CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021

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The Congressional Budget Office presented projections on the current economic outlook and federal deficits and debt for 2020-2021. CBO expects: - The unemployment rate to average 15% in Q2-Q3 2020, higher than the Great Depression. - By Q3 2020, there will be 28 million fewer employed and 9 million fewer in the labor force than previously projected. - Real GDP will decline sharply in Q2 but begin rising in Q3, though 2021 GDP will be over 6% lower than previously projected. - The 2020 federal deficit will be around $3.7 trillion (17.9% of GDP), the largest since 1945. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 108% of GDP

Government & Nonprofit

Congressional Budget Office
A Presentation to the House Budget Committee
April 28, 2020
Phillip L. Swagel, Director
CBO’s Current Economic Projections
and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits
and Debt for 2020 and 2021
For details, see Congressional Budget Office, "CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021,”
CBO Blog (April 24, 2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56335.

1
CBO
The unemployment rate is the number of jobless people who are available for and seeking work, expressed as a percentage of the labor force.
Unemployment Rate
CBO expects the
unemployment rate to
average 15 percent in the
second and third quarters
of 2020, higher than at any
point since the early
1930s.

2
CBO
The labor force is the number of people in the civilian noninstitutionalized population who are either working or seeking work.
Labor Force in the Third Quarter of 2020
By the third quarter of
this year, about 28 million
fewer people will be
employed and about
9 million fewer people
will be in the labor force
than CBO projected in
January.

3
CBO
GDP = gross domestic product; n.a. = not applicable.
a. Real values are nominal values that have been adjusted to remove the effects of changes in prices.
b. Data are shown on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis.
CBO’s Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021
2020 Annual
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021
Real GDP (Percentage change from
preceding quarter) a
-0.9b -11.8b 5.4c 2.5 n.a. b n.a. b
Real GDP (Percentage change,
annual rate) a
-3.5b -39.6b 23.5c 10.5 -5.6b 2.8b
GDP
(Trillions of dollars) 21.6b 19.1b 20.1c 20.7 20.4b 21.3b
Unemployment Rate
(Percent) 3.8c 14.0c 16.0c 11.7 11.4b 10.1b
Interest Rate on Three-Month
Treasury Bills (Percent) 1.1b 0.1b 0.1c 0.1 0.4b 0.1b
Interest Rate on Ten-Year
Treasury Notes (Percent) 1.4b 0.6b 0.7c 0.7 0.8b 0.7b
The nation’s output is
projected to decline
sharply in the second
quarter of this year and
to begin rising thereafter.

4
CBO
Real values are nominal values that have been adjusted to remove the eﬀects of changes in prices. GDP = gross domestic product.
Real GDP Relative to CBO’s January 2020 Projection
Output at the end of 2021
would be more than
6 percent lower than CBO
projected in January.

5
CBO
Budget Deficits
CBO projects that if
current laws generally did
not change, the federal
deficit would be roughly
$3.7 trillion in fiscal year
2020 and $2.1 trillion in
fiscal year 2021. At
17.9 percent of GDP, the
2020 deficit would be the
largest since 1945.

6
CBO
Federal Debt Held by the Public
CBO projects that federal
debt held by the public
would grow to 108 percent
of GDP by the end of fiscal
year 2021, up from 79
percent at the end of fiscal
year 2019—again, if
current laws generally did
not change. That
percentage in 2021 would
be the highest in U.S.
history.

7
CBO
CBO is working to inform the Congress about the
economic and budgetary consequences of the
coronavirus pandemic, providing analysis that supports
the Congress as it continues to respond to the crisis.
To find other work by CBO related to the pandemic,
see www.cbo.gov/topics/covid-19.

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