Tightening labour markets: threat or opportunity for HR service providers? The presentation start with an economic outlook and the conséquences for the labour market in Belgium. With some concluding remarks voor HR service providers.
2. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ‘2018’ - SUMMARY
WORLD ECONOMY IS KEEPING ITS MOMENTUM
THE GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2018 IS HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS
US GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CHINA WILL MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY EXPANSIONARY POLICY MIX TO MEET THE
TARGET OF DOUBLING REAL GDP BETWEEN 2010 AND 2020
POSITIVE SIGNS COMING FROM EUROPE
BELGIAN ECONOMY
CONTINUING GDP-GROWTH WITH HIGH LABOUR INTENSITY
CONFIDENCE INDICATORS AT A HIGH LEVEL
INCREASED DYNAMICS IN A TIGHTENING LABOUR MARKET
CONCLUDING REMARKS FOR FEDERGON MEMBERS
4. “THE GLOBAL UPSWING IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS STRENGTHENING.”
“NOTABLE UPSIDE SURPRISES” IN EUROPE & ASIA
“GLOBAL ECONOMY IS PROJECTED TO GROW 3.9% IN 2018 & IN 2019.”
“BUT: GROWTH REMAINS WEAK IN MANY COUNTRIES, AND INFLATION REMAINS BELOW TARGET IN MOST
ADVANCED ECONOMIES.”
2016 2017 2018
USA 1.5 2.2 2.7
Euro Area 1.8 2.1 2.2
Japan 1.0 1.5 0.7
UK 1.8 1.7 1.5
Russia -0.2 1.8 1.6
China 6.7 6.8 6.5
India 7.1 6.7 7.4
World 3.2 3.6 3.9
« BROADEST SYNCHRONISED GLOBAL GROWTH
UPSURGE SINCE 2010 » (IMF in its most recent study - January 2018)
Realised & estimated economic growth (in %) (IMF)
5. UNITED STATES: THE WORLD’S LEADING ECONOMY STILL ON TRACK
MOST ECONOMIC INDICATORS ARE POSITIVE: the projection of a continuation of near-term growth that is moderately above
potential, reflects very supportive financial conditions and strong business and consumer confidence.
The FISCAL STIMULUS (lower rates in personal income tax (especially for high income earners), higher tax exemption
and lower tax for companies) by president Trump will have a moderate effect on the real economy.
FED HAS STARTED TO TIGHTEN MONETARY POLICY: three rate rises (federal funds rate – short-term interbank rate) in 2017,
and three are expected in 2018.
The problem is that INFLATION remains hard to spot (1.4% - 12/2017).
The labour market has continued to strengthen and the economic activity has been rising moderately with:
• solid job gains
• unemployment rate below the long-term average
• household spending and business fixed investment that have continued
to expand.
So wages are rising, but the impact on inflation up-to-now is rather low. GDP Growth:
+2.3%(Q3 yoy)
6. CHINA: GROWTH HAS PICKED UP! HEADING TOWARDS A MORE SERVICE-
ORIENTED ECONOMY FUELED BY STRONG CONSUMPTION.
GDP GROWTH 2017: +6.9% (6.7% in 2016).
CONSIDERING FULL 2017: primary sector (+3.9%), secondary sector (+6.6%) and services sector (8.2%).
TOTAL TRADE jumped 14.2%, ending two years of declines. Exports increased 10.8% and imports 18.7%.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING is still high in order to meet the target of doubling the 2010 real GDP by 2020.
Regarding PROPERTY SECTORS, Beijng is trying to control debt and prevent a housing bubble through tough
measures with a (rather moderate) effect on overall growth.
GDP Growth:
+6.8%(Q4 yoy)
final
consumption
59%
investment
32%
net exports
9%
2017: CONTRIBUT I ON
TO CHINES E GDP GROWTH
7. EUROPE: GROWTH FIGURES FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED
GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR 2018 REVISED UP e.g. in France, Germany, Italy and Spain reflecting stronger
momentum in domestic demand than previously anticipated (especially boosted by fixed investment,
household consumption and export).
BENEFITING from:
cheap oil (once more)
low inflation
low interest rates – although changes are expected
an active European Central Bank – although changes are expected
a strong domestic market (Consumption & Investment)
diminished political risk and policy uncertainty.
THE MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK: the favourable momentum will continue in 2018-2019, with rapidly
decreasing unemployment rate and rising employment and vacancy rates.
BUT INFLATION remains low.
THE BREXIT remains a big question mark. In the meanwhile, economic growth is slowing
down in the UK.
GDP Growth:
+2,6%(Q3 yoy)
8. EUROPE: THE € EXCHANGE RATE !
Compared to the $ & the £, the €has STRENGTHENED in real effective terms during the last months
because of increased confidence in the euro area recovery and a decline in political risk.
As long as global growth remains solid, the impact of a stronger € on the exports is rather limited.
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000M1
2000M8
2001M3
2001M10
2002M6
2003M1
2003M8
2004M3
2004M10
2005M5
2005M12
2006M7
2007M2
2007M9
2008M4
2008M11
2009M6
2010M1
2010M8
2011M3
2011M10
2012M5
2012M12
2013M7
2014M2
2014M9
2015M4
2015M11
2016M6
2017M1
2017M8
1€ = ?$ or ?£
$
£
9. INFLATION
WHAT AND WHY?
HEADLINE INFLATION remains at levels well below central bank targets in most advanced economies.
COMMODITY PRICES rise slowly in most cases but are still far from record levels.
CORE INFLATION has remained broadly stable. It has largely been stable in emerging economies as well.
Does the Phillips-curve belong to the past?
Historically, a favourable economic climate and decreasing
unemployment automatically led to a rise in inflation. Nowadays, this
correlation described by Phillips is less and less observed. The reasons
are: digitalisation, innovation, globalisation, population ageing (older
people tend to save more and spend less money), the changing economic
fabric with a growing and more fragmented service sector, more
diversified forms of work and employment relations, …
10. RISKS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY
Policy uncertainty
- U.S. internal & external policies
- negotiations of post-Brexit arrangements
- Italian elections
- …
Persistently low inflation in
advanced economies
Financial tensions
- China has to curb the excessive credit growth
- Tightening of global financial conditions
- In some euro area countries: weak bank
balance sheets.
Non-economic factors
- Rising geopolitical tensions and domestic
political discord
12. BELGIAN ECONOMY: 18TH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER OF POSITIVE GROWTH
PREDICTIONS
2017: 1.7% (once more revised upwards due to strong first semester)
2018: 1.7% (revised upwards by NBB in December 2017)
2019: 1.5%
2020: 1.4%
WHAT ARE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF THE ECONOMIC GROWTH?
Growth will be driven by domestic demand in the coming years due
to:
• higher labour income (also due to rise in employment)
• lower personal income taxes (both resulting from the tax
shift operation)
• strong rise in dividends.
The growth is still supported to a large extent – and more than in
other countries – by the expansion of investment.
The low interest rates stimulate both indicators
* Q3 ‘14/Q3 ‘13 = +0,9% | Source: NBB
0.2%
0.4%0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
0.1%
0.5%
0.3%
0.7%
0.1%
0.3%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.5%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
GDP
(Chain linked - Q/Q-1)
14. 0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
%
consumption index health index
INFLATION RATE: AT EUROPEAN LEVEL
NO FURTHER IMPACT ON WAGES IN 2018?
According to the monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the
pivotal index for public wages and social benefits should not be
exceeded by the ‘smoothed health index’ in 2018.
INFLATION 2017
The average consumer price index: 2.13% in 2017
The average 'health price index’(*): 1.85% in 2017
INFLATION PROJECTIONS 2018
The new ‘contribution to the Energy Fund’ is taken into account.
The average consumer price index: 1.6% in 2018
The average 'health price index’(*): 1.3% in 2018
(*) used for the automatic indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent
Source: Planning Office
16. A CONTINUING INCREASE OF EMPLOYMENT
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
0.5%
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3
Employment Q4 2017 (total growth (Q/(Q-1))
Source: NBB
0.2%
-0.5%
-0.04%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.8%
1.1%
Total economy
Financial & insurance
Public & Education
Industry
Wholesale & retail trade, transport
Construction
Agriculture
Information & communication
Entertainment & recreation
Human Health & social work
Science, tech & administration
Real estate
Employment growth Q3 2017 (Q/(Q-1))
17. IMPACT OF WAGE MODERATION
Positive impact on employment, besides the effect of the positive conjuncture.
The Belgian Government continues in its efforts to lower the cost of labour.
New tax-cut as of 01/01/2018 => The wage gap that existed since 1996 is disappearing
completely.
Source: Eurostat
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3
Labour cost index % change Q/Q-4
Euro area (19 countries) EU (28 countries) Belgium Germany France Netherlands United Kingdom
19. JOB GROWTH AND REPLACEMENT DEMAND: BELGIUM
Source: Steunpunt WSE
Agriculture
Energy
Industry: intermediate goods
Industry: capital goods
Industry: consumer goods
Construction
Transport &
Communication
Trade & Horeca
Credit &
Insurance
Other market
services
Health and social
services
Administration &
Education
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%
Predictedannualjobgrowth(2016-2022)
% over 55s (2016)
REGIONAL FIGURES? CLICK HERE
THE CHART SHOWS THE SHARE OF WORKERS OVER 55 YEARS OLD IN
2016 (HORIZONTAL AXIS) AND THE EMPLOYMENT PREDICTIONS FOR THE
PERIOD 2016-2022 (VERTICAL AXIS) IN DIFFERENT SECTORS.
THE SIZE OF THE “BUBBLES” IS DETERMINED BY THE NUMBER OF
WORKERS IN THE SECTOR IN 2016.
THE GRAPH IS DIVIDED IN FOUR QUADRANTS, THE AXES BEING CROSSED
ACCORDING TO THE RESPECTIVE AVERAGES IN BELGIUM.
FOR INSTANCE, THE TRANSPORT & COMMUNICATION SECTOR: THIS
SECTOR COMBINES MODERATE JOB GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND A VERY
HIGH PERCENTAGE OF WORKERS OVER 55. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
REPLACEMENT DEMAND.
THE HEALTH & SOCIAL SERVICES SECTOR COMBINES VERY POSITIVE JOB
GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND A RATHER HIGH SHARE OF WORKERS OVER
55.
20. 2.0%
4.1%
3.6%
2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%
2.0% 2.0% 1.9%
1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%
1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
0.9% 0.8%
EuropeanUnion…
CzechRepublic
Belgium
Germany
Austria
UnitedKingdom
Netherlands
Hungary
Estonia
Slovenia
Sweden
Norway
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Croatia
Finland
Former…
Cyprus
Romania
Switzerland
Ireland
Poland
Slovakia
Portugal
Bulgaria
Source: NBB
JOB VACANCY RATE REFLECTS MALFUNCTIONING &
TIGHTENING OF THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET
IT REFLECTS THE UNMET DEMAND FOR LABOUR, AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
MISMATCHES BETWEEN THE SKILLS AND AVAILABILITY OF THOSE WHO ARE
UNEMPLOYED AND THOSE SOUGHT BY EMPLOYERS.
Source: Eurostat
2.0
3.6
Evolution of the job vacancy rate
European Union (28 countries) Belgium
Job vacancy rate =
𝑣𝑎𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠
𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑒𝑑+𝑢𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠
21. Source: NBB
SCARCITY: JOB VACANCY RATE BY NACE
(BELGIUM – Q3 2017)
Source: Eurostat
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.3%
2.5%
2.6%
3.0%
3.2%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
5.5%
6.8%
7.9%
B - Mining and quarrying
D - Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
E - Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
P - Education
Q - Human health and social work activities
K - Financial and insurance activities
C - Manufacturing
S - Other service activities
G - Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
H - Transportation and storage
I - Accommodation and food service activities
L - Real estate activities
R - Arts, entertainment and recreation
O - Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
F - Construction
M - Professional, scientific and technical activities
J - Information and communication
N - Administrative and support service activities
22. THE BIGGEST ISSUE: TOO MANY INACTIVE PEOPLE
[CELLRANGE]
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
65 70 75 80 85 90
Vacancyrate
Activity rate
Activity rate vs. vacancy rate
=> WE NEED TO REDUCE UNACTIVITY AND ENCOURAGE INACTIVE PEOPLE TO (RE-)ENTER THE LABOUR RESERVE
Source: Eurostat
Activity rate =
𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑑+𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒
23. THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE DONE IN FIGHT AGAINST UNEMPLOYMENT
=> WE COMBINE A AVERAGE HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WITH A HIGH VACANCY RATE
Source: Eurostat
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[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Vacancyrate
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate vs. vacancy rate
Unemployment rate =
𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒
𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑑+𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒
24. THE CONTINUING AND BETTER THAN EXPECTED ECONOMIC GROWTH, CHARACTERIZED BY A
QUITE HIGH JOB INTENSITY, RESULTS IN A STEADY NET EMPLOYMENT GROWTH. WE SEE THIS
JOB GROWTH ESPECIALLY IN PROFIT MAKING SECTORS. MOREOVER, THE DEMOGRAPHIC
PRESSURE DRIVES THE REPLACEMENT DEMAND IN A LOT OF COMPANIES AND SECTORS.
THE MISMATCH PROBLEM AND LABOUR SHORTAGES ARE BACK IN THE FOREFRONT, TO SUCH
AN EXTENT THAT THE ECONOMIC GROWTH REMAINS BELOW ITS POTENTIAL. THIS ALSO
APPLIES TO THE GROWTH IN THE FEDERGON-SECTORS, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY CHALLENGED
BY THE TIGHTENING LABOUR MARKET, THE IMPACT OF WHICH DIFFERS, NEVERTHELESS,
BETWEEN GEOGRAPHIC AREAS AND JOB FUNCTIONS.
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN THE SHORT & MEDIUM TERM REMAINS POSITIVE. THE
CHALLENGE IS STILL TO FIND CREATIVE AND INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HR PROBLEMS IN
CLIENT COMPANIES. ANYHOW, THE PUBLIC AUTHORITIES CAN PLAY A FACILITATING ROLE,
NAMELY CONTINUE TO PUT THE FOCUS ON ACTIVATION OF THE LABOUR RESERVE THROUGH A
CLOSER CONTROL OF THE AVAILABILITY OF THE UNEMPLOYED AND INACTIVE AND RELENTLESS
EFFORTS IN TRAINING AND GUIDANCE.
CONCLUDING REMARKS