I. Population Definition
II. Determinants of Demographic Trends
III. Population Growth
i. The world picture
ii. Asia situation
iii. The Philippine situation
iv. Bohol situation
IV. Components of Population Change
V. Population Structure: Age and Sex Composition
VI. Population Distribution of the Philippines
VII. Implications of Rapid Population Growth: The Philippine Situation
i. Malthus Thesis
ii. The Marxist Perspective
iii. The Theory of Demographic Transition
iv. The Neo- Malthusian Perspective
What is population?
• comes from the Greek word populous, which means people.
• Population-the total number of people inhabiting a particular geographic area at a specified time
• Demography- the study of the size, distribution, composition and changes in population.
Determinants of Demographic Trends
There are no stable population. Some population increase and other decrease. The size of given
population may change rapidly while others may change much more slowly.in some
populations, there is a high proportion of people under fifteen. most populations have more
females than males in the older generation. These and other population characteristics are
result of many factors which may be biological, demographic, social, economic, political or
ü Population growth means increase in the size of population.
THE WORLD PICTURE
ü The current world population in 2013 is 7,118,279,573.
ü This population account is based off of calculations made using historical
population data, birth rates, and mortality rates.
ü Asia is the world’s largest and most populous continent with a population of 4.3 billion people.
THE PHILIPPINE SITUATION
• According to the Commission on Population (POPCOM) of the Philippines, the estimated total population of the Philippines this year
2014 (January 2) is 98,909,981.
• Likewise, the total estimated population of the Philippines in year 2013 according to the CIA is about 105,720,644 (July 2013 estimate).
According to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the estimated total population of the Philippines in 2012 is about 103,775,002.
The population of Bohol Province has reached the million marks in the year 2000. As per Census 2010,
Bohol has a population of 1,255,128.
Components of population
• is a demographic phenomenon greatly responsible for setting population
• means a woman has actually given birth to a live child
• actual reproduction
Fecundity - biological capacity of a woman to have a children at a future
- begins at menarche
Methods to measure Fertility
1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
• which is computed by dividing the number of live births during a
calendar year to the mid year population of the same period,
expressed per 1,000 population.
crude birth rate= number of births 1,000
2. General Fertility Rate
• is the number of births occurring in a calendar year 1,000 woman of
childbearing ages 15-49.
• indicates the various observed in fertility within or among the population.
FACTORS INFLUENCING FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS
• Occupation of the Father
• Rural-Urban Differential
• Age at Marriage
ü The most important factor influencing fertility in the Philippines.
ü The higher the educational attainment, especially that of a woman, the lower is the number
ü This is because educated women are more aware of birth spacing and birth limitations
methods, or “responsible parenthood.”
ü As expected, fertility is higher in rural areas.
ü The difference is probably due to the fact that the rural couples cannot readily get
information and facilities for family planning.
Age at Marriage
ü Delayed marriage means lesser exposure to fertility and therefore reduces the number of children born
to a woman.
ü Is desire to maintain or to secure a good social status.
ü Is one of the most important factors leading to the control of fertility.
ü For many couples with a good social status, it is easier to maintain that status and ensure the
same status to their children if families are relatively small.
• Refers to death
• It is negative component of population change.
Methods to measure Mortality
1. Crude Death Rate (CDR)
- is the number of deaths per 1,000 population
crude death rate = number of death X 1,000
2. Age- Specific Death Rate
- is the number of deaths of persons in a given age-group per 1,000 population of
Age specific death rate=
number of live births to females in a specific age
female population in that age group
3. Infant Mortality Rate
- is the measure to indicate the death rate of children in their first year of life.
infant mortality rate = Deaths among infants
Total live births
4. Death Rate by Cause of Death
- is commonly expressed in terms of deaths from a given country expressed in
terms of deaths from a given disease (cause of death) per 100,000 population.
death rate =
number of deaths for a specific cause
5. Maternal Mortality Rate
- the number of mothers dying per 100,000 live births.
Maternal mortality = Number of Resident Maternal Deaths
Number of Resident Live Births
• The movement of people from one area to another to settle permanently.
KINDS OF MIGRATION
ü International migration- is the movement of people from one country to
another to settle permanently
• Immigration- the coming into the country of which the person is
not a citizen for permanent residence
• Emigration- the going from one’s country for permanent residence
in another country.
ü Internal migration- is the movement of people from one part of the country
to another permanent residence. Maybe out- migration or in-migration.
Population structure: age and sex
• Age composition- One of the most important characteristics of a population. Refers to the relative proportions of people at various age levels.
• Sex Composition- Directly affects the incidence of births, deaths, marriage and migration. It refers to
the differences in sex-make up which is determined by sex ratio, that is, the proportion of males
Of the 92.1 million household population in the Philippines, 50.4 percent were males and 49.6
percent were female. This resulted in a sex ratio of 102 males per 100 females. The sex ratio in
2000 was 101 males per 100 females.
In 2010, children under 15 years old had a sex ratio of 107 males for
every 100 females, while for those aged 15 to 64 years, the ratio was
102 males per 100 females. The sex ratio for the age group 65 years
old and over was 73 males per 100 females, depicting the higher
mortality of males than females in this age group.
Across the country, Region VIII and Caraga both posted the highest
sex ratio of 106 males per 100 females. On the other hand, NCR (96
males per 100 females) and ARMM (99 males per 100 females) were
the only regions that reported a larger number of females than
males, or a sex ratio below 100.
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION OF THE
PHILIPPINES the number of people per square kilometre/ mile.
• Population density- which means
- it can be computed by dividing total population of a given calendar year by the area.
Population density increases by 20.7 percent
The Philippine population density or the average number of persons per square kilometer in 2010 was 308.
This figure represented an increase of 53 persons (20.7 percent) from 255 persons per square kilometer in
2000. In 1990, there were 202 persons residing in every square kilometer of land.
NCR remains the most densely populated region
ü The most densely populated region was the National Capital Region (NCR), with a population density of
19,137 persons per square kilometer in 2010. This figure is about 62 times higher than the
population density at the national level. The 2010 figure translated to an increase of 3,105 persons
per square kilometer (19.4 percent) from 16,032 persons per square kilometer in 2000. The
population density of NCR in 1990 was 12,830 persons per square kilometer.
Aside from NCR, five other regions surpassed
the national population density of 308 persons
per square kilometer. These were Region IV-A
(758 persons per square kilometer), Region III
(460 persons per square kilometer), Region VII
(428 persons per square kilometer), Region I
(366 persons per square kilometer), and Region
VI (342 persons per square kilometer). In
contrast, three regions had a population density
of less than 100 persons per square kilometer.
These were CAR (82 persons per square
kilometer), Region IV-B (93 persons per square
kilometer), and ARMM (97 persons per square
In terms of increase in household
population size from 2000 to 2010,
Region IVA recorded the highest increase
of 35.3 percent over the household
population in 2000 (9.3 million persons).
This was followed by Region XII
(SOCCSKSARGEN) with an increase of 27.6
percent, then by Region III (Central Luzon)
with 23.5 percent increase. The lowest
increase in household population size was
observed in Region I, which recorded an
increase of 13.0 percent.
Implications of rapid population growth: the
Rapid populations intervenes with specific development concerns as the utilizations as the natural resources, education,
employment, health and nutrition, house and income equity.
1. Population and Natural Resources
Ø Before WW II, the forest cover of the Philippines was about 75% of the total area of the country.
Ø The forest is not only a source of timber, but it also performs ecological functions in terms of catchment
protection, soil erosion control and as a storage of genetic information.
Ø Our forests are being denuded by the growing population engaged in subsistence cultivation (kaingin),
excessive fuel harvesting and excessive and ruthless commercial logging.
Ø The most important feature of the forest is the ecological service function.
Ø The growing population is also depleting the country’s marine resources. According to estimates, the actual
marine catch of 1.3 million tons a year in nearly reaching the potential limit of 1.85 million tons.
2. Population and EducationØ There are several deficiencies in the present educational institutions in the Philippines such as shortage
of classrooms, textbooks and teachers, aside from the problem of quality.
Ø The breakdowns of students are: 1,784,992 kindergarten pupils, 13,306,661 elementary students and
5,719, 128 high school students in all public schools nationwide; 428, 981 kindergarten pupils,
1,216,692 elementary students, and 1,408,347 high schools students in all private schools
nationwide. This school year’s enrolment for both private and public elementary and secondary
schools are about 23.8 million.
§ Based on data released by ACT (Alliance of Concerned Teachers) stated that
shortages for school year 2013 include 250,000 for chairs; 32, 644 for classrooms;
46,576 for teachers; 60,000,000 for textbooks and 80,937 for water and sanitation
Ø On the positive side, the cognitive skills of Filipinos experienced an improvement. Basic Literacy, which
is the ability to write a simple language or dialect showed up to 95.6% as of 2008 statistics .
Functional Literacy, which includes numeracy and mathematical skills, is around 86 % as of 2008
3. Population, Health and Nutrition
Ø Improved health increases the productive capacity of a population.
Ø Many Filipinos suffer from malnutrition. Malnutrition can seriously affect the productivity of an
Morbidity- indicator of health, prevalence of a disease or illness. Among leading causes
of morbidity in the Philippines are: bronchitis, diarrhea, influenza, pneumonia,
tuberculosis, malaria, diseases of the heart, measles and malignant neoplasm
(Health Intelligence Service, Department of Health).
Ø The supply health services of a given quality is determined by economic factors which are
related to the capacity of the economy to save and invest in health care as well as policies
and programs which increase access to health services.
5. Population and Housing
To attain quality of life, the population should be provided with adequate and comfortable housing
facilities. The Philippines must meet three needs to provide solutions to the acute housing
problems of the country. They are as follows:
The need for additional housing units to accommodate new households;
The need to upgrade components of houses, particularly those in the slums and blighted areas;
The need to site and services projects to accommodate marginal income families migrating to the
urban areas and those displaced from danger areas and land reserved for the infrastructure
programs of the government.
MALTHUS THESIS. (The Principle of Population)
ü Malthus held that the worlds population was growing rapidly than the available food supply. He argued that food supply
increases in an arithmetical progression (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and so on), whereas population expands by a geometric progression
(1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and so on).
ü According to his analysis, the gap between food supply and population will continue to grow through time. even though the
food supply increase enough to meet the needs of an expanding world population (Schaefer, 2005).
ü Malthus predicted some checks on population. He referred to these checks as positive and negative checks.
• Positive Checks- are mortality risk (Kendall, 2001). They are those that limit population growth such as hunger,
disease, and war.
• In 1877-1878, one of the worst famines of modern times struck northern China. Cannibalism became common, and
parents sold their children in order to buy a few days worth of food. Before the famine was over, between 9 and 13
million Chinese had died (Peterson, 1975 in McNall and Mc^Nall, 1992).
• The Irish famine of the 1840s s another instance of widespread hunger. It killed one out of eight persons in the country
(Dorn, 1965 in McNall and Mc Nall, 1992).
• Negative Checks- are limits to fertility (Kendall, 2001). They include differed marriage,
moral restraint, and birth control.
§ Malthus believed that negative checks would work efficiently with the upper classes of society.
He, however, rejected birth control as a means to control population given his religious
§ And because he did not believe that people would restrain themselves nor would they
postpone marriage, he reached a gloomy conclusion about the future of humanity (McNall
and McNall, 1992).
THE MARXIST PERSPECTIVE
ü Karl Marx strongly criticized Malthus’ views on population. According to him and
Friedrich Engels, food supply is not threatened by overpopulation;
technologically, it is possible to produce the food and other goods needed to
meet the demands of growing population (Kendal, 2001).
ü For Marx, overpopulation is not a problem of too many people. Instead, it is ta
problem of too much poverty. People are poor because they are exploited by
their employers. If society is rich enough to eliminate poverty, then by definition
its population is not too large (Bryan and Lie, 2005).
THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Demographic transition is the process by which some societies have moved from high birth and death rates to relatively low birth and death rates
as a result of technological development (Kendall, 2001).
The Demographic transition is divided into four stages: Preindustrial Stage, Early Industrial Stage, Advanced Industrialization and urbanization
stage, Postindustrialization stage.
Preindustrial Stage- Is characterized by continuing high birth rates and high death rates, resulting in a population that grows very slowly (Sullivan, 1995).
Food shortages, poor sanitation, and lack of adequate medical care contribute to high rates of infant and child mortality.
Early Industrial Stage- is characterized by continuing high birth rates but declining death rates (Sullivan, 1995). Improvements in health, sanitation, and
nutrition produce a substantial decline in infant mortality rates.
Advanced Industrialization and urbanization stage- the crude death rate continues to fall. The crude birth rate fell even more dramatically (Brym and Lie,
2005). The birth rate declines as a couple control their fertility through contraceptives and become less likely to adhere to religious directives
against their use.
Postindustrialization stage- birth rates continue to decline as more and more women gain full- time employment and the cost of raising children
continues to increase. The population grows very slowly, if at all, because the decrease in birth rates is coupled with a stable death rate.
THE NEO-MALTHUSIAN PERSPECTIVE
ü Has reemphasized the dangers of population.
ü To them, the earth is a “dying planet” with too many people and too little food,
compounded by environmental degradation.
ü Neo-Malthusians encouraged people to be part of the solution to the problem of
overpopulation by having only one or two children in order to bring about zero
The consequences of overpopulation
1. Crowding. Freedman (1975 in Sullivan, 1995) has argued that the crowding itself does not have
negative consequnces. Instead, crowding is oftentimes associated with other social conditions such
as poverty that produce increases in crimes or aggression (Liddell and Kruger, 1987; Ehrlich and
Ehrlich, 1990 in Sullivan, 1995).
2. Food shortages. It is difficult to increase agricultural production enough to keep with population
growth (Kendall, 2003).
3. Depletion of the world’s natural resources(Kendall, 2003). Many developing nations, for instance,
have allowed foreign companies to exploit the timber resources of ancient rain forests. The loss of
biological variability, or biodiversity, could have a negative impact on the adaptability of thae entire
ecosystem or world environment (Hess et. al., 1993).
4. Declining supplies of clean water. The diversion of streams for irrigation; the drying up of
groundwater; and the pollution of other sources has created a scarcity of drinkable water.