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Greentech Media’s
2011 Solar Summit
From Polysilicon to Power:
                       The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond


                                           Greentech Media Solar Summit

                               Shayle Kann, Managing Director, Solar
                             Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst, Solar Markets




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Agenda
               Global PV Demand
                  2010 Recap
                  2011 Outlook
                  U.S. Market Focus

               Global PV Supply
                  The Industrial Age
                  Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks, Evolution, Revolution
                  Supply-Demand Dynamics
                  Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding
                  Supplier Competitive Positioning
                  Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Heading?

               Q&A




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Global PV Demand: A Series of Gold Rushes




            Source: GTM Research




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
                                                   4	
  
Germany in 2011? Look at 2010




         Source: Bundesnetzagentur, GTM Research

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Are Other Gold Rush Markets Brewing?




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
2011 and Beyond: Global Market Outlook




  Source: GTM Research                             Source: GTM Research


          Current 2011 estimate: 20.6 GW (17% growth), but significant uncertainty

          2012: flat given clamp-down of incentives in key FiT markets, followed by 12-20%
           growth in 2013-2015

          Key trend is demand diffusion
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
U.S. Market Focus




                    Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM: 2010 Year-in-Review




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
The Growing Importance of the U.S. Market




                  Source: GTM Research




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
                                                   9	
  
U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007




                                                            NJ	
  

                         NV	
  
                                                   CO	
  
               CA	
  




Source: GTM Research

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2010



                                                                                                               MA	
  
                  OR	
                                                                       NY	
  

                                                                                        PA	
          NJ	
  
                                                                               OH	
  
                           NV	
                                       IL	
  
                                                    CO	
  
                 CA	
                                                                    NC	
  

                                        AZ	
     NM	
  

                                                             TX	
  

                                                                                        FL	
  
                               HI	
  

Source: GTM Research

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
U.S. Market in 2010 - by State & Segment




            Pie Size Represents Total                        Residential
                                                   258.9
            Capacity Installed (MWdc)
                                                   MWdc
                                                           Non-Residential
          2.2
          MWdc                                                 Utility

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Will the Utility Market Take Over?




            Source: GTM Research




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
                                                   13	
  
U.S. Utility PV Project Developer Taxonomy	
  
                                                                               Foreign Entrants

                                                             European PV Developers




                                                                                                                Utility Affiliates
                       Vertically Integrated Manufacturers
   Upstream Entrants




                                                                                                                                               Traditional Entrants
                                                             Pure Play U.S. PV Developers




                                                                                                                 Independent Power Producers
                                                             Divisions    Joint Ventures
                                                             of Other
                                                             Corporate
                                                             Parents




                                                             Corporate
                                                             Entrants                             JV Entrants



COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go




         Source:	
  DOE,	
  GTM	
  Research	
  


COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
                                                   15	
  
How a PV Module is Born

               Polysilicon                         Wafer   Cell   Module




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
PV Enters the Industrial Age
   Factories w/capacity above 1 GW
     2009: 1 wafer, 1 cell, 1 module
     2013: 22 wafer, 15 cell, 11 module

     Vertically integrated wafer-cell-
      module facility is dominant model
      of the “gigawatt fab”

     Distributed module assembly
      model still favored by many

     Polysilicon: Absence of sustained
      bottleneck, capital risk, technical
      challenges  limited instances of
      integration

     How important is downstream
      integration at this scale?


COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks
   China Vertically Integrated (wafer-module) Crystalline Si
   Polysilicon                         Wafer       Cell           Module



      $0.42/W                         $0.28/W      $0.23/W         $0.30/W              $1.23/W



   $60/kg at 7g/Wp, low-cost location, 750 MW scale, full utilization, 14% efficiency

    CdTe (First Solar)
    Materials                     Depreciation      Labor      Utilities, Overhead



        $0.47/W                        $0.11/W     $0.06/W          $0.11/W             $0.75/W



    Low-cost location, 1 GW scale, 90%+ yield, high throughput, full utilization,
    11.5% efficiency
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Manufacturing Costs: Evolution
     Need to distinguish b/w
      incremental improvements
      (current technology) vs. step-
      function reduction (innovation)

     Incremental drivers:
               Cheaper poly (~$35/kg)
               Thinner wafers (~145 ųm)
               Efficiency up (~15%)
               Vertical integration (wafer-module)
               Scale-up (2 GW+)


     Threats to cost reductions:
               Poly bottlenecks
               Commodity prices (Al, Ag, glass)
               Cost/efficiency trade-offs


     When does existing technology
      hit a plateau?
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Manufacturing Costs: Revolution
   What technologies could drive step-
      function cost reductions in $/kWh?
   Polysilicon
               FBR (MEMC, REC)
               UMG (CaliSolar)
   Wafer
               Diamond saws
               Ultra-thin wafers (< 100 ųm)
               Kerfless wafering (SiGen, 1366)
   Cell
               N-type (Yingli, Suniva)
               Ion implantation (Suniva)
               Back-contact (Trina)
               Selective emitter (Solarfun, Schott)
               Other (PERL, EWT, MWT, Silicon ink)
   Module
               High-efficiency glass (Corning)
               Ultra-thin/reflective encapsulant (DuPont)
               Glass-free front sheet (Saint-Gobain)

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Supply-Demand Dynamics
     Wafer/cell – need to distinguish
      between low-cost and high-
      cost supply; module – bankable
      supply vs. other

     Acute undersupply of low-cost
      cells, wafers, and bankable low-
      cost modules in 2010; likely to
      continue in H1 2011 and gate
      demand; pricing, availability will
      be tight

     H2 2011 more uncertain, but
      likely to see price drops, higher
      availability of modules

     2012: The return of oversupply?
      Price reductions required to
      trigger demand elasticity?

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding
      2010 TF production: 1,454 MW CdTe,
       1,543 MW a-Si, 395 MW CIGS/CIS

      Stable c-Si pricing, strong demand drive
       high utilizations, cost reductions at 25-75
       MW capacity

      Multiple hurdles to cross to scale
       successfully:
                Process optimized for high yield/throughput
                Capital for expansion
                Downstream partners
                Product reliability (product bankability)
                 Financing partners (supplier bankability)


      Who will drive the market?
                CdTe: First Solar, Abound, GE
                CIGS: Solar Frontier, Solibro, ~7 U.S.
                 manufacturers
                Amorphous Si: Sharp, ~20 Chinese producers
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Supplier Competitive Positioning

                                                                               Canadian, Jinko,
                                                   Solar Frontier   SunPower
                                         Trina,                                Hanwha
                                         Yingli              Suntech                         Sharp (tandem)

                                 First
                                 Solar




                                                                                  REC (Singapore)




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
                                                                                                 23	
  
Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Headed?
                                                   2013




                                                          P   Polysilicon   	
     W    	
  	
  
                                                                                       c -­‐Si	
  Wafer   	
     C     	
  	
   	
  
                                                                                                                      c -­‐Si	
  Cell   M      c-­‐Si	
  Module   	
  
                                                              CdTe   	
                CIGS        	
                Amorphous	
  Si    	
        i	
     Inverter       	
  

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
Thank You!
            Email:
             kann@gtmresearch.com
             mehta@gtmresearch.com

            GTM Research:
             www.gtmresearch.com

            SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar
             Market Insight:
             www.gtmresearch.com/solarinsight




COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!

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From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond

  • 2. From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond Greentech Media Solar Summit Shayle Kann, Managing Director, Solar Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst, Solar Markets COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 3. Agenda   Global PV Demand   2010 Recap   2011 Outlook   U.S. Market Focus   Global PV Supply   The Industrial Age   Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks, Evolution, Revolution   Supply-Demand Dynamics   Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding   Supplier Competitive Positioning   Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Heading?   Q&A COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 4. Global PV Demand: A Series of Gold Rushes Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 4  
  • 5. Germany in 2011? Look at 2010 Source: Bundesnetzagentur, GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 6. Are Other Gold Rush Markets Brewing? COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 7. 2011 and Beyond: Global Market Outlook Source: GTM Research Source: GTM Research   Current 2011 estimate: 20.6 GW (17% growth), but significant uncertainty   2012: flat given clamp-down of incentives in key FiT markets, followed by 12-20% growth in 2013-2015   Key trend is demand diffusion COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 8. U.S. Market Focus Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM: 2010 Year-in-Review COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 9. The Growing Importance of the U.S. Market Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 9  
  • 10. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007 NJ   NV   CO   CA   Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 11. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2010 MA   OR   NY   PA   NJ   OH   NV   IL   CO   CA   NC   AZ   NM   TX   FL   HI   Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 12. U.S. Market in 2010 - by State & Segment Pie Size Represents Total Residential 258.9 Capacity Installed (MWdc) MWdc Non-Residential 2.2 MWdc Utility COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 13. Will the Utility Market Take Over? Source: GTM Research COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 13  
  • 14. U.S. Utility PV Project Developer Taxonomy   Foreign Entrants European PV Developers Utility Affiliates Vertically Integrated Manufacturers Upstream Entrants Traditional Entrants Pure Play U.S. PV Developers Independent Power Producers Divisions Joint Ventures of Other Corporate Parents Corporate Entrants JV Entrants COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 15. Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go Source:  DOE,  GTM  Research   COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 15  
  • 16. How a PV Module is Born Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 17. PV Enters the Industrial Age Factories w/capacity above 1 GW   2009: 1 wafer, 1 cell, 1 module   2013: 22 wafer, 15 cell, 11 module   Vertically integrated wafer-cell- module facility is dominant model of the “gigawatt fab”   Distributed module assembly model still favored by many   Polysilicon: Absence of sustained bottleneck, capital risk, technical challenges  limited instances of integration   How important is downstream integration at this scale? COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 18. Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks China Vertically Integrated (wafer-module) Crystalline Si Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module $0.42/W $0.28/W $0.23/W $0.30/W $1.23/W $60/kg at 7g/Wp, low-cost location, 750 MW scale, full utilization, 14% efficiency CdTe (First Solar) Materials Depreciation Labor Utilities, Overhead $0.47/W $0.11/W $0.06/W $0.11/W $0.75/W Low-cost location, 1 GW scale, 90%+ yield, high throughput, full utilization, 11.5% efficiency COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 19. Manufacturing Costs: Evolution   Need to distinguish b/w incremental improvements (current technology) vs. step- function reduction (innovation)   Incremental drivers:   Cheaper poly (~$35/kg)   Thinner wafers (~145 ųm)   Efficiency up (~15%)   Vertical integration (wafer-module)   Scale-up (2 GW+)   Threats to cost reductions:   Poly bottlenecks   Commodity prices (Al, Ag, glass)   Cost/efficiency trade-offs   When does existing technology hit a plateau? COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 20. Manufacturing Costs: Revolution What technologies could drive step- function cost reductions in $/kWh? Polysilicon   FBR (MEMC, REC)   UMG (CaliSolar) Wafer   Diamond saws   Ultra-thin wafers (< 100 ųm)   Kerfless wafering (SiGen, 1366) Cell   N-type (Yingli, Suniva)   Ion implantation (Suniva)   Back-contact (Trina)   Selective emitter (Solarfun, Schott)   Other (PERL, EWT, MWT, Silicon ink) Module   High-efficiency glass (Corning)   Ultra-thin/reflective encapsulant (DuPont)   Glass-free front sheet (Saint-Gobain) COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 21. Supply-Demand Dynamics   Wafer/cell – need to distinguish between low-cost and high- cost supply; module – bankable supply vs. other   Acute undersupply of low-cost cells, wafers, and bankable low- cost modules in 2010; likely to continue in H1 2011 and gate demand; pricing, availability will be tight   H2 2011 more uncertain, but likely to see price drops, higher availability of modules   2012: The return of oversupply? Price reductions required to trigger demand elasticity? COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 22. Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding   2010 TF production: 1,454 MW CdTe, 1,543 MW a-Si, 395 MW CIGS/CIS   Stable c-Si pricing, strong demand drive high utilizations, cost reductions at 25-75 MW capacity   Multiple hurdles to cross to scale successfully:   Process optimized for high yield/throughput   Capital for expansion   Downstream partners   Product reliability (product bankability)   Financing partners (supplier bankability)   Who will drive the market?   CdTe: First Solar, Abound, GE   CIGS: Solar Frontier, Solibro, ~7 U.S. manufacturers   Amorphous Si: Sharp, ~20 Chinese producers COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 23. Supplier Competitive Positioning Canadian, Jinko, Solar Frontier SunPower Trina, Hanwha Yingli Suntech Sharp (tandem) First Solar REC (Singapore) COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! 23  
  • 24. Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Headed? 2013 P Polysilicon   W     c -­‐Si  Wafer   C       c -­‐Si  Cell M c-­‐Si  Module   CdTe   CIGS   Amorphous  Si   i   Inverter   COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!
  • 25. Thank You!   Email: kann@gtmresearch.com mehta@gtmresearch.com   GTM Research: www.gtmresearch.com   SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight: www.gtmresearch.com/solarinsight COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!