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Resilient agricultural households through adaptation of climate smart agriculture practices- By Dr Dakshina Murthy Kadiyala, Innovation Systems for the Drylands, ICRISAT

  1. RESILIENT AGRICULTURAL HOUSEHOLDS THROUGH ADAPTATION OF CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE PRACTICES Dakshina Murthy Kadiyala Innovation Systems for the Drylands
  2. Methodology - Structural Approach Shahnila et al., 2016 Physiological Agronomic Crop Simulation models (process based) Economic models (IAT, TOAMD) Climate Stresses GCMs Technology adoption Yields, farm income, cash flows
  3. Climate Analysis Number of Grids : 350 Base line period : 1980-2009 Mid- century period : 2040-2069 RCP : 8.5 Number of GCMs : 29 Indicator Weight (%) Annual Maximum Temperature 2 Annual Minimum Temperature 4 Heat wave occurrences (days) 3 Cold wave occurrences (days) 3 Severe Heat wave occurrences (days) 5 Severe Cold wave occurrences (days) 2 CV in June rainfall(%) 5 CV in July rainfall(%) 12 Annual Precipitation 1 Monsoon rainfall 6 CV Monsoon rainfall(%) 12 Very heavy rainfall (days) 5 Dry days 5 More than 14 days of dry in monsoon 10 Wet days 5 More than 14 days of dry in monsoon 5 Number of annual rainy days 5 95th percentile rainfall 5 Hot day frequency 5 Construction of climate exposure index
  4. Climate Analysis-Climate Exposure Index Mandal wise climate exposure index for Baseline & Mid-century period (2040-69)under RCP 8.5 Hot -dry Baseline (1980-2009)
  5. Mandal wise climate exposure index for baseline climate along with major crop type mapping and command areas (2015-16) Climate Analysis-Climate Exposure Index
  6. Farm size category Extreme High Moderate Resilient Grand Total Labour 1575 295 32 1 1903 Large (> 7.5 ac) 9 39 172 353 573 Medium (2.6 -7.5 ac) 113 620 1580 835 3148 Small (< 2.5 ac) 303 1270 1025 178 2776 Grand Total 2000 2224 2809 1367 8400 Household Vulnerability Analysis
  7. Adaptation Interventions Agronomic Measures- promotion of pulses & millets, farming systems approach, energy smart irrigation practices, nutriment smart practices Soil and Water Conservation- Farm ponds with micro irrigation, bore well recharge structures etc., Integrated Farming Systems- back yard poultry, small ruminants, fodder crops/ fodder tress on bunds, vermicomposting etc., 1 Value addition- Millet & pulses processing units (Dall Mills) Community Interventions- Custom hiring centers, climate information centers Capacity Building-household mentoring, Market linkages , climate smart practices, Business plan and sustainability strategy 2 3 4 5 6
  8. Intelligent Agricultural Systems Advisory Tool (ISAT) - Taking small-holder farming to next level Maharashtra Farmers fear loss of kharif harvest, blame Met Department (http://www.huffingtonpost.in/village- square/maharashtra-farmers-fear-loss-of-kharif- harvest-blame-met-depar_a_23041487/) • Rainfall forecast from the met services not specific to their location • Contingency planning from the Dept. of Agriculture that rarely considers market information • Crop management recommendations that are mostly generalized for all soils and seasons
  9. Rainfall probability- Anantapur
  10. Dry spells >300 mm years
  11. Dry spells <300 mm years
  12. Decision tree – Rainfed groundnut system, Anantapur Timeline Conditions Decision April&May Kharif Avg Rain=352 mm SCF/ LRF El Nino Limited GN with high proportion of drought tolerant crops Prepare for planting a mix of crops Plant GN with PP as intercrop B N Message • Plant early maturing GN at the earliest opportunity • Consider using a mix of crops • Plant GN at the earliest opportunity after 2nd week of June • Plant early maturing GN at the earliest opportunity • Consider allocating about 25-50% of the land to drought tolerant crops <350mm
  13. June Avg Rain=50 mm P for>20 mm=0.73 Last week Rain Timeline Conditions Message Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Next week forecast 2week outlook Last week Rain Next week forecast Last week Rain Next week forecast Last week Rain Next week forecast Next week forecast Next week forecast Next week forecast Next week forecast 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook Wait Prepare land Plant GN Wait Plant GN Wait Plant GN Wait Plant GN Wait Prepare the land or Plant GN Prepare land Get ready for planting Prepare the land Wait Prepare the land AN AN AN AN AN AN AN AN Last week Rain Next week forecast Last week Rain Last week Rain Next week forecast Next week forecast
  14. Timeline Conditions Message Wait Last week Rain Week 1 Next week forecast 2week outlookNext week forecast 2week outlook 2week outlook 2week outlook Prepare the land Wait Prepare the land BN AN BN AN
  15. Intelligent Agricultural Systems Advisory Tool (ISAT)
  16. AgMIP Sentinel Sites Next steps • Use of big data analytics for identification of key farm decisions and drivers • Developing decision trees/decision making structures with appropriate triggers/ thresholds for several crops • Linking the program with an information dissemination system
  17. Thank You
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