2017 Urbanism Summit Thursday Keynote | Robin Chase - The Future of Transport
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ROBIN CHASE Author, "Peers Inc: How People and Platforms are Inventing the Collaborative Economy and Reinventing Capitalism" She is co-founder and former CEO of Zipcar, the largest carsharing company in the world; Buzzcar, a peer to peer carsharing service in France; and GoLoco, an online ridesharing community. She is also co-founder of Veniam, a vehicle communications company building the networking fabric for the Internet of Moving Things.
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2017 Urbanism Summit Thursday Keynote | Robin Chase - The Future of Transport
- 3. Eisenhower Interstate Highway System 1956 + Levittown, NY 1947-1951
- 4. +
- 5. TODAY: Avg 18% of household income Parking challenging Congestion & Time wasting Excludes young/old/disabled Poor air quality Reduces city livability
- 6. Clean +Walking +Biking +Clean Fuel & Electric
- 10. Technology has Transformed Sharing GPS, Wireless Tech & Internet made CARSHARING possible As easy to rent a car as use your own 30 seconds to reserve/pay for a car Self service pickup/dropoff Reserved “homebase” parking space 1 shared car = 12 personal cars Need less parking People drive less (financially rational)
- 11. Technology has Transformed Sharing With Smart phones, TRANSIT APPS make it easy to know • Which train, bus • What time • Where to get on & where to get off City Benefits: • More riders • Cheaper & better access • Less congestion
- 12. Technology has Transformed Sharing With Smart phones & better AI, taxis can enable real RIDESHARING: • Origin-destination-timing matches City Benefits: • Reduced congestion • Better access
- 16. Sales Promised by 2018-2021 Old guard: ∎ GM ∎ Ford ∎ Toyota ∎ Nissan ∎ Volvo ∎ BMW ∎ Audi ∎ Volkswagen New companies: ∎ Google ∎ Tesla ∎ Uber ∎ Apple ∎ Many startups
- 18. There’s an urgency to our mission about being part of the future. This is not a side project. This is existential for us. UBER CEO Travis Kalanick on deploying Autonomous UBERs in Pittsburgh (August 2016)
- 19. Every month in 2016 has been the hottest on record
- 20. - + Credit: Randall Monroe
- 21. The infrastructure we build over the next 3 years will determine the fate of humanity. -Christiana Figueres
- 22. Most important takeaway: When you take the driver out of the car: THE ECONOMIC THRESHHOLD for moving a vehicle is low. EXPLOSION OF VIABLE USES
- 23. Where this explosion of trips happens matters Exurban Urban
- 24. AV benefits are differentiated by geography. AVs Personal & Electric Exurban FAVES Fleets of AVs that are Electric & Shared Urban. Safety benefits felt here. Fewer cars (shared) & better air quality (electric) key benefits here.
- 25. We are getting a chance to DO OVER cities!
- 26. Cheonggyecheon River in Seoul
- 27. Cheonggyecheon River in Seoul
- 28. Allocate to active modes?
- 29. Suburban warehouse Today’s Retail in Urban Areas
- 32. RATS in cities BAD! RATS in countryside: no problem! Remember DENSITY MATTERS For AV policy & benefits
- 33. 21.3% RED surface parking 3.7% YELLOW above-ground parking garages 2.6% GREEN park space 39.7% STREETS (including sidewalks) 64.7% TOTAL for rights-of-way plus off-street parking Houston, TX 2011
- 35. WRONG: We won’t get there by replacing buses with AV buses Good for bus company Bad for passengers This will NOT encourage the switch from personal cars to FAVES.
- 36. A LIKELY SCENARIO: 5-year transition from CARS to FAVES Year 1: 100 small vehicle pilot in mid-size city (students/tourists) Years 2-5: Expands to 1000 vehicle fleet. Cheaper & more convenient than status quo. First 2nd vehicles sold. Then primary. On some routes, vehicles will become shuttle & bus size. Years 3-5: Other cities need to adopt to be competitive/modern, innovative. AVs for Urban & trucking Suburban & Rural?
- 37. FAVES will be the fastest path to electrification of passenger miles
- 41. Current Sources: Gas Taxes Toll revenues Permits & Fees Tickets & Fines Parking Registrations Taxes for Motor vehicle manufacturing & use = $206 Billion/year* ($110b state & $96b in federal) & 2nd order effects Loss of taxes on associated labor & businesses now defunct With electric Avs None Fall by 60-90% (the higher end if we go to FAVES (reduced vehicles through tolls)) * http://www.autoalliance.org/files/dmfile/2015-Auto-Industry-Jobs-Report.pdf Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor MI
- 42. Taxing AVS Getting the incentives right Certificates of Entitlement Vehicles on purchase category • Fuel type • Weight • Square footage Road user fees (based on category) • Distance • Congestion • ZERO OCCUPANCY PREMIUM Retail • Pickup/Dropoff • VAT
- 43. Taxing AVS METAL BOXES ON DISCRETE STREETS Getting the USER FEES right
- 45. Shared, Electric LAND USE & URBAN PLANNING Planning & Criteria for New Space TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE REVS No gas tax, parking, tickets, 1/10th tolls New: fuel type, weight, distance, congestion, occupancy LABOR Rapid crash in sector jobs Enable diversification today; plan for future DATA Open APIs, Privacy, Security Transparency, Portability ENERGY New grid load must be renewables COMMUNITY Demand for FAVES vision TRANSPORT w/out ownership, integrated multimodal To accomplish this big vision 10% OF CURRENT VEHICLES We need to the involvement of many sectors VICTIMS Organize those who have suffered
- 46. Local city research ACCESS DIVIDEND How many jobs newly accessible? At higher wages? LAND VALUE DIVIDEND Inventory on-street & off-street parking. What new uses, criteria & priority? What new value? LABOR DIVIDEND How many jobs lost? How might they be redeployed for more community gain? TAX DIVIDEND How much transport & labor tax revenue lost? Get to redo with better incentives & amounts.
- 47. NEW MOBILITY PROTOCOL FOR LIVABLE CITIES PHASED 1) Standard and pooled data for competitive & quality shared transport services 2) Zero emission fleets 3) Congestion sticks (pricing) & carrots (land use) 4) AVs only in shared fleets see osmosys.org
- 48. A FUTURE PRIORITIZING PEOPLE NOT CARS
- 50. CLEAN CONNECTED EFFICIENT SHARED INFRASTRUCTURE IS DESTINY BUILDING THE WORLD WE WANT TO LIVE IN rchase@alum.mit.edu
- 51. CLEAN CONNECTED EFFICIENT SHARED INFRASTRUCTURE IS DESTINY BUILDING THE WORLD WE WANT TO LIVE IN CAN rchase@alum.mit.edu
Editor's Notes
- In densely populated areas, poor air quality has significant negative impacts on the health of residents. Intensively used vehicles have greater impact on air quality while also able to reap greater cost-benefits over combustion engines. Shared use vehicles include those used for hire to transport passengers or freight, including car rental and car-sharing. Cities should seek to maximize the likelihood of passengers sharing vehicle trips. This requires that companies share same ways to communicate data. Permits small local and startups to compete. Ensures evolution of services; future proofing technology. 1) maximize learning per vehicle in these first years and thus safety; 2) enusre maintenance and software upgrades done by professionals; 3) the benefits of autonomous travel are available to all and extend access; 4) makes early sales easier for manufacturers; 5) codifies OEM intent to sell first limited supply of AVs to shared fleets *at a minimum should be constrained to areas with population density greater than 10,000/m2 (6,250/km2), city limits or other geographically defined limitations. In densely populated areas, poor air quality has significant negative impacts on the health of residents. Intensively used vehicles have greater impact on air quality while also able to reap greater cost-benefits over combustion engines. Shared use vehicles include those used for hire to transport passengers or freight, including car rental and car-sharing. Cities should seek to maximize the likelihood of passengers sharing vehicle trips. This requires that companies share same ways to communicate data. Permits small local and startups to compete. Ensures evolution of services; future proofing technology. 1) maximize learning per vehicle in these first years and thus safety; 2) enusre maintenance and software upgrades done by professionals; 3) the benefits of autonomous travel are available to all and extend access; 4) makes early sales easier for manufacturers; 5) codifies OEM intent to sell first limited supply of AVs to shared fleets *at a minimum should be constrained to areas with population density greater than 10,000/m2 (6,250/km2), city limits or other geographically defined limitations.