Professor Richard Eckard's extensive presentation details a host of event and organisations geared around understanding greenhouse gases in agriculture and working towards an adaptive, productive future.
9. • Research
– Adaptation
• Winter chilling for fruit trees
• AGFACE
• Heat stress
– Methane, nitrous oxide, soil carbon
– Whole farm systems analysis
• ERF and adaptation options
• Grazing systems in future climates
• Education
– Graduate Certificate in Climate Change
– E&O National Carbon Farming Training
– Post graduate students & scholarships
PICCC
10. • 25 mitigation modelling studies
– Systems
• Northern beef system
• Prime lamb and wool
• Dairy
– Carbon neutral systems
– Soil carbon
– Alternative forages and legumes
– Early joining, early finishing, fertility, longevity
– Diet supplements (oils, nitrates)
– Nitrogen fertiliser and inhibitors
– Environmental plantings
• Summaries on the PICCC web site
PICCC Modelling studies
11. • Enteric methane
– 3‐nitrooxypropanol (NOP)
• 30% less methane
• 168 g/d LWG
• Soil carbon modelling (low & high SOC)
– Birchip
• 280 to 770 kg DM/ha from PAWHC
• $26 ‐ $95/ha/y
– Hamilton
• 560 to 900 kg DM/ha from N mineralisation
• $85 to $105/ha/y
New research from PICCC
12. • Soil carbon
– zero tillage and stubble retention increased SOC
• In some cases but not others
– Bare fallow in rotations reduced SOC
• Compared to continuous cropping
– Rotation with pulse crop, medic or lucerne increased
SOC
• In some cases but not others
– Nitrogen and water had the biggest effect
– Combinations had the biggest effect
• Stubble retention + zero tillage + legume N input +
elimination of fallow, plus rainfall
New research from PICCC
Robertson et al. 2015
13. • CH4 (g/d) = 20.7 x DMI (kg/d)
– 10 Mt CO2‐e less methane
– 21% reduction
• 2006 IPCC Guidelines for NGGIs
– EF for methane from 21 to 25 GWP
– Increases livestock methane by 19%
• Removed N2O from legume N2 fixation
• Indirect N2O from ammonia
– Same EF as the system it came from
Changes to Inventory
Charmley et al. 2015
16. • ERF has three elements:
– Crediting emissions reductions
• Develop a project against a method(s)
– Purchasing emissions reductions
• The reverse auction process
• ERF $2.55 billion over 5 years
– Safeguarding emissions reductions
• Making sure other entities don’t increase emissions
The Emission Reduction Fund
ERF legislated
Safeguard
rules
developed
Safeguard
mechanism
consultation
First ERF
auction
Commence
review of
ERF
Safeguard
mechanism
commences
December
2014
15‐16 April
2015
Jan‐Oct 2015 End 2015 July 2016
17. • Safeguard required
– Emitters over 100,000 t CO2e/y
– Baseline from NGERS
– Cap set at maximum 2009/10 to 2013/14
– Multi‐year averaging allowed
• To start 1 July 2016
– Rules and guidelines by October 2015
• The secondary market
– Surrender ACCUs above the cap
– Needs a declining cap
• Could then become a market mechanism
ERF and safeguard
mechanism
19. • 107 Carbon Abatement Contracts
– Covering 144 projects & 43 contractors
• Largest 3.5 Mt CO2e
• Smallest 12,000 t CO2e
– Total of 47Mt CO2e contracted
– Total spend $660M
• 26% of the budget
• Average price /t CO2e = $13.95
– Spent 26% of the budget
– Meets 15% of the (5%) 236Mt target by 2020
1st ERF Auction summary
20. 1st ERF Auction summary
Volume Contract period Final date
t CO2e Years
506,858 3 2018
220,000 5 2020
18,854,064 7 2022
27,752,218 10 2025
• Existing target ‐ 5% below 2000 in 2020
• New target ‐ 26 to 28% below 2005 in 2030
• Climate change Authority states 40 – 60% is needed
23. • 2nd auction ‐ 4th and 5th November 2015
– 543 Eligible offset projects
– 399 registered to participate
• 129 Carbon Abatement Contracts
– 131 projects & 77 contractors
• Largest 2.5 MtCO2e
• Smallest 15,333 t CO2e
• Total of 45 Mt CO2e contracted
– 70% in the land‐use sector
• Total spend $557 million
– Average price $12.25 ($11‐13 safe bid range)
– 53% of total budget spent
2nd ERF Auction summary
24. • Predicted
– Total ERF may meet 45 ‐ 50% of the 236 Mt CO2e
5% by 2020 target
• Many contracts deliver after 2020
• Avoided deforestation does not reduce emissions
• No bids from major energy and resource sectors
– 2030 target of ‐26 to ‐28% below 2005 levels?
– Not enough to curb net emissions growth
• Unless the Safeguard mechanism includes a declining
baseline
Summary of Auctions
25. Status of ERF projects and ACCUs
as at 04/08/2015
Methods Projects ACCUs
Agriculture
Methane from piggeries 8 101,212
Dairy anaerobic ponds 0 0
Feeding dietary oils in dairy 0 0
Feeding nitrates to beef cattle 0 0
Soil carbon in grazing 6 0
Savanna burning 40 1,436,299
Vegetation
Avoided Deforestation 10 142,836
Regeneration of Native Forest 55 334,088
Managed Regrowth 12 337,939
Permanent Mallee Plantings 2 22,573
Reforestation and Afforestation 17 589,080
Environmental or Mallee Plantings 24 65,921
Avoided Deforestation 42 4,676,977
Permanent Environmental Plantings 39 430
Landfill and industrial
Alternative Waste Treatment 11 429,976
Diversion of Legacy Waste 1 12,761
Landfill gas 58 5,731,820
Designated Verified Carbon Standard Projects 2 0
Land and Sea Transport 2 0
Landfill Gas from Legacy Waste 24 1,778,266
Coal Mine Waste Gas 2 0
Industrial Electricity and Fuel Efficiency 2 0
26. Sector Methods
Agriculture • Methane from piggeries
• Methane from dairy manure
• Fertiliser efficiency in cotton *
• Feeding nitrate to beef cattle *
• Feeing dietary oils to dairy cattle
• Soil carbon in grazing systems
• Soil carbon using default values *
• Beef herd method *
Vegetation
management
• Avoided clearing of native regrowth
• Avoided Deforestation
• Designated Verified Carbon Standard projects
• Regeneration of a permanent native forest
• Measurement of new farm forestry
• Native forest from managed regrowth
• Reforestation and Afforestation
• Reforestation by Environmental or Mallee Plantings
• Savanna fire management
Approved ERF Methods
27. Sector Methods
Energy efficiency • Aggregated small energy users
• Commercial and public lighting
• Commercial building energy efficiency
• Industrial Electricity and Fuel Efficiency
• Refrigeration and Ventilation Fans
Mining • Coal mine waste gas
• Oil and gas fugitives
Transport • Aviation
• Land and sea transport
Waste and wastewater • Alternative waste treatment
• Landfill gas
• Wastewater treatment
Facilities • Facilities
Approved ERF Methods
28. Project development costs
Initial Registration $10,000 per project
Monitoring/Sampling $3,500 per project/per year
Reporting $5,000 per project/per report
Cost of participation
Audit Costs
Methodology Initial audit fee On‐going audit fee Site visit fee
Cattle projects $13,250 $9,000 $1,000
Savanna & sequestration $11,250 $9,000 $1,000
Total Carbon Expenses
Methodology Cost Years
Cattle projects $100,000 7 years
Avoided clearing / managed
regrowth
$150,000 25 years
Savanna fire management $200,000 25 years
Source: Phil Cohn, RAMP Carbon
37. • Net reductions in emissions
– Important for the planet
– Align with less intensive, more resilient systems
– May not align with
• Meeting food production targets
• Productivity gains and profitability in Ag
• Emissions intensity
– Aligns better with
• Sustainability reporting ‐ Carbon footprint
• Increasing productivity, profit and food targets
– BUT – total emissions may rise
Mitigation vs Adaption
46. • Plant life
– CO2 fertilising effect
• Boosting growth by as much as a 13 to 30%
– Temperate plants (e.g. wheat) more than tropical (e.g. corn)
• But only where there are no other limitations
– Water, nutrients, temperature
– Improved water efficiency
• Close the stomata on the leave to reduce CO2 intake
• Means less water loss
– Plant composition
• Lower nitrogen (protein) & higher sugars
• Marine life
– Acidity (carbonic acid) reduces calcification (CaCO3)
– Larvae sensitive to pH
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
47. • Summer rainfall regions
– Crops & pastures are reliant on summer rainfall
• Highly variable, but no clear trend
– Increased extreme rain events
• Winter rainfall regions
– Crops & pastures are reliant on winter rainfall
• Becoming less & more variable
• Distribution is more important than total
– e.g. timing of the Autumn Break is critical
• Change seasonality of growth
Rainfall effects
48. • Animals
– Breed, type, species
– Drinking water, mist‐sprays
– Shade/ shelter
• Crops
– Breeding, cultivars, crop
– Time of planting, harvesting, grazing, pruning
– Changing location (move south/ coastwards)
– Shade cloth, irrigation
• Systems
– More (bio) diversity
– Increased risk management
Adaptations
49. • Kangaroos
– Adjust reproduction to seasonal conditions
• Lemons
– Warmer, sunny climates with mild winters
• Maize over wheat & barley
– In temperate regions
• Olives
– Hot and dry conditions
• Sweet potatoes
– Hot conditions, tolerates drought, adaptive
Some standouts