Fire Season 2013Official OutlookBryan HenryMeteorologistNRCCAsh Creek2012
2012 1,497,9722006 1,201,1172007 1,185,1992000 1,087,9202003 942,0222008 241,8542001 223,3101999 218,1062011 198,6242005 1...
Fall Moisture andPreexisting DroughtConditionsWinterSnowpackMeltSpringFactorJulyTemperatures andPrecipitationLive/Dead Fue...
 Image 2 A: Fire sizes in relation to snow melt off date(basically, the earlier the melt off date, the larger the fireste...
Effects of Climate Change on Numbersof Large FiresFigure 4a scatter plot ofannual number oflarge (> 200 ha) forestwildfire...
Number of ThunderstormDays/Year (NOAA)
Observed Precipitation (Last 7 days)
Percent of Normal Precipitation (Last 7 days)
This area is a former area ofmajor concern. However,significant precipitationreceived during May hasreduced concerns. With...
Model Precipitation Estimates Today through Friday
Map shows some recent improvement across SC and SEMT. SW MT still has some areas that are quite dry.
30 Day Temps Reflect Pattern Change to Spring
Snowpackcomingoff fasterthannormal inSW/SCMT
CPC Outlooks 8-14 Day
CPC Outlooks(June 2013)
Outlooks for Fire Season(July-September)
Thoughts on Fire Season2013 The Pburg fire at Discovery Ski Area was a falsestart. Normal start expected all locations....
NormalNormalSee TextNormalAugust-SeptemberABOVE NORMALAUGUST THROUGHMID-SEPTEMBERText Some recent drought relief has occur...
Montana Fire Season Official Outlook 2013
Montana Fire Season Official Outlook 2013
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Montana Fire Season Official Outlook 2013

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Bryan Henry Meteorologist for NRCC presents "Montana's Fire Season Official Outlook 2013" at the 2013 Clark Fork River Basin Task Force Meeting.

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Montana Fire Season Official Outlook 2013

  1. 1. Fire Season 2013Official OutlookBryan HenryMeteorologistNRCCAsh Creek2012
  2. 2. 2012 1,497,9722006 1,201,1172007 1,185,1992000 1,087,9202003 942,0222008 241,8542001 223,3101999 218,1062011 198,6242005 185,4572002 172,1972010 70,4742009 69,0162004 40,840Median 220,708Average 523,865Recent History Shows…Data• Fire seasons across theNorthern Rockies Regionfall entirely into threecategories: Much AboveNormal, Normal, andBelow Normal• There is no “AboveNormal” category. Either~220,000 acres burn or amillion acres (+/-) burn.• Note the dramaticincrease in the number ofMuch Above Normal Yearssince 2000!!!!!!!!!!• It’s a new era.2013?Acres Burned
  3. 3. Fall Moisture andPreexisting DroughtConditionsWinterSnowpackMeltSpringFactorJulyTemperatures andPrecipitationLive/Dead FuelMoistureSummerConvectionOcean/AtmosphericCirculations(ENSO/PDO/etc.)Factors that Influence Fire Season SeveritySpring wasa “mixedbag” with awet finish.Fall was “near average”across the NR regionSnowpackis meltingat a fasterthan normalrate
  4. 4.  Image 2 A: Fire sizes in relation to snow melt off date(basically, the earlier the melt off date, the larger the firestend to be). Image 2B: Number of large fires at mid elevations inrelation to snow melt off dates. (Basically, the earlier themelt off date, the more large fires that develop).*Note that the data only goes through 2002!
  5. 5. Effects of Climate Change on Numbersof Large FiresFigure 4a scatter plot ofannual number oflarge (> 200 ha) forestwildfires versus avgspring and summertemperature for theWestern USA USFS,Park Service, and BIAmanagement unitsreporting 1972 - 2004.Fires reported as ignitingin forested areasonly.Big Jump in #of large firesin years thatare .3 degreeswarmer thannormal.
  6. 6. Number of ThunderstormDays/Year (NOAA)
  7. 7. Observed Precipitation (Last 7 days)
  8. 8. Percent of Normal Precipitation (Last 7 days)
  9. 9. This area is a former area ofmajor concern. However,significant precipitationreceived during May hasreduced concerns. With thatsaid, severe droughtconditions linger.Percent of Normal Precipitation (Last 30 days)Area ofMostConcernSome “ABOVENORMAL”potentialexists.
  10. 10. Model Precipitation Estimates Today through Friday
  11. 11. Map shows some recent improvement across SC and SEMT. SW MT still has some areas that are quite dry.
  12. 12. 30 Day Temps Reflect Pattern Change to Spring
  13. 13. Snowpackcomingoff fasterthannormal inSW/SCMT
  14. 14. CPC Outlooks 8-14 Day
  15. 15. CPC Outlooks(June 2013)
  16. 16. Outlooks for Fire Season(July-September)
  17. 17. Thoughts on Fire Season2013 The Pburg fire at Discovery Ski Area was a falsestart. Normal start expected all locations. Drought across SW MT will persist and expand inareal coverage by early summer. Anticipate abnormally dry conditions across CentralID to develop into Moderate Drought by start of fireseason. Tropical forecasts and anticipated ridge positioningsuggest at least “normal” lightning activity again thisyear.
  18. 18. NormalNormalSee TextNormalAugust-SeptemberABOVE NORMALAUGUST THROUGHMID-SEPTEMBERText Some recent drought relief has occurred. However, alarge portion of SC MT remains under moderate tosevere drought. Area may become susceptible toABOVE NORMAL fire activity in August shouldabnormally warm and dry conditions develop.

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