September, New York  The Networked EV: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles  November 9th, San Francisco, PG&E Auditorium
  24. 24. The Networked Grid 2011: Save the Date