Employment continues to grow despite GDP slowdown THE LABOUR MARKET HAS RECOVERED TO PRE-COVID-19 PANDEMIC LEVELS, BUT PROSPECTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AMID WAR CLOUDS IN UKRAINE Uneven GDP recovery among OECD countries OECD employment returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021, and continued to grow in the first half of 2022 Low-pay industries are lagging behindin the recovery Gradual correction of unemployment rate Loss of household purchasing power DESPITE SUSTAINED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND WIDESPREAD LABOUR SHORTAGES, REAL HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME HAS BEEN DECLINING SINCE Q421. NOMINAL WAGE GROWTH IS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH INFLATION Real wages will fall by 0.6% y-o-y in the US in 2022, 3.9 pp less than in Spain High inflation is eroding the real value of the legal minimum wage

1. -10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
US
Latvia
Belgium
Slovakia
Greece
Netherlands
Czech
Rep.
Israel
Australia
Ireland
Poland
Canada
Germany
Costa
Rica
Luxembourg
New
Zealand
Spain
Slovenia
OECD
France
Estonia
Lithuania
Korea
Chile
UK
Japan
Portugal
Colombia
Real minimum wage rates
Nominal minimum wage rates
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Eurozone Japan
OECD US
OECD Employment Outlook 2022
ECONOMY
In data
Employment continues to grow despite GDP slowdown
THE LABOUR MARKET HAS RECOVERED TO PRE-COVID-19 PANDEMIC LEVELS, BUT PROSPECTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AMID WAR CLOUDS
IN UKRAINE
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD, 2022.
OECD GDP
Q2 2022
+3.4pp
compared to Q4 2019 level (prepandemic)
Eurozone: +1.4 pp
-2.3%
OECD REAL WAGE
2022*
y-o-y
Spain: -4.5%
OECD UNEMPLOYMENT
JUL. 2022
4.9%
4 tenths less than in
Dec. 2019
* Forecasts
Loss of household purchasing power
OECD employment returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of
2021, and continued to grow in the first half of 2022
Seasonally adjusted monthly employment. Index Dec. 2019 = 100
DESPITE SUSTAINED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND WIDESPREAD LABOUR SHORTAGES, REAL HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME HAS BEEN
DECLINING SINCE Q421. NOMINAL WAGE GROWTH IS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH INFLATION
Real wages will fall by 0.6% y-o-y in the US in 2022,
3.9 pp less than in Spain
Projected % y-o-y change in real wages, 2022
OECD EMPLOYMENT
JUL. 2022
+1.3pp
compared to Dec. 2019
Eurozone: +2.4 pp
Uneven GDP recovery among OECD countries
Seasonally adjusted real GDP selected countries
Index Q419 = 100
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q121
Q221
Q321
Q421
Q122
Q222
Eurozone Japan
OECD US
In Q122, GDP was lower than pre-
pandemic (4Q19) in 8 countries,
with Iceland, Spain and Mexico
more than 1 pp lower
Gradual correction of unemployment rate
% labour force. Seasonally adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Spain
Italy
Chile
France
Finland
Sweden
Portugal
Canada
OECD
UK
US
Netherlands
Israel
Australia
Mexico
Germany
Japan
Czech
Rep.
Most recent (Jul. 22) Pre-crisis (Dec. 19) Max.
Spain (12.6%), country with
the highest unemployment
rate in OECD in Jul.22, 7.7 pp
above the average (4.9%)
7.1
5.5
4.2
7.4
5.3
4.0
Eurozone OECD US
Stabilization expected in 2023
% labour force
Q421 Q422* Q423*
* Forecasts
Low-pay industries are lagging behind in the recovery
Average % change in employment Q1 19 – Q1T 22
-3.2%
7.2%
-8.3%
-0.6%
-3.4%
-1.2%
12.5%
-2.0%
-2.4%
11.5%
4.4%
11.5%
-0.2%
3.2%
2.9%
8.1%
10.2%
17.5%
5.9%
-10% 0% 10% 20%
Agric., forestry & fishing
Mining & quarrying
Accommodation & food
Adm. & support serv.
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Wholesale & retail trade;
repair motor vehicles
Water supply; sewerage,
waste management
Transportation & storage
Manufacturing
Act. of households as employers
Other services
Real estate
Construction
Human health & soc. work
Education
Profes., scientific & tech. act.
Elect., gas, steam & air cond.
Info. & communication
Financial & insurance
Low-pay
High-pay
-4.5
-3.1
-2.9
-2.6
-2.3
-2.1 -2.0
-1.8
-0.6
-0.3
Spain
Italy
UK
Germany
OECD
Canada
Australia
Korea
US
Japan
High inflation is eroding the real value of the legal minimum
wage
% change in nominal and real minimum wage rates Jan.21 – Jan.22
* Forecasts
Employment growth to be sustained in 2023 (Q419 = 100)