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BPV Capital
Market Update
June
2016
GLOBAL MARKET SUMMARY
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 2
Brexit vote in June created global uncertainty and market volatility
United States
Economic: Employment data for May was very poor, while retail sales
continue to rebound from a slow start to the year.
Business Cycle: Late-cycle dynamics are taking shape and the domestic
economy looks poised for an extended late cycle.
Equities
US Equities overcame a post-Brexit decline of over 4.5% to finish the month
0.26% higher.
Fixed Income
Interest rates across the curve were much lower after the Brexit vote
pushed global yields lower due to global economic uncertainty. German
Bund interest rates are now negative out to 15 years.
Currencies
The pound was the most directly impacted currency following the Brexit
vote, hitting new 30-year lows against the dollar and finishing the month at
1.33. The yen’s role as a safe haven currency caused it to strengthen to
103.
Volatility
The VIX quickly fell from a post-Brexit jump and finished the month near its
YTD average.
Commodities
Gold rallied following the Brexit vote and finished the month as
one of the best performing asset classes. Oil was lower with the
added uncertainty.
Europe
The UK referendum dominated headlines and financial market movements
in the month and caused European equities to underperform domestic
markets.
China
China used the Brexit volatility to weaken the yuan again this month, which
is now 3.01% weaker than its YTD high in March.
June 2016
CHART OF THE MONTH
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After many months of speculation it finally happened. The United
Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Up until the very end, most
market participants believed that the status quo would prevail and the
UK would choose to remain in the EU despite polls showing that it was a
tossup. The surprising victory from the “leave” voters wreaked havoc on
markets during the two days following the Brexit. Stock markets
worldwide sold off, bonds rallied, the pound weakened significantly and
gold rallied as the demand for safe haven assets increased.
Almost as soon as it had begun, the fear that caused markets to sell
off seemed to disappear. Over the last 3 days of the month, US equities
rallied 4.95%, European equites rallied 6.20%, and the FTSE 100 rallied
almost 9% and completely regained all of the losses caused by the
Brexit vote. The reason for the sharp rebound isn’t extremely clear,
but it seems like markets aren’t too concerned because there will be no
immediate changes. The UK has to elect a new Prime Minister this fall,
and then they will begin the lengthy 2 year process of negotiating
their exit from the EU.
While stock markets recovered, the same can’t be said for fixed income
and foreign exchange markets. The Brexit resulted in a 11% loss for the
Sterling during the two days after the vote, and although it has
slightly recovered it is still significantly weaker than it was pre-
Brexit. Global bond markets seem to be convinced that the UK’s decision
is just one more factor to cause global growth to be stuck in a low
gear with very accommodative central banks. Global bond yields fell
following the Brexit and continued to fall through month end with
German yields reaching negative territory all the way out to 15 years
and UK yields hitting new lows.
If one thing is certain going forward, it is that there will be a lot
of uncertainty over the next several months. No one knows how clean the
break-up between the UK and the EU will be, many other European
elections take place in the coming months, and the US elects a new
president in November. Global growth has struggled to pick up in recent
Brexit vote has major impact on the Sterling
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
GBP/USD
EQUITY PERFORMANCE
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Data as of June 30, 2016
PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
S&P 500 2,098.86 0.26% 2.46% 3.84% 3.98%
Consumer Discretionary 620.41 (1.18%) (0.91%) 0.68% 3.78%
Consumer Staples 564.99 5.18% 4.63% 10.46% 18.66%
Energy 512.39 3.28% 11.62% 16.10% (3.92%)
Financials 308.39 (3.21%) 2.12% (3.05%) (4.21%)
Healthcare 829.45 1.02% 6.27% 0.42% (2.02%)
Industrials 487.51 0.99% 1.40% 6.46% 7.01%
Information Technology 713.04 (2.76%) (2.84%) (0.32%) 4.79%
Materials 290.62 (0.89%) 3.71% 7.46% (2.04%)
Telecommunications 182.64 9.34% 7.06% 24.85% 25.14%
Utilities 266.70 7.81% 6.79% 23.41% 31.47%
Russell 2000 1,151.92 (0.06%) 3.79% 2.21% (6.74%)
Europe (Stoxx 600) 329.88 (4.77%) (0.39%) (7.34%) (10.36%)
Germany (DAX) 9,680.09 (5.68%) (2.86%) (9.89%) (11.56%)
China (Shanghai Composite) 2,929.61 1.14% (1.64%) (16.50%) (30.18%)
Japan (Nikkei) 15,575.92 (9.52%) (6.95%) (17.38%) (21.59%)
FIXED INCOME PERFORMANCE
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1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
Barclay's US Treasury 1-3 YR 0.60% 0.53% 1.44% 1.41%
Barclay's US Treasury 7-10 YR 2.93% 2.76% 7.56% 9.98%
Barclay's US Treasury 20+ YR 6.42% 6.76% 15.83% 22.22%
BofAML 1-3YR Agency and Treasury 0.59% 0.52% 1.42% 1.40%
Bloomberg Corporate Bond Index 2.25% 3.54% 7.61% 7.70%
Bloomberg High Yield Bond Index 1.13% 5.69% 9.58% 2.39%
YIELD 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
US 2 YR 0.58% 0.88% 0.72% 1.05% 0.64%
US 5 YR 1.00% 1.37% 1.20% 1.76% 1.65%
US 10 YR 1.47% 1.85% 1.77% 2.27% 2.35%
US 30 YR 2.28% 2.65% 2.61% 3.02% 3.12%
5 YR Breakeven 1.40% 1.49% 1.51% 1.28% 1.67%
10 YR Breakeven 1.44% 1.58% 1.63% 1.58% 1.89%
Germany (0.13%) 0.14% 0.15% 0.63% 0.76%
France 0.18% 0.48% 0.49% 0.99% 1.19%
Italy 1.26% 1.35% 1.22% 1.59% 2.33%
Spain 1.16% 1.47% 1.43% 1.77% 2.30%
UK 0.87% 1.43% 1.42% 1.96% 2.02%
Japan (0.22%) (0.12%) (0.04%) 0.26% 0.46%
Data as of June 30, 2016
CURRENCIES PERFORMANCE
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Data as of June 30, 2016
PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
USD/JPY 103.20 (6.80%) (8.32%) (14.39%) (15.76%)
EUR/USD 1.11 (0.23%) (2.41%) 2.30% (0.37%)
GBP/USD 1.33 (8.09%) (7.31%) (9.73%) (15.28%)
USD/CHF 0.98 (1.80%) 1.48% (2.54%) 4.33%
USD/CAD 1.29 (1.29%) (0.62%) (6.72%) 3.44%
USD/SEK 8.46 1.52% 4.21% 0.00% 2.08%
AUD/USD 0.75 3.00% (2.69%) 2.03% (3.32%)
DXY Index 96.14 0.26% 1.65% (2.57%) 0.69%
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.63 3.07% 0.29% 4.59% (7.10%)
COMMODITIES PERFORMANCE
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PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR
Bloomberg Commodity Index 88.84 4.11% 12.71% 14.04% (13.48%)
Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 2.92 22.70% 32.19% 16.63% (6.97%)
WTI USD/bbl. 48.33 (2.42%) 16.85% 15.73% (22.14%)
Brent USD/bbl. 49.71 (1.15%) 19.09% 17.24% (27.21%)
WTI-Brent USD/bbl. (1.35) (0.59) (1.26) (0.46) (4.12)
Gasoline USd/gal. 150.13 (6.89%) 4.16% 0.35% (21.48%)
Heating Oil USd/gal. 148.87 (1.14%) 19.91% 18.11% (24.92%)
Copper USd/lb. 219.55 4.42% (0.07%) 4.67% (17.03%)
Aluminum USD/MT 1,649.00 5.98% 8.49% 11.95% (2.48%)
Zinc USD/MT 2,102.00 9.41% 15.61% 32.81% 4.07%
Nickel USD/MT 9,410.00 11.84% 10.73% 10.11% (22.33%)
Gold USD/t oz. 1,321.90 8.77% 7.23% 23.01% 12.76%
Silver USD/t oz. 18.71 17.00% 21.23% 34.90% 18.93%
Platinum USD/t oz. 1,024.40 4.59% 4.99% 15.94% (5.05%)
Palladium USD/t oz. 599.72 9.62% 6.32% 10.96% (11.22%)
Corn USd/bu. 365.50 (10.14%) 1.39% (0.95%) (15.39%)
Soybean USd/bu. 1,153.25 9.24% 24.71% 32.14% 19.01%
Live Cattle USd/lb. 114.83 (2.73%) (4.45%) (7.19%) (19.42%)
Cocoa USD/MT 2,963.00 (2.08%) 0.61% (4.91%) (7.92%)
Coffee USd/lb. 145.65 17.98% 10.97% 12.34% 0.28%
Lean Hog USd/lb. 83.28 3.00% 3.58% 7.94% 8.47%
Sugar USd/lb. 20.33 15.12% 30.24% 40.69% 45.32%
Wheat USd/bu. 445.50 (6.31%) (9.13%) (7.57%) (29.43%)
Cotton USd/lb. 64.17 0.98% 11.08% (0.20%) (3.05%)
Data as of June 30, 2016
MACROECONOMIC SUMMARY
United States
• GDP: First quarter GDP was again revised higher, increasing
to 1.1% from 0.8%. Initial estimates for second quarter GDP
are showing a significant rebound in activity and data has been
positive. The first Q2 GDP release is July 29.
• Employment: The May employment report was much worse
than expectations and showed the economy only added 38k
jobs in the month. One caveat to the poor headline number is
that it included roughly 35k Verizon Wireless employees that
were striking in the month who have now returned back to
work. However when these workers are added back into the
total, the report is still very poor at only 73k jobs added.
• The unemployment rate decreased to 4.7% in the
month, but this was largely due to a decline in the labor
force participation rate to 62.6%.
• Consumer: The consumer sector rebounded after a rough
start to the year and retail sales again beat expectations,
increasing by 0.5% in May on top of a very strong
April reading.
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Economic data in the US is beginning to improve
Employment data was a break from recent positive trend
Retail sales continue to improve
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Retail Sales MoM
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
61.8
62.0
62.2
62.4
62.6
62.8
63.0
63.2
63.4
63.6 Labor Force Participation Nonfarm Payrolls
BUSINESS CYCLE
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Currently in beginning stages of prolonged late cycle
Operating margins continue to decline
Lack of inflation could prolong late cycle
Indicators of the Late Cycle
• Above trend rates of inflation
• GDP and Industrial Production begin to hit slower
growth rates
• Monetary policy tightens
• Profit margins deteriorate
• Inventories tend to build unexpectedly as sales decline
• During the late cycle equities historically average annual returns
of 5%, slowing down from 15% a year in the
mid-cycle.
Late Cycle Transition: We believe that the US economy is currently
at the beginning of the late stage of the business cycle. The economy
is showing signs of moderating, with profit margins starting to decline,
lackluster GDP growth, and poor manufacturing data. While inflation
is currently increasing and the Fed is at the beginning of a tightening
cycle, both are occurring at a much slower pace than usual.
• The late cycle typically lasts roughly one year in length
before transitioning to a recession, but the lack of inflation
and monetary tightening suggests the business cycle,
specifically the late cycle, could last longer than its historical
average.
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0% Operating Margin
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 Headline CPI
EQUITIES
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Equities flat after Brexit volatility
Valuations still high relative to historical levels
Utilities rallied with uncertainty, financials sold offBrexit Reaction: The S&P 500 finished the month 0.26% higher
despite a decline of 5.32% the two-days following the UK referendum.
This loss was quickly offset by a rally in equities the following four days
to close the month.
Utilities vs Banks: The risk-off environment that followed the Brexit
scare led utilities to outperform versus other sectors and utilities actually
posted gains during the short drawdown. The flight to safety pushed
fixed income yields so low that investors resumed their search for yield
and flowed into utilities. Utilities ended up 7.81% higher while financials
lost 3.21%. Banks react to interest rates in the opposite way, and the
sector saw very large declines as interest rates came down and
expectations for the second Fed rate hike dramatically declined. Also
contributing to the drawdown in banks were concerns about the financial
stability in London and how that affects the very large European banks
that are headquartered there.
Valuations: Unlike the February drawdown where valuations decreased
and provided an attractive entry point into equities, valuations remained
high after the Brexit and will remain in focus as Q2 earnings season
begins in July.
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
105.0
106.0
107.0
108.0
109.0
110.0
111.0
112.0 Trailing 12M EPS Trailing P/E
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108 S&P 500 Index Utilities Financials
FIXED INCOME
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Long-term interest rates decrease as investors flocked to safe havens
The yield curve decreased across the board in JuneYield Curve: Interest rates across the curve saw dramatic decreases
after the referendum. Unlike equities, they did not recover much of
their decline in the last week of the month. Investors flocked to safe
haven assets, which drove demand for government bonds worldwide.
The US has higher interest rates than most developed economies,
making it more attractive relative to the rest of the world. This demand
is what drove interest rates so much lower in the month.
Federal Reserve: Fed fund futures are not showing a rate increase
until 2018 following the Brexit vote. Prior to the vote markets predicted
an increase as early as July, but with central banks around the world
offering additional easing to cure financial market volatility,
expectations for another Fed rate hike have been taken off the table
for now.
Interest Rate Changes
1M 2YR 5YR 10YR 30YR
5/31/16 0.18% 0.88% 1.37% 1.85% 2.65%
6/30/16 0.17% 0.58% 1.00% 1.47% 2.28%
Change (0.01%) (0.30%) (0.37%) (0.38%) (0.36%)
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00% 5/31/2016 6/30/2016
FIXED INCOME
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High yield spreads increased in risk-off environment
High yield spreads are now 6.31%
High Yield: High yield spreads increased to 6.31% following the
referendum as investors focused on high quality assets.
• While the spread seems low compared to highs seen in the
first quarter of 2016, it is still 0.91% above the five-year
average of 5.40% and remains elevated due to the low oil
price environment.
Breakevens: 10-year inflation expectations decreased to 1.43%, with
most of the loss coming after the referendum. Investors expect central
banks to extend even more monetary accommodation in the near
future to compensate for the added financial market volatility
surrounding the Brexit.
Mortgage Backed Securities: Mortgage Backed Securities
underperformed treasuries during the month as the fall in interest
rates caused MBS spreads to widen. However, despite the
underperformance, the Barclays U.S. MBS index was still up 0.81%
during the month due to the strong demand for safe
haven assets.
1.00%
1.10%
1.20%
1.30%
1.40%
1.50%
1.60%
1.70%
1.80%
1.90%
2.00%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
High Yield Spread 10 YR Breakeven
FIXED INCOME
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German Bund 15-year interest rate now in negative territory
Maturity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
Switzerland (1.15%) (1.19%) (1.17%) (1.10%) (1.05%) (0.96%) (0.89%) (0.76%) (0.67%) (0.61%) (0.41%) (0.26%) (0.11%)
Netherlands (0.61%) (0.60%) (0.58%) (0.56%) (0.42%) (0.40%) (0.28%) (0.17%) (0.04%) 0.08% 0.26% 0.32% 0.51%
Finland (0.61%) (0.58%) (0.57%) (0.47%) (0.42%) (0.30%) (0.23%) (0.10%) (0.02%) 0.14% 0.37% 0.54%
Sweden (0.63%) (0.50%) (0.29%) (0.14%) 0.03% 0.25% 0.77% 1.12%
France (0.55%) (0.55%) (0.52%) (0.45%) (0.36%) (0.29%) (0.20%) (0.09%) 0.05% 0.18% 0.49% 0.73% 0.91%
Greece 7.21% 8.92% 8.18% 7.96% 7.83%
Italy (0.21%) (0.11%) (0.04%) 0.07% 0.29% 0.49% 0.67% 0.90% 1.09% 1.26% 1.52% 1.92% 2.27%
Spain (0.24%) (0.20%) (0.12%) 0.01% 0.18% 0.27% 0.49% 0.84% 0.97% 1.16% 1.48% 1.88% 2.24%
Portugal 0.12% 0.56% 1.12% 1.56% 1.80% 2.28% 2.83% 2.80% 2.99% 3.41% 3.74% 3.90%
Germany (0.64%) (0.66%) (0.66%) (0.64%) (0.57%) (0.54%) (0.46%) (0.38%) (0.26%) (0.13%) (0.08%) 0.12% 0.38%
United Kingdom 0.14% 0.09% 0.16% 0.27% 0.35% 0.50% 0.65% 0.77% 0.77% 0.86% 1.40% 1.56% 1.69%
Japan (0.33%) (0.30%) (0.29%) (0.31%) (0.31%) (0.32%) (0.32%) (0.30%) (0.28%) (0.22%) (0.10%) 0.07% 0.13%
China 2.36% 2.53% 2.53% 2.66% 2.66% 2.84% 2.83% 3.54%
Russia 9.84% 9.26% 9.09% 8.63% 8.53% 8.43% 8.30% 8.40%
India 6.98% 7.03% 7.13% 7.27% 7.39% 7.53% 7.53% 7.54% 7.59% 7.45%
Brazil 12.78% 12.43% 12.27% 12.13% 12.05% 12.07%
Mexico 4.32% 4.98% 5.22% 5.29% 5.45% 5.60% 5.74% 5.80% 5.89% 6.19% 6.42% 6.48%
Canada 0.51% 0.52% 0.50% 0.54% 0.57% 0.67% 0.76% 0.84% 0.94% 1.06% 1.71% 1.71%
United States 0.43% 0.58% 0.69% 1.00% 1.28% 1.47% 2.28%
CURRENCIES
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Yen strengthens in flight to safety, pound at a 30-year low
EUR/USD at 1.11, USD/JPY at 103
GBP at 30-year lows following Brexit vote
USD: The dollar was mixed against most major currencies in the
month due to the UK referendum. Traditional safe haven currencies
such as the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen performed well against
the dollar (gains of 1.80% and 6.80%), while the EUR/USD reaction
was more muted. The dollar gained just 0.23% versus the euro.
Yen: The yen was 6.80% stronger versus the dollar and 16.74%
versus the pound in the month due to its role as a safe haven during
times of financial stress. The yen strengthened despite the Bank of
Japan being the most accommodative central bank in the world and
despite $6.2tn worth of Japanese government bonds having negative
yields. The last time the BoJ announced additional easing the
USD/JPY was at 120, so more easing is expected at their July
meeting.
Pound: The pound was the biggest loser after the Brexit referendum,
hitting new 25-year lows after the vote. The pound had been
strengthening as momentum for the Remain camp was increasing, but
as the vote came in, the pound sold off and saw losses of 6.93% on
Friday, June 24 after the vote announcement and finished the month
down 8.09%.
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
1.05
1.07
1.09
1.11
1.13
1.15
1.17 EUR/USD USD/JPY
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20 GBP/USD
COMMODITIES
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Commodities rally as Gold and Natural Gas have a strong month
Gold higher with Brexit fears
Oil has traded in $45-50 range for two monthsOil: Oil finished the month 2.42% lower as post-Brexit global growth
concerns permeated markets and the dollar strengthened. The rig
count increased in three of the four June readings, showing that
production declines might soon come to a halt as rigs come back
online.
• Storage concerns continue to ease, as overall inventories
have shown withdrawals in six straight weeks. US production
continues to decrease and is down 1.1m/bpd from its
previous high.
Gold: Gold was one of the best performing assets in June, up 8.77%
with the financial market volatility and flight to safety trades. Gold
finished the month at $1,319, its highest level since March 2014.
Natural Gas: Warmer than average temperatures, a tropical storm in
the Southern US, and added demand from coal to gas switching all
served as bullish catalysts in the month and pushed natural gas up
22.70% in June.
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
9,000
9,200
9,400
Lower 48 Oil Production WTI
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400 Gold
VOLATILITY
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The VIX spiked on the Brexit announcement, but quickly receded to prior levels
VIX quickly recovered to pre-Brexit levelsVIX: The VIX was elevated for most of the month as investors awaited
the June 23 referendum and the volatility that surrounded the vote.
The surprise result, and subsequent selloff, caused the VIX to
increase to an intra-day high of 26.72 on June 27. The rally that
followed the sharp decrease led to declines in the VIX and it finished
the month at 15.63, 1.37 below its YTD average of 18.
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
VIX
EUROPE
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European equities experienced large losses after Brexit
United Kingdom: The UK referendum was a surprise to most
financial market participants, as final polls and betting odds favored
the ‘Remain’ vote. The reaction to the surprise announcement was
volatile, but the long-term effects of the vote are still unknown. Two
points of emphasis are listed below:
• Prime Minister: David Cameron resigned the day following
the vote, and the UK is set to have new elections in the fall
to elect a new Prime Minister.
• Article 50: This is the constitutional process that the UK will
go through to formally leave the EU. The Article 50 process
will officially begin when the new PM is elected and formally
notifies the EU of the exit. This will then begin a two-year
process of negotiating and finalizing terms of the exit.
European Union: The effect on the EU is still unknown, but EU
members have repeatedly assured the UK that future trade
negotiations will be difficult. Germany will most likely attempt to speed
up the process as Britain is Germany’s third largest trading partner
behind the US and France.
Europe underperformed the US due to Brexit uncertainty
German 10-Year now in negative territory
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102 S&P 500 Index Stoxx 600
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 German 10-Year
CHINA
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The yuan experienced its largest daily depreciation since August 2015 after Brexit news
Economic Data: Chinese economic data was mixed in the month.
PMIs remain weak and the Caixin PMI reading for June saw its third
straight decline. Retail sales continue to be strong at 10.0% growth
and industrial production has remained at 6.0%.
Yuan: The yuan quietly depreciated an additional 0.95% in the month
and experienced its largest one-day move since August 2015 on the
day of the referendum. The yuan has now weakened 3.01% from its
March YTD high, as China aims to make its exchange rate
mechanism more market driven.
Equities: Equity markets were essentially flat in June, with the
Shanghai Composite losing 0.76%. Equity volumes in May were down
by 75% YoY and have remained subdued as Chinese investors have
continued to focus on other asset classes, such
as commodities.
Equity markets have been quiet in Q2
The yuan slowly depreciated in June
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
3,500
3,700
3,900
4,100
4,300
4,500 Shanghai Composite Shenzen Composite
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7 USD/CNY
DISCLOSURES
The Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of
S&P 500 index options. You can not invest directly in an index.
The S&P 500 Total Return Index is the total return of the Standard & Poor’s composite index of 500 stocks, a widely recognized, unmanaged
index of common stock prices. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Shanghai Composite is a stock market index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. You
cannot invest directly in an index.
The Russell 2000 Index tracks the stocks of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index. It is considered the benchmark index of
the small-cap U.S. equity universe. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The STOXX 600 tracks 600 publicly-traded companies based in one of 18 EU countries. The index includes small cap, medium cap, and large
cap companies. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex (Germanstock index)) is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading
on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index.
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 19
DISCLOSURES
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, or Nikkei, is the leading index of Japanese stocks. It is a price-weighted index comprised of Japan’s top 225
blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the investment grade, fixed-
rate, taxable, corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Bloomberg US High Yield Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the non-
investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable, global corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Barclay's 1-3 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking short-term government securities with maturities between 1 and 2.99
years. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Barclay’s 7-10 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking medium-term government securities with maturities between 7 and
9.99 years. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The Barclay’s 20+ Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking long-term government securities with maturities greater than 20 years.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 20
DISCLOSURES
JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is comprised of the spot prices of 10 emerging market currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. You
cannot invest directly in an index.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified commodity price index designed to allow investors to track commodity futures
through a single, simple measure. The index is designed to minimize concentration in any one commodity or sector.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure emerging markets equity
performance. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The opinions expressed are as of the date written and may change as subsequent conditions vary. This paper is not intended to be relied upon
as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any
investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole
discretion of the reader.
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 21
Contact Us:
865.243.8000 Local 877.819.2188 Toll Free
9202 S. Northshore Drive, Suite 300
Knoxville, TN 37922
www.backporchvista.com Copyright © 2016 by BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved.

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BPV Capital Market Update June 2016

  • 2. GLOBAL MARKET SUMMARY CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 2 Brexit vote in June created global uncertainty and market volatility United States Economic: Employment data for May was very poor, while retail sales continue to rebound from a slow start to the year. Business Cycle: Late-cycle dynamics are taking shape and the domestic economy looks poised for an extended late cycle. Equities US Equities overcame a post-Brexit decline of over 4.5% to finish the month 0.26% higher. Fixed Income Interest rates across the curve were much lower after the Brexit vote pushed global yields lower due to global economic uncertainty. German Bund interest rates are now negative out to 15 years. Currencies The pound was the most directly impacted currency following the Brexit vote, hitting new 30-year lows against the dollar and finishing the month at 1.33. The yen’s role as a safe haven currency caused it to strengthen to 103. Volatility The VIX quickly fell from a post-Brexit jump and finished the month near its YTD average. Commodities Gold rallied following the Brexit vote and finished the month as one of the best performing asset classes. Oil was lower with the added uncertainty. Europe The UK referendum dominated headlines and financial market movements in the month and caused European equities to underperform domestic markets. China China used the Brexit volatility to weaken the yuan again this month, which is now 3.01% weaker than its YTD high in March. June 2016
  • 3. CHART OF THE MONTH CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 3 After many months of speculation it finally happened. The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Up until the very end, most market participants believed that the status quo would prevail and the UK would choose to remain in the EU despite polls showing that it was a tossup. The surprising victory from the “leave” voters wreaked havoc on markets during the two days following the Brexit. Stock markets worldwide sold off, bonds rallied, the pound weakened significantly and gold rallied as the demand for safe haven assets increased. Almost as soon as it had begun, the fear that caused markets to sell off seemed to disappear. Over the last 3 days of the month, US equities rallied 4.95%, European equites rallied 6.20%, and the FTSE 100 rallied almost 9% and completely regained all of the losses caused by the Brexit vote. The reason for the sharp rebound isn’t extremely clear, but it seems like markets aren’t too concerned because there will be no immediate changes. The UK has to elect a new Prime Minister this fall, and then they will begin the lengthy 2 year process of negotiating their exit from the EU. While stock markets recovered, the same can’t be said for fixed income and foreign exchange markets. The Brexit resulted in a 11% loss for the Sterling during the two days after the vote, and although it has slightly recovered it is still significantly weaker than it was pre- Brexit. Global bond markets seem to be convinced that the UK’s decision is just one more factor to cause global growth to be stuck in a low gear with very accommodative central banks. Global bond yields fell following the Brexit and continued to fall through month end with German yields reaching negative territory all the way out to 15 years and UK yields hitting new lows. If one thing is certain going forward, it is that there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next several months. No one knows how clean the break-up between the UK and the EU will be, many other European elections take place in the coming months, and the US elects a new president in November. Global growth has struggled to pick up in recent Brexit vote has major impact on the Sterling 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 GBP/USD
  • 4. EQUITY PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 4 Data as of June 30, 2016 PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR S&P 500 2,098.86 0.26% 2.46% 3.84% 3.98% Consumer Discretionary 620.41 (1.18%) (0.91%) 0.68% 3.78% Consumer Staples 564.99 5.18% 4.63% 10.46% 18.66% Energy 512.39 3.28% 11.62% 16.10% (3.92%) Financials 308.39 (3.21%) 2.12% (3.05%) (4.21%) Healthcare 829.45 1.02% 6.27% 0.42% (2.02%) Industrials 487.51 0.99% 1.40% 6.46% 7.01% Information Technology 713.04 (2.76%) (2.84%) (0.32%) 4.79% Materials 290.62 (0.89%) 3.71% 7.46% (2.04%) Telecommunications 182.64 9.34% 7.06% 24.85% 25.14% Utilities 266.70 7.81% 6.79% 23.41% 31.47% Russell 2000 1,151.92 (0.06%) 3.79% 2.21% (6.74%) Europe (Stoxx 600) 329.88 (4.77%) (0.39%) (7.34%) (10.36%) Germany (DAX) 9,680.09 (5.68%) (2.86%) (9.89%) (11.56%) China (Shanghai Composite) 2,929.61 1.14% (1.64%) (16.50%) (30.18%) Japan (Nikkei) 15,575.92 (9.52%) (6.95%) (17.38%) (21.59%)
  • 5. FIXED INCOME PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 5 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR Barclay's US Treasury 1-3 YR 0.60% 0.53% 1.44% 1.41% Barclay's US Treasury 7-10 YR 2.93% 2.76% 7.56% 9.98% Barclay's US Treasury 20+ YR 6.42% 6.76% 15.83% 22.22% BofAML 1-3YR Agency and Treasury 0.59% 0.52% 1.42% 1.40% Bloomberg Corporate Bond Index 2.25% 3.54% 7.61% 7.70% Bloomberg High Yield Bond Index 1.13% 5.69% 9.58% 2.39% YIELD 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR US 2 YR 0.58% 0.88% 0.72% 1.05% 0.64% US 5 YR 1.00% 1.37% 1.20% 1.76% 1.65% US 10 YR 1.47% 1.85% 1.77% 2.27% 2.35% US 30 YR 2.28% 2.65% 2.61% 3.02% 3.12% 5 YR Breakeven 1.40% 1.49% 1.51% 1.28% 1.67% 10 YR Breakeven 1.44% 1.58% 1.63% 1.58% 1.89% Germany (0.13%) 0.14% 0.15% 0.63% 0.76% France 0.18% 0.48% 0.49% 0.99% 1.19% Italy 1.26% 1.35% 1.22% 1.59% 2.33% Spain 1.16% 1.47% 1.43% 1.77% 2.30% UK 0.87% 1.43% 1.42% 1.96% 2.02% Japan (0.22%) (0.12%) (0.04%) 0.26% 0.46% Data as of June 30, 2016
  • 6. CURRENCIES PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 6 Data as of June 30, 2016 PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR USD/JPY 103.20 (6.80%) (8.32%) (14.39%) (15.76%) EUR/USD 1.11 (0.23%) (2.41%) 2.30% (0.37%) GBP/USD 1.33 (8.09%) (7.31%) (9.73%) (15.28%) USD/CHF 0.98 (1.80%) 1.48% (2.54%) 4.33% USD/CAD 1.29 (1.29%) (0.62%) (6.72%) 3.44% USD/SEK 8.46 1.52% 4.21% 0.00% 2.08% AUD/USD 0.75 3.00% (2.69%) 2.03% (3.32%) DXY Index 96.14 0.26% 1.65% (2.57%) 0.69% JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.63 3.07% 0.29% 4.59% (7.10%)
  • 7. COMMODITIES PERFORMANCE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 7 PRICE 1 MONTH QTD YTD 1 YEAR Bloomberg Commodity Index 88.84 4.11% 12.71% 14.04% (13.48%) Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 2.92 22.70% 32.19% 16.63% (6.97%) WTI USD/bbl. 48.33 (2.42%) 16.85% 15.73% (22.14%) Brent USD/bbl. 49.71 (1.15%) 19.09% 17.24% (27.21%) WTI-Brent USD/bbl. (1.35) (0.59) (1.26) (0.46) (4.12) Gasoline USd/gal. 150.13 (6.89%) 4.16% 0.35% (21.48%) Heating Oil USd/gal. 148.87 (1.14%) 19.91% 18.11% (24.92%) Copper USd/lb. 219.55 4.42% (0.07%) 4.67% (17.03%) Aluminum USD/MT 1,649.00 5.98% 8.49% 11.95% (2.48%) Zinc USD/MT 2,102.00 9.41% 15.61% 32.81% 4.07% Nickel USD/MT 9,410.00 11.84% 10.73% 10.11% (22.33%) Gold USD/t oz. 1,321.90 8.77% 7.23% 23.01% 12.76% Silver USD/t oz. 18.71 17.00% 21.23% 34.90% 18.93% Platinum USD/t oz. 1,024.40 4.59% 4.99% 15.94% (5.05%) Palladium USD/t oz. 599.72 9.62% 6.32% 10.96% (11.22%) Corn USd/bu. 365.50 (10.14%) 1.39% (0.95%) (15.39%) Soybean USd/bu. 1,153.25 9.24% 24.71% 32.14% 19.01% Live Cattle USd/lb. 114.83 (2.73%) (4.45%) (7.19%) (19.42%) Cocoa USD/MT 2,963.00 (2.08%) 0.61% (4.91%) (7.92%) Coffee USd/lb. 145.65 17.98% 10.97% 12.34% 0.28% Lean Hog USd/lb. 83.28 3.00% 3.58% 7.94% 8.47% Sugar USd/lb. 20.33 15.12% 30.24% 40.69% 45.32% Wheat USd/bu. 445.50 (6.31%) (9.13%) (7.57%) (29.43%) Cotton USd/lb. 64.17 0.98% 11.08% (0.20%) (3.05%) Data as of June 30, 2016
  • 8. MACROECONOMIC SUMMARY United States • GDP: First quarter GDP was again revised higher, increasing to 1.1% from 0.8%. Initial estimates for second quarter GDP are showing a significant rebound in activity and data has been positive. The first Q2 GDP release is July 29. • Employment: The May employment report was much worse than expectations and showed the economy only added 38k jobs in the month. One caveat to the poor headline number is that it included roughly 35k Verizon Wireless employees that were striking in the month who have now returned back to work. However when these workers are added back into the total, the report is still very poor at only 73k jobs added. • The unemployment rate decreased to 4.7% in the month, but this was largely due to a decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%. • Consumer: The consumer sector rebounded after a rough start to the year and retail sales again beat expectations, increasing by 0.5% in May on top of a very strong April reading. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 8 Economic data in the US is beginning to improve Employment data was a break from recent positive trend Retail sales continue to improve -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Retail Sales MoM - 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 61.8 62.0 62.2 62.4 62.6 62.8 63.0 63.2 63.4 63.6 Labor Force Participation Nonfarm Payrolls
  • 9. BUSINESS CYCLE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 9 Currently in beginning stages of prolonged late cycle Operating margins continue to decline Lack of inflation could prolong late cycle Indicators of the Late Cycle • Above trend rates of inflation • GDP and Industrial Production begin to hit slower growth rates • Monetary policy tightens • Profit margins deteriorate • Inventories tend to build unexpectedly as sales decline • During the late cycle equities historically average annual returns of 5%, slowing down from 15% a year in the mid-cycle. Late Cycle Transition: We believe that the US economy is currently at the beginning of the late stage of the business cycle. The economy is showing signs of moderating, with profit margins starting to decline, lackluster GDP growth, and poor manufacturing data. While inflation is currently increasing and the Fed is at the beginning of a tightening cycle, both are occurring at a much slower pace than usual. • The late cycle typically lasts roughly one year in length before transitioning to a recession, but the lack of inflation and monetary tightening suggests the business cycle, specifically the late cycle, could last longer than its historical average. 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% Operating Margin -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Headline CPI
  • 10. EQUITIES CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 10 Equities flat after Brexit volatility Valuations still high relative to historical levels Utilities rallied with uncertainty, financials sold offBrexit Reaction: The S&P 500 finished the month 0.26% higher despite a decline of 5.32% the two-days following the UK referendum. This loss was quickly offset by a rally in equities the following four days to close the month. Utilities vs Banks: The risk-off environment that followed the Brexit scare led utilities to outperform versus other sectors and utilities actually posted gains during the short drawdown. The flight to safety pushed fixed income yields so low that investors resumed their search for yield and flowed into utilities. Utilities ended up 7.81% higher while financials lost 3.21%. Banks react to interest rates in the opposite way, and the sector saw very large declines as interest rates came down and expectations for the second Fed rate hike dramatically declined. Also contributing to the drawdown in banks were concerns about the financial stability in London and how that affects the very large European banks that are headquartered there. Valuations: Unlike the February drawdown where valuations decreased and provided an attractive entry point into equities, valuations remained high after the Brexit and will remain in focus as Q2 earnings season begins in July. 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 105.0 106.0 107.0 108.0 109.0 110.0 111.0 112.0 Trailing 12M EPS Trailing P/E 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 S&P 500 Index Utilities Financials
  • 11. FIXED INCOME CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 11 Long-term interest rates decrease as investors flocked to safe havens The yield curve decreased across the board in JuneYield Curve: Interest rates across the curve saw dramatic decreases after the referendum. Unlike equities, they did not recover much of their decline in the last week of the month. Investors flocked to safe haven assets, which drove demand for government bonds worldwide. The US has higher interest rates than most developed economies, making it more attractive relative to the rest of the world. This demand is what drove interest rates so much lower in the month. Federal Reserve: Fed fund futures are not showing a rate increase until 2018 following the Brexit vote. Prior to the vote markets predicted an increase as early as July, but with central banks around the world offering additional easing to cure financial market volatility, expectations for another Fed rate hike have been taken off the table for now. Interest Rate Changes 1M 2YR 5YR 10YR 30YR 5/31/16 0.18% 0.88% 1.37% 1.85% 2.65% 6/30/16 0.17% 0.58% 1.00% 1.47% 2.28% Change (0.01%) (0.30%) (0.37%) (0.38%) (0.36%) 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 5/31/2016 6/30/2016
  • 12. FIXED INCOME CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 12 High yield spreads increased in risk-off environment High yield spreads are now 6.31% High Yield: High yield spreads increased to 6.31% following the referendum as investors focused on high quality assets. • While the spread seems low compared to highs seen in the first quarter of 2016, it is still 0.91% above the five-year average of 5.40% and remains elevated due to the low oil price environment. Breakevens: 10-year inflation expectations decreased to 1.43%, with most of the loss coming after the referendum. Investors expect central banks to extend even more monetary accommodation in the near future to compensate for the added financial market volatility surrounding the Brexit. Mortgage Backed Securities: Mortgage Backed Securities underperformed treasuries during the month as the fall in interest rates caused MBS spreads to widen. However, despite the underperformance, the Barclays U.S. MBS index was still up 0.81% during the month due to the strong demand for safe haven assets. 1.00% 1.10% 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% 1.50% 1.60% 1.70% 1.80% 1.90% 2.00% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% High Yield Spread 10 YR Breakeven
  • 13. FIXED INCOME CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 13 German Bund 15-year interest rate now in negative territory Maturity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30 Switzerland (1.15%) (1.19%) (1.17%) (1.10%) (1.05%) (0.96%) (0.89%) (0.76%) (0.67%) (0.61%) (0.41%) (0.26%) (0.11%) Netherlands (0.61%) (0.60%) (0.58%) (0.56%) (0.42%) (0.40%) (0.28%) (0.17%) (0.04%) 0.08% 0.26% 0.32% 0.51% Finland (0.61%) (0.58%) (0.57%) (0.47%) (0.42%) (0.30%) (0.23%) (0.10%) (0.02%) 0.14% 0.37% 0.54% Sweden (0.63%) (0.50%) (0.29%) (0.14%) 0.03% 0.25% 0.77% 1.12% France (0.55%) (0.55%) (0.52%) (0.45%) (0.36%) (0.29%) (0.20%) (0.09%) 0.05% 0.18% 0.49% 0.73% 0.91% Greece 7.21% 8.92% 8.18% 7.96% 7.83% Italy (0.21%) (0.11%) (0.04%) 0.07% 0.29% 0.49% 0.67% 0.90% 1.09% 1.26% 1.52% 1.92% 2.27% Spain (0.24%) (0.20%) (0.12%) 0.01% 0.18% 0.27% 0.49% 0.84% 0.97% 1.16% 1.48% 1.88% 2.24% Portugal 0.12% 0.56% 1.12% 1.56% 1.80% 2.28% 2.83% 2.80% 2.99% 3.41% 3.74% 3.90% Germany (0.64%) (0.66%) (0.66%) (0.64%) (0.57%) (0.54%) (0.46%) (0.38%) (0.26%) (0.13%) (0.08%) 0.12% 0.38% United Kingdom 0.14% 0.09% 0.16% 0.27% 0.35% 0.50% 0.65% 0.77% 0.77% 0.86% 1.40% 1.56% 1.69% Japan (0.33%) (0.30%) (0.29%) (0.31%) (0.31%) (0.32%) (0.32%) (0.30%) (0.28%) (0.22%) (0.10%) 0.07% 0.13% China 2.36% 2.53% 2.53% 2.66% 2.66% 2.84% 2.83% 3.54% Russia 9.84% 9.26% 9.09% 8.63% 8.53% 8.43% 8.30% 8.40% India 6.98% 7.03% 7.13% 7.27% 7.39% 7.53% 7.53% 7.54% 7.59% 7.45% Brazil 12.78% 12.43% 12.27% 12.13% 12.05% 12.07% Mexico 4.32% 4.98% 5.22% 5.29% 5.45% 5.60% 5.74% 5.80% 5.89% 6.19% 6.42% 6.48% Canada 0.51% 0.52% 0.50% 0.54% 0.57% 0.67% 0.76% 0.84% 0.94% 1.06% 1.71% 1.71% United States 0.43% 0.58% 0.69% 1.00% 1.28% 1.47% 2.28%
  • 14. CURRENCIES CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 14 Yen strengthens in flight to safety, pound at a 30-year low EUR/USD at 1.11, USD/JPY at 103 GBP at 30-year lows following Brexit vote USD: The dollar was mixed against most major currencies in the month due to the UK referendum. Traditional safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen performed well against the dollar (gains of 1.80% and 6.80%), while the EUR/USD reaction was more muted. The dollar gained just 0.23% versus the euro. Yen: The yen was 6.80% stronger versus the dollar and 16.74% versus the pound in the month due to its role as a safe haven during times of financial stress. The yen strengthened despite the Bank of Japan being the most accommodative central bank in the world and despite $6.2tn worth of Japanese government bonds having negative yields. The last time the BoJ announced additional easing the USD/JPY was at 120, so more easing is expected at their July meeting. Pound: The pound was the biggest loser after the Brexit referendum, hitting new 25-year lows after the vote. The pound had been strengthening as momentum for the Remain camp was increasing, but as the vote came in, the pound sold off and saw losses of 6.93% on Friday, June 24 after the vote announcement and finished the month down 8.09%. 100.00 105.00 110.00 115.00 120.00 125.00 130.00 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 EUR/USD USD/JPY 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 GBP/USD
  • 15. COMMODITIES CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 15 Commodities rally as Gold and Natural Gas have a strong month Gold higher with Brexit fears Oil has traded in $45-50 range for two monthsOil: Oil finished the month 2.42% lower as post-Brexit global growth concerns permeated markets and the dollar strengthened. The rig count increased in three of the four June readings, showing that production declines might soon come to a halt as rigs come back online. • Storage concerns continue to ease, as overall inventories have shown withdrawals in six straight weeks. US production continues to decrease and is down 1.1m/bpd from its previous high. Gold: Gold was one of the best performing assets in June, up 8.77% with the financial market volatility and flight to safety trades. Gold finished the month at $1,319, its highest level since March 2014. Natural Gas: Warmer than average temperatures, a tropical storm in the Southern US, and added demand from coal to gas switching all served as bullish catalysts in the month and pushed natural gas up 22.70% in June. 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 8,000 8,200 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,200 9,400 Lower 48 Oil Production WTI 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 Gold
  • 16. VOLATILITY CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 16 The VIX spiked on the Brexit announcement, but quickly receded to prior levels VIX quickly recovered to pre-Brexit levelsVIX: The VIX was elevated for most of the month as investors awaited the June 23 referendum and the volatility that surrounded the vote. The surprise result, and subsequent selloff, caused the VIX to increase to an intra-day high of 26.72 on June 27. The rally that followed the sharp decrease led to declines in the VIX and it finished the month at 15.63, 1.37 below its YTD average of 18. 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 VIX
  • 17. EUROPE CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 17 European equities experienced large losses after Brexit United Kingdom: The UK referendum was a surprise to most financial market participants, as final polls and betting odds favored the ‘Remain’ vote. The reaction to the surprise announcement was volatile, but the long-term effects of the vote are still unknown. Two points of emphasis are listed below: • Prime Minister: David Cameron resigned the day following the vote, and the UK is set to have new elections in the fall to elect a new Prime Minister. • Article 50: This is the constitutional process that the UK will go through to formally leave the EU. The Article 50 process will officially begin when the new PM is elected and formally notifies the EU of the exit. This will then begin a two-year process of negotiating and finalizing terms of the exit. European Union: The effect on the EU is still unknown, but EU members have repeatedly assured the UK that future trade negotiations will be difficult. Germany will most likely attempt to speed up the process as Britain is Germany’s third largest trading partner behind the US and France. Europe underperformed the US due to Brexit uncertainty German 10-Year now in negative territory 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 S&P 500 Index Stoxx 600 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 German 10-Year
  • 18. CHINA CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 18 The yuan experienced its largest daily depreciation since August 2015 after Brexit news Economic Data: Chinese economic data was mixed in the month. PMIs remain weak and the Caixin PMI reading for June saw its third straight decline. Retail sales continue to be strong at 10.0% growth and industrial production has remained at 6.0%. Yuan: The yuan quietly depreciated an additional 0.95% in the month and experienced its largest one-day move since August 2015 on the day of the referendum. The yuan has now weakened 3.01% from its March YTD high, as China aims to make its exchange rate mechanism more market driven. Equities: Equity markets were essentially flat in June, with the Shanghai Composite losing 0.76%. Equity volumes in May were down by 75% YoY and have remained subdued as Chinese investors have continued to focus on other asset classes, such as commodities. Equity markets have been quiet in Q2 The yuan slowly depreciated in June 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 3,300 3,500 3,700 3,900 4,100 4,300 4,500 Shanghai Composite Shenzen Composite 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 USD/CNY
  • 19. DISCLOSURES The Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. You can not invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index is the total return of the Standard & Poor’s composite index of 500 stocks, a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Shanghai Composite is a stock market index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the stocks of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index. It is considered the benchmark index of the small-cap U.S. equity universe. You cannot invest directly in an index. The STOXX 600 tracks 600 publicly-traded companies based in one of 18 EU countries. The index includes small cap, medium cap, and large cap companies. You cannot invest directly in an index. The DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex (Germanstock index)) is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 19
  • 20. DISCLOSURES The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, or Nikkei, is the leading index of Japanese stocks. It is a price-weighted index comprised of Japan’s top 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the investment grade, fixed- rate, taxable, corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Bloomberg US High Yield Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the non- investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable, global corporate bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Barclay's 1-3 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking short-term government securities with maturities between 1 and 2.99 years. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Barclay’s 7-10 Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking medium-term government securities with maturities between 7 and 9.99 years. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Barclay’s 20+ Year Treasury Index is an unmanaged index tracking long-term government securities with maturities greater than 20 years. You cannot invest directly in an index. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 20
  • 21. DISCLOSURES JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is comprised of the spot prices of 10 emerging market currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. You cannot invest directly in an index. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified commodity price index designed to allow investors to track commodity futures through a single, simple measure. The index is designed to minimize concentration in any one commodity or sector. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure emerging markets equity performance. You cannot invest directly in an index. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and may change as subsequent conditions vary. This paper is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION | © 2016 BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved. Institutional only. V201606 21
  • 22. Contact Us: 865.243.8000 Local 877.819.2188 Toll Free 9202 S. Northshore Drive, Suite 300 Knoxville, TN 37922 www.backporchvista.com Copyright © 2016 by BPV Capital Management. All rights reserved.

Editor's Notes

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