Laurie Volk -- The Implications of Changing Demographics on Urbanism in New England
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Laurie Volk -- The Implications of Changing Demographics on Urbanism in New England
- 1. New New England The implications of changing demographics on urbanism in New England ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 2. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Two New Englands
- 3. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Lower New England More Ethnically Diverse Younger Higher Percentage of 1- and 2-Person Households Lower Percentage of Homeownership Connecticut Rhode Island Massachusetts
- 4. Less Ethnically Diverse Older Lower Percentage of 1- and 2-Person Households Higher Percentage of Homeownership Maine New Hampshire Vermont ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Upper New England
- 5. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Maine Lower Educational Attainment Lower Median Income Lower Median Housing Value
- 7. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. New Hampshire
- 10. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Rhode Island
- 12. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Connec&cut Rhode Island Massachuse2s New Hampshire Vermont Maine Younger Singles & Couples Tradi&onal & Non-‐Tradi&onal Families Empty-‐Nesters & Re&rees 65% 60% 40% 40% 46% 48% 35% 26% 36% 29% 23% 17% 25% 18%17% 23%24% 28%
- 13. A Decade After the Crash ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC
- 14. Credit Still Remains Tight (both builders and buyers) ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC
- 16. We continue to be a nation of just one- or two-person households. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 17. Married couples with children: 21.8% of US households ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 18. in a market dominated by singles and couples. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Nation’s housing stock is designed for families
- 19. Nationally, nearly two-thirds of all homebuyers are singles or couples. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 20. Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. 8 - 12 percent of home purchases made by single men. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 21. Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. 16 - 24 percent of home purchases made by single women. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 22. 30 - 32 percent of home purchases made by couples.
- 23. 35 - 37 percent of home purchases made by traditional and non-traditional families ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 24. The Great Convergence: 2004 to 2024 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Millions 20 to 29 50 to 59 Basic demographic support for walkable neighborhoods ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 27. The Millennials will dominate the nation for decades. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 29. Mostly single. Highly social. Ethnically and culturally diverse. Early/unsettled careers. More likely to be renters. Very mobile. Green. The Millennials
- 31. 17% of Millennials are foreign-born.
- 32. Over 44% of Millennials are minority race or ethnic group.
- 33. The majority “minority” ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 35. Women earn 57% of bachelor’s degrees. 63% of master’s degrees. 53% of doctorates. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 36. Age at First Marriage 1960 Men 22.8 Women 20.3 1980 24.7 22.0 2014 29.3 27.0
- 37. Impact on Age-Related Economic Activities Birth Years: 1977-1996 Ages Today: 20-39 Entered Kindergarten: 1982-2001 Elementary schools Enter High School: 1991-2010 High schools Enter College: 1995-2014 Dormitories Enter Job Market?: 1997-2021 Apartments/condos Married with Children??: 2003-2036 Detached Houses?? Empty nesting: 2024-2060 Apts./Condos/TH/Detached Retirement: 2047-2066 Apartments/Condos; CCRCs, etc. Death: 2057-2086 Mortuaries, crematoria, cemeteries ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 38. First-time buyers still below normal 40% share. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Only 32% in 2015
- 39. Millennial Home Ownership Share of 18- to 34-year-olds that own. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 40. Millennials loaded with student debt. $1,300,000,000,000 11.5% delinquent or in default. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 41. How Millennials get around. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 42. Licensed Drivers aged 20 to 24 1983 2014 91% 77% ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 47. Hard Lofts Millennials and Housing.
- 48. Soft Lofts
- 49. Mini Lofts
- 50. Micro Lofts
- 51. What about their stuff? ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
- 57. Long-term slow growth economy, due to lower spending on stuff? ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Boomers trying to get rid of stuff. Millennials don’t even want stuff. Millennials can’t afford stuff.
- 58. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Conneccut Rhode Island Massachuse2s New Hampshire Vermont Maine Younger Singles Couples Tradional Non-‐Tradional Families Empty-‐Nesters Rerees 65% 60% 40% 40% 46% 48% 35% 26% 36% 29% 23% 17% 25% 18%17% 23%24% 28%
- 59. New Haven Conneccut Providence Rhode Island Somerville Massachuse2s Younger Singles Couples Tradional Non-‐Tradional Families Empty-‐Nesters Rerees 86% 4% 40% 40% 46% 10% 35% 26% 36% 73% 7% 20% 25% 13%12% 75% 24% 28%