Recombinant DNA technology (Immunological screening)
Improved seasonal forecast service from the Bureau of Meteorology
1. Dr. Andrew Watkins (abw@bom.gov.au)
MCV Climate Week 17 November 2015
Improved Seasonal Forecast Service
Climate Outlooks now and in the future
2. The Bureau's Climate Prediction service
• ENSO Wrap Up
• ENSO Tracker
• Model Summary
• Weekly Tropical Climate Note
• Tropical Cyclone outlook
• Northern Rainfall Onset
• Seasonal Outlooks
• Videos
• Briefings/engagement/ministerials/high level advice
3. • 5% of GDP ($58B) exposed to annual climate variability
• Bureau (and climate science can influence Australia’s ability to respond
effectively
• Potential value of climate forecasts is >$1.5B
• Departures from “normal” are increasing due to global warming
The Bureau's Climate Outlook service
4. 1996
The Climate Outlook service – Seasonal Outlook
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ 1989-now
1989 2015
5. The Climate Outlook service – Seasonal Outlook
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/
• Temperature and rainfall
• Can add more variables
• Model is reliable
• Engaging and intuitive
• Large user base
• Operationally supported
• State of the art/science
6. Skill of the model – seasonal (rainfall)
Lead time 10 days [Multiple lead times possible 0-50days, 5 day increments]
Hindcast Forecast
7. Skill of the model – monthly (rainfall)
Lead time 10 days [Multiple lead times possible 0-50days, 5 day increments]
Hindcast Forecast
8. Skill of the model – fortnightly (rainfall)
Lead time 0 days
Hindcast Forecast
9. Skill of the model – seasonal (rainfall) vs statistical
Lead time 10 days [Multiple lead times possible 0-50days, 5 day increments]
System Period BSS REL RES PC
Statistical 1981-2010 0.3% 0.0028 0.0028 51.7% (45.4,58.1)
POAMA-lagged (10 day) 1981-2010 5.2% 0.0015 0.014 54.0% (53.0,69.2)
Statistical 2000-2011 2.7% 0.0022 0.0078 58.3% (47.8,68.7)
POAMA-lagged (10 day) 2000-2011 5.0% 0.0049 0.017 64.0% (47.5,78.7)
Statistical 1950-1979 1.3% 0.00035 0.00338 51.2% (45.5-56.2)
Statistical 1950-1999 0.55% 0.00095 0.00228 50.3% (45.9-54.8)
Statistical 1980-1999 -0.77% 0.00385 0.00173 49.1% (41.9-56.7)
Charles et al., (2015)
10. Areas for improvement…
• Coarse 250km grid resolution
• Limited compatibility with decision support models
• No explicit climate change signal
• Gap between days and months
• Skill remains modest
• Model differs from weather model
11. SEASONAL
OUTLOOKSBETTER
Finer
model detail
More outlook
periods
Higher outlook
skill
World class
service
Bigger user
returns
Moving from
250 km to 60 km
resolution
meaning
more localised information
by accounting for local
conditions
Australia:120 to
2000 grid points
Seamless: filling
the gap between
7-day and monthly
outlooks
Outlooks
updated
weekly
Season
Month
Fortnight
Week
Likely 10% improvement
in outlook accuracy
meaning
the best outlooks for Australia
of all international models
meaning
information is clear, concise and
available when and where you need it
+
Not only
rainfall and
temperature
More intelligence possible:
• Evaporation
• Humidity
• Wind
• Drought
• Extremes
• Tropical Cyclones
Reduce losses: agricultural
production lost from 2010-11 La Niña:
More than $2 billion
Potential value of improved
seasonal forecasts:
More than $1 billion per year
ABARES Centre for International Economics 2014
13. Improved resolution
• Resolution improves from 250 km to 60 km
• Resolves the Great Dividing Range, Tasmania, WA Darling Ranges, Pilbara (Tom Price)
Metress
14. Better model climate
• Able to provide more realistic climate patterns
• Link to decision support tools (e.g., fire models, crop models etc)
August Mean Rainfall
POAMA-2 Observations ACCESS-S
mm/dayy
15. Better model climate
• Able to provide more realistic climate patterns
• Link to decision support tools (e.g., fire models, crop models etc)
August Mean Rainfall
POAMA-2 Observations ACCESS-S
mm/day
16. Better model climate
• Able to provide more realistic weather sequences/climate patterns
• Link to decision support tools (e.g., fire models, crop models etc)
mm/day
17. More accurate outlooks
• Early testing shows improved accuracy for rainfall
• Better predictions of El Niño / La Niña
NINO3.4: all start months
El Niño forecast accuracyRainfall forecast accuracy
New
model
18. Heat extremes case studies
September 2013
Monthly temperature forecast
Source: ABC online
20. Where to next?
• 2015: Obtain feedback on current service and priorities for improvement
→ Develop service solutions
• 2016: Test deployment of new model
• 2017: First deployment of new outlook service (including multi-week)
• 2018: Further upgrade to model (physics, initial conditions)
• 2019: New outlooks service deployed