UMSC "Hot Potato Luncheon" presentation

1. Demography, Trends and Texas Implications of the Changing Character of the United States and Texas Christy Woodward Kaupert, Assoc. Prof., Political ScienceUMSC Hot Potato October 6, 2009

2. What is demography? Demography is the study of the determinants and consequences of the demographic processes (fertility, mortality and migration)and of the size, distribution, and composition of the population.

3. Population Change then reflects: Pt2 =Pt1 + Bt1- Bt2- Dt1- Dt2 + Mt1- Mt2

4. The US Population

5. What our population looks like?

6. How did it turn into a dome?

7. What we know---- The white population is aging and fertility rates are lower. The minority population is growing, both by virtue of increased migration and higher fertility rates Lower mortality rates among the white population, increases in the youthful population among minorities present competing challenges

8. What are the implications? Dr. Steve Murdock, Texas’ former state demographer says: “As Texas goes, so goes the rest of the nation”

9. The reality is, the numbers drive the reality. Hispanics are the fastest growing minority in America.

10. Concentration of White Population Concentration of African American Population Concentration of Hispanic Population How diverse is your state?

11. What are the implications for our new reality? There are abundant policy implications in several areas: Financial Educational Attainment Labor Force Housing Health

12. Change in Texas Household Income 2000 to 2040

13. Projected Enrollment in “Welfare” programs

14. Enrollment in “Welfare” Programs by Ethnicity

15. Education K-12 By Ethnicity

16. Ethnicity by Enrollment in Higher Educational Institutions

17. Labor Force by Educational Attainment

18. Housing Percent of All Households by Tenure

19. Percent change in selected health care issues 2000 to 2040

20. Questions? As Dr. Murdock implored us to do over a decade ago, we must be mindful of our changing population and the implication those changes will present.