The document summarizes the state of the US solar industry in 2011. It describes the bankruptcies and plant closures faced by solar manufacturers that year due to oversupply. It also discusses the trade petition filed alleging that Chinese solar companies were dumping products at unfair prices, and the potential impacts of duties. Additionally, it outlines key questions around the future of federal and state incentives and how they could impact industry trends in 2012.

1. The U.S. Solar Industry: Story Behind the
Headlines
Shayle Kann
Managing Director, Solar
GTM Research
U.S. Solar Market Insight
November 16, 2011
OR – Day 67 A.S.
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

2. 2011 Has Been a Tough Year For Solar Manufacturers
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

3. The Fall-Out in the U.S.
Bankruptcies
Plant Closures
Media
(Over)Reaction
Trade War
Vs.
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4. Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts
Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the
entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

5. Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts
Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the
entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

6. Trade Petition – Near-Term Questions
• Timing – 1603 vs. Potential Duties
• Q4 Shipment Boom – Bigger or Smaller?
• Financing and Redesign for Late-Stage Projects
• Will Suppliers Take on the Duty Risk?
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

7. The Growing Importance of the U.S. End Market
Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

8. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007
NJ
NV
CO
CA
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

9. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2011E
MA
OR NY
PA NJ
OH DE
NV
MD
CO
CA NC
TN
AZ NM
TX
FL
HI
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

10. The Latest Installation Numbers
Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

11. Non-Residential Market In a State of Flux
Source: GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

12. U.S. Residential Solar Lease Landscape
Tax Third-Party Finance Providers Residential Module Suppliers
Equity Finance w/ Subcontracted Integrators/Finance w/ Residential
Providers Providers Installations Providers Lease Programs
Source: GTM Research

13. The Spectrum of Possibilities for 2012
Module Pricing Project Financing State Market Dynamics
Global NY Solar Growth in
Oversupply Increased
Jobs Act TX, MO,
Tax Equity
from IL, PR
Corporates, NJ: S2371
Drivers
New Entrants
PA: HB 1580
Global Chinese 1603 Cash State
Tax Equity New Market
Supply/Demand Cell /Module Grant Legislatio
Supply Development
Balance Import Duty Extension n
Constraints
Small Duty;
Chinese
Suppliers OH RPS
Remain Roll-Back
Active
Tax Equity CSI Funding
Global
Large Duty; Bottleneck, Depletion
Undersupply
Disappearanc Rates >15%-
e of Chinese 17%
Suppliers
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

14. Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go
Source: EIA, GTM Research
Source: DOE, GTM Research
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

15. Thank You!
Shayle Kann
Managing Director, Solar
GTM Research
Email: kann@gtmresearch.com
www.gtmresearch.com
U.S. Solar Market Insight Reports U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker
COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED