Whether you believe in anthropogenic climate change or not, there are far more than enough weather-related surprises to go around. And one of the best ways to prepare for them is to be aware of the full spectrum of possibilities using the tools already built for climate-change forecasting. Water-sector utilities should be especially alert to these needs, since water and wastewater are absolutely essential services -- and they're frequently located in places at the greatest risk from surprise weather outlier events.

1. DEALING WITH MOTHER NATURE'S
ATTITUDE PROBLEM
Brian Gongol
DJ Gongol & Associates, Inc.
April 7, 2021
Great Plains Waste Management Conference
Virtual Presentation

2. Q1: Is the climate changing?

3. Q2: Are people are causing global warming?

4. Some climate change appears clear

5. Humans are probably 100% responsible
for 50% of the observed changes

6. The other 50% may be out of our hands

7. BUT...it doesn't matter.
You don't have to believe
in man-made climate change
to do some smart planning
for climate and weather uncertainty

8. What does uncertainty look like?

9. Emergencies can happen anytime

10. Far-out influences: Sunspots and solar flares

11. Even more far-out: Meteor strikes

It happened in Manson, Iowa

74 million years ago

Creating a crater 23 miles across

And in Russia

In 2014

Causing 1,000 injuries

12. Even more far-out: Meteor strikes
556 recorded events between 1994 and 2013

13. Threats of everything from heat waves to ice ages

14. What else could happen?
❔

15. We used to worry about nuclear winter

16. Nuclear winter: Extinct? Volcanoes: Not.

17. The year without a summer (1816)
Miniature ice age (cyclical event)
+
Tambora volcano (freak event)
=
A year with no growing season

18. Icelandic volcano (2010)
Remember how to say Eyjafjallajökull?

19. Domestic volcanoes

Yellowstone

Pacific Northwest

California

Hawaii

20. And there's always El Nino

21. We face non-greenhouse-gas risks all the time
But for planning purposes,
let's start with the risks
for which we have
readily-available tools

22. EPA forecasts for central states

Wetter Dakotas (changing upstream conditions)

More frequent flooding

Deeper droughts

Lower soil moisture

Greater aquifer depletion

23. Maybe we haven't measured long enough

24. Local data only goes back about 150 years

25. Maybe measurements haven't been accurate

26. Maybe we're all wrong

27. Climate preparedness tools can
overlap with terrorism preparedness

28. Any good preparation results in some waste

29. Remember the ozone layer?

30. Prepare!
If you're not preparing for things
that don't end up happening,
you haven't prepared enough

31. How to accommodate uncertainty

32. Examine the full range of possible outcomes

33. Prepare for all extremes
Consider both
impact and probability

34. Too much precipitation?

35. Too little precipitation?

36. Wrong type of precipitation?

37. Too much heat?

38. Too little heat?

39. Heat or cold at the wrong times?

40. How do extremes affect major water uses?

41. Agriculture/irrigation

42. Power production

43. Reservoirs

44. Ethanol and biodiesel production

45. Industrial use

46. Residential use

47. Microclimate issues

48. "Global" warming is too much, too daunting

49. Think on a local scale

50. Is land use changing?

51. Do you have heat islands?

52. How much safety factor around cones of depression?

53. Where is the groundwater and where could it go?

54. Where is the surface water and where could it go?

55. Test some what-if scenarios
🤔

56. What if: More snowstorms?

57. What if: More ice storms?

58. What if: More intense spring storms?

59. What if: Freak storms park right over you?
12" of rain fell in 24 hours

60. What if: Summer drought is the new normal?

61. What if: Irrigation or crop patterns change?

62. What if: Fall lasts later in the year?

63. What if: More road salt gets into source water?

64. What if: Flood elevations have been under-estimated?

65. What if: Extreme rainfall becomes more common?

66. Special considerations in Nebraska

67. Republican River allocations

More than $3 million spent on the legal fight

Kansas won $5.5 million award

68. Recent history

2010: Major summer flooding

2011: Record-breaking Missouri River flooding

2012: Driest year in Nebraska history

2013: October tornadoes (EF-4 in Wayne)

2014: Bitter extended winter, Pilger tornado cluster

2015: All-time high pressure record set at Grand Island

2016: Tornadoes on Christmas Day

2017: Above-normal temps in 9 of 12 months

2018: April blizzards

2019: Bomb cyclone and months of catastrophic flooding

2020: Catastrophic eastern Nebraska/trans-Iowa derecho

69. Platte River flooding during 2013 drought

70. Missouri River extremes, navigation, and ecosystem

71. Shifting wind patterns and the Sand Hills

72. Downpours on flat lands

73. Other special regional considerations

74. Drought magnifies nitrate runoff

75. Dry land means shifting pipes and settlement

76. Harsh winter cycles challenge pipes

77. Long droughts expose shallow wells

78. Extraordinary flooding overtakes wells

79. Factors to consider
🗹

80. How robust is your system?
The Chumbawamba Effect:
If you get knocked down,
how soon can you get up again?

81. Have you considered all 81 possibilities?

82. Have you run any Monte Carlo simulations?

83. What about streaks of bad luck?

84. Have you considered "black swan" events?

85. Channel your inner Donald Rumsfeld

Consider known
unknowns

Expect unknown
unknowns

86. What tipping points would challenge your system?

87. Are you at the unstable top of a hill
or the stable bottom of the valley?

88. Costs of preparedness

89. Borrowing will never be cheaper

90. Will DC distribute more or less funding?

91. Are you charging appropriate user fees?
💵

92. Is there literally enough for a rainy day?

93. Or a droughty day?

94. Will taxes support your efforts?

95. Be broad about causes, specific on solutions
Don't let a political debate over climate change
stifle planning for inevitable uncertain events

96. You can't single-handedly fix climate change

97. But you might...

98. Ensure well security against future droughts

99. Stress-test access to remote sites

100. Upgrade distribution to handle harsh winters

101. Elevate critical infrastructure

102. Anticipate strain on rivers and aquifers

103. Build local capacity to fix and service without help

104. Plan for worst-case nitrate runoff scenarios

105. Design for resilience
Can equipment handle worst-case conditions?
Can repairs be performed in place?
Can a lone operator work in an emergency?

106. Simplify equipment/shorten supply chains

107. Don't try everything at once
There are enough scenarios and possibilities
to take them one per week

108. With or without global warming...
You don't have to believe
in man-made climate change
to make good use of the tools

109. EPA tools for climate change
Or just Mother Nature's attitude problem

110. Adaptation Tools for Public Officials

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/
adapt-tools.html

Lots of links all in one place

111. Adaptation Strategies Guide for Water Utilities

https://www.epa.gov/crwu/resilient-strategies-guide-water-
utilities#/

Long, but sections are devoted to individual regions

112. Flood resilience guidebook

https://www.epa.gov/waterutilityresponse

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-08/
documents/flood_resilience_guide.pdf

Probably good for every utility with a nearby river

113. Map of expected climate change effects

http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/
scenario.cfm

Interactive drill-down to your community

114. Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

https://www.epa.gov/waterriskassessment/conduct-
drinking-water-or-wastewater-utility-risk-assessment

"No VSAT Web User data is stored by or visible to EPA!"

115. A few words on decision-making frameworks

React to the most recent disaster

Rank preparations by expected value

Use the minimax approach

116. A few words on decision error

Blindness to anything that isn't recent

Blindness to anything that isn't nearby

Tornadoes, floods, drought, ice storms, power outages

Attention is not the same as probability

High-impact events are often infrequent

117. Questions?

Thank you for coming! 
Brian Gongol
DJ Gongol & Associates
515-223-4144

brian@djgongol.com

Twitter/Facebook/
LinkedIn/Instagram:
@djgongol

118. References and credits

Human impact on climate change:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/ipcc-climate-change-report-is-out-its-warmer-and-were-responsible/

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WG1AR5_Headlines.pdf

Tambora volcano:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/Newsletter/htm_format_articles/climate_corner/yearwithoutsummer_lf.htm

Ice Age/Chicago Tribune headline:

http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1979/01/14/page/4/article/were-slipping-into-an-ice-age/index.html

Asteroid map:

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=84763

Manson impact crater:

http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/igs/meteorites-in-iowa/

Russian asteroid in 2014:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/asteroid-samples-analysed-after-earth-collision/5472798

Icelandic flag:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ic.html

El Nino map:

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

Republican River dispute:

http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/regional_news/m-spent-by-nebraska-in-republican-river-basin-fight/article_61a43903-0bb3-5f07-89c3-0ebebfa56b6e.html

http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/nebraska-considered-big-winner-in-river-dispute-with-kansas-despite/article_7dec6af2-bc3b-11e4-baa8-d705578bcee6.html

Solar flare image:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News062013-cme.html#.Um3mcPnksrU

Ozone hole image:

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2006-09-24&hem=S

Federal funds rate graph:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/

Earth from space:

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=57723

Wayne tornado in 2014:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=surveyresultsfromwayne,netornado

Climate records:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/

Donald Rumsfeld:

https://www.dvidshub.net/image/33935/rumsfeld-visits-troops-farewell-visit#.VQERtI54o3U

Groundwater map:

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/StateMap.asp?sa=NE&sc=31

All other photos are copyright Brian Gongol