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Human Population Dynamics


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Human Population Dynamics

  1. 1. Human Population Dynamics• Current global population approximately 6.6 billion• Should grow to 9.2 billion by 2050• Much of this growth in India and China Muslim District in Mumbai, India
  2. 2. Position #1... • There are too many people in the less developed countries of the world • They are degrading soil, air, water quality • They are depleting Near Lagos, Nigeria aspects of Earth’s natural capital
  3. 3. Position #2 • Resource consumption per person in the developed countries is the most serious problem • Examples: energy, food
  4. 4. Position #3 • There is no problem • Life expectancy on Earth is greater than ever • Human ingenuity will overcome... • Food, energy, resource problems
  5. 5. Position #4 “The family is the natural and fundamental unit of society. It follows that any• Is population regulation a form choice and decision with of genocide? regard to the size of the family• Does population regulation... must irrevocably rest with the • intrude on privacy family and cannot be made • intrude on personal by anyone else.” --The UN freedom Universal Declaration of Human Rights
  6. 6. Who leaves the greatest footprint? MDC Category LDC Per Capita $10K GNP $1K % Global 20% 80%• A closer look 85% Population % Global Wealth 15% % Resource 88% Use 12% % Global 75% Pollution 25%
  7. 7. Some population background...• for much of human history population grew slowly• during the past 200 years, however, • exponential growth characterized by a J- shaped curve
  8. 8. Three reasons...• Humans live in diverse habitats• Emergence of Vaccinations agriculture• Medicine, sanitation, and energy resource • allow birthrate to surpass death rate Rice terraces in China
  9. 9. Present population growth rate• In 2006 overall growth rate 1.23% • 81 million new people• Developed countries 0.1% (1.2 million)• Less developed 1.5% (79.5 million)
  10. 10. Will the human population reach a ‘cultural carrying capacity?’• In other words... • Will human population move from the current J- shaped curve to an S-shaped curve?
  11. 11. Replacement Fertility Rate vs. Total Fertility Rate...• Replacement fertility rate • # of children a couple needs to replace themselves• Total fertility rate • # of children a woman has in her lifetime
  12. 12. Total Fertility Rate in 2006...• 2.7 children per woman globally • developed countries: 1.6 children per woman • less developed: 2.9 per woman (6.5 in 1950)
  13. 13. What about the US and Baby Boomers?• Right now 300 million-plus • By 2050: 420 million • Total fertility rate in US: less than 2.1• Baby Boomers 1946-64 • Total fertility rate: 3.7!
  14. 14. Why is the US population continuing to grow?• Huge population base• We’ll look at age structure diagrams later• Large immigrant population • Both legal and illegal segments
  15. 15. Factors affecting birthrate...• Children in the workforce• Cost of raising and educating children• Private/public pension plans• Urbanization Shanghai, China
  16. 16. Additional factors...• Education/employment opportunities for women• Infant mortality rate Students at Beijing University• Age at marriage
  17. 17. Final considerations... The Blue Mosque • Religious beliefs • Availability of birth control • Availability of legal abortions
  18. 18. What role does immigration play...• Counties that encourage immigration • US, Canada, Australia, Israel, and New Zealand • The US grants citizenship to 700,000 annually • In the US, immigrants tend to have larger families
  19. 19. Types of Immigration...• Legal and Illegal• Environmental and Political Refugees Somali family shops at the Mogadishu Store in Lewiston, ME • What will be the impact of Climate Change? Seychelles Islands • i.e Sea level rise
  20. 20. Benefits and Costs of Immigrants...• Tradition in US • Displace US workers• Labor • Illegal aliens• Military • Strain on healthcare• Social Security • Strain on education• New ideas • Security issues• Other benefits? • Others?
  21. 21. What do Age Structure Diagrams tell us?• Pre-reproductive, Reproductive, Post-reproductive• Challenges for each model
  22. 22. Aging and DecliningPopulations• Global aging The population of the world will be older. • labor shortages According to the 2006 Revision of World Population Prospects, by 2045 • social security the number of older persons in the world (those aged 60 years or over) • healthcare will likely surpass, for the first time in history, the number of children (i.e., persons under age 15). This • military power vs. crossover is the consequence of the diplomacy long term reductions in fertility and mortality that are leading to the steady aging of the world population. UN Population Division
  23. 23. A look at India...• World’s largest democracy: 1.1 billion• India should surpass China by 2035• Self sufficient in grain; yet 40% undernourished
  24. 24. More on India...• Rapid economic growth New Delhi marketplace• Critical resource and environmental problems• By 2050 could become the world’s economic leader Desertification in southern India
  25. 25. Challenges to India’s population planning...• At the the federal level • Poor planning/ disagreement over best policy• Best success at the local level • Kerala
  26. 26. Other challenges for India... • Low status of women • Extreme poverty • Democracy: minimal coercion • Cultural preference for males • 90% of population aware of birth control; 40% use it Child from Calcutta
  27. 27. The State of Kerala-A promising model for India• Positive political leadership• High poverty, but life expectancy 70 yrs.• Social justice and economic redistribution• Literacy 100% (nationally Trichur Pooram, an annual festival in 47%) Kerala
  28. 28. What about China...• Largest population: 1.3 billion• State controlled family policy since 1970• Coercive policy: draconian penalties • one child or else• Modified in 2002; 2 children Promoting the one-child policy
  29. 29. The results have been compelling...• Plan has reduced population by 250 million• 86% birth control compliance Beijing, China• literacy 91%; life expectancy 72• Cut total fertility rate from 5.7 to 1.6
  30. 30. Opportunities and challenges...• By 2020 could be the global economic leader• 600 million middle class; high consumption Prosperous Middle Class• By 2050, 60 & over population will be larger than the US population Elderly practicing tai chi
  31. 31. Final words on China... • Cultural preference for males has led to a 118 Ad from Mail-order bride agency male to 100 female ratio • Formidable resource depletion and environmental degradation problems Air pollution at the Olympic Stadium