Quarterly Report of the Circle of Entrepreneurs showing the evolution of the Spanish and international economy.

1. Global and Spanish economy
4Q-17 and outlook for 2018
February 2018
QUARTERLY REPORT

2. GLOBAL

3. 2017 GDP growth and forecasts for 2018
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, January 2018
3
1,8
2.3 2.7
2 2.3
1.3 1.9
2.4 2.2
6.8 6.6
CHINA
EUROZONE
LATIN AMERICA
MEXICO
USA
BRAZIL
1.1 1.9
RUSSIA
1.8 1,7
Growth extended across all geographic areas and exceeded expectations
GLOBAL
3.7 3.9
AFRICA
2.7 3.3
Real GDP growth(%)
2018
2017

4. 2017 Key facts
Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2018 4
US exit from TPP
agreement
Art. 50 is activated
China’s rating
downgrade
UK Elections
NAFTA
renegotiations
Fed announced
balance sheet
reduction
ECB announced QE
reduction
January-February March April-May June
Macron: new
president of
France
AugustSeptemberOctober-November
Fed interest rate
hike
Trump’s Tax
reform
Fed interest rate
hike
December
Once again, a year marked by political uncertainty
Fed interest rate
hike
illegal referendum
in Catalonia

5. Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2018 5
Forecasts for 2018
1 2 3
Robust and
synchronized growth
Gradual withdrawal of
monetary stimulus in
advanced economies
Political uncertainty
remains
4
High valuations in
Financial markets
Strengths and risks

6. 58%
42%
88%
12%
97%
3%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on FMI, JP Morgan, Markit, 2018
6
Positive behavior of global growth
For the first time since 2010, the global economy exceeds the forecast of
economic expansion
54
% Countries with positive growth
2009 2012 2018
GLOBAL
PMI
54.5
50 level
Expansion
Contraction
December 2017
Countries with positive growth Countries with negative growth

7. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, JP Morgan, 2018
7
Growth in advanced and emerging countries
The acceleration of emerging countries growth reflects the recovery in commodity
exporters
56.3
52.2
Emerging
Advanced
Manufacturing PMI new maximum
(December 2017)
Note: values above 50 indicates expansion
In parenthesis data of December 2016
(53.8)
(51)
Forescast
2.1 2.2
1.7
2.2 2.0
4.7
4.3 4.3
4.6
4.9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real GDP growth
%
Advanced Emerging

8. Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2018 8
Geopolitical uncertainty
The process of globalization continues although there are pockets of trade protectionism
JAPAN
CANADA
MEXICO
TPP 12 (with USA)
38.3% global GDP
TPP 11(without USA)
13.5% global GDP
US leaves
TPP
The exit of US has not
stopped trade
negotiations
* Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Peru, New Zealand, Singapour, Vietnam
The potential incorporation of South Korea, Taiwan,
Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines would generate
earnings of 500 billion $
(higher than initial agreement with USA)
Possible TPP 16
1
2 NAFTA renegotiations worries
Brexit trade consequences3
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
(January 2017)

9. Inflation remained low, however...
The 80% of OECD countries (+ China) are in full employment, which could lead to greater
inflationary pressures for the next two years…
Global inflation
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on JP Morgan, 2018
Unemployment and inflation rate OECD
Unemployment reduction
Wage growth
Inflation
potential
growth
GDP dynamism
…Nevertheless, there are still deflationary forces
such as aging population or low productivity which
keeps wage growth in low levels
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Unemployment (% active population)
Inflation (%)

10. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and Vanguard, 2018 10
China confirms a moderate slowdown
The risks of a hard landing is reduced in 2018, but its level of total debt worries*
Low intensity of industrial and
real estate overcapacity
2017: 6.8%
2018: 6.6%
Real GDP growth
Supply side reforms and symptoms
of openness
Positive advance in services
sector activity
1
2
3
*IMF estimate that total debt will reach 300% of GDP in 2022 (actual: 230% PIB)

11. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on World Bank, 2018 11
Economic recovery in Latin America and Russia
Argentina, Brazil and Russia exit recession
Text goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here.
Step 2
Text goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here.
Step 3
Text goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here.
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
Text goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here goes here
goes here goes
here.
Step 1 Step 2
Higher growth prospects for Mexico (due to US
demand dynamism), Brazil’s economic recovery
and the upward cycle of commodities stimulate
emerging countries growth
Growth better than expected in Russia due to
higher oil prices, greater flexibility in exchange
rate and fiscal stimulus
Latin America
Russia

12. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, January 2018 12
US: upward economic forecast (I)
The Tax Reform raises growth forecasts for 2018
2.72.31.5
2016 2017 2018
(PMI: 54.3) (PMI: 55.1)
Real GDP growth (%)
Note: PMI data correspond to end of the year

13. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Joint Committee on Taxation, 2018 13
US: Tax Reform impact (II)
The US Senate approved Trump’s Tax Reform
Simplification of tax brackets from 7 to 4
Corporate Tax reduction from 35% to 20%
Elimination of deductions
Impact Reform
GDP impact estimation between 0.06 and
0.36 points in the US economy in 2018
(Tax Foundation, Goldman Sachs, Joint Committee on
Taxation, Wharton)
Savings average for US citizens 
1,610$ in 2018 (Tax Policy Center)
The reform will add approximately 1 billion
to debt in 10 years (Joint Committee on Taxation)

14. US: prices stability (III)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BLS y PIMCO, 2018
14
2-2.5
1.9
2017
2018
PIMCO
estimates
The economy and employment improvement (+171,000 average jobs created in 2017)
reinforce the bullish expectations of inflation
Inflation forecast
% annual change
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
US inflation
% annual change
General Core
Average inflation 50 years: 4.1%

15. 0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
September 2017 December 2017
Fed: new interest rate rise
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Fed, 2018
15
The Fed raised interest rates in December to a range of 1.25-1.5%
Fed dot plot, 2018
(%)
Greenspan Bernanke Yellen
Powell
(Effective in February 2018)
3 expected hikes in 2018
Federal funds rate
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jul-00
Jun-01
May-02
Apr-03
Mar-04
Feb-05
Jan-06
Dec-06
Nov-07
Oct-08
Sep-09
Aug-10
Jul-11
Jun-12
May-13
Apr-14
Mar-15
Feb-16
Jan-17
Dec-17
Note: Each dot represents a governor’s vote

16. 5
4
-4
1.5
2.4
0
1.6
3.3
4.1
3
4
3.4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Hungary Poland Romania Czech Republic EU=100
The main economies of Emerging Europe grow
at a faster pace than EU 28Inflation: 0.1%
2016
Unemployment : 5.3%
2.0%
2017
4.3%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2018
Emerging Europe: stronger economic growth
2.6%
2018
4.1%
Poland was the only country of
the EU that avoid recession
Main European emerging countries real GDP growth*
*Average of the 4 main economies of emerging Europe: Poland, Romania, Czech Republic and Hungary
%
Forecast
Emerging Europe growth vs EU 28
Average EU 28 Emerging Europe
Forecast
Forecast

17. Eurozone: growth greater than expected
17
2.4 2.2
2016 2017 2018
The greater external demand boosts its economic activity
1.8
1.7
Real GDP gowth (%)
1.6 1.6IMF forecast
January 2017
IMF forecast
January 2018
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, January 2018

18. -1,0
,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Jul-16
Dec-16
May-17
Oct-17
UK: the rebound of inflation consolidates
18Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on ONS, IMF, 2018
Brexit negotiations move to second phase in a scenario of higher inflation
and lower growth in UK
Monthly inflation rate
% annual change
Inflation 2017 = 2.7%
Real GDP growth
%
2015
Referendum
2016
2017
2018
2.3
2014
1.9
1.8
1.5
3.1
Brexit
Forecast

19. 0.50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Bank of England official interest rate
1.31
1.08
1.15
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
Exchange rate GBP / EUR
Bank of England: rise in interest rates
19
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of England, Investing, 2018
Bank of England raised the interest rates in November after inflation YoY
was over 2%
Brexit
Brexit
%

20. Italy: growth despite the uncertainty
The Italian general elections will be held on March
1.6
2
1.600
1.700
1.800
1.900
2.000
2.100
Italy 10 year borrowing costs(%)
+27.8%
Public debt
% GDP
99.8
133
2007 2017
Private consumption
Investment
Exports
Imports
1.21.5
3.83.2
3.55.1
3.75.5
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, IMF BBVA Research, Investing 2018
-2.8
-1.7
0.1
0.8 0.9
1.6 1.4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real GDP growth
%
Macroeconomic indicators (%)
Political risk
Forecast

21. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-88
Sep-89
May-91
Jan-93
Sep-94
May-96
Jan-98
Sep-99
May-01
Jan-03
Sep-04
May-06
Jan-08
Sep-09
May-11
Jan-13
Sep-14
May-16
Jan-18
Commodities (I): Oil on rise
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA y Bloomberg, 2017 21
In 2017, the medium price of Brent was 54 $/barrel, 10$ above 2016
1
2
3
4
Stronger global economy
OPEC oil cuts
US oil inventory reductions
Geopolitical tensions
Brent barrel price ($)
69$
135$
26$
Brent Forecast 2018:
[60$-70$ ]
Reasons for higher prices

22. Commodities (II)
22Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on JP Morgan, 2018
Actual =Lowest level in 10 years Highest level in 10 years
72.88 $
88.17$
46.84 $
237.95$
101.82$
48.63$
26.21 $
69$
145.29$
84.23 $ 245.20$
138.51$
Bloomberg
Commodity Index
Agriculture
Crude oil
Industrial materials
Note: Prices are represented by the appropriate Bloomberg Commodity sub-index
Metals and energy prices recovered in 2017

23. 60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan.-18
Currency market
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on St Louis Fed, 2018 23
Since the beginning of 2017, dollar depreciation against its main trading partners
Dollar exchange rate against a weighted basket of currencies*
1973=100
• Includes euro, Canadian dollar, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Australian dolar and Swedish krona
Maximums in 14 years
Dollar against major foreign currencies, 2017
-4.5%
-9%
-4.2%
-12%

24. Financial markets
24
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on JP Morgan, CNMV, 2018
Low financial volatility and US stock markets closed at records
Stock market performance, 2017
%
98
103
108
113
118
123
128
133
138
US Stock markets
Jan 2017=100
S&P 500 DJIA Global 20.1
S&P 500 19.4
Dow Jones 25.1
Nasdaq 28.2
Eurostoxx 50 6.5
Dax 30 12.5
Cac 40 9.3
Ibex 35 7.4
Nikkei 225 19.1
Korea Cmp. 21.8

25. 25
SPAIN

26. 2017 Review
26
● Economic activity remains solid (3.1% YoY), after several upward revisions of forecasts
● Job creation (2.7% YoY) and falling unemployment rate to 16.55%
● Rising tax revenues (4.1% YoY)
● New loans and default rates (November 2017)
The strength of
external sector
Improvement in business
competitiveness
Eurozone best annual performance
since the financial crisis
Jan. - Nov. 2017
+10.5% YoY
New credit* Default rate
-13.9% YoY to 8.07% of total credits
2.5%
(Real GDP growth 2017)
Tourism record
81.8 million of international tourist arrivals
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, INE and Eurostat, 2018
+
* New consumption and housing loans for households and non-financial corporations

27. Forecasts 2018: recovery remains solid…
… although growth slows
27
2017
2018*
2016
3.3%
3.1%
2.8%
* Forecast
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Afi and INE, January 2018
IMF reduces Spain´s growth
forecasts from 2.5% to 2.4%
due to political uncertainty,
mainly in Catalonia
IMF (Jan.18) 2.4%
Bank of Spain (Dec. 17) 2.4%
European Commission (Nov. 17) 2.5%
OECD (Nov. 17) 2.3%
Government (Oct.17) 2.3%
Forecasts 2018
Spanish macroeconomic outlook
% annual change 2016 2017 2018*
Real GDP 3.3 3.1 2.8
Final consumption 2.5 2.1 1.8
Households 3.0 2.4 2.0
PPAA 0.8 1.0 1.0
GFCF 3.3 4.8 4.4
Capital goods 5.0 5.6 5.5
Construction 2.4 4.5 4.2
Domestic demand (1)
2.5 2.5 2.2
Exports 4.8 5.3 5.3
Imports 2.7 4.0 4.0
External demand (1)
0.8 0.6 0.6
CPI (annual average) -0.2 2.0 1.8
GDP Price Deflator 0.3 0.9 1.1
Nominal GDP 3.6 4.0 3.9
Employment 2.7 2.6 2.4
Unemployment rate 19.6 17.1 15.1
General government net
lending/borrowing EDP (% GDP) -4.5 -3.1 -2.6
Public debt EDP (% GDP) 99.7 98.7 97.6
Current account balance (% GDP) 2.02 1.9 1.8
(1) Growth contribution

28. Downside risks in 2018
28
Political uncertainty – mainly in Catalonia
Effects of rising oil prices on domestic demand and on current account balance
Paralyzed structural reforms
Reduction of monetary stimulus by the ECB
High level of public debt
Structural unemployment

29. Tailwinds
29
Global and European economic recovery
Employment creation
2 millions in 4 years
Debt reduction
Mainly by private sectorprivado
Monetary policy and favourable financial conditions
Spanish economy competitiveness
From 2012 → Non-energy trade surplus

30. Economic growth 2017 (I)
2017 GDP = 3.1%
• Private consumption = 2.4%
• Public consumption = 1%
• Gross fixed capital formation = 4.8%
Domestic demand
% annual change
2.5 ppgrowth contribution
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Afi, January 2018 30
0.6 pp
External demand
Goods and services
% annual change
growth contribution
• Exports = 5.3%
• Imports = 4%

31. Current economic growth (II)
Spain maintains its growth above EU average, although the positive gap is narrowing
The Spanish GDP growth follows
the Manufacturing PMI trend
31
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Markit, Eurostat and INE, 2018
Manufacturing PMI December
55.8
In parenthesis December 2016
(55.3)

32. GDP growth and employment
Spanish GDP has reached its pre-crisis level with a number of affiliates 3.8% below 2007 level
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, January 2018 32

33. Labour market (I)
33Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017
Active Population Survey Q4 2017 (INE)
490,300 new jobs were created in 2017 and the unemployment rate dropped to16.55% (3,766,700
unemployed), more than 10 points below its maximum level of Q1 2013
8.01
26.94
Q4 2017
16.55
20,753,4
16,950.6
18,998,4
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
22,0
24,0
26,0
28,0
16.000
17.000
18.000
19.000
20.000
21.000
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
Employmentand unemploymentrate Q3 2007 - Q3 2017
Thousand; % labour force
Unemployment rate
Employment

34. Labour market: public and private employment (II)
34Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017
18.9 millions of employees
Private sector
15.9 millions
Public sector
3.0 millions

35. Affiliates and unemployed 2017 in 2017
New permanent contracts in 2017
35Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security, January 2018
Affiliates to Social Security and unemployed
From its peak in February 2013 (5,040,222), unemployment rate has decreased by 1,627,441 persons.
1.9 millions
35.6% conversions from
temporary contracts
19,302,685
16,094,638
18,460,201
1,965,869
5,040,222
3,412,781
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
16.000.000
16.500.000
17.000.000
17.500.000
18.000.000
18.500.000
19.000.000
19.500.000
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Persons
Affiliates Unemployed
January 2018
Unemployment increased by 63,747
persons to 3,476,528
Affiliates decreased by 178,170
persons to 18,282,031

36. Unemployment rate in the UE and in Spain
Spanish unemployment rate is twice as high as the Eurozone average
36
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2018
Spain remains among the top 3 countries
with the highest youth unemploymet rate
(< 25 years)
Greece
Spain
Italy
40.8%
36.8%
32.2%

37. Pensions system
37Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security, January 2018
Number of pensions, average pension and public expenditure in pensions
have been increasing since 2007…
2007 Jan. 2018
Millions
8.3 9.6
2007
679 930
2007 2017
% PIB
8.7 12.0
Pensions Average pension Public expenditure in pensions€ / month
Total
Retirement 4.9 5.9 767 1,075
Ratio contributor-pensionist
2007 2017
2.71 2.23
Reserve Fund
The Spanish Treasury might lend the government €15 bn
to finance extraordinary pensions in 2018
Social Security
revenues
▲5.3%
in 2017
Social Security deficit
23.4
years
Pensionable ages
(vs. 20.3 in OECD)
Jan. 2018
Years after retirement
0,8
1,0 1,0 1,1
1,3 1,3
0,7 0,7
-0,2 -0,1
-1,0
-1,1 -1,0
-1,2
-1,6
-1,4
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016(F)
2017(*)
% GDP
* targetStabiliy Programme 2017-2020
2011 € 66.8 bn
2017 € 8.1 bn

38. Prices are rising below the
Eurozone average after 13
months maintaining a
positive gap.
38Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE and Eurostat, 2018
Prices: CPI slowdown
December CPI = 1.1%
In January 2018,
estimated CPI is 0.5%, its
lowest level over the last
16 months, due to
electricity prices drop

39. 39Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE and Eurostat, 2018
Real state market
Since 2015 housing prices and investment are recovering
0.8
1.1 2.5 1.7
5.3
-0.3
-1.7
10.3
9.6
2.5
4.2
1
8.5
2.4
0.9
6.3
5.6
Rent prices
2017
By regions
-25,0
-20,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
Construction investment
% annual change
Construction investment
Housing investment
Other

40. Financial conditions
40
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2018
Low interest rate environment keeps driving new financing operations
Between Jan. and Nov. 2017, small and
medium companies received most part of
new loans to companies (< 1 million €)

41. Public accounts
41Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, 2018
Deficit targets
Jan. – Nov. 2017: tax revenues amounted to €180.3 bn
(+4.1% YoY)
Forecast 2017 → 200.9 bn (+7.9% YoY)
* Private sector debt
2017 2018 2019 2020
General Government -1.1 -0.7 -0.3 0
Regional Administrations -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0
Local Entities 0 0 0 0
Social Security -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5
Total PPAA -3.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5
35.6 39.4
52.7
60.1
69.5
85.7
95.5 100.4 99.4 99 98.1
1.9
-4.4
-11
-9.5 -9.3
-6.8 -6.7
-5.8 -5.2
-4.3
-3.1
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
12,0
10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
General government net lending/borrowing
and public debt
% GDP
Debt Net lending/borrowing
Total 138.4%
Households 61.8%
Non-financial corporations 76.6%

42. 42
Spanish position within international trade
Spain ranks among the top 5 goods exporters
Share in world total exports
(Spanish exports / world exports), %
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, January 2018
Share in world total exports
1 China 13.2
2 USA 9.1
3 Germany 8.4
4 Japan 4.0
5 Netherlands 3.6
…
16 SPAIN 1.8

43. 43
Trade balance, January – November 2017
(% annual change)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, January 2018
External sector
Imports
Capital goods
Chemical products
Energy
Exports ▲ 9.1% 255,155.1 M€
Imports ▲ 11.1% 277,849.2 M€
BALANCE ▲ Deficit 39.2% -22,694.2 M€
▲ 31.1% energy
deficit
Top 3 sectors
(% of the total)
20.3
16.4
16.4
Exports
Capital goods
Food
Automotive industry
21.4
15.0
13.2
Geographical distribution
(% to the total)
Exports Imports
Europe 71.7 60.5
EU 65.8 54.8
America 10.7 11
Asia 9.3 20.2
China 2.3 8.5
Africa 6.4 7.9
Other 1.9 0.4

44. Energy: higher trade balance deficit due to higher
oil prices
44Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, Bloomberg, Eurostat and Club Español de la Energía, 2017 and 2018
The increase in oil prices affects trade deficit
(▲ imports value) and private consumption
Spain → Energy dependence (72.3%)
Almost 20 points above EU28 average
• ▲ demand in the context of global growth
• Supply restrictive policies
• Geopolitical conflicts
• ▼ supply of shale oil due to natural disasters
▲ oil prices, due to:

45. Tourism
45
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE and Turespaña, 2018
Tourism strength
2017
Main countries of origin Main destinations
UK
Germany
France
18.8 millions
11.9 millions
11.2 millions
Catalonia
Canary I.
Balearic I.
19 millions
14.2 millions
13.8 millions
2017
Record in
tourists
arrivals
81.8
millions
▲ 8.6%
YoY
Record in
tourism
expenditure
86,823
millions €
▲ 12.2%
YoY
Spain might be in the 2nd place
in the international ranking,
following France and above USA

46. 46Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE and Eurostat, 2018
Spanish business sector
January 1st, 2017, 3,282,346 companies in Spain
Companies by size
% to the total
Micro
(0-9)
Small
(10-49)
Medium
(50-249)
Large
(> 250)
Micro
(0-9)
Small
(10-49)
Medium
(50-249)
Large
(> 250)
Spain 93.11 5.99 0.78 0.12 94.83 4.44 0.6 0.12
Germany 82.86 14.18 2.45 0.52 82.16 14.83 2.53 0.47
France 94.46 4.59 0.78 0.16 95.26 3.98 0.62 0.14
Italy 94.27 5.11 0.53 0.08 95.2 4.23 0.49 0.08
Portugal 94.93 4.35 0.63 0.09 95.25 4.03 0.62 0.1
United Kingdom 89.29 8.79 1.55 0.37 88.94 9.25 1.48 0.32
2008 2017 (Eurostat forecasts)
In 2017 Q4, the creation of
companies in Spain fell by
3.8% (21,763 new
corporations).
In 2017 it decreased by
7.2% (94.998 new business)
-15.9
2.2 -15 2.8
23.8
8.3
-19.1
-18.3
1.6
-5.6
-2.8
-1.3
1.2
4.6
-2
4.1
9.5
2017 Q4
Bt region
% annual
change
Total
-3,8

47. Corporates in Catalonia
47Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017
The creation of corporations in Catalonia
decreased in November by 19%
compared with the same month of 2016
(vs. -2% at a national level)
Companies whichhave moved their headquarters out of Catalonia between
Oct. 1st, 2018 and Dec. 31st 2017 3,208
The companies that have moved their
headquarters = 40% of its regional GDP
Between October the 1st and February 2018,
3,220 companies moved their headquarters
out of Catalonia (85% of its market
capitalization).

48. Interest rates and risk premium
48Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2018
The risk premium is again below 90 bp, in minimum levels over the last 3 years
▼ Spanish 10 year yield < 1.40%.
Fitch: ▲ Spanish credit rating
BBB + (positive) → A- (stable)
▲ German 10 years yield
to around 0.73%.

49. Financial markets: Ibex 35
49Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BME and Investing, 2018
Ibex 35 closed 2017 with annual
gains of 7.4%
2017 annual gains
Closing
2017
Gains
2017
IBEX 35 10.043,9 7,40%
IBEX 35 WITH DIV 26.939,6 11,25%
IBEX 35 MEDIUM CAP 15.060,0 3,97%
IBEX 35 SMALL CAP 6.580,2 31,44%

50. Spain’s position in international rankings
N. Zealand
Singapore
Denmark
SPAIN
50
Global Gender Gap Index 2017
(144 countries)
Source: WEF, Nov. 2017
▲ 5
( vs. 2016)
Korea
Sweden
Singapore
SPAIN
1
2
3
29
2018 Innovation Index
(50 countries)
Source: Bloomberg, 2018
1
2
3
28
Doing Business 2018
(119 countries)
Source: World Bank, 2017
▲4
(vs. 2017)
Iceland
N. Zealand
Israel
SPAIN
1
2
3
25
Golden Age Index
(34 OECD countries)
Source: PwC, 2017
=
(vs. 2016)
USA
Switzerland
Canada
SPAIN
1
1
3
34
Global Entrepreneurship Index 2018
(137 countries)
Source: GEDI, 2017
Iceland
Norway
Finland
SPAIN
1
2
3
24
Estonia
N. Zeleand
Switzerland
SPAIN
1
2
3
28
2017 International Tax Competitiveness
Index (35 countries)
Source: Tax Foundation, 2017
=
(vs. 2016)
=
(vs. 2017)
▼ 1
(vs. 2017)

51. www.circulodeempresarios.org
‘The quarterly report’, is a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However the Círculo de
Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de Empresarios is not responsible
for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without any warning.