Exhibit 1Toro SNo Risk ProgramExhibit 1Product787979808081818.docx

Exhibit 1Toro S'No Risk ProgramExhibit
1Product78/7979/8080/8181/8282/8383/84Power Shovels-
107,213107,89656,98189,11468,141Single-
Stage426,425367,253124,615111,472102,718110,564Two-
Stage53,70073,48317,33519,68318,37431,702Toro Company
S'No Risk Program 9-185-017Copyright 1984 by the President
and Fellows of Harvard College
Exhibit 3Toro S'No Risk ProgramExhibit
31983198219811980197919781977197619751974Operating
DataNet
sales$240,966$203,761$247,049$399,771$357,766$223,853$15
3,910$129,978$131,626$114,592Earnings (loss):Earnings (loss)
from continuing
operations$106$(8,699)$(12,595)$5,679$17,717$11,733$5,669$
3,703$1,809$4,572Percent of sales-
(4.3)%(5.1)%1.4%5.0%5.2%3.7%2.8%1.4%4.0%Per common
share and common stock
equivalent$(.27)$(1.86)$(2.57)$0.97$3.18$2.18$1.08$0.72$0.36
$0.92Net earnings
(loss)$572$(8,699)$(13,068)$5,272$17,126$11,085$5,589$4,40
3$2,480$5,345Per common share and common stock
equivalent$(.19)$(1.86)$(2.66)$0.90$3.07$2.06$1.07$0.86$0.50
$1.07Dividends:On common stock
outstanding$0$0$1,825$4,861$3,670$2,035$1,497$1,286$1,234
$1,091Per common share--
$0.33$0.88$0.68$0.39$0.29$0.26$0.25$0.22Return
on:Beginning common shareholders'
equity(2.6)%(19.3)%(21.1)%7.2%31.5%24.5%14.0%12.1%7.1%
17.3%Average common shareholders'
equity(2.4)%(21.4)%(23.9)%7.2%27.6%22.6%13.4%11.9%7.0%
16.6%Summary of Financial PositionCurrent
assets$92,662$89,606$99,678$123,180$139,207$107,189$73,23
4$65,718$74,516$61,063Current
liabilities$38,925$43,107$37,635$42,676$68,040$50,022$26,64

0$22,583$35,692$20,172Net working
capital$53,737$46,499$62,043$80,504$71,167$57,167$46,594$
43,135$38,824$40,891Non-current
assets$58,547$60,553$57,353$60,410$38,406$25,817$21,674$1
9,183$20,061$11,462Total
assets$151,209$150,159$157,031$183,590$177,613$133,006$9
4,908$84,901$94,577$72,525Non-current
liabilities$2,167$1,311$1,488$816$591-----CapitalizationLong-
term
debt$41,858$47,414$49,288$55,315$39,250$28,650$23,100$22,
344$22,500$17,210Redeemable preferred
stock$14,829$14,829$14,830$14,830------Common
shareholders'
equity$53,430$43,498$53,790$69,953$69,732$54,334$45,168$3
9,974$36,385$35,143Total
capitalization$110,117$105,741$117,908$140,098$108,982$82,
984$68,268$62,318$58,885$52,353Book value per common
share8.047.779.6412.6512.6310.268.577.977.377.12Stock
DataNumber of common shares outstanding (in
thousands)6,6495,5975,5795,5285,5215,2985,2725,0164,9364,9
36Number of
shareholders4,2224,5284,4844,1573,3452,6592,6792,1882,1271,
921Low bid
price5.3755.6259.12512.62516.2506.5005.8755.2504.0003.500
High bid
price13.8759.25019.87524.37529.12516.1257.2508.6256.5008.2
50Toro Company S'No Risk Program 9-185-017Copyright 1984
by the President and Fellows of Harvard College
Exhibit 6-augmentedExhibit 6Toro S'No Risk ProgramActual
SnowfallActual Sales (at retail value) before 12/10S'no Risk
Refund (pro forma)StationAverageReporting
StationCodeSnowfall79/8080/8181/8282/8383/84*84/85*798081
8279/8080/8181/8282/83*selected stations onlyHanover,
NH64.0N/AN/A68.042.562.360.8Ithaca,
NY83.440.352.064.947.274.449.5Blue Canyon,
CA004241.6232.5146.4N/A385.786,02840,25714,07151,386Col

orado Springs,
CO00640.672.618.234.436.3281,457110,47131,90031,75755,23
6Denver,
CO00759.185.545.126.781.62,428,8291,302,086342,171242,671
171,085Grand Junction,
CO00926.121.95.915.414.811,1577,2143,8572,1005,050Pueblo,
CO01330.542.616.8N/A22.321,02823,4003,3713,471Bridgeport,
CT01626.19.611.519.723.0571,643168,70090,214288,243342,98
684,350Hartford,
CT01750.416.417.756.446.4608,886257,400117,957376,900365,
332154,440National Airport,
DC01817.220.14.522.5N/A145,17125,90016,01442,54318,130P
ocatello,
ID02140.735.529.766.458.5149,22852,14331,429117,914Chicag
o-O'Hare,
IL02240.441.635.059.326.638.427.139,074,0003,989,3141,673,
8293,838,900Moline,
IL02530.837.018.945.324.82,382,029386,529175,128132,857Pe
oria,
IL02625.627.523.846.919.11,307,529179,21462,81486,757Rock
ford,
IL02835.033.921.141.028.01,967,143166,41459,857169,829Spri
ngfield,
IL02924.730.517.550.410.4836,843190,27195,186404,129202,0
64Evansville,
IN03013.916.33.415.04.175,9718,9863,8864,3006,2903,010Fort
Wayne,
IN03133.228.735.781.214.9610,571225,20083,900582,086291,0
43Indianapolis,
IN03322.924.817.358.27.141.927.81,360,586312,17178,000783,
229469,937South Bend,
IN03672.366.485.0135.235.32,654,286423,557210,986499,7002
49,850Des Moines,
IA03833.823.320.462.951.52,243,914399,671288,057285,557Du
buque,
IA03943.536.021.7N/A21.4488,71470,44331,40066,84333,432S

ioux City,
IA04330.921.717.156.859.5228,60052,37151,80062,329Waterlo
o,
IA04531.428.221.939.938.9561,243146,51490,228120,243Conc
ord,
KS04621.628.36.420.634.6165,34365,15714,3299,38639,094Do
dge City,
KS04718.935.611.819.233.038,44319,5572,7296,100Goodland,
KS04835.9102.041.824.448.22,20082,228529Topeka,
KS04921.118.38.913.427.462,81424,05715,6439,74312,029Wic
hita,
KS05015.212.73.113.925.2106,60079,01416,88623,057Lexingto
n, KY05416.420.53.712.68.010,0142,371-
1,0571,660528Louisville,
KY05517.718.32.911.05.29,7283,6142,1003,3713,6142,360Cari
bou,
ME058113.170.6122.9158.882.9261,37168,72929,571106,843Po
rtland,
ME06072.927.538.885.345.31,043,600270,500130,500512,6576
26,160Baltimore,
MD06221.714.64.625.535.641,81412,2003,81418,1578,540Bost
on,
MA06342.012.722.361.832.7775,800258,186346,457900,04346
5,480Worcester,
MA06470.426.643.073.963.4163,68689,41467,000170,68698,21
2Alpena,
MI06584.678.282.189.373.7178,90046,3719,34332,057Detroit,
MI06640.726.938.474.020.051.855.15,353,0001,256,3861,016,1
144,111,600Flint,
MI06745.339.736.462.233.61,128,657321,429171,686224,557Gr
and Rapids,
MI06874.148.551.574.535.92,951,729490,286257,271477,52923
8,764Houghton Lake,
MI06981.859.374.498.751.5914,086191,629132,286297,357Lan
sing,
MI07048.834.738.762.133.52,821,128507,529276,171999,529M

arquette,
MI071114.0146.1176.1243.8199.3230,87134,21414,05714,843
Muskegon,
MI07298.475.4107.6173.935.52,888,143471,800348,071600,957
360,574Sault Ste. Marie,
MI073113.8108.1141.7168.687.074,95719,3716,00026,486Dulut
h,
MN07676.755.136.595.796.5351,057106,47166,386190,88653,2
36International Falls,
MN07761.064.245.889.946.051,94314,6145,07122,586Minneap
olis/St. Paul,
MN07847.453.321.195.074.44,379,9431,160,014926,057982,87
1580,007Rochester,
MN08045.655.225.662.762.6401,957144,143115,129114,514St.
Cloud,
MN08143.844.216.555.453.3682,971208,114120,442231,32912
4,868Columbia,
MO08323.431.117.631.94.020,6867,3718573,5713,571Kansas
City,
MO08420.123.510.229.423.41,258,214437,471163,500174,0148
83Springfield,
MO08516.624.718.224.65.614,07111,9002,2001,471St. Louis,
MO08620.025.618.136.67.41,211,214269,14361,771777,229466
,337Billings,
MT08757.359.265.963.149.2125,20024,17114,4579,100Glasgow
, MT08927.617.117.142.030.414,6294,9571,1424,086Great
Falls,
MT09058.334.339.2100.345.681,60013,97115,08622,443Havre,
MT09146.019.826.2N/A38.19,6431,5294291,5714,822Helena,
MT09248.340.316.956.739.0178,686109,30023,157103,90076,5
10Kalispell,
MT09366.765.150.266.244.798,10039,04312,32816,743Miles
City,
MT09431.111.66.921.529.621,3431,0422,72912,10012,806729
Missoula,
MT09549.454.714.469.324.265,34330,2716,74319,44321,1909,7

22Grand Island,
NE09630.036.819.236.740.2106,07150,20020,88646,429Lincoln
,
NE09728.023.313.032.338.0177,71474,07137,75785,78637,036
Norfolk,
NE09829.822.210.147.151.6113,84331,92913,45738,20019,157
North Platte,
NE09930.666.33.925.125.765,44336,04319,30015,91436,043Om
aha,
NE10031.020.59.124.331.539.919.01,006,714506,957144,81416
4,514354,870Scottsbluff,
NE10138.878.521.515.745.255,14324,6146,7572,0143,378Valen
tine, NE10231.253.316.447.918.916,64311,6859572,000Reno,
NV10325.722.06.126.023.849,51726,11412,57127,67118,280Co
ncord,
NH10464.827.054.790.038.7491,314189,985110,486436,843245
,657Newark,
NJ10628.114.319.530.831.062,3287,9715,0868,143Albany,
NY10765.127.444.997.175.01,016,000405,129188,243436,2715
08,000Binghampton,
NY10884.556.859.381.681.0413,443170,64354,57153,186Buffal
o,
NY10992.568.460.9112.452.44,803,4141,208,386533,229558,44
3Laguardia,
NY11226.010.316.125.630.23,002,686620,871573,629885,7291,
801,612Rochester,
NY11589.772.294.4128.459.71,296,071232,343171,500121,143
Syracuse,
NY116110.793.479.0137.166.01,044,314247,971118,757103,68
6Bismarck,
ND11939.726.611.780.332.2145,90023,00017,40051,32916,100
Fargo,
ND12135.839.913.169.523.2599,78689,11459,28682,37153,468
Williston,
ND12438.125.419.170.442.3101,31414,82912,24231,071Akron/
Canton,

OH12548.534.252.361.738.81,242,429221,329193,457257,300C
incinnati,
OH12724.530.114.024.266.0597,486312,08654,100220,900154,
630Cleveland,
OH12853.338.760.5100.538.02,434,443669,871521,8141,032,21
4Columbus,
OH12928.416.630.135.111.51,372,500255,700120,842176,8868
8,443Dayton,
OH13029.024.919.642.95.52,120,229588,600191,371305,41430
5,414Mansfield,
OH13242.527.643.466.916.6244,28675,48635,78658,31434,988
Toledo,
OH13438.717.537.768.212.2861,571302,571213,7431,376,1434
30,786825,686Youngstown,
OH13556.332.849.162.139.4856,971243,286213,486121,157All
entown,
PA13632.221.925.543.945.8451,58683,35743,829134,557Avoca
-Wilkes Barre,
PA13749.925.540.559.659.1228,286159,60067,671137,114Erie,
PA13882.455.289.471.341.2793,786114,329129,52949,257Harri
sburg,
PA13935.414.624.936.035.4767,800127,92968,857216,943383,9
00Philadelphia,
PA14121.720.915.425.437.9818,343180,88693,300129,843Pitts
burgh,
PA14245.024.148.045.130.16,172,600949,771434,143484,043W
illiamsport,
PA14343.620.541.654.517.697,47146,84318,95796,95748,73648
,479Providence,
RI14437.212.221.547.432.4115,17135,52954,271223,02969,103
3,120Aberdeen,
SD14536.128.88.3N/A18.921,4864,4571,2717,8439,010Huron,
SD14638.522.210.459.727.314,85712,87110,7434,8143,272Rapi
d City,
SD14738.029.216.934.824.911,9006,5434,7425,58626,830Sioux
Falls,

SD14838.829.210.842.470.598,37138,32921,32828,957Salt
Lake City,
UT15158.161.630.257.855.8513,829389,157529434,557Burlingt
on,
VT15477.639.664.781.580.5147,57144,271154,086100,071Norf
olk, VA1568.241.90.36.13.4-032,900529265Richmond,
VA15714.638.61.021.229.45283,2575284,9293,257Roanoke,
VA15824.631.811.830.935.08,1573,7572,0002,6711,879Spokan
e,
WA15951.638.314.247.436.6732,214363,02984,000164,171254,
120Walla Walla, WA16020.127.85.413.53.916,4436,771-
5294,739529Yakima,
WA16124.847.612.028.221.911,71417,7861,61410,0008,893Gre
en Bay,
WI16344.838.130.254.039.7769,171199,54363,529118,886La
Crosse,
WI16442.232.021.836.137.1777,100220,07183,786185,114Madi
son,
WI16540.431.026.550.041.42,506,143406,871242,414262,643M
ilwaukee,
WI16647.047.041.967.238.19,253,1431,703,529786,3001,035,2
86Casper,
WY16877.9101.256.968.7151.6108,08647,67111,00013,829Che
yenne,
WY16952.7121.527.626.9101.098,44368,04315,00016,057Land
er,
WY170104.0124.467.641.8165.778,21433,91412,91414,086Sher
idan,
WY17270.075.846.758.966.237,10013,6437,20014,7006,457Ave
rages47.242.133.557.444.651.539.9135,231,42627,276,11414,04
7,76330,024,217Percent Increase over Prior Yr.-20.6%71.5%-
22.3%15.5%-22.5%-79.8%-
48.5%113.7%Rebates5,403,5922,150,357180,9205,846,299Reba
tes as % of
Sales4.0%7.9%1.3%19.5%Season/Year79/8080/8181/8282/8383
/84*84/85*79808182Toro Company S'No Risk Program 9-185-

017Copyright 1984 by the President and Fellows of Harvard
College(other weather data added to Exhibit 6)
Averages for '83 - '85 beow only include spreadsheet data.
BostonSnowBoston MA Monthly Snowfall
DataYearJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMarchAprilMayJunetot
alRelTotal1871-720000T12.33.411.317.300044.31.0301872-
7300000.323.711.68.35.2TT049.11.1411873-
7400007.513.720.322.73.928.30096.42.2411874-
750000T5.710.40.327.36.30050.01.1621875-
760000T1.10.53.7TT005.30.1231876-
7700000.39.017.5T7.9T0034.70.8071877-
78000TT0.814.312.6T00027.70.6441878-
7900000.31.218.220.74.7T0045.11.0481879-
8000006.018.63.211.49.600048.81.1341880-
8100000.819.220.59.00.14.20053.81.2501881-
8200001.5T15.417.95.600040.50.9411882-
83000010.06.09.69.04.300038.90.9041883-
840000T24.41.112.515.09.50062.51.4531884-
850000.54.82.33.93.39.5T0024.30.5651885-
8600000.55.526.04.04.5T0040.50.9411886-
870000018.516.012.011.515.00073.01.6971887-
880000T6.513.19.612.0TT041.20.9581888-
8900004.804.57.52.200019.00.4421889-
900000T4.08.56.320.300039.10.9091890-
910000T14.514.813.816.2T0059.31.3781891-
92000T0T12.011.520.000043.51.0111892-
9300003.02.014.635.34.57.90067.31.5641893-
9400000.418.515.021.6T8.50064.01.4871894-
9500006.713.513.98.83.80.50047.21.0971895-
960000T5.29.59.514.50.20038.90.9041896-
9700002.28.618.210.93.3T0043.21.0041897-
9800008.17.816.311.56.02.20051.91.2061898-
99000017.87.76.130.29.3T0071.11.6531899-
00000T0.1T8.39.07.60T025.00.5811900-
0100000.10.87.88.8T00017.50.4071901-
020000012.611.013.07.5T0044.11.0251902-

03000TT22.84.214.70.3T0042.00.976Data
Series:1.0mean0.99999999999999981903-
040000010.635.716.58.91.40073.11.699Chi-squared p-
value:0.09474208473500115std0.44450488529901141904-
05000TT12.021.38.03.6T0044.91.044Distribution:1.01905-
060000T3.56.16.121.9T0037.60.874Best fit:Normal1906-
0700001.115.516.125.56.63.1T067.91.5781907-
08000007.04.39.34.80.80026.20.609Normal0.094742084735001
151908-
090000T3.511.22.33.100020.10.467Lognormal0.0579813500302
81131909-10000TT12.311.912.60.200037.00.8601910-
1100001.48.20.719.53.17.70040.60.9441911-
1200000.33.717.80.29.10.50031.60.7341912-
1300000.39.20.37.70.51.40019.40.4511913-
140000.4T0.910.320.65.22.00039.40.9161914-
15000TT4.17.05.1T6.10022.30.5181915-
1600000.26.74.830.333.04.20079.21.8411916-
1700000.79.513.18.912.99.1T054.21.2601917-
1800002.27.013.85.712.84.20045.71.0621918-
190000T8.44.16.22.4T0021.10.4901919-
2000000.22.924.832.511.02.0T073.41.7061920-
2100001.85.53.623.2TT0034.10.7931921-
2200001.64.42.715.510.13.30037.60.8741922-
2300000.914.728.014.310.6T0068.51.5921923-
240000T3.08.510.47.43.00032.30.7511924-
2500000.50.220.7TTT0021.40.4971925-
26000TT0.57.427.62.8T0038.30.8901926-
270000T24.216.119.20.60.20060.31.4011927-
2800000.5T5.18.76.5T0020.80.4831928-
29000T1.44.613.521.44.00.60045.51.0581929-
3000003.010.67.79.50.6T0031.40.7301930-
31000T0.17.711.714.07.3T0040.80.9481931-
320000T1.46.210.85.8T0024.20.5621932-
330000T8.61.320.65.15.00040.60.9441933-
3400002.915.60.832.910.5T0062.71.4571934-
35000TT1.626.713.12.11.90045.41.0551935-

3600001.00.312.712.62.9T0029.50.6861936-
3700004.40.72.0T1.9T009.00.2091937-
3800000.34.629.610.00.30.90045.71.0621938-
39000010.01.37.54.716.50.20040.20.9341939-
4000001.06.54.623.80.31.50037.70.8761940-
41000T8.54.520.41.313.10T047.81.1111941-
42000TT0.28.26.27.91.50024.00.5581942-
430000T6.826.44.58.0T0045.71.0621943-
440000T0.35.19.612.7T0027.70.6441944-
4500001.26.924.326.30.50T059.21.3761945-
4600004.924.69.89.80.21.50050.81.1811946-
470000T4.94.09.00.90.60019.40.4511947-
4800001.126.832.517.011.800089.22.0731948-
4900001.15.513.76.99.900037.10.8621949-
5000001.42.37.915.25.1T0031.90.7411950-
510000T2.713.99.23.900029.70.6901951-
520000T8.410.719.11.400039.60.9201952-
53000TT2.413.611.40.22.2T029.80.6931953-
540000TT19.21.90.42.10023.60.5491954-
550000T10.30.96.57.00.40025.10.5831955-
5600002.51.87.714.531.23.20060.91.4151956-
5700000.615.420.62.811.51.10052.01.2091957-
58000T0.1T6.623.912.02.1T044.71.0391958-
5900000.14.64.110.714.6T0034.10.7931959-
6000000.65.510.22.322.3T0040.90.9511960-
61000TT16.918.714.99.02.00061.51.4291961-
62000T0.911.42.528.71.10.10044.71.0391962-
63000T0.95.36.54.613.6T0030.90.7181963-
64000T017.714.423.27.7T0063.01.4641964-
65000TT12.222.24.79.71.60050.41.1711965-
660000T2.326.412.13.3TT044.11.0251966-
67000009.90.523.522.93.3T060.11.3971967-
6800002.214.717.73.46.800044.81.0411968-
6900000.45.10.941.36.1T0053.81.2501969-
70000TT12.67.410.518.20.10048.81.1341970-
71000TT27.912.08.17.41.90057.31.3321971-

7200002.87.97.816.512.10.40047.51.1041972-
73000T0.63.33.62.50.3T0010.30.2391973-
7400000T16.017.80.13.00036.90.8581974-
7500002.03.62.217.01.81.00027.60.6411975-
76000T0.119.315.01.410.8T0046.61.0831976-
7700001.017.223.25.910.7T0.5058.51.3601977-
7800000.75.235.927.216.1T0085.11.9781978-
7900004.25.810.56.6T0.40027.50.6391979-
800000.2T2.00.46.53.6T0012.70.2951980-
8100002.45.611.91.90.500022.30.5181981-
820000T17.618.07.65.313.30061.81.4361982-
830000T5.54.722.30.2T0032.70.7601983-
840000T2.621.10.319.0T0043.00.9991984-
850000T3.77.010.23.72.00026.60.6181985-
8600003.01.30.810.42.6T0018.10.4211986-
8700003.53.424.33.73.54.10042.50.9881987-
8800009.07.517.014.15.0T0052.61.2231988-
89000T03.71.56.73.20.40015.50.3601989-
9000004.56.27.016.94.10.50039.20.9111990-
910000T1.211.72.83.400019.10.4441991-
920000T5.80.44.010.81.00022.00.5111992-
9300000.69.712.919.638.92.20083.91.9501993-
940000T11.633.736.214.800096.32.2381994-
950T000.11.54.48.50.4T0014.90.3461995-
9600004.124.139.815.516.87.300107.62.5011996-
9700001.85.09.74.85.222.40048.91.13743.02539682539684
KansasCitySnowKansas City MO Monthly Snowfall
DataSEP.OCT.NOV.DEC.JAN.FEB.MAR.APR.MAYTotal1997/
19980.01.00.510.91996/19970.06.54.80.59.86.30.01.30.029.21.3
9903296703296731995/19960.00.00.75.311.4Tr0.71.00.019.10.
91512087912087941994/19950.00.00.02.51.30.72.4Tr0.06.90.3
30593406593406641993/19940.00.00.52.71.410.30.52.60.018.0
0.86241758241758261992/19930.0Tr4.10.812.015.71.10.60.034
.31.64338461538461541991/19920.00.04.60.2Tr2.00.52.80.010.
10.483912087912087951990/19910.00.01.71.612.1Tr1.2Tr0.016
.60.79534065934065961989/19900.00.0Tr6.81.02.19.60.00.019.

50.93428571428571441988/19890.00.00.10.10.26.5Tr0.00.06.9
0.330593406593406641987/19880.0Tr2.011.90.99.32.20.00.026
.31.26008791208791231986/19870.0Tr0.61.210.55.0Tr0.00.017.
30.82887912087912111985/19860.00.03.55.4Tr4.5TrTr0.013.40
.64202197802197811984/19850.00.00.47.011.86.90.30.00.026.4
1.2648791208791211983/19840.00.00.713.21.30.58.70.00.024.4
1.16905494505494521982/19830.00.00.50.76.37.41.37.20.023.4
1.12114285714285721981/19820.00.00.15.36.012.74.01.30.029.
41.40861538461538481980/19810.0TrTr3.24.02.90.10.00.010.2
0.488703296703296761979/19800.00.0TrTr5.412.75.40.00.023.
51.12593406593406621978/19790.00.00.211.713.31.54.72.00.0
33.41.60026373626373641977/19780.00.0Tr1.23.911.40.00.00.
016.50.79054945054945071976/19770.0Tr0.80.214.20.3Tr0.60.
016.10.77138461538461561975/19760.00.07.12.85.25.21.50.00.
021.81.04448351648351671974/19750.00.01.41.25.44.65.92.30.
020.80.99657142857142881973/19740.00.0Tr8.04.80.30.50.30.
013.90.66597802197802211972/19730.00.03.63.110.90.30.01.3
0.019.20.9199120879120881971/19720.00.00.21.03.02.93.3Tr0.
010.40.49828571428571441970/19710.00.00.03.61.38.27.40.00.
020.50.98219780219780241969/19700.00.00.63.82.52.21.04.60.
014.70.70430769230769241968/19690.00.03.20.86.01.62.80.00.
014.40.6899340659340661967/19680.00.00.27.02.82.70.00.00.0
12.70.60848351648351651966/19670.00.00.07.27.60.91.10.00.0
16.80.80492307692307711965/19660.00.00.02.50.03.73.50.00.0
9.70.464747252747252761964/19650.00.02.16.24.17.79.60.00.0
29.71.4229890109890111963/19640.00.00.04.37.58.55.30.00.02
5.61.2265494505494507Data
Series:1.01962/19630.00.00.05.15.93.30.30.00.014.60.69951648
35164837Chi-squared p-
value:0.44857884059474571961/19620.00.00.216.630.56.20.41.
10.055.02.6351648351648356Distribution:1.00300555025117m
ean0.99999999999999981960/19610.00.00.16.10.71.40.73.70.01
2.70.6084835164835165Best
fit:Lognormalstdev0.50602039452912361959/19600.00.00.90.8
5.120.729.31.70.058.52.80285714285714341958/19590.00.04.9
4.713.20.66.10.90.030.41.4565274725274726Normal0.0098060

010077473961957/19580.00.0Tr5.516.50.98.30.00.031.21.4948
57142857143Lognormal0.44857884059474571956/19570.00.0Tr
3.96.9TrTr2.90.013.70.65639560439560451955/19560.00.00.83.
88.28.44.4Tr0.025.61.22654945054945071954/19550.00.00.00.
05.77.57.0Tr0.020.20.96782417582417591953/19540.00.01.88.
81.10.20.0Tr0.011.90.57015384615384621952/19530.00.04.64.
22.70.010.8Tr0.022.31.06843956043956071951/19520.00.10.33
.54.41.811.1Tr0.021.21.0157362637362641950/19510.00.00.21.
03.53.10.21.00.09.00.43120879120879131949/19500.00.00.03.4
1.40.50.2Tr0.05.50.263516483516483551948/19490.00.00.06.9
13.72.24.0Tr0.026.81.28404395604395631947/19480.00.00.00.
25.74.47.40.00.017.70.84804395604395611946/19470.00.00.00.
36.65.48.6Tr0.020.91.00136263736263741945/19460.00.00.514
.80.82.7Tr0.00.018.80.90074725274725291944/19450.00.00.07.
51.03.63.2Tr0.015.30.73305494505494521943/19440.00.01.49.
70.88.01.5Tr0.021.41.02531868131868141942/19430.00.00.110
.03.40.06.0Tr0.019.50.93428571428571441941/19420.00.02.03.
90.65.10.00.00.011.60.55578021978021991940/19410.00.02.61.
211.80.55.60.00.021.71.0396923076923081939/19400.00.00.04.
112.84.00.60.80.022.31.06843956043956071938/19390.00.02.0
0.06.15.80.30.10.014.30.68514285714285731937/19380.00.03.4
0.50.24.90.17.00.016.10.77138461538461561936/19370.00.00.0
4.23.63.94.2Tr0.015.90.76180219780219791935/19360.00.01.1
1.05.95.70.01.10.014.80.70909890109890131934/19350.00.05.0
4.40.10.20.01.00.010.70.51265934065934071933/19340.00.00.0
0.00.65.61.00.00.07.20.3449670329670331932/19330.00.06.46.
42.56.62.62.00.026.51.26967032967032981931/19320.00.02.02.
42.42.64.70.00.014.10.67556043956043971930/19310.00.00.00.
30.20.014.1Tr0.014.60.69951648351648371929/19300.00.00.12
.722.21.20.00.00.026.21.25529670329670351928/19290.00.00.6
6.110.210.20.0Tr0.027.11.29841758241758281927/19280.00.01
.08.51.02.01.50.00.014.00.67076923076923091926/19270.00.01
.10.08.70.43.10.00.013.30.63723076923076941925/19260.00.53
.05.04.210.812.46.50.042.42.0314725274725281924/19250.00.0
0.27.12.41.22.20.00.013.10.62764835164835181923/19240.00.0
9.10.66.410.610.40.00.037.11.7775384615384621922/19230.00.

00.00.60.01.22.7Tr0.04.50.215604395604395651921/19220.00.
00.54.81.44.81.10.00.012.60.60369230769230781920/19210.00.
00.00.74.80.40.80.60.07.30.349758241758241831919/19200.00.
02.60.50.40.62.07.00.013.10.62764835164835181918/19190.00.
03.416.41.013.10.0Tr0.033.91.62421978021978041917/19180.0
0.80.15.310.30.10.02.00.018.60.89116483516483541916/19170.
00.00.00.92.80.83.22.00.09.70.464747252747252761915/19160.
00.00.05.29.86.02.74.10.027.81.33195604395604431914/19150.
00.00.011.85.56.513.5Tr0.037.31.78712087912087921913/1914
0.03.00.04.00.114.35.10.00.026.51.26967032967032981912/191
30.01.00.00.04.18.34.20.00.017.60.84325274725274751911/191
20.00.02.63.35.915.040.2Tr0.067.03.2101098901098911910/19
110.00.00.21.30.112.30.20.00.014.10.67556043956043971909/1
9100.00.00.08.96.11.50.00.10.016.60.79534065934065961908/1
9090.03.00.50.05.33.41.0Tr0.013.20.63243956043956051907/1
9080.00.00.03.60.14.90.00.00.08.60.41204395604395611906/19
070.00.06.00.12.57.10.00.61.718.00.86241758241758261905/19
060.00.00.02.06.32.013.10.00.023.41.12114285714285721904/1
9050.00.00.011.84.413.60.01.20.031.01.4852747252747256190
3/19040.00.00.61.83.30.51.83.00.011.00.5270329670329671190
2/19030.00.00.04.44.69.73.03.60.025.31.2121758241758245190
1/19020.00.00.14.38.36.64.80.00.024.11.1546813186813191900
/19010.00.00.00.70.213.89.36.00.030.01.4373626373626376189
9/19000.00.00.03.90.018.40.2Tr0.022.51.078021978021978218
98/18990.05.87.49.80.94.64.95.20.038.61.849406593406593718
97/18980.00.00.011.321.91.61.50.00.036.31.7392087912087912
1896/18970.00.00.00.02.315.41.20.00.028.91.384659340659340
81895/18960.00.03.811.56.33.14.60.00.029.31.40382417582417
61894/18950.00.00.02.03.32.95.10.40.013.70.656395604395604
51893/18940.00.02.53.21.717.10.00.00.024.51.17384615384615
41892/18930.00.03.09.72.310.48.0Tr0.033.41.60026373626373
641891/18920.00.02.03.19.80.05.7Tr0.020.60.98698901098901
131890/18910.00.00.04.84.65.111.80.00.026.31.2600879120879
1231889/18900.00.00.00.07.34.02.00.00.013.30.6372307692307
6941888/18890.00.00.42.01.16.60.00.00.010.10.4839120879120
879520.87155963302752

0.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
1
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
0.10.50.91.31.72.12.52.93.3
1
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
1
0.0
0.5

1.0
1.5
0.10.50.91.31.72.12.52.93.33.74.1
1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
MBD0000622E.unknown
MBD0000DD50.unknown
9 - 1 8 5 - 0 1 7
R E V : M A R C H 7 , 1 9 9 4
_____________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________
______
Professor David E. Bell prepared this case. HBS cases are
developed solely as the basis for class discussion. Cases are not
intended to serve as
endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustrations of
effective or ineffective management.
Copyright © 1984 President and Fellows of Harvard College.
To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials,
call 1-800-545-7685,
write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163,
or go to http://www.hbsp.harvard.edu. No part of this
publication may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet,
or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic,
mechanical,

photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission
of Harvard Business School.
D A V I D E . B E L L
The Toro Company S’no Risk Program
“I really don’t see how we can repeat the program at those
rates.” It was June 1984 and Dick
Pollick, director of marketing for Consumer Products, was
reacting to an analysis by Susan Erdahl,
programs manager. Susan had used available historical data to
perform a rough actuarial calculation
that confirmed the appropriateness of the three-fold increase in
premiums asked by insurance
companies to cover a repeat of Toro’s “S’no risk” campaign.
Background
Toro had begun in 1914 by making tractor engines and later
branched out into lawn mowers. In
the early 1960s they added snowthrowers. By 1984 they offered
a full range of products for “outdoor
care” to both institutional and residential customers.
Residential lawn care products constituted
about 40-50% of sales, with snowthrowers accounting for a
further 10-15%.
Snowthrower sales were channeled through twenty-six regional
distributors who supplied
snowthrowers to independent retailers, such as hardware stores

and lawn and garden centers, across
the snow belt. Toro also sold directly to mass merchandisers,
like Marshall Field, whose private
labels made up about 30-35% of Toro snowthrower sales.
Although snowthrowers were sold
throughout the year, 60-70% of sales occurred during
November, December, and January, dropping
off during the ensuing months and becoming minimal during the
summer. Sales were especially
strong in a year following a severe winter, presumably because
people resolved not to be “caught
again.”
The Toro product line included the newly-introduced
lightweight power shovel, as well as the
more traditional single-stage and two-stage models. The
(smaller) single-stage machines, with
suggested retail prices of between $270 and $440, had been
selling in excess of 100,000 units per year.
The self-propelled two-stage machines, ranging in price from
$640 to $1,500, had been selling at
somewhat less than 20,000 units per year.
These figures were a far cry from the heady days of the late
1970s when several years of strong
growth had culminated in two years, 1978-1979 and 1979-1980,
of exceptionally high sales. During
this time Toro sold approximately 800,000 single-stage and
125,000 two-stage machines. The severity
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by
Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
185-017 The Toro Company S'no Risk Program

2
of the three winters beginning in 1977/1978 created a demand
that rewarded dealers for their
aggressive inventories.
The following year, 1980/1981 sales plummeted (Exhibit 1).
Dealers and distributors were left
with unsold inventories that in some cases lasted them three
years. Toro not only had to forego the
lost income as orders fell to a trickle but they also offered to
pay some of the huge holding costs faced
by their dealers. The next two winters were equally mild,
causing a sharp downturn in Toro’s
fortunes (Exhibit 3). Dealers had become disenchanted with
snow removal equipment. The outlook
was bleak.
The S’no Risk Idea
In November 1982, Susan Erdahl received a phone call from an
organization called Goodweather
that specialized in arranging insurance to cover weather-related
business losses; they had made a
reputation insuring rock concerts. They suggested that Toro
might wish to insure their snowthrower
customers against the possibility of no snow.
Dick Pollick was intrigued. A marketing survey commissioned
a few years earlier, had
emphasized that a major concern of prospective buyers was that
their machines might not get enough
use. Perhaps Goodweather’s proposal would be a way to
“guarantee” that a snowthrower purchase
would be justified.

By January 1983 the program was set to go: under the plan,
each Toro customer (with the
exception of those buying power shovels) during the summer
and fall of 1983 would receive a full
refund of the suggested retail price and keep the snowthrower if
the total winter snowfall was less
than 20% of its historical average. Data from 172 government-
run weather stations would be posted
at each retail outlet so that a customer could read which weather
station would apply and what the
relevant historical average had been. If the actual snowfall was
less than 50% of average, the
customer would be refunded half the retail price. Intermediate
percentages would produce a sliding
scale of reimbursements (see Exhibit 4). Customer mailing in
the registration form (Exhibit 2) would
automatically be mailed a check in the event that snowfall in
their are was sufficiently low.
Since Toro’s potential liabilities ran into many millions of
dollars, insurance was felt to be a
necessity, and this is where Goodweather came in. They
arranged a contract with American Home
Assurance Company, who agreed to meet all claims resulting
from the campaign in exchange for a
premium equal to 2.1% of the retail value of snowthrowers
covered.
The Program’s Success
At first distributors resisted the new promotion, which was to
replace the 10% discount program
usually held in the fall. They were apprehensive about the
possible administrative complexity and
the potential for customer confusion. However, they soon saw

the basic simplicity and appeal of the
idea. Dealers greeted the promotion enthusiastically and, for
the first time in three years, built up
inventories to back the campaign.
The accompanying advertising campaign (Exhibit 5) generated a
lot of interest, indeed
excitement: dealers reported customers demanding nothing but
a Toro, and buying larger models to
take a greater advantage of the deal. Soaring retail sales were
aided in some areas, such as in Toro’s
home base of Minneapolis, by record-setting fall snows.
Dealers sold out of the large models
The Toro Company S'no Risk Program 185-017
3
completely and sales of the single-stage machine were also
strong. In an attempt to keep pace with
demand, Toro made an unprecedented mid-season production
run of 2,500 of one of the larger
models. They were fortunate to be able to make even this
number as they relied on outside suppliers
for engines. Production lead times were on the order of months
rather than weeks.
Dick Pollick was overjoyed. Not only were sales up and
dealers’ confidence and interest back, but
the campaign had been cheap. Although some modest
administrative costs had been incurred due to

the set-up required for a new program, the S’no risk promotion
had had a basic cost of 2.1% of sales
instead of the 10% normally spend on the discount program!
The Present
Despite this success, Dick was not certain that the promotion
should be continued. For one thing,
the novelty might not carry over to a second year. Also, even
though two weather stations had
reported snow less than 50% of average (Richmond and
Roanoke, both Virginia), customers might be
less enthusiastic about the program when they learned that only
a few customer had “collected” the
previous year. Moreover, since the winter of 1983/1984 had
been snowy, sales in the coming fall
could be strong even without this kind of promotion. In any
case, Pollick regarded the restimulation
of the trade as a major benefit of the promotion and this would
not likely be reinforced by a
repetition.
And now Susan had told him that American Home was asking
premiums of around 8% of sales
for the coming year. A check of other insurance companies,
including Lloyd’s of London, produced
rate of between 6% and 10%. Susan’s own analysis (Exhibit 6)
had convinced her that American
Home had erred in offering too low a rate for the previous year.
Her calculations showed that had
S’no Risk been in force for the years 1979/1980 through
1982/1983 the actual payouts would have
been 4%, 8%, 1%, and 19% of sales respectively.

4
Exhibit 1 Snowthrower Sales
Snowthrower Sales—Units
Product 78/79 79/80 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84
Power Shovels -- 107,213 107,896 56,981 89,114 68,141
Single-Stage 426,425 367,253 124,615 111,472 102,718
110,564
Two-Stage 53,700 73,483 17,335 19,683 18,374 31,702
Exhibit 2
18

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rc
e

n
t
o
f
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le
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-
(4
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%
5
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e
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co

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re
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n
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n
t
$
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2
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e
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t
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6
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O
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ity
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%
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ity
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1
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3
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%
2
7
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%
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2
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1
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%
7
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%
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6
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u
m
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ry
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in

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it
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rr
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ss
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3
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t
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e
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re
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to

c
k
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ta
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o
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ig
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a E
ar
n

in
g
s
p
er
s
h
ar
e
w
er
e
lo
w
er
ed
b
y
$
.3
5
in
1
97

5
as
a
r
es
u
lt
o
f
th
e
ch
an
g
e
to
la
st
-i
n
, f
ir
st
-o

u
t
(L
IF
O
)
co
st
m
et
h
o
d
o
f
ac
co
u
n
ti
n
g
f
o

r
su
b
st
an
ti
al
ly
a
ll
in
v
en
to
ri
es
.
A
ll
1
97
5–
19
78

f
ig
u
re
s
h
av
e
b
ee
n
r
es
ta
te
d
f
o
r
th
e
sa
le
o

f
Ir
ri
g
at
io
n
&
P
o
w
er
E
q
u
ip
m
en
t,
I
n
c.
a
n

d
a
ll
1
98
0
fi
g
u
re
s
h
av
e
b
ee
n
r
es
ta
te
d
f
o

r
th
e
sa
le
o
f
B
ar
ef
o
o
t
G
ra
ss
L
aw
n
S
er
v
ic
e,

I
n
c.
A
ll
"
p
er
c
o
m
m
o
n
s
h
ar
e"
f
ig
u
re
s

h
av
e
b
ee
n
a
d
ju
st
ed
t
o
g
iv
e
ef
fe
ct
t
o
t
h
e

10
0%
s
to
ck
d
iv
id
en
d
in
D
ec
em
b
er
1
97
8.
T
h
e
19

7–
19
81
d
at
a
h
as
b
ee
n
r
es
ta
te
d
f
o
r
th
e
im
p
le

m
en
ta
ti
o
n
o
f
F
A
SB
N
o
. 4
3
ac
co
u
n
ti
n
g
f
o

r
co
m
p
en
sa
te
d
a
b
se
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ce
s.
E
ar
n
in
g
s
p
er
s

h
ar
e
ar
e
co
m
p
u
te
d
b
as
ed
o
n
n
et
e
ar
n
in
g
s

le
ss
p
re
fe
rr
ed
s
to
ck
d
iv
id
en
d
s.
6
Exhibit 4 Conditions and Terms of Toro's S'no Risk Program

18
5-
01
7
-
7-
E
xh
ib
it
5
T
o
ro
's
A
d

v
er
ti
si
n
g
C
am
p
ai
g
n
18
5-
01
7
-
8-

E
xh
ib
it
6
A
ve
ra
ge
A
ct
ua
l S
no
w
fa
ll
A
ct
ua

l S
al
es
(a
t r
et
ai
l v
al
ue
) b
ef
or
e
12
/1
0
S
'n
o
R
is
k
R

ef
un
d
R
ep
or
tin
g
S
ta
tio
n
C
od
e
S
no
w
fa
ll
79
/8
0
80

/8
1
81
/8
2
82
/8
3
79
80
81
82
79
/8
0
80
/8
1
81
/8

2
82
/8
3
B
lu
e
C
an
yo
n,
C
A
00
4
24
1.
6

23
2.
5
14
6.
4
N
/A
38
5.
7
86
,0
28
40
,2
57
14
,0
71

51
,3
86
C
ol
or
ad
o
S
pr
in
gs
, C
O
00
6
40
.6
72

.6
18
.2
34
.4
36
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28
1,
45
7
11
0,
47
1
31
,9
00

31
,7
57
55
,2
36
D
en
ve
r,
C
O
00
7
59
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85
.5

45
.1
26
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81
.6
2,
42
8,
82
9
1,
30
2,
08
6
34
2,
17
1

24
2,
67
1
17
1,
08
5
G
ra
nd
J
un
ct
io
n,
C
O
00
9
26

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21
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5.
9
15
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14
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11
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57
7,
21
4
3,
85

7
2,
10
0
5,
05
0
P
ue
bl
o,
C
O
01
3
30
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42

.6
16
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N
/A
22
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21
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28
23
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00
3,
37
1
3,

47
1
B
rid
ge
po
rt,
C
T
01
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26
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6
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57
1,
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3
16
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70
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14
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8,
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3
34

2,
98
6
84
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50
H
ar
tfo
rd
, C
T
01
7
50
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16
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17
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56
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46
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60
8,
88
6
25
7,
40
0
11
7,
95
7
37

6,
90
0
36
5,
33
2
15
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44
0
N
at
io
na
l A
irp
or
t,
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C

01
8
17
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20
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4.
5
22
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?
14
5,
17
1
25
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16
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14
42
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43
18
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30
P
oc
at
el
lo
, I
D
02
1
40

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35
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29
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66
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58
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14
9,
22
8
52
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43
31

,4
29
11
7,
91
4
C
hi
ca
go
-O
'H
ar
e,
IL
02
2
40
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41

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35
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59
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26
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39
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74
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3,
98
9,
31
4
1,
67

3,
82
9
3,
83
8,
90
0
M
ol
in
e,
IL
02
5
30
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37
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18
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45
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24
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2,
38
2,
02
9
38
6,
52
9
17
5,
12
8

13
2,
85
7
P
eo
ria
, I
L
02
6
25
.6
27
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23
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46

.9
19
.1
1,
30
7,
52
9
17
9,
21
4
62
,8
14
86
,7
57

R
oc
kf
or
d,
IL
02
8
35
.0
33
.9
21
.1
41
.0
28
.0

1,
96
7,
14
3
16
6,
41
4
59
,8
57
16
9,
82
9
S
pr

in
gf
ie
ld
, I
L
02
9
24
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30
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17
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50
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10
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83

6,
84
3
19
0,
27
1
95
,1
86
40
4,
12
9
20
2,
06
4

E
va
ns
vi
lle
, I
N
03
0
13
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16
.3
3.
4
15
.0
4.

1
75
,9
71
8,
98
6
3,
88
6
4,
30
0
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3
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ay
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an
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rie
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0
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ur
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ity
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9
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po
ka

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36
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al
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3
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re
en
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ay
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6
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ro
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ad
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on
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41
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1
24
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41
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26
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64
3
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ilw
au
ke
e,
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I
16
6
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41
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67
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38
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25
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3
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3,
52
9
78
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6
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as
pe
r,
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Y
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1.
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56
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68
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15
1.
6
10
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47
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71
11
,0
00
13
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29

18
5-
01
7
-
11
-
A
ve
ra
ge
A
ct
ua
l S
no
w
fa
ll
A

ct
ua
l S
al
es
(a
t r
et
ai
l v
al
ue
) b
ef
or
e
12
/1
0
S
'n
o
R
is

k
R
ef
un
d
R
ep
or
tin
g
S
ta
tio
n
C
od
e
S
no
w
fa
ll
79
/8

0
80
/8
1
81
/8
2
82
/8
3
79
80
81
82
79
/8
0
80
/8
1

81
/8
2
82
/8
3
C
he
ye
nn
e,
W
Y
16
9
52
.7

12
1.
5
27
.6
26
.9
10
1.
0
98
,4
43
68
,0
43
15
,0
00

16
,0
57
La
nd
er
, W
Y
17
0
10
4.
0
12
4.
4
67
.6
41

.8
16
5.
7
78
,2
14
33
,9
14
12
,9
14
14
,0
86
S
he

rid
an
, W
Y
17
2
70
.0
75
.8
46
.7
58
.9
66
.2
37
,1

00
13
,6
43
7,
20
0
14
,7
00
6,
45
7
To
ta
l S

al
es
To
ta
l R
eb
at
e
19
79
/1
98
0
13
5,
24
6,
55
1
5,
40

3,
59
2
19
80
/1
98
1
27
,3
13
,1
92
2,
15
0,
35
7
19
81
/1
98
2

21
4,
52
1,
86
6
18
0,
92
0
19
82
/1
98
3
30
,0
24
,2
17
5,
84

6,
29
9

Exhibit 1Toro SNo Risk ProgramExhibit 1Product787979808081818.docx

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