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Buy
• Global security and aerospace company
• Sector: Industrials
• Industry: Aerospace and Defense
• SIC: 3761: Manufacturer of Guided Missiles and Space
Vehicles
• Five Market Segments:
• Aeronautics
• Information Systems and Global Solutions
• Missiles and Fire Control
• Mission Systems and Training
• Space
$45,358
21%
$86,623
41%
$31,218
15%
$24,661
12%
$23,706
11%
2013 Sales
Lockheed Martin
(LMT)
Boeing (BA)
General Dynamics
(GD)
Northrop
Grumman (NOC)
Raytheon (RTN)
31%
18%17%
16%
18%
Total 2013 Net Sales: $45.4 B
Aeronautics ($14.1 B)
Information Systems &
Global Solutions ($8.4
B)
Missiles and Fire Conrol
($7.8 B)
Mission Systems and
Training ($7.1 B)
Space Systems ($8 B)
 31% of Net Sales ($14.1Billion)
 Major Programs as shown on the 2013 10-K:
◦ F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighter
 5th generation Stealth fighter
 50% of Aeronautics sales
($7.05 billion)
◦ C-130 Hercules
◦ F-16 Fighting Falcon
◦ F-22 Raptor
◦ C-5M Super Galaxy
◦ Advanced Development Programs (Skunk Works)
 18% of Net Sales ($8.4 billion)
 Nature of orders: Many small contracts
◦ Data analytics
◦ Cyber security
◦ Air traffic management
◦ Energy Management
◦ Network-enabled
situational awareness
◦ Mission solutions for defense applications
 Various classified national security systems
 17% of Net Sales ($7.8 billion)
 Primarily Military Service
(Army):
◦ Missile and defense
systems
◦ Logistics and
technical services
◦ Fire control systems
◦ Mission operations support
◦ Manned & unmanned ground vehicles
 16% of Net Sales ($7.1 billion)
 Primarily Military Service (Navy):
◦ Ship & submarine mission/combat systems
◦ Mission systems & sensors for rotary & fixed-wing aircraft
◦ Sea and land-based missile defense systems
◦ Radar systems
◦ Simulation & training services
◦ Unmanned systems & technologies
◦ Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
 18% of Net Sales ($8.0 billion)
 Primarily US Government Agencies:
◦ Satellites, Space Transportation Systems
& Missile Defense Systems
 Examples
 Trident D5 Fleet Ballistic Missile
 Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS)
 Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle
◦ Classified National Security Systems
82%
17%
1%
Total 2013 Net Sales:
$45.4 Billion
US Government
($37.228 B)
Foreign Military
Sales ($7.718 B)
US Commercial &
Other ($.454 B)
40,971
42,877
43,844 44,437
42,377 41,480 41,115
3,024
2,926
2,655
2,745
2,981
3,520 3,535
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015
$Millions
Net Costs and Expenses Net Earnings
$43,995
$45,803
$46,499
$47,182
$45,358 $45,000 $44,650
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015
EPS 7.86 8.03 7.90 8.48 9.29 11.00 11.40
40,971
42,877
43,844 44,437
42,377 41,480 41,115
3,024
2,926
2,655
2,745
2,981
3,520 3,535
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015
$Millions
Net Costs and Expenses Net Earnings
$43,995
$45,803
$46,499
$47,182
$45,358 $45,000 $44,650
Sales - +4% +1.5% +1.5% -4.0% -1.0% -1.0%
Net Inc - -3% -9.0% +3.0% +8.5% +18.% +0.4%
40,971
42,877
43,844 44,437
42,377 41,480 41,115
3,024
2,926
2,655
2,745
2,981
3,520 3,535
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015
$Millions
Net Costs and Expenses Net Earnings
$43,995
$45,803
$46,499
$47,182
$45,358 $45,000 $44,650
SPS - +9% +9% +2% -3.0% +2% +2.5%
EPS - +2% -2% +7% +9.5% +18% +3.6%
EPS 2011 2012 2013
LMT
 Basic 7.90 8.48 9.29
 Diluted 7.81 8.36 9.13
*8/25/2014 Prices Used *FYE 2013 Earnings Used
*FYE 2013 Dividend Payments Used
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LMT
BA
GD
NOC
RTN
2013 Payout Ratio
 LMT: 52%
 BA: 32%
 GD: 24%
 NOC: 28%
 RTN: 35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LMT
BA
GD
NOC
RTN
0
50
100
150
200
250
Adj Close
$187.19
+124%
$85.16
 2014
 October 31st: Systems Made Simple Acquisition
 October 24th: $4 Billion F-35 Deal
 October 15th: 10 year Hydrogen Fusion Project
Announced
 September 25th: $7.1 Billion F-35 Deal
 September 22nd: $828 Million Trident Missile
Contract
Strengths
 A very strong relationship with the Pentagon
 Improving operations efficiency in shrinking
industry.
 Product Diversification
Weaknesses
 Debt levels
 Expensive products
Opportunities
 Foreign Markets
 F-35 in high demand
 International tensions
 Possible creative destruction in energy sector
 Capabilities to lower costs
Threats
 Sequestration cuts
 High risk target for data breaches
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Historical Average P/E
LMT
BA
GD
NOC
RTN
Comparative Measures
Price EPS P/E Beta
5 year EPS
Growth
Growth to
Beta
LMT $187 10.23 18.3 0.68 4.8% 0.07
BA 125 6.64 18.9 0.99 7.1% 0.07
GD 141 7.19 19.6 0.83 1.2% 0.01
NOC 137 9.27 14.7 0.77 1.9% 0.03
RTN 104 6.18 16.8 0.68 7.0% 0.10
Comparative Measures
Price EPS P/E Beta
5 year EPS
Growth
Growth to
Beta
LMT $187 10.23 18.3 0.68 4.8% 0.07
BA 125 6.64 18.9 0.99 7.1% 0.07
GD 141 7.19 19.6 0.83 1.2% 0.01
NOC 137 9.27 14.7 0.77 1.9% 0.03
RTN 104 6.18 16.8 0.68 7.0% 0.10
Current Justified
P/E 18x 23x
Price $187 $200-$240 +8% to 28%
 As of 2000, dividends continue to grow:
• At least 9%
• Every 4 quarters
 Current dividend per share payment is $1.50
 Conservative 5 year projection: $2.36
 Calculated present value of projected dividends:
 $29
 Projected stock price growth per ValueLine:
 PV Higher price ($200): $159
 Average ($180): $143
 Lower price ($160): $127
 Conservative Valuation: $156
 Averaged Valuation: $172
 P/E method weigted 50% (Averaged Figure)
+ DDM method weighted 50% (Averaged Figure)
 $205 per share
11/14/2014 Closing Price: $186.60
.....Gain (Loss): + 10%
 Buy Lockheed Martin
◦ Demand for products are growing.
◦ International issues are growing tense.
◦ Strong relations with US government.
◦ High diversification.
Appendix
Fiscal Year End 2013
ROE ROA ROR&D
LMT: 61% 8.2% 4.28x
BA: 31% 4.9% 1.49x
NOC: 18% 6.4% 3.85x
GD: 16% 6.6% 7.60x
RTN: 18% 7.8% 4.32x
61%
31%
18% 18% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
LMT: BA: NOC: RTN: GD:
8%
8%
7% 6%
5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
LMT: RTN: GD: NOC: BA:
7.6
4.32 4.28
3.85
1.49
0
2
4
6
8
GD: RTN: LMT: NOC: BA:
EPS 2011 2012 2013
LMT
 Basic 7.90 8.48 9.29
 Diluted 7.81 8.36 9.13
*8/25/2014 Prices Used *FYE 2013 Earnings Used
*FYE 2013 Dividend Payments Used
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LMT
BA
GD
NOC
RTN
2013 Payout Ratio
 LMT: 52%
 BA: 32%
 GD: 24%
 NOC: 28%
 RTN: 35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LMT
BA
GD
NOC
RTN
2013 2012 2011
Sales from Products $35,691 $37,817 $36,925
Sales from Services 9,667 $9,365 9,574
Total Sales $45,358 $47,182 $46,499
Total COGS -41,171 -42,986 -42,755
Operating Income 4,187 4,196 3,744
% of Sales 9.23% 8.89% 8.05%
EBIT $4,155 4,072 3,631
% of Sales 9.16% 8.63% 7.81%
Income Tax Expense -1,205 -1,327 -964
% of EIBT 29.00% 32.59% 26.55%
2013 2012 2011
Income Tax Expense -1,205 -1,327 -964
% of EIBT 29.00% 32.59% 26.55%
Other Income(Loss) from
Discontinued Ops net of
tax 31 0 -12
Net Income $2,981 $2,745 $2,655
Profit Margin 6.57% 5.82% 5.71%
Sales Growth (Geometric)
2011-2013 3.94%
2013 2012
Cash including marketable securities $2,617 $1,898
Inventory 2,977 2,937
A/R 5,834 6,563
Total Current Assets 13,329 13,855
Total Noncurrent Assets 22,859 24,802
Total Assets 36,188 38,657
Total Current Liabilities 11,120 12,155
Total LT Liabilities 20,150 26,463
Total Liabilities 31,270 38,618
Preferred Equity - -
Common Equity 319 321
Total Stock Holder's Equity 4,918 39
2013 2012
ROA 8.2% 7.1%
ROE 55.8% 6807.7%
Change in Revenue/Change in Cash -10.2%
Current Ratio 1.198651 1.13986
Quick Ratio 0.759982 0.696092
Working Capital 2,209 1,700
Equity as a % of Assets 13.6% 0.1%
Leverage 7.4 991.2
Inventory Turnover 26.2 12.5

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LMT Board Presentation

  • 1.
  • 2. Buy
  • 3. • Global security and aerospace company • Sector: Industrials • Industry: Aerospace and Defense • SIC: 3761: Manufacturer of Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles • Five Market Segments: • Aeronautics • Information Systems and Global Solutions • Missiles and Fire Control • Mission Systems and Training • Space
  • 4. $45,358 21% $86,623 41% $31,218 15% $24,661 12% $23,706 11% 2013 Sales Lockheed Martin (LMT) Boeing (BA) General Dynamics (GD) Northrop Grumman (NOC) Raytheon (RTN)
  • 5. 31% 18%17% 16% 18% Total 2013 Net Sales: $45.4 B Aeronautics ($14.1 B) Information Systems & Global Solutions ($8.4 B) Missiles and Fire Conrol ($7.8 B) Mission Systems and Training ($7.1 B) Space Systems ($8 B)
  • 6.  31% of Net Sales ($14.1Billion)  Major Programs as shown on the 2013 10-K: ◦ F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighter  5th generation Stealth fighter  50% of Aeronautics sales ($7.05 billion) ◦ C-130 Hercules ◦ F-16 Fighting Falcon ◦ F-22 Raptor ◦ C-5M Super Galaxy ◦ Advanced Development Programs (Skunk Works)
  • 7.  18% of Net Sales ($8.4 billion)  Nature of orders: Many small contracts ◦ Data analytics ◦ Cyber security ◦ Air traffic management ◦ Energy Management ◦ Network-enabled situational awareness ◦ Mission solutions for defense applications  Various classified national security systems
  • 8.  17% of Net Sales ($7.8 billion)  Primarily Military Service (Army): ◦ Missile and defense systems ◦ Logistics and technical services ◦ Fire control systems ◦ Mission operations support ◦ Manned & unmanned ground vehicles
  • 9.  16% of Net Sales ($7.1 billion)  Primarily Military Service (Navy): ◦ Ship & submarine mission/combat systems ◦ Mission systems & sensors for rotary & fixed-wing aircraft ◦ Sea and land-based missile defense systems ◦ Radar systems ◦ Simulation & training services ◦ Unmanned systems & technologies ◦ Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
  • 10.  18% of Net Sales ($8.0 billion)  Primarily US Government Agencies: ◦ Satellites, Space Transportation Systems & Missile Defense Systems  Examples  Trident D5 Fleet Ballistic Missile  Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS)  Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle ◦ Classified National Security Systems
  • 11. 82% 17% 1% Total 2013 Net Sales: $45.4 Billion US Government ($37.228 B) Foreign Military Sales ($7.718 B) US Commercial & Other ($.454 B)
  • 12. 40,971 42,877 43,844 44,437 42,377 41,480 41,115 3,024 2,926 2,655 2,745 2,981 3,520 3,535 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015 $Millions Net Costs and Expenses Net Earnings $43,995 $45,803 $46,499 $47,182 $45,358 $45,000 $44,650 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015 EPS 7.86 8.03 7.90 8.48 9.29 11.00 11.40
  • 13. 40,971 42,877 43,844 44,437 42,377 41,480 41,115 3,024 2,926 2,655 2,745 2,981 3,520 3,535 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015 $Millions Net Costs and Expenses Net Earnings $43,995 $45,803 $46,499 $47,182 $45,358 $45,000 $44,650 Sales - +4% +1.5% +1.5% -4.0% -1.0% -1.0% Net Inc - -3% -9.0% +3.0% +8.5% +18.% +0.4%
  • 14. 40,971 42,877 43,844 44,437 42,377 41,480 41,115 3,024 2,926 2,655 2,745 2,981 3,520 3,535 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P2015 $Millions Net Costs and Expenses Net Earnings $43,995 $45,803 $46,499 $47,182 $45,358 $45,000 $44,650 SPS - +9% +9% +2% -3.0% +2% +2.5% EPS - +2% -2% +7% +9.5% +18% +3.6%
  • 15. EPS 2011 2012 2013 LMT  Basic 7.90 8.48 9.29  Diluted 7.81 8.36 9.13 *8/25/2014 Prices Used *FYE 2013 Earnings Used *FYE 2013 Dividend Payments Used 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LMT BA GD NOC RTN
  • 16. 2013 Payout Ratio  LMT: 52%  BA: 32%  GD: 24%  NOC: 28%  RTN: 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LMT BA GD NOC RTN
  • 18.  2014  October 31st: Systems Made Simple Acquisition  October 24th: $4 Billion F-35 Deal  October 15th: 10 year Hydrogen Fusion Project Announced  September 25th: $7.1 Billion F-35 Deal  September 22nd: $828 Million Trident Missile Contract
  • 19. Strengths  A very strong relationship with the Pentagon  Improving operations efficiency in shrinking industry.  Product Diversification Weaknesses  Debt levels  Expensive products
  • 20. Opportunities  Foreign Markets  F-35 in high demand  International tensions  Possible creative destruction in energy sector  Capabilities to lower costs Threats  Sequestration cuts  High risk target for data breaches
  • 21. 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Historical Average P/E LMT BA GD NOC RTN
  • 22. Comparative Measures Price EPS P/E Beta 5 year EPS Growth Growth to Beta LMT $187 10.23 18.3 0.68 4.8% 0.07 BA 125 6.64 18.9 0.99 7.1% 0.07 GD 141 7.19 19.6 0.83 1.2% 0.01 NOC 137 9.27 14.7 0.77 1.9% 0.03 RTN 104 6.18 16.8 0.68 7.0% 0.10
  • 23. Comparative Measures Price EPS P/E Beta 5 year EPS Growth Growth to Beta LMT $187 10.23 18.3 0.68 4.8% 0.07 BA 125 6.64 18.9 0.99 7.1% 0.07 GD 141 7.19 19.6 0.83 1.2% 0.01 NOC 137 9.27 14.7 0.77 1.9% 0.03 RTN 104 6.18 16.8 0.68 7.0% 0.10 Current Justified P/E 18x 23x Price $187 $200-$240 +8% to 28%
  • 24.  As of 2000, dividends continue to grow: • At least 9% • Every 4 quarters  Current dividend per share payment is $1.50  Conservative 5 year projection: $2.36
  • 25.  Calculated present value of projected dividends:  $29  Projected stock price growth per ValueLine:  PV Higher price ($200): $159  Average ($180): $143  Lower price ($160): $127  Conservative Valuation: $156  Averaged Valuation: $172
  • 26.  P/E method weigted 50% (Averaged Figure) + DDM method weighted 50% (Averaged Figure)  $205 per share 11/14/2014 Closing Price: $186.60 .....Gain (Loss): + 10%
  • 27.  Buy Lockheed Martin ◦ Demand for products are growing. ◦ International issues are growing tense. ◦ Strong relations with US government. ◦ High diversification.
  • 29. Fiscal Year End 2013 ROE ROA ROR&D LMT: 61% 8.2% 4.28x BA: 31% 4.9% 1.49x NOC: 18% 6.4% 3.85x GD: 16% 6.6% 7.60x RTN: 18% 7.8% 4.32x
  • 33. EPS 2011 2012 2013 LMT  Basic 7.90 8.48 9.29  Diluted 7.81 8.36 9.13 *8/25/2014 Prices Used *FYE 2013 Earnings Used *FYE 2013 Dividend Payments Used 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LMT BA GD NOC RTN
  • 34. 2013 Payout Ratio  LMT: 52%  BA: 32%  GD: 24%  NOC: 28%  RTN: 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LMT BA GD NOC RTN
  • 35. 2013 2012 2011 Sales from Products $35,691 $37,817 $36,925 Sales from Services 9,667 $9,365 9,574 Total Sales $45,358 $47,182 $46,499 Total COGS -41,171 -42,986 -42,755 Operating Income 4,187 4,196 3,744 % of Sales 9.23% 8.89% 8.05% EBIT $4,155 4,072 3,631 % of Sales 9.16% 8.63% 7.81% Income Tax Expense -1,205 -1,327 -964 % of EIBT 29.00% 32.59% 26.55%
  • 36. 2013 2012 2011 Income Tax Expense -1,205 -1,327 -964 % of EIBT 29.00% 32.59% 26.55% Other Income(Loss) from Discontinued Ops net of tax 31 0 -12 Net Income $2,981 $2,745 $2,655 Profit Margin 6.57% 5.82% 5.71% Sales Growth (Geometric) 2011-2013 3.94%
  • 37. 2013 2012 Cash including marketable securities $2,617 $1,898 Inventory 2,977 2,937 A/R 5,834 6,563 Total Current Assets 13,329 13,855 Total Noncurrent Assets 22,859 24,802 Total Assets 36,188 38,657 Total Current Liabilities 11,120 12,155 Total LT Liabilities 20,150 26,463 Total Liabilities 31,270 38,618 Preferred Equity - - Common Equity 319 321 Total Stock Holder's Equity 4,918 39
  • 38. 2013 2012 ROA 8.2% 7.1% ROE 55.8% 6807.7% Change in Revenue/Change in Cash -10.2% Current Ratio 1.198651 1.13986 Quick Ratio 0.759982 0.696092 Working Capital 2,209 1,700 Equity as a % of Assets 13.6% 0.1% Leverage 7.4 991.2 Inventory Turnover 26.2 12.5

Editor's Notes

  1. Comments for each slide indicate the source(s) used for that slide.
  2. MarketLine 2013 LMT 10-k report
  3. 2013 LMT 10-k report
  4. 2013 LMT 10-k report
  5. 2013 LMT 10-k report Data analytics Cyber security Air traffic management Energy Management ex: Hanford Mission Support (contract for the Department of Energy) Network-enabled situational awareness Mission solutions for defense applications Various classified national security systems ex: Command, Control, Battle Management and Communications (C2BMC) (contract for integrating US Ballistic Missile Defense System)
  6. 2013 LMT 10-k report Primarily Military Service (Army): Missile and defense systems Ex: Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) Logistics and technical services Special Operations Forces Contractor Logistics support Fire control systems Ex: Low Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for Night (LANTIRN) Mission operations support Readiness Engineering Support Integration Manned & unmanned ground vehicles Squad Mission Support System (SMSS)
  7. 2013 LMT 10-k report Ship & submarine mission/combat systems Ex: MK-41 Vertical Launching System (VLS) Mission systems & sensors for rotary & fixed-wing aircraft Sea and land-based missile defense systems Ex: Aegis Combat System Radar systems Ex: TPQ-53 Radar System Simulation & training services Unmanned systems & technologies Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) Ex: USS Freedom LCS-1
  8. 2013 LMT 10-k report
  9. 2013 LMT 10-k report
  10. 2013 and 2010 LMT 10-k Reports were used to gather Data from 2009-2013. ValueLine was used to gather Data on Projections for 2014 and 2015.
  11. 2013 and 2010 LMT 10-k Reports were used to gather Data from 2009-2013. ValueLine was used to gather Data on Projections for 2014 and 2015.
  12. 2013 and 2010 LMT 10-k Reports were used to gather Data from 2009-2013. ValueLine was used to gather Data on Projections for 2014 and 2015.
  13. 2013 LMT 10-k report 2013 BA 10-k report BA Dividend Payment History: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ba/dividend-history
  14. Dividend Payment History: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/lmt/dividend-history Stock Prices: Yahoo! Finance Interactive Chart
  15. 2013 LMT 10-k report 2013 BA 10-k report BA Dividend Payment History: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ba/dividend-history