Search Incrementality: How Paid and Organic Overdeliver Together - Jon Kagan, 9Rooftops

KEYNOTE
Jon Kagan
VP, SEARCH & BIDDABLE
9ROOFTOPS
Search Incrementality:
How Paid and Organic
Overdeliver Together
SAN FRANCISCO, CA ~ JUNE 2 - 3, 2022
DIGIMARCONSILICONVALLEY.COM | #DigiMarConSiliconValley

@JonKagan
Search Incrementality:
How Paid and Organic Overdeliver Together
SEO+SEM: The Infamous 1+1=3 Theory

@JonKagan
Agenda
• Who is this weird person on stage speaking to you?
This is how things are going flow
The Fluff

@JonKagan
Agenda
• Who does this weird person work for?
The Fluff

@JonKagan
Agenda
• When people tell me they can pause SEM and be just fine with organic
rankings
The Fluff

@JonKagan
Agenda
rankings
• The search theory of 1+1=3 Part you should pay
attention to
The Fluff

@JonKagan
Agenda
rankings
• The search theory of 1+1=3
• Real evidence of the theory in motion
Part you should pay
attention to
The Fluff

@JonKagan
Agenda
rankings
• Understand how to measure and test this on your own
Part you should pay
attention to
The Fluff

@JonKagan
Agenda
rankings
• Understand how to measure and test this on your own
• The takeaway
Part you should pay
attention to
The Fluff

@JonKagan
The fluff: Who I am, where I work,
what we do, and who we work with

@JonKagan
Who am I?
Jon Kagan
VP of Search & Biddable
Media
Years in Digital: 17
• 16 of 17 Years Agency Side
• Spent time with Forbes, WPP, and Publicis
• The leader of the very first Google Premier Partner certified agency
• Specializes in highly regulated industries (healthcare/pharma, financial services, etc)
• 2013 Recipient of Google Search Excellence Award (and no, that award no longer exists)
• 2x Finalist for Bing Agency Awards-Optimizer and Innovator of the Year
• Finalist for 3x OMMA Search Innovation Award Finalist
• Named one of the top 25 for most influential SEM marketer by PPC Hero in 2019, 2020 and 2021 (note: my rank in 2021 dropped and my
team reminds me daily)
• Why am I here?: I am incredibly desperate for human contact and my dog was sick and tired of me
• Fun Facts: Former firefighter, devout fan of the New York Jets (yes, they are terrible), love watching Real Housewives of ATL and I have a
small flock of chickens (follow @CTChickenDad on Instagram to see them)

@JonKagan
FIELD MKTG HUBS
ATHENS, AUSTIN, BATON ROUGE, COLUMBUS, CHARLESTON, CHARLOTTESVILLE, DAYTONA, EAST LANSING, FOGGY BOTTOM, GAINESVILLE, HOUSTON, JERSEY SHORE, LOS ANGELES, MADISON, MINNEAPOLIS,
NASHVILLE, NEW BRUNSWICK, NORFOLK, PENSACOLA, PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO , SYRACUSE, TEMPE, WASHINGTON, DC

@JonKagan
16
Some of the clients we work on

@JonKagan
When people tell me they can pause SEM
and be fine with just organic listings

@JonKagan
When people tell me they can pause SEM and be fine with just organic listings
How about…No

@JonKagan
• No, just no

@JonKagan
• No, just no
• I get asked this, no less than 4 times a year
• Only 1 time in my career did it ever prove out to work

@JonKagan
• No, just no
• After I say a variety of inappropriate comments to them, I provide them with the insight of the
informally named theory of 1+1=3

@JonKagan
• No, just no
• After I say a variety of inappropriate comments to them, I provide them with the insight of the
informally named theory of 1+1=3
• After completing my explanation, 90% of them step away from the plan to stop SEM

@JonKagan
• The presence of SEM ads are a vital support unit to organic
rankings
• Think of organic and SEM together as your child’s Halloween
candy

@JonKagan
rankings
candy
• When I go looking for a milk chocolate covered treat, I look for
just that, a generic chocolate treat

@JonKagan
rankings
candy
• When I go looking for a milk chocolate covered treat, I look for
just that, a generic chocolate treat
• But when I have a variety of paid and organic listings for the
same, and similarly adjacent products, then I am more apt to
engage with them

@JonKagan
Search Incrementality Geniuses
“My milkshake brings all the boys to the yard
And they're like, it's better than yours
Damn right it's better than yours
I can teach you, but I have to charge”
– Kelis ‘Milkshake’

@JonKagan
A live look at my HR rep after seeing the prior slide and realizing no
one approved the deck and not sure where this about to go

@JonKagan
What Kelis really means
• “My milkshake brings all the boys to the yard” – While often confused for a reference of
her physical features to attract suitors, this actually means that her methodology for a
holistic approach to search, does in fact drive incremental site visits, despite no
additional lift in impressions

@JonKagan
• “And they’re like, it’s better than yours” – No, this is not an indication by Kelis that her
physical features exceed that of her peers, but actually a description of a search
consumers confidence level on a brand, when both SEO and SEM are visibly present on
brand search queries

@JonKagan
• “Damn right it’s better than yours” – Not a reaffirmation of the verbal indication in the
prior note, instead, this actually just a gloating statement of a search consumers
confidence level of a specific brand, when both SEO and SEM are visibly present on non-
brand search queries

@JonKagan
• “I can teach you, but I have to charge” – Kelis is not referencing a required payment
from said peer in order to share her tactics on how she attained specific physical
features, but actually her way of indicating that you do in fact need to pay for SEM ads,
in conjunction with SEO efforts to successfully execute this strategy

@JonKagan
Kelis was right
+ SEO by itself provides 1, SEM by itself provides 1, but together,
we see increased opportunity

@JonKagan
Kelis was right
+ Having both organic paid present at the same time on the SERP,
provides greater visibility for the brand, creating higher opportunity
of a CTR

@JonKagan
Kelis was right
of a CTR
+ It is highly recommended to test this out on your own, but be sure
to preset measurement expectations

@JonKagan
Kelis was right
of a CTR
+ It is highly recommended to test this out on your own, but be sure
to preset measurement expectations
+ There are a few brands that have pulled it off, but they are usually
only marketplaces and run a lot of non-search media to scale brand
awareness

@JonKagan
Search Incrementality
The theory of 1+1=3
• Disclaimer: I did not create or author this theory or original study
• The concept has been around since at least 2009. Back then in DMNews, Melissa Mackey,
wrote an article on it*
• The most formal analysis and study on it was done in 2010 for NYU by grad students Sha
Yang and Anindya Ghose**
• It is a fascinating read, but prepare for a lot of heavy text and some math equations
*https://issuu.com/dmnews/docs/dmnews-search-guide-2009
**http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~aghose/paidorganic.pdf

@JonKagan
The theory of 1+1=3
• The theory, while seemingly illogical is as follows:
1. Assume organic listings, operating by itself (without SEM), produces 100 visitors to your
website
2. Assume you have 0 organic listings for a search, and SEM stands in and gets you 100
visitors to the website
3. Theoretically when you have organic listings present, and SEM keywords on, the two
efforts together would generate just 100 visitors to the website

@JonKagan
The theory of 1+1=3
• Numerous studies and analysis have shown, when organic listings and SEM keywords are
both present for a search query, more than 100 website visitors are observed
• Hence, the concept of incrementality, or 1+1=3
• Yes, I know it could just be 1+1=1.01, but that isn’t as sexy as an equation

@JonKagan
Providing real evidence to the theory

@JonKagan
Evidence of this theory – The case of the missing bacon
• The most recent time I tested this for a client in full, was by accident

@JonKagan
• The Scenario:
• Brand is mid to large consumables brand, literally selling bacon online (yum) via a DTC
ecom capability on their website

@JonKagan
• The Scenario:
• Brand has been operating in Google Ads for years, paying by credit card, when it abruptly
shuts off without notice (would turn out the credit card had been stolen and shut off), a
new card isn’t going to be available for some time

@JonKagan
• The Scenario:
• Brand has been operating in Google Ads for years, paying by credit card, when it abruptly
shuts off without notice (would turn out the credit card had been stolen and shut off), a
new card isn’t going to be available for some time
• Until this point, Google organic and Google SEM made up 23% each of site visits

@JonKagan
• When Google SEM efforts turned off, the combined Google search efforts fell on the shoulders
of Google organic traffic

@JonKagan
• Google organic contribution of total site traffic should’ve risen to 42%-46%

@JonKagan
• Google organic contribution of total site traffic should’ve risen to 42%-46%
• Instead, it only reached 36% of visits, transactions, which previously combined reached 36%
of total transactions, only reached 29%

@JonKagan
• Upon relaunching of Google SEM efforts, data returned to near identical pre-organic only
levels

@JonKagan
• The primary element to note is, the presence of organic rankings, without SEM, was unable to
compensate for the total opportunity

@JonKagan
Evidence of this theory – Automotive Accessories
• This time, a planned 2 week test, where only branded keywords were paused (Google only)
• Measurement, was evaluated based on traffic (primary) and quotes (secondary)
• Google entities* made up 70% of visits and 73% of quotes pre-test
*Source Medium “google/yext” is considered google/organic

@JonKagan
• During the test, the number of visits and quotes contributed as a percentage in total were
relatively the same as pre-test
• The volume of sessions during the test declined 11% and quotes declined 14%

@JonKagan
• 2 weeks post test, revealed mixed results
• Total contribution of visits and conversions remained at same or near same levels, visits
increased 6% over test levels (half of pre-test), but quotes declined vs that of test levels

@JonKagan
Evidence of this theory – Cleaner that Couldn’t Clean Up
• After an unusual ROI analysis came back to the brand of all media, it indicated that paid
search produced the lowest (indirect), ROI of all media channels
• At the time of this analysis, Google SEM and SEO combined accounted for roughly 70% of
total users and sessions (50% Google organic and 20% Google SEM)
• Specifically Google branded SEM accounted for 12% of total site traffic

@JonKagan
• Client elects that if SEM is low driver then bidding on brand terms is redundant, and they have
heavy non-digital media pushing awareness, therefore, in their minds, they shouldn’t be
paying for 12% of total site traffic that should easily find them organically

@JonKagan
• Decision was dictated by the client to cease bidding on brand terms and let organic rankings
handle brand queries

@JonKagan
• Non-brand would remain funded

@JonKagan
• Non-brand would remain funded
• By this logic, Google organic, if it was to compensate for branded SEM going offline, would
need to increase by 24% of site visits/visitors, going from 50% to 62%

@JonKagan
• This theory has not panned out well for the brand
• By any sort of logic, organic data should increase, if not a little bit, then by the amount
surrendered by SEM with brand going offline

@JonKagan
• But, no
• Organic traffic actually declined in total traffic
contribution, dropping from 50% to ~37%
• Google SEM, without the aid of brand, dropped
from 20% to 8%
• The logic of operating without brand SEM and
organic compensating for it, has been deemed
as a net loss for Google entities
*Note in the chart shared, Google CPC includes GDN and YouTube, but was stripped out when doing
the analysis

@JonKagan
Evidence of this theory
• In all three scenarios, it is evident, that when dropping to a single source (or reduced source)
of search traffic, organic itself, struggles to deliver the same amount of inbound site traffic,
then if both were present at once

@JonKagan
Understand how to measure and
test this on your own

@JonKagan
How to understand the value of SEM and Organic together
• There is a simplistic to approach it, and a more detailed way to approach it
• Simplistic:
1. Understand your current production of search for SEM and organic and tally it all up

@JonKagan
• Simplistic:
2. Pause SEM part of the efforts (run this for 1-3 weeks)

@JonKagan
• Simplistic:
3. Track organic and SEM production during the pause, note if there has been any change
in the combined production

@JonKagan
• Simplistic:
4. Reactivate SEM, go back to normal operations for the same period the time ran for

@JonKagan
• Simplistic:
4. Reactivate SEM, go back to normal operations for the same period the time ran for
5. Compare pre, in, and post test data, to show you the difference in traffic and KPI’s

@JonKagan
• Detailed:
1. Track current production of search for SEM and organic

@JonKagan
• Detailed:

@JonKagan
• Detailed:
in queries of the words you paused (use Google Search Console for this)

@JonKagan
• Detailed:
4. Reactivate SEM, return to normal operations for the same period the time ran for

@JonKagan
• Detailed:
4. Reactivate SEM, return to normal operations for the same period the time ran for
5. Compare pre, in, and post test data, to show you the difference in traffic and KPI’s

@JonKagan
The takeaway
• Yes, the concept of SEO+SEM is = to that of 1+1=3
• Very few brands successfully get away with not having to bid on SEM terms without an
adverse impact or missed opportunity
• In recent years, similar to this, a number of large brands have complained (and at least 1
lawsuit) about even having to bid on their brand terms (largely because competition does),
and honestly, this is the cost of doing business
• While I do not advocate at all for turning off SEM and going organic only, I do recommend
everyone should try it once and see for themselves

@JonKagan
The end…go home
Thank you for sitting through this!
If you loved it/hated it/felt I needed more pictures of my chickens, or
just have comments or questions in general, you can reach me:
• Email: JKagan@9Rooftops.com
• Twitter: @JonKagan (I am more likely to respond here)
• #GoJets!

Search Incrementality: How Paid and Organic Overdeliver Together - Jon Kagan, 9Rooftops

Search Incrementality: How Paid and Organic Overdeliver Together - Jon Kagan, 9Rooftops

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Search Incrementality: How Paid and Organic Overdeliver Together - Jon Kagan, 9Rooftops

Similar to Search Incrementality: How Paid and Organic Overdeliver Together - Jon Kagan, 9Rooftops (20)

More from DigiMarCon - Digital Marketing, Media and Advertising Conferences & Exhibitions

More from DigiMarCon - Digital Marketing, Media and Advertising Conferences & Exhibitions (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Search Incrementality: How Paid and Organic Overdeliver Together - Jon Kagan, 9Rooftops