Energy Efficiency Policies for the SEMED/Arab RegionCrowne Plaza Hotel, Amman, Jordan15 & 16 April 2013Scaling up Energy Efficiency inMoroccoDr. Abdelmourhit Lahbabi
Overview of Morocco’s energy profile2011Energy ConsumptionEnergy importsAverage annual increase rateSubsidies to petroleum productsNational Energy bill17.7 million toe0.54 toe/capita10.1 billion $4.8 billion $5,3%95,5%
Important energy demand2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030050.00010.00020.00030.00040.00017264215Energy Consumption in million toeEnergy demand increase :+ 50% by 2020+150% by 2030
4 Annual growth rate of 7%-8% Significant mitigation potential 2/3 ofthe national potential Ambitious development strategy ofRnE&EE Solar plan (2000 MW) Wind energy program(2000 MW)Electricity generationThe electricity demand in Morocco isexpected to almost double by 2020and triple by 2030950204060801001201402008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030Consommation en TWH5231242008 2012 2020 20300.50.60.70.82000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010EFtCO2/MWhEvolution ofthe National Grid Emission FactorElectricity consumption inTWh
5 With an average of 2.8 tCO2/year/capita, Morocco hasa low level of GHG emissions. Until 2010, Morocco’s GHG emissions increased by anaverage rate of 3% per year. They are projected toincrease faster in the future, largely driven byelectricity demand that increases at an annual rate of7%. Generating over half of the total emissions, the energysector is the main source of GHG emissionsOverview Morocco’s GHG Emissions ProfileBAU scenario in million tCO2Distribution of emissions by sectorGeneration18%Industry-energy8%Transport9%Agr.Forest6%Households7%other3%Industry8%Agriculture31%Forestry5%Waste5%Energy51%
6Renewable Electricity generationSignificant potentialfor renewable energy•Wind power potentialestimated at about 25,000 MW•Wind speeds between 9 and 11m/s•Over 3,000 h/year of sunshineor a sun irradiation of ~ 5kWh/m2/dayHighly-developedpower transitinfrastructure• Morocco – Spain 1400MW in service• Morocco– Spain: 700 MWunder development• Morocco - Algeria: 1200MW in serviceWorld-class projects• Moroccan Solar Program:2000 MW by 2020• Moroccan Wind EnergyProgram: 2000 MW by2020• 2 000 MW• 6600 GWH• 3,5 billion $• 5,6 milliontonsObjective (2020)Electrical productionInvestmentAvoided CO2 emissions /Year>6 m/s5-6 m/s4-5 m/s3-4 m/s<3 m/sunknown includingOffshore potential• 2 000 MW• 4500 GWH•9 billion $• 3.2 milliontonsMoroccan Solar Plan Moroccan Wind ProgramObjective (2020)Electrical productionInvestmentAvoided CO2 emissions /Year
7 Overall, based on the scenario analysis of the Second National Communication, the GHGemissions mitigation potential is estimated at 57.6 million tCO2 per year by 2030 ,largelycoming from electricity generation (2/3) sector, equivalent to the level of emissions inMorocco in 1998.Mitigation potential3% 4%14%67%7%4%1%TransportBuildingsIndustryEnergy GenrationWasteAgricultureForests89.6113134.5160.8194.865.376.785.6 89.996.8117.9137.20501001502002502000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030BAU ScenarioMitigation Scenario-30%Distribution of the mitigation potential in MoroccoTotal 57.6 million tons CO2/year 2030GHG emissions evolution scenariosmillion tCO2e
8Enabling framework: RnE new law N°13-09 : opening the electricity sector to competition –RnE private generation, transport ( through national grid or owntransport line) and use EE new law N° 47-09 ( obligation of audits – auditors certification-Energy consumption labeling-Thermal energy code for buildings, etc.) Institutional Setup: ADEREE (Agency for ReE and EE Development ) MASEN ( Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy) SIE : Energy Investment Company– PPP for RnE and EE projectsdevelopment Financial setup EDF: Energy Development Fund- 1 billion $MOROCCO’S NEW ENERGY STRATEGY
9 RnE: 42% contribution to the electricity installedcapacity by 2020: 14% Hydro, 14% wind and 14%solarEE Strategy Objective : 12% savings by 2020 and15% by 2030 (Industry, Tertiary and Residential,and Transport )ENERGY STRATEGY OBJECTIVE
10EE ENERGY STRATEGY OBJECTIVESThe annual energy savings with respect to theBAU scenario should reach some 4 M toe/yearby 2020 and 6 M toe/year by 2030How we achieve this objective?
Pay Out time of EE Projects25%50%11%14%less than one yearbetween 1 and 3 yearsbetween 3 and 5 yearsmore than 5 yearsCompiled from the results of 411 EE projects identified in 57 energy audits(industry and hotels) carried out in Morocco over the period 1990-2006
12EE is market driven and energysavings will materialize anyway dueto their high potential, high energyprices, high return on investment,increasing CC risks, etc.Myth and reality of EEMaking EE effectively deliver is difficultdue the various operational barriers itusually faces. These barriers areoverlooked and not adequately addressedin the design of most EE programs.
Understanding the building blocks of EE Strategies
14 EE programs design: EE programs usually overlook the end usersneeds, operational constraints and priorities Scale matters : most EE projects are small and not attractiveindividually Hard to sell : have you tried lately to sell an energy audit ( semanticand cultural barrier) ? Tracking Energy Savings: Measuring and tracking energy efficiency isoften technically challenging (for both end users and national levels) Culture change : changing the organization’ culture and individualbehavior and habits is often challenging Energy services providers : Most of EE projects operationalimplementation, and thus energy savings achievement, is driven by theprivate sector (technical energy services providers and financialinstitutions)KEY FACTS ABOUT ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• Set the enabling institutional and regulatory framework:– Strategies and actions plans– Laws and regulations– Adequate financial/fiscal instruments– Capacity building/development– Awareness raising• Promote the favorable framework for ESCOs development• Set the example (Energy efficient public buildings for example, etc. )• Avoid energy services subsidies• Avoid interference with the market and private sectoractivities (too much institutional intervention harms EE)Institutional / Regulatory Framework15
• Enabling institutional and regulatory frameworks• Technical Expertise for a global service :– EE projects– Productivity and process projects– Renewable energy solutions• Financing driven EE services/activities– Integrated offer for technical services identification andevaluation) and projects financingBest Approach to EE Programs Design16