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The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides

Congressional Budget Office
Congressional Budget Office
Congressional Budget OfficeCongressional Budget Office

This presentation of the economic outlook highlights the key findings from CBO’s recent report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029.

The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides

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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
The Economic Outlook
for 2019 to 2029
in 21 Slides
February 2019
For more details, see Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.
Output
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
After growing by an
estimated 3.1 percent in
2018, real (inflation-
adjusted) gross domestic
product (GDP) is projected
to grow by 2.3 percent this
year and more slowly
thereafter.
The largest contributors to
the growth of real GDP in
2019 are consumer
spending, business
investment, and residential
investment.
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
In CBO’s baseline
projections, real GDP
grows at an average
annual rate of 1.9 percent
over the 2019–2023
period; there is a roughly
two-thirds chance that the
growth will be between
0.6 percent and
3.2 percent.
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
The growth of real GDP
exceeds the growth of
potential GDP this year,
but then it slows and
eventually stabilizes at the
growth rate of potential
(that is, maximum
sustainable) GDP near the
end of the projection
period.
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The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides

  • 1. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides February 2019 For more details, see Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.
  • 3. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. After growing by an estimated 3.1 percent in 2018, real (inflation- adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 2.3 percent this year and more slowly thereafter.
  • 4. The largest contributors to the growth of real GDP in 2019 are consumer spending, business investment, and residential investment.
  • 5. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. In CBO’s baseline projections, real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent over the 2019–2023 period; there is a roughly two-thirds chance that the growth will be between 0.6 percent and 3.2 percent.
  • 6. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. The growth of real GDP exceeds the growth of potential GDP this year, but then it slows and eventually stabilizes at the growth rate of potential (that is, maximum sustainable) GDP near the end of the projection period.
  • 7. This year's growth builds on last year's strong demand for goods and services, pushing GDP 0.8 percent above potential GDP this year. The difference between actual and potential GDP, known as the output gap, is projected to return to its historical average of roughly −0.5 percent in later years.
  • 8. In the coming decade, the growth of real potential GDP is projected to be faster than it has been since 2008 but slower than it was in previous periods.
  • 10. The heightened demand for goods and services this year increases the demand for labor, pushing employment further above its maximum sustainable amount, thereby increasing the employment gap. After this year, the gap shrinks and eventually reaches its long-term value.
  • 11. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. The unemployment rate falls further below CBO’s estimate of the natural rate this year, but then it rises as growth in the demand for labor slows. The unemployment rate reaches its historical relationship with the natural rate by the end of the projection period.
  • 12. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. CBO expects the demand for labor to keep the labor force participation rate above the agency’s estimate of the potential rate for the next few years.
  • 13. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. In CBO's projections, the growth in wages increases over the next two years. Growth is slower in later years, reflecting slower growth in the demand for labor.
  • 14. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Labor’s share of income rises after 2018 in CBO’s projections because wages and salaries are projected to grow more quickly than other kinds of income.
  • 16. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. PCE = personal consumption expenditures. Strong demand for goods, services, and labor pushes inflation slightly above the Federal Reserve’s objective of 2 percent over the next several years in CBO’s projections.
  • 17. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to continue to increase the federal funds rate through the end of 2019 in response to the widening output gap and mounting inflationary pressures.
  • 18. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. The increase in the federal funds rate and a rising term premium contribute to higher interest rates on Treasury securities.
  • 20. CBO’s forecasts for the next two years are broadly similar to those in the Blue Chip survey.
  • 21. CBO’s projections generally reflect slightly slower GDP growth and higher unemployment rates and federal funds interest rates than many of the projections made by Federal Reserve officials.
  • 22. About This Document These slides were prepared by Nabeel Alsalam, Kim Kowalewski, Casey Labrack, and Jeffrey Schafer. For more details about CBO’s economic projections as well as the agency’s most recent budget projections, see The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918. That report was the result of work by many analysts at CBO.