Congressional Budget Office

Presentation to the
Budget Conference Committee

Douglas W. Elmendorf
Director
November 13, 2013

Note: Data from 1929 onward reflect recent revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimates of gross domestic product
(GDP) in past years and CBO’s extrapolation of those revisions to projected future GDP. Except where noted, budget figures for
2013 reflect CBO’s May 2013 baseline projection.
Unemployment Rate
Percent

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Share of Population Age 16 and Older That Is Employed
Percent

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Short-Term and Long-Term Unemployment Rates
Percent

The long-term unemployment rate refers to workers who have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks; the short-term unemployment
rate refers to all other unemployed workers.

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Federal Budget Deficits or Surpluses

Percentage of GDP
4

Surpluses

Actual

4

Baseline Projection

0

0

-4

-4
Deficits

-8

-8

-12

-12
1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

The deficit figure for 2013 comes from the Final Monthly Treasury Statement released on October 30, 2013.

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2018

2023
Federal Debt Held by the Public Under CBO’s
Extended Baseline
Percentage of GDP

120

Actual

World War II

Projected

80
Great
Depression

40

0
1790

World War I

Civil War

1805

1820

1835

1850

1865

1880

1895

1910

1925

1940

1955

1970

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1985

2000

2015

2030
Federal Spending and Revenues Under CBO’s Baseline,
Compared with Past Averages
Percentage of GDP

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Categories of Noninterest Spending Apart from Social
Security, Medicare, and Defense
Percentage of GDP

Means-tested health care programs include Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health
insurance exchanges and related spending.

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Presentation to the Budget Conference Committee

  • 1.
    Congressional Budget Office Presentationto the Budget Conference Committee Douglas W. Elmendorf Director November 13, 2013 Note: Data from 1929 onward reflect recent revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) in past years and CBO’s extrapolation of those revisions to projected future GDP. Except where noted, budget figures for 2013 reflect CBO’s May 2013 baseline projection.
  • 2.
  • 3.
    Share of PopulationAge 16 and Older That Is Employed Percent CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
  • 4.
    Short-Term and Long-TermUnemployment Rates Percent The long-term unemployment rate refers to workers who have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks; the short-term unemployment rate refers to all other unemployed workers. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
  • 5.
    Federal Budget Deficitsor Surpluses Percentage of GDP 4 Surpluses Actual 4 Baseline Projection 0 0 -4 -4 Deficits -8 -8 -12 -12 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 The deficit figure for 2013 comes from the Final Monthly Treasury Statement released on October 30, 2013. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2018 2023
  • 6.
    Federal Debt Heldby the Public Under CBO’s Extended Baseline Percentage of GDP 120 Actual World War II Projected 80 Great Depression 40 0 1790 World War I Civil War 1805 1820 1835 1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 1985 2000 2015 2030
  • 7.
    Federal Spending andRevenues Under CBO’s Baseline, Compared with Past Averages Percentage of GDP CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
  • 8.
    Categories of NoninterestSpending Apart from Social Security, Medicare, and Defense Percentage of GDP Means-tested health care programs include Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges and related spending. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE