Management of grazing systems to 2030 - Melissa Rebbeck

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Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries

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Management of grazing systems to 2030 Melissa Rebbeck - SARDI – Climate Applications Acknowledge – Russell Pattinson, Phil Graham, Andrew Moore, Peter Hayman

Adaptation project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What we did

Role of livestock producers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Impact of climate projections on key indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Lucindale Median Pasture Growth Rate – Impacts Historical vs Future (A2) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1/01/2009 15/01/2009 29/01/2009 12/02/2009 26/02/2009 12/03/2009 26/03/2009 9/04/2009 23/04/2009 7/05/2009 21/05/2009 4/06/2009 18/06/2009 2/07/2009 16/07/2009 30/07/2009 13/08/2009 27/08/2009 10/09/2009 24/09/2009 8/10/2009 22/10/2009 5/11/2009 19/11/2009 3/12/2009 17/12/2009 Kg DM/ha/d Base CCSM 3 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1

Gross Margins Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

Supplementary Feed Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time - Lucindale Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

Ground Cover Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

March Lambing June Lambing July Lambing 5.5/ha 7/ha 8.5/ha 8.5/ha Sub Clover Phalaris

Other approaches ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Comparing enterprises – dry and wet years - 2030 ,[object Object],[object Object]

Sensitivity approach ,[object Object],[object Object],Warmer Drier 1971-2000 Warmer Drier 1971-2000

Spatial approach – dry and wet years – 2030 ,[object Object],[object Object],114 5.5 +6% 0% Wet (UK) -17 2.5 +8% -13% Dry (G) Grenfell 240 5.8 +6% -2% Wet (UK) 63 3.6 +10% -17% Dry (G) Yass Profit $/ha Stocking rate Temperature Rainfall

Impacts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What we learned

What livestock producers learned ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusions discussed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Further recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Long term average rainfall - Lucindale Historical vs Future (2030 A2)

Sale weight wether lambs Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

Emissions Scenarios Projections – A2 Scenario focus Range of outputs from 23 GCM’s

Gross Margins stocking rate x time of lambing CCSM 3.0 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1 70-00 01-08 Base A2 Scenarios by 2030 1970-2000 2001-2008 Echam GFDL CCSM Hadgem Stocking Rate 5.5, 7, 8.5 cont. March, June and July lamb Why we chose 1995 – 2005 This is Lucindale Merino enterprise

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Management of grazing systems to 2030 - Melissa Rebbeck

1. Management of grazing systems to 2030 Melissa Rebbeck - SARDI – Climate Applications Acknowledge – Russell Pattinson, Phil Graham, Andrew Moore, Peter Hayman

7. Lucindale Median Pasture Growth Rate – Impacts Historical vs Future (A2) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1/01/2009 15/01/2009 29/01/2009 12/02/2009 26/02/2009 12/03/2009 26/03/2009 9/04/2009 23/04/2009 7/05/2009 21/05/2009 4/06/2009 18/06/2009 2/07/2009 16/07/2009 30/07/2009 13/08/2009 27/08/2009 10/09/2009 24/09/2009 8/10/2009 22/10/2009 5/11/2009 19/11/2009 3/12/2009 17/12/2009 Kg DM/ha/d Base CCSM 3 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1

8. Gross Margins Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

9. Supplementary Feed Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time - Lucindale Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

10. Ground Cover Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

11. March Lambing June Lambing July Lambing 5.5/ha 7/ha 8.5/ha 8.5/ha Sub Clover Phalaris

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24. Long term average rainfall - Lucindale Historical vs Future (2030 A2)

25. Sale weight wether lambs Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

26. Emissions Scenarios Projections – A2 Scenario focus Range of outputs from 23 GCM’s

27.

28. Gross Margins stocking rate x time of lambing CCSM 3.0 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1 70-00 01-08 Base A2 Scenarios by 2030 1970-2000 2001-2008 Echam GFDL CCSM Hadgem Stocking Rate 5.5, 7, 8.5 cont. March, June and July lamb Why we chose 1995 – 2005 This is Lucindale Merino enterprise

Management of grazing systems to 2030 - Melissa Rebbeck

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