SCENARIO PLANNING – Course OutlineScenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power ofcreative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuineuncertainty. (Pierre Wack)Scenario planning opens the future to multiple perspectives – rather than a single,business-as-usual, view of what the future will hold. Scenario approach is amethodology, providing space for input from stakeholders, expert and non-traditional -even maverick - views. The methodology is capable of integrating the multitude ofseemingly unrelated, often chaotic, inputs into a limited number of coherent, internallyconsistent stories about the future; thus providing a basis for building successfulstrategies and organizations.Scenario planning is not about forecasting the future but looking at all the possibilities. Itinvolves using and building on a key resource - the information already known by peoplewithin the organization, but enriched with external non-traditional perspectives. Scenariobased thinking is a powerful and effective tool to drive strategy and organizationaldevelopment towards managerial and organizational success.To remain effective in strategy and inter-active policy and to avoid policy disasters thepolicy makers need to be able to handle increasing levels of dynamic complexity. Beingable to notice “dots on the horizon” and bringing possible future developments into thestrategic conversation in a timely manner is a key skill.Scenario based thinking enables policy makers and strategists to:q Explore multiple, plausible, pathways into the future.q Approach the issues from multi-disciplinary perspectivesq Tap into relevant disciplinary expert knowledge and embed this in the broader policy perspectiveq Tap into new and non-traditional views on the issueq Involve a broad spectrum of key stakeholders in the strategic conversationsThe course is focused on organizational survival: the reasons why private-sectororganizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it. Within public-sectororganizations, the focus remains on the failure or ineffectiveness of policy development.Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking andbehavioral flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. This Course explainswhat these flaws are and how the scenario based approach helps senior managers andorganizations to overcome them. The approach is based on reasoning, research, realworld observations – and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking,combining the most effective elements of many scenario approaches that have beentried over time.This course is aimed at explaining why Scenario Planning:q Is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations.
q Is valuable in resolving a strategic issue or problem – current or potential – by enabling innovation and creative thinking “outside the box”.q Can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.q Supports effective organizational learning and development.q Is a key component of a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival.The methodology can be traced back to hundreds of years of experience with wargames by the military but it is only in the last 30 years, in the face of increasinguncertainty and complexity, that corporations and other large, global organizations havebegun to develop sophisticated scenario planning processes. Through the services ofthe Center these approaches are now available to a wide spectrum of organizations,including both the public and private sectors, and their managers.The Course is based on gaining knowledge by participation and is highly interactive.Participants work in groups, select a case “client” – one of the delegates – and analyzethe case in some depth using the components of our scenario thinking process. As such,delegates will gain confidence in the use of tools to deal with uncertainty, ambiguity andrisk in policy /strategy development.Course aims and descriptionDuring the Course, delegates will develop multiple scenarios and strategy analysis forthe selected case and present these outcomes to the whole class for discussion andanalysis. The Course coordinator will provide tuition, facilitation, and analysis of eachgroup’s work. In this way, participants will experience and explore issues in carrying outa scenario planning analysis of a strategic issue.Overview of Course contentSession 1: General introduction, Concept of Scenario PlanningSession 2: Select a ‘client’, Identifying knowledge gapsSession 3: STEEP ANALYSISSession 4: Analysis of driving forces, Key factorsSession 5: Clustering driving forces and plot them against the highest impact and highest uncertainty (Group work)Session 6: Framing the Scenarios, Filling the Scenario ScopeSession 7: Preparation of storylines, presentation of results, learning points (Group work)Session 8: Stakeholder Analysis/Power/Interest MatrixSession 9: Secondary/Literature Research for Story of FutureSession 10: Primary Research for StoriesSession 11: Linking Scenarios to StrategySession 12: Final Draft and PresentationSession 13: Video PreparationSession 14: Report Writing and Publishing ScenariosSession 15: Revision and ConclusionKnowledge outcomes
q Awareness of practitioner approaches to policy/strategy development that explicitly allow for uncertainty and ambiguity in the business environment.q Understanding of the limitations to organizational perception, and ways to increase the range of vision of organizations.q Awareness of intervention possibilities, their purposes and approaches.q Understanding of the relationship between organizational policy/decision processes and uncertainty/ambiguity, and the relevance of scenario planning in this.Skill outcomesq Being able to initiate a scenario planning process in a practical setting in one’s own organization.q Being able to apply new tools for analyzing the business environment more effectively.q Being able to apply new tools for analyzing the strategic characteristics of one’s own organization.q Being more effective in communicating on issues concerning organizational perception and learning.Scenario Planning promotes and supports:q Understanding and thinking about the impact of external factors upon future-oriented organizational strategic thinking and policy developmentq An integrative approach to investigation and analysis of complexity and ambiguity in the external environmentq Consideration of factors of globalization and localization in relation to contexts of businessq The opportunity to learn and experiment with the use of scenario planning as an action-learning tool.The Course does not involve extensive taught elements of “knowledge delivery”. Rather,it is intended to support and facilitate critical and reflective learning and knowledgeconstruction. The participants will develop awareness of diversity and ambiguity, and ofthe contextual nature of knowledge. The Course will challenge your own perspectives onthe world and will take your thinking and investigation - outside the realm of developed-world, profit-seeking, organizations.Dr. Awais e SirajDr. Awais is an international trainer, learning facilitator and managing director of GenzeeSolutions. About 15 years earlier, he joined pharmaceutical industry after doing his MBAfrom Strathclyde Graduate Business School in Glasgow, UK. He has more than adecade of experience in Marketing and Sales in addition to Medical and RegulatoryAffairs. His last industry assignment was with Boston Scientifics’ regional office in Beirut,Lebanon as Country Sales Manager. An all-time learner, Awais has been enlightened bytraining and education in Pakistan, United Kingdom, USA, France, Germany, Lebanon,Malaysia and Singapore.He has a proven record of a successful manager, team leader and a professional withwinning mind-set. In his role as coach, facilitator, and consultant he has groomed peoplefrom Micronet Broadband and Nayatel, Abbott, Amson, Ferozsons, Roche, British HighCommission, Action Aid, B Braun, Bayer – Schering, Pourateb (Iran), Khushali Bank, U
Fone, PTCL, Air Weapons Complex, Sukhi, DOVE, IYF, Habib Bank, Amgomed, UNDP,Ericsson, National Commission of Biotechnology, Clough, Nestle, Schering Plough,Mobilink, Ministry of Information Technology, Fauji Fertilizer Company, PSO, GetzPharma, Reko Pharmacal, PARCO, Ministry of Tourism, HHRD, Digital Prodigy Pvt. Ltd.PharmEvo, GlaxoSmithKline, ICI, Medisure, Chas a. Mendoza and others.His involvement in academic research, teaching, training and people developmentconnected him initially to CIIT, Islamabad, and later with Bahria University, Islamabad asAssistant Professor in the Department of Management Sciences.Dr. Awais has been a speaker at LUMS, University of Punjab, NUST, PIMSAT,Marketing Association of Pakistan, National Defense University, Thames BusinessSchool, Quaid e Azam University, National Commission on Rural Development,COMSTECH, HEC, and COMSATS. Dr. Awais spearheaded the establishment ofLeadership Development Center (Corporate Training Initiative) at Bahria University,Islamabad.He is the author of a book “The Art and Craft of Pharmaceutical Selling”. He is also ascholar of PhD at University of Leicester, United Kingdom.Please access his detailed CV at:www.genzeesolutions.com www.awaisesiraj.comScenario Planning: Selected Reading ListGetting startedvan der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester & New York:John Wiley & Sons, 1996 & 2005 (2nd edition) A general conceptual and methodologicaloverview. http://www.wiley.com/van der Heijden K, Bradfield R, Burt G, Cairns G and Wright G: The Sixth Sense, AcceleratingOrganisational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester & New York: John Wiley & Sons,2002 Develops scenario planning, and its underpinning methodology, with organisationallearning. Discusses the psychological barriers to organisational learning.http://www.wiley.com/Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and YourCompany. (2nd edition) New York: Doubleday Currency, 1996. The most-read introduction tothe subject of scenario planning.Ringland, Gill. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons,1998. A series of cases and examples. http://www.wiley.com/MethodsAckoff, Russell, Presearch Series, GBN “Placing scenarios in a systemic context”Best, Eric (editor) “Probabilities – Help or Hindrance in Scenario Planning?” Deeper News(Emeryville, CA: GBN) Summer 1991 Do scenarios come with probabilities attached?Fahey, Liam, and Robert M. Randall (eds.), Learning from the Future. New York: John Wiley &Sons, 1997. Various perspectives on scenario planning from a large number of authors.http://www.wiley.com/Van der Heijden, Kees, Presearch Series, GBN “Scenarios, strategy and the strategy process”Integrating scenarios and strategy
Hodgson, Anthony. “Hexagons for Systems Thinking.” European Journal of Operational Research59, no. 1 (1992): 220–230. About a visual facilitation technique to support scenarioplanning.Leemhuis, Jaap “Using Scenarios to Develop Strategies”, Long Range Planning, 18, No. 2(1985). Integrating risk and decision-making with scenario planning. Michael, Don,Presearch Series, GBN On “making things happen”Schoemaker, Paul J. H., and Kees van der Heijden. “Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planningat Royal Dutch/Shell.” Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992): 41–46. How Shell institutionalizedscenario planning in the overall planning process.Vennix, Jac A.M., H.A. Akkermans, E.A.J.A. Rouwette. “Group Model Building to FacilitateOrganizational Change: An Exploratory Study.” Systems Dynamics Review 12, no. 1 (1996): 39–58. About creating group systems thinking.Wilkinson, Lawrence. “How To Build Scenarios.” Wired [Scenarios: 1.01 Special Edition](September 1995): 74–81. One (simple) way of doing itIn PracticeLe Roux, Pieter “The Mont Fleur Scenarios.” Deeper News (Emeryville, CA: Global BusinessNetwork) 7, no. 1 (1997). The multi-stakeholder scenario process in South AfricaOgilvy, James, "Three Scenarios for Higher Education." The Deeper News (Emeryville, CA:Global Business Network) 3, no. 1 (1992); reprinted in Thought & Action: The NEA HigherEducation Journal 9, no.1 (1993). Three scenarios developed with the national educationBoardBrand, Stewart and Schwartz, Peter. Decades of Restructuring: The 1989 GBN Scenario Book.Emeryville, CA, 1989. Driving Forces produce divergent futuresThe Congress of South Africa Trade Unions, September Commission. The Future of the Unions.Johannesburg: COSATU (August 1997) A report to COSATU on scenarios for labour.http://www.cosatu.org.za/congress/sept-ch1.htmDestino Colombia, a Scenario-Planning Process for the New Millennium, Deeper News(Emeryville. CA: GBN) 9, no 1, 1998. Columbia’s national scenario projectInstitute of Economic Affairs and Society for International Development. Kenya at the crossroads:Scenarios for our Future. Nairobi: Institute of Economic affairs, 2000. Kenya’s national scenarioprojectWilkinson, Lawrence and Cowan, Jim. The Logics of Change: The 1995 GBN Scenario Book.Emeryville, CA, 1995. Different logics and implications of changeMcCorduck, Pamela, and Nancy Ramsey. The Futures of Women: Scenarios for the 21stCentury. New York: Addison-Wesley, 1996. A scenaric look at the future of womenPeters, Glen. Beyond the Next Wave: Imagining the Next Generation of Customers. London:Pitman Publishing, 1996. Scenario thinking about new marketsDaimler Benz, Scenarios on the Future of the Internet, by BC Fuller and NN ToliaRosell, Steven A. Changing Maps: Governing in a World of Rapid Change. Ottawa: CarletonUniversity Press, 1995 A scenario discussion on the future of CanadaVision Guatemala (Spanish language)
Guatemal’s national scenario projectWorld Business Council for Sustainable Development Exploring Sustainable Development,WBCSD Global Scenarios 2000-2050Also refer to “Greedy Frogs, balanced Humans, and Improvisational Music: The PlenaryScenarios of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.” Whole Earth Review,Spring 1999. Three scenarios letting businesses envision for the future of sustainabilityScenarios for Scotland University of St. Andrew’s and University of Strathclyde, ScotlandScotland’s post-devolution National scenario projectShell Global Scenarios to 2005 The future business environment: trends, trade-offs andchoices Two scenarios that explore major uncertainties and predetermined elementsCentre for Scenario Planning & Future Studies 3Sources of Scenario ThinkingAshby, W.R. “Self-regulation and Requisite Variety.” In Systems Thinking, edited by F. E. Emery.New York: Penguin, 1983. About the degree of richness in mental models, needed to cope.Bénard, André. “World Oil and Cold Reality.” Harvard Business Review 58, no. 5 (1980): 91–101 Scenarios: making people think.Bradfield, Ron What we know and what we believe: Lessons from cognitive psychologyDevelopment: volume 47, number 4, 35-42 Cognitive limitations impacting scenario thinkingBurt, George. “Epigenetic Change: New from the Seeds of the Old.” Journal of Strategic Change12: 381-393, 2003 Discussion on strategic change from scenario interventionsCalvin, William H. The Cerebral Symphony: Seashore Reflections on the Structure ofConsciousness. New York: Bantam Books, 1989. People have an innate ability to buildscenarios.Churchman, C. West. The Design of Inquiring Systems. New York: Basic Books, 1971. Thelarger systemic context.Colinvaux, Paul A. “Towards a Theory of History: Fitness, Niche and Cluth of Homo Sapiens.”The Journal of Ecology 70, no. 2 (1982): 393–412. Why history happens.Daft, Richard L., and Karl E. Weick. “Toward a Model of Organizations as InterpretationSystems.” Academy of Management Review 9, no. 2 (1984): 284–295. About socialconstruction of reality in organizations.De Geus, Arie. “Planning as Learning.” Harvard Business Review 66, no. 2 (1988): 70–74. Organizational learning as a way to interpret what planners (including scenarioplanners) do.Douglas, Mary. How Institutions Think. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 1986. Theinteraction between thinking and culture.Emery, F. E., and E.L. Trist. “The Causal Texture of Organizational Environments.” HumanRelations 18, no. 1 (1965): 21-32. Categorizing the environment.Forrester, Jay W. Industrial Dynamics. Portland, OR: Productivity Press (originally Cambridge,MA: MIT Press), 1961. How systems thinking was introduced into the world ofmanagement.Gleick, James. Chaos: Making a New Science. New York: Viking Press, 1987. The book that put“intrinsic uncertainty” on the map.
Ingvar, David H. “Memories of the Future: An Essay on the Temporal Organization of ConsciousAwareness.” Human Neurobiology 4, no. 3 (1985): 127–136. Suggesting that we are all naturalscenario planners.Centre for Scenario Planning & Future Studies 4Jungermann, Helmut, and Manfred Thuring. “The Use of Mental Models for GeneratingScenarios.” In Judgmental Forecasting, edited by G. Wright and P. Ayton. Chichester & NewYork: John Wiley & Sons, 1987. A theoretical model of what scenario planning is about.Kleiner, Art. The Age of Heretics: Heroes, Outlaws, and the Forerunners of Corporate Change.New York: Doubleday Currency, 1996. The people behind the thinking.Michael, Donald N. Learning to Plan and Planning to Learn. 2d ed. Alexandria, VA: Miles RiverPress, 1997. The ways planning works as a process of learning.Miller, Danny. “The Architecture of Simplicity.” Academy of Management Review 18, no. 1 (1993):pp. 116–138. How world views simplify over time.Neustadt, Richard, and Ernest R. May. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decisionmakers.New York: Free Press, 1986. What historical thinking has to offer.Ogilvy, James. “Future Studies and the Human Sciences: The Case for Normative Scenarios.”Futures Research Quarterly 8, no. 2 (1992): 5–65. Normative scenarios, the debate continues.Ogilvy, James. “Scenario Planning as the Fulfillment of Critical Theory.” Futures ResearchQuarterly 12, no. 2 (1996): 5–33. Situates scenario planning in the tradition of socialcriticism.Porter, Michael E. “What is Strategy?” Harvard Business Review 74, no. 6 (1996): 61– 74. Fitbetween the organization and its environment.Schnaars, Stephen P. “How to Develop Business Strategies from Multiple Scenarios.” InHandbook of Business Strategy 1986/87, edited by W.D. Guth. Boston: Warren, Gosham andLamont, 1986. Examples of how scenarios influence strategy.Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and BehavioralFoundation.” Strategic Management Journal 14 (1993): 193–213. Scenarios and biases inhuman thinking.Vickers, Geoffrey. Human Systems are Different. New York: Harper & Row, 1983. The extradimension of purpose.Vygotsky, Lev. Thought and Language. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986. What people can andcannot learn.Wack, Pierre. “Scenarios: the Gentle Art of Re-perceiving.” [Working Paper.] Cambridge, MA:Harvard Business School, 1984.“Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63, no. 5 (1985):72–79.Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Review 63, no. 6 (1985): 139–150.