Technology and Climate Change, Fernando Temprano, director de tecnología de Repsol

© Repsol. Dirección de Tecnología. November 4th, Campus Repsol, Madrid.
Technology and Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE:
IMPLICATIONS FOR TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS
Panel II: Technologies to cope with climate change challenges

© Repsol. Dirección de Tecnología. November 4th, Campus Repsol, Madrid. 2
INDEX
1. Enviromental Challenges
2. Energy Challenges
3. Technologies to cope with challenges
1. Industry and production efficiency
2. Transport efficiency
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. CO2 capture and use
4. Final remarks

INDEX
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

Changesintheenvironment
4
•Population growth.
•Increased urbanization.
•Growing needs for energy, food, water.
•More interconnection.
•Increased complexity.
•Intense geopolitical shift.
•Imbalances between regions…

Demography
5
2015 2050
World population:
7.300 M
(1650 M en 1900)
World population:
9.700 M
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Data Processing: Repsol
Africa
1.186 M (16%)
Asia
4.393 M (60%)
Europe
738 M (10%)
South America &
Caribe
634 M (8%)
North America
358 M (5%)
Oceanía
39 M (1%)
África
2.478 M (25%)
Asia
5.267 M (54%)
Europe
707 M (7%)
South America &
Caribe
784 M (8%)
North America
433 M (5%)
Oceanía
57 M (1%)
+21 %
+109 %
+20 %
-4 %
+24 %
+44 %
+33 %

Urbanization
6
455 M
2015 2050
Percentageof urban
population:
>75%
50 – 75%
25 – 50%
3.900 millones people live in cities 6.300 millones people live in cities
Numberof inhabitantsin urban areas: Numberof inhabitantsin urban areas:
Source: Naciones Unidas, World Urbanization Prospects, 2014. Data processing: Repsol
545 M
2064 M
27 M
496 M
292 M 390 M
674 M 1338M
581 M
3313M
42 M
+61 %

SocialChanges
7
2015 2050
12%of the population is over 60 years
There is a 42% digital natives
22%of the population is over 60 years
There is a 78% digital natives
Traditional economy and
ownership
Sharing economy
Source: Naciones Unidas, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Data processing: Repsol

INDEX
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

EnergyChallenges
10
1. To meet growing energy demand to
achieve reasonable levels of social and
economic welfare, and secure stable
supplies.
2. Doing so in an environmentally acceptable:
• Balancing the concentration of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2),
at levels that do not pose a threat to the climate.
• With high air quality standards in cities.
Source: IEA WEO 2014 – New Policies Scenario / Repsol data process
CO2

13361 18292 15629
GrowingEnergyDemandbyscenario
Source: IEA WEO 2014 / Repsol data process
82% 74% 59% % FOSIL

KeytechnologiesforreducingglobalCO2
Source:IEA EnergyTechnologyPerspecives2015 / Repsol
6D Scenario
2D Scenario
7 %
11 %
19 %
21 %
42 %
Oil & Gas
Technologies

INDEX
3. Technologies to cope with challenges:
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

Technologytocopewithclimatechangechallenges
withRepsolexamples
14

INDEX
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

24
27
30
33
36
39
42
We have achieved the 15% CO2 reduction three years before expected, so we are
setting two new objectives of 22% in 2016 and 35% in 2020 compared to 2010.
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
IRCO2
Plan January2014
Plan July 2011
2010
New objective(22%)
15%
22%
IRCO2 annualaverage
IndustryEfficiency
EmissionsReductionPlaninRepsol’srefineries
2017-2020
35%
Energy Operational
Excellence
Technological
Innovation
16

17
ToboostEfficiency… Digitalization
1.-Analyze huge amounts of
information
2.-Promote synergy/multi-
tasking
6.-Make optimal decisions
3.-Improve (subsurface)
models
5.-Monitor operations in
“real time”
4.-Optimize Development
plans and Production
An example on E&P:
New digital tools to cope overall challenges, with 6 main
areas of intervention to increase efficiency and value
Imperfect subsurface models influence
Exploration Success Ratios and Development
Plans, promoting inefficient operations
These high levels of uncertainty together with the
difficulties to penetrate complex data hamper
human decission making.

Efficiency
Excalibur
Digitalization
18
Pegasus
Heisenberg
Full optimization of field
developments improving NPV of
our assets through digitalization World’s first application of
cognitive systems in the
energy industry
Characterizing uncertainty to
improve oil input planning in
refineries and to optimize the output.

Efficiencyandvalue:
Makingoptimizationincomplexitywithbestdecisions
Eg.: Pegasus Projects
19
Emerging computing sciences enable humans to
make better decisions by overcoming cognitive
limitations posed by big data and complex
scenarios.
• Big data
• Conceptual Hypothesis
• Deep Learning
• Decission Analysis

INDEX
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

CO2
(g/km)
Consump*
(l/100 km)
∆ (1995)
1995 186 7,9 -
2008 154 6,5 ↓ 17%
2015 130 5,5 ↓ 30%
2020 95 4,0 ↓ 49%
2025 68-78 ≈ 3,1 ↓ ≈ 60%
2030 <50? ≤ 2? ↓ ≈75%?
2050 ? ? ↓ ?
Challengesinenergy&mobility
Límites para homologación vehículos
gasolina
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
EmisiónencicloNEDC(g/km)
Límites para homologación vehículos
diésel
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
EmisiónencicloNEDC(g/km)
CO2 emissions (new registrations average)
201420092005200019961992 201420092005200019961992
HC+NOx (g/km)
NOx (g/km)
CO (g/km)
HC (g/km)
HC+NOx (g/km)
NOx (g/km)
CO (g/km)
HC (g/km)
NEDCcycleemissions(g/km)
Diesel vehicle standardsOtto vehicle standards
NEDCcycleemissions(g/km)
* = gasoline
Local Emissions (Europe)
CO2
(g/km)
Consump*
(l/100 km)
∆ (2002)
- - -
185 7,8 ↓ 13%
168 7,1 ↓ 21%
116 4,9 ↓ 45%
95? 4,0? ↓ ≈ 55%
<50 ? ≤ 2? ↓ ≈75%?
? ? ↓ ?
EUROPE CHINA USA
CO2
(g/km)
Consump**
(l/100 km)
∆ (2002)
- - -
238 10,1 ↓ 9%
183 7,7 ↓ 30%
106 4,5 ↓ 60%
?? ?? ??
<50 ? ≤ 2? ↓ ≈80%?
? ? ↓ ?
** = includesall LDV
21
* = gasoline

Intensification of
electrification
E.U.Automotivesectorhasthetechnologiestocomplythepassengercar
standardsuntil2020-25…,what‘snext?
22
Breakthrough:
Battery
(performance and cost)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Hybridizationshare
Depending on
performanceand
cost of battery
Electrification increaseEfficiency increase
CO2(g/km)
130
95
¿75?
¿50?
€
2005
2005 2015

ICEEfficiency
RacingRepsol-Honda technology
23
Oil
Efficiency improvement∼3%
Gasoline
Performance improvement∼4%
2010 Ref. 2013 R47 2003 CTR4 2013 CTR55
Most advanced technology developed to World Championship (Honda-
Repsol team) applied to commercial fuels.
World Championship get the very best of oil and gasoline potential
performance.
The technologies developed under the competition move automotive
challenges solutions forward.

EfficiencyfromnewfuelconceptsinICE
RepsolLPGDIproject
24
Sector
Automoción
Sector
Energético
CTR
Sector auxiliar
Conocer y entenderel sector de atomoción ayuda a anticipar el futuro
de la energía para el transporte
Competición
Repsol-Honda
Prospección
Energía
para el
Transporte
LPG
Direct Injection
• “Original idea” from RepsolTechnology Centre (2 patents)
• To highlight the benefits of fuel(13% CO2 and without particle matter)
• How to squeeze LPG value beyond market sales
Fuel plays an relevant roll on
the combustion engine efficiency improvement
* Other technologies: 30-50 €/[g/km] CO2
CO2emissions[g/km)
Gasoline
Diesel
LPG
Vehiclemass [kg]

Fuente: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Energystorage:batteriestechnology
Battery technology development is going faster as more optimistic forecast
The electrification rate in mobility depends on battery cost and performance
(Specific Energy)
Source: Li–O2 andLi–S batteries with high energy storage, Peter G. Bruce, Stefan A.
Freunberger, LaurenceJ. Hardwick and Jean-Marie Tarascon. Nature materials, december
2011.

INDEX
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

Energystorageandrenewables.
27
Centralized Descentralized Distributed
Towards a more distributed model
… the role of energy storage (batteries) in renewable
generation, especially if it is distributed

Solarenergyhasgoodgrowthprospects,basedonits
fundamentals:PV
28
Heat Energy
Thermoelectric
Power
Thermochemical
Chemical
Active Passive
Heat capture
Heat
Energy coming from the sun in a
year (23.000 Tw ) is 1000 times
world energy consumption (16
Tw)
Photovoltaics
Power
Biomass
Chemical
Solar fuels
Artificial Photosynthesis
Light Energy
Solar energy (photovoltaics +
thermoelectric) will suply 25%
global electricity in 2050.
(IEA Solar Energy Perspectives)

Source: Yole Développement & Fraunhofer ISE. Data processing: Repsol.
Photovoltaicsthecnologyevolution
29
Source: Navigant Consulting, pvXchange & Fraunhofer ISE. Data processing: Repsol
Crystalline Silicon is a well established & rapidly improving
technology with lower costs and higher efficiencies than predicted
Assuming no technology breakthroughs, incremental
advances and economies of scale will make PV one of
the cheapest energy sources.

INDEX
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

CarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)
31
• CCS technologies are sufficiently mature,
especially for the use in Oil & Gas industry,
where there are projects that capture more than
1 Mtpy of CO2, in natural gas processing,
refinery H2 units or in oil sands.
• 75% out of 22 in operation or under construction
projects use CO2 for EOR applications.
• CCS implementation rate far away from defined
targets
• High cost  Low Carbon Prices
• Regulatory uncertainties (mostly CO2 storage)
• Negative Public Perception (mostly CO2 storage)
Source : 2014 Global CCS Institute

CO2 use:
Neospol: polymers from CO2
32
•Development for the production of polymers from
CO2 to markets such as polyurethanes.
•Cost reduction
•Diferentiation and market leadership
•Acces to best margin markets
•Sustainability: reduction of carbon footprint

Solarenergyhasgoodgrowthprospects,basedonits
fundamentals:CO2 use
33
Heat Energy
Thermoelectric
Power
Thermochemical
Chemical
Active Passive
Heat capture
Heat
Energy coming from the sun in a
year (23.000 Tw ) is 1000 times
world energy consumption (16
Tw)
Photovoltaics
Power
Biomass
Chemical
Solar fuels
Light Energy
Solar energy (photovoltaics +
thermoelectric) will suply 25%
global electricity in 2050.
(IEA Solar Energy Perspectives)

Conversionofsolarenergytochemicalenergy
34
CO2
H2O
O2
CxHyOz
SOLAR
FUELS
Output
PHOTOREACTOR < > PHOTOVOLTAIC PANEL
integrates the solar energy and the CATALYST, whose nature determines the way of raw
materials to different products
Raw Materials
CO2 + H2O
H2O
Products
ethylene
ethane
CH4
methanol
formaldehyde
ac. formic
syngas
H2
Natural Photosynthesis
vs
Atomic Layer
Deposition
Advanced materials
3D Nanoestructures

Newenablingtechnologies:AdvancedBiology
Advanced bilogy (biology + enginering) is in a indrustial revolution phase
35
“Ley de Moore”
¿nueva
tecnología?
Automatización y
paralelizacióndel
análisis
Nuevas técnicas que requieren
menos manipulación de muestra y
mayor capacidad de interpretación
de la información(paralelización)
The cost per genomehas
reduce10,000 times in
10 years ...
… 1.000.000 times
in 15 years
Cell as a factory
WASTE
Carbonsources
CO2
Specialities
Materials
Chemicals
Fuels
(Drop-in fuels)
Raw Material Process Bioproducts
In the future
… microorganisms modified as tools for EOR, crude oil
upgrading , flow assurance…
Ingeniería
Metabólica
Biología
de
Sistemas
Biología
Molecular
Genómica
Costdropin genomicsequencing

INDEX
• Energy Storage
3. Renewables
4. Final remarks

Finalremarks
37
Technology is the main driver to push for
a new energy model
The pace of technology evolution is
accelerating faster than before
Formerly unrelated sectors to energy are
getting interconnected with each other

Technology and Climate Change, Fernando Temprano, director de tecnología de Repsol

Technology and Climate Change, Fernando Temprano, director de tecnología de Repsol

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