Transformation of Ethiopia’s livestock market systems: Implications for prices, inclusiveness, and resilience

1. Photo Credit Goes Here
Transformation of Ethiopia’s livestock market
systems: Implications for prices, inclusiveness,
and resilience
Bart Minten, IFPRI
May 17th, 2019

2. Quick transformation in
Ethiopia
• Rapid poverty reduction
• Rapid decline in stunting
• However, stunting levels
still very high
• Monotonous diets an
important issue
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2005 2011 2016
%
Stunting Poverty head count

3. Signs of increasing
diversification in the food
basket
• Share of cereals in
expenditures on the
decline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2011 2016
Shareinfoodexpenditures(%)
Cereals
Non-cereals

4. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2006 2011 2016Shareinfoodexpenditures(%)
Animal source foods
Fruits & vegetables
Increasing expenditures on
high-value and nutritious
crops
1/ Animal source foods
(dairy most important)
2/ Fruits and vegetables
(cabbage, onions, tomato,
green pepper most
important)

5. -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Grains, roots and tubers
Legumes and nuts
Dairy products (milk, yogurt, cheese)
Eggs
Flesh foods and others/small animal…
Vitamin A dark green leafy vegetables
Other Vitamin A rich vegetables and…
Other fruits and vegetables
Oils and fats
Sugar and honey
Changes of prices in 2016 compared to 2007 (%)
However, part of increased expenditures to pay for increased prices

6. Seemingly not enough supply response in horticultural
and livestock sector
For livestock sector:
• Most growth from increases in the number of livestock
• Number of livestock lost to deaths more than twice the
number sold for meat production
• Modern input use contributed little to growth
• However, pockets of dynamism – e.g. Addis and
supplying regions for dairy products

7. 0
5
Rural Suburban
Farms with more than 25 cows (per
woreda)
2007 2017
Emergence of commercial farms around Addis
44
28
11
16
Supply pasteurized milk Addis (%)
Rural
Sub-urban
Urban
Large farms

8. Milk yields
200400600800
1000
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
200040006000
yield(l/year/cow)
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

9. Adoption cross-bred cows
0
.1.2.3
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
.2.4.6.8
1
sharecross-bredcows
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

10. Purchase pre-mixed feed brands
0
.2.4.6.8
Shareusingpre-mixedfeedbrands
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
.25
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier

11. Services – Availability extension
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 50 100 150
Travel costs (birr/person)
at time of survey 10 years earlier
0
.2.4.6.8
1
ShareDAs(mostly)available
1-2 cows 3-24 cows >24 cows
at time of survey 10 years earlier

12. - Ethiopia successful in cereal sector
- Less so for nutritious crops, and more in
particular in livestock sector
- More attention needed:
1. Want to keep prices low - Nutritional benefits
2. Massive demand changes are coming
- Pay attention to inclusiveness as to improve
resilience of small and remote
Conclusions