1) The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regarding trends and projections for various climate extremes including floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, drought, and wildfires. 2) The SREX found low confidence in attributed changes to many extremes due to lack of historical trends, but projected increases in some extremes like heat waves and drought in some regions. 3) The document discusses examples of extreme events from history that challenge the notion that recent extremes are unprecedented, such as the deadly 1936 North American heat wave.

1. 1
The Climate Year in Review:
a new focus on extremes
Stephen McIntyre
climateaudit.org
Toronto Ontario
London, England
August 16, 2012

3. Men’s Dash: David
Karoly (DQ)
Women’s Dash; Joelle
Gergis (DQ)

4. Disk Throw:
Defending Champions:
Phil Jones and keith
Briffa
Silver (tied): Muir Russell
and Ron Oxburgh
Gold: Thomas Stocker,
WG1 Co-Chair

5. Synchronized
Scamming:
Gold Medal- Peter Gleick

6. Volley of Abuse:
Three-time gold
medalist
:.. Michael Mann

7. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
UN Conference
on Sustainable
Development
Rio+20
UNFCCC Copenhagen Cancun Durban Nov-
Dohan
TBA Dec – TBA
WG1 Dec- FOD Oct- SOD Sep- Aoprove
WG2 Jun –
FOD
Mar- SOD Mar – Approve
WG3 Jul - FOD Feb – SOD Apr – Approve
Synthesis Apr – Review
Oct- Approve
IPCC Plenary Antalya;
Bali
Busan Abu Dhabi;
Kampala
Geneva Sep–
Stockholm;
Oct – Georgia
Mar- Japan;
Apr – Germany;
Oct-
Copenhagen
IPCC Reports May –
Renewable
s
Mar –
Extremes
Mar - WG1 Mar – AG2;
Apr- WG3;
Oct- -
Synthesis

8. IPCC Special Reports
May 2011 Mar 2012

9. “Scientists link extreme weather to
climate change”

10. SRREN:
IPCC Special Report on Renewables

11. Bill Gates

12. Hansen
But suggesting that renewables will let us
phase rapidly off fossil fuels in the United
States, China, India, or the world as a
whole is almost the equivalent of believing
in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy…
[reliance on soft renewables] is much less
than worthless. If you drink the kool-aid
represented in the right part of Fig. 7
[Amory Lovins' soft renewables fantasy],
you are a big part of the problem. The
problem is that, by drinking the kool-aid,
you are also pouring it down the throats of
my dear grandchildren and yours. The
tragedy in doing so is much greater than
that of Jim Jones’ gullible followers, who
forced their children to drink his kool-aid.
All life will bear the consequences.

13. IPCC Press Release
May 15, 2011: Close to 80 percent of the world‘s
energy supply could be met by renewables by
mid-century if backed by the right enabling public
policies a new report shows.
May 30, 2011:

14. The “Greenpeace Karaoke”
 80% figure came from a Greenpeace scenario
 IPCC did not do any independent due diligence
on the Greenpeace scenario
 A Greenpeace employee was a Lead Author of
the chapter assessing the Greenpeace scenario.

15. Even some greens were offended
Economist: His [McIntyre’s] desire for solid, honest answers is plainly
one to be shared. But the authors of the IPCC chapter involved declined
to evaluate the scenarios they looked at in terms of whether they
thought they were plausible, let alone likely. Ottmar Edenhofer, a
German economist who was one of those in overall charge of the
report, gives the impression that he would have welcomed a more
critical approach from his colleagues; but there is no mechanism
by which the people in charge can force an author team to do more,
or other, than it wants to.

16. SREX: MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND
DISASTERS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Chapter 1 Climate Change: New Dimensions in
Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and
Resilience
Chapter 2 Determinants of Risk: Exposure and
Vulnerability
Chapter 3 Changes in Climate Extremes and their
Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Chapter 4 Changes in Impacts of Climate
Extremes: Human Systems and Ecosystems
Chapter 5 Managing the Risks from Climate
Extremes at the Local Level
Chapter 6 National Systems for Managing the
Risks from Climate Extremes and Disasters
Chapter 7 Managing the Risks: International Level
and Integration across Scales
Chapter 8 Toward a Sustainable and Resilient
Future
Chapter 9 Case Studies

17. Field’s 2011 Disasters
 The US experienced 14 billion-
dollar disasters in 2011, a
record that far surpasses the
previous maximum of 9 (NOAA
2012a). The 2011 disasters
included a blizzard, tornadoes,
floods, severe weather, a
hurricane, a tropical storm,
drought and heat wave, and
wildfires. In 2012, we have
already experienced horrifying
wildfires, a powerful windstorm
that hit Washington DC, heat
waves in much of the country,
and a massive drought currently
affecting more of the US than
any drought since 1988.
 Climate change is shifting the
risk of hitting an extreme.
2011 Disaster NOAA
Count
Blizzard 1
Tornado 7
Drought/Heat
Wave
1
Flooding 2
Hurricane/Tropical
Storm
2
Wildfires 1
TOTAL 14

18. Chapter 5- Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes at
the Local Level
 Disasters are most acutely experienced at the
local level (high agreement, robust evidence).
 Sustainable land management is an effective
disaster risk reduction tool (high agreement,
robust evidence).
 Humanitarian relief is often required when
disaster risk reduction measures are absent
or inadequate (high agreement, robust
evidence).

19. SREX Case Studies
 If there is heavy snowfall, the
event is known as a white dzud,
conversely if no snow falls, a
black dzud occurs, which results
in a lack of drinking water for
herds. The trampling of plants
by passing livestock migrating to
better pasture or too high a
grazing pressure leads to a hoof
dzud, and a warm spell after
heavy snowfall resulting in an
icy crust cover on short grass
blocking livestock grazing
causes an iron dzud.
Disaster Case
Heat Wave Europe 2003, 2006
Wildfires Australia 2009
Drought Syria 2007-2010
Dzud Mongolia 2002, 2010
Cyclones Bangladesh, Myanmar,
Central America
Floods Mozambique 2000
Cholera Zimbabwe

20. Climate Extremes vs Disasters
 Climate Extreme ≠ Disaster
 To what extent do the “disasters” result
from poverty and/or inadequate
preparation?
 To what extent do weather-related
disasters result merely from increasing
exposure of people and economic assets
as opposed to climate change?
 The 1936 and 2012 U.S. droughts and
heat waves were very similar as climate
extremes, but the impacts were very
different.

21. Tornados
 SREX: the absence of trends in impacts attributable to
natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical
and extratropical storms and tornados.
 Tornado occurrence since 1950 in the United States, for
instance, displays an increasing trend that mainly reflects
increased population density and increased numbers of
people in remote areas.
 Over North America, a declining trend in 50th and 90th
percentile wind speeds has been reported for much of the
United States over 1973 to 2005 and in 10-m hourly wind
data over 1953-2006 over western and most of southern
Canada .
 There is low confidence in projections of small-scale
phenomena such as tornadoes because competing physical
processes may affect future trends and because climate
models do not simulate such phenomena.
 An increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
may cause some of the atmospheric conditions conducive to
tornadoes such as atmospheric instability to increase due to
increasing temperature and humidity, while others such as
vertical shear to decrease due to a reduced pole-to-equator
temperature gradient (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008).
 Field 2012: Specifically, the IPCC (IPCC 2012) did not
identify a trend or express confidence in projections
concerning tornadoes and other small-area events.

22. Hurricanes
 SREX: Low confidence in any observed
long-term (i.e., 40 years or more)
increases in tropical cyclone activity, after
accounting for past changes in observing
capabilities … normalized records of total
economic and insured losses for the same
series of hurricanes exhibit no significant
trends in losses since 1900.
 Likely that the global frequency of tropical
cyclones will either decrease or remain
essentially unchanged.
 Case study pointed to disproportionately
high damages in South Asia, and to poor
relief organization in Myanmar
 Field: “The evidence on hurricanes is
mixed.”

23. Floods
 research subsequent to the AR4 stilldoes not show
clear and widespread evidence of climate-driven
observed changes in the magnitude or frequency of
floods at the global level based on instrumental
records, and there is thus low confidence regarding
the magnitude and frequency and even the sign of
these changes.
 In the United States and Canada during the 20th
century and in the early 21st century, there is no
compelling evidence for climate-driven changes in
the magnitude or frequency of floods
 absence of an attributable climate change signal in
losses also holds for flood losses
 Although the damage caused by the 2011 floods on
the Chao Phraya river in Thailand was
unprecedented, the available data show that the
amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was
not very unusual. Other factors such as changes in
the hydrography and increased vulnerability were
therefore more important in setting the scale of the
disaster.

24. Wildfires
 research subsequent to the AR4 stilldoes not show
clear and widespread evidence of climate-driven
observed changes in the magnitude or frequency of
floods at the global level based on instrumental
records, and there is thus low confidence regarding
the magnitude and frequency and even the sign of
these changes.
 In the United States and Canada during the 20th
century and in the early 21st century, there is no
compelling evidence for climate-driven changes in
the magnitude or frequency of floods
 absence of an attributable climate change signal in
losses also holds for flood losses
 Although the damage caused by the 2011 floods on
the Chao Phraya river in Thailand was
unprecedented, the available data show that the
amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was
not very unusual. Other factors such as changes in
the hydrography and increased vulnerability were
therefore more important in setting the scale of the
disaster.

25. Heat Waves
 Heat waves are
“urban”; droughts are
“rural”.
 Temperatures in 2003
French heat wave
were over 35 deg C
for 11 days with 40
deg max
 Beniston 2004: Basel
days above 30 deg C
in 1947 exceeded
2003 (49 vs 41)

26. 1936 North American Heat Wave
 death toll exceeded 5,000
 a strong upper-level ridge
locked itself over the
central American Plains.
On 5 July, Gann Valley SD
hit 120oF (48.9oC). On 6
July, Steele ND reached
121oF (49.4oC), the hottest
temperature ever recorded
in the US outside the
desert Southwest
 In cities, people slept in the
streets

27. SREX on Heat Waves
 “While heat waves are projected to increase in
intensity and duration, their net effect on human
health is uncertain, largely because of
uncertainties about the structure of cities in the
future, adaptation measures, and access to
cooling. Many cities have installed heat watch
warning systems. Several studies show that the
sensitivity of the population of large US cities to
extreme heat events has been declining over
time”

28. The 1743 Beijing Heat Wave
 Temperature reached 43.1 on the 24th and 44.6 on the
25th before heat broke on the 26th. (French Jesuit
measurements from July 1743 to March 1746 on two
thermometers taken at 6.30 and 15.30). Beijing record
of 42.2 in 1999 comparable to 42.6 in 1942.
 From July 13 onwards, the heat seemed insupportable
and the consternation was general at the sight of dead
people lying everywhere, mostly fat and poor humans.
They died suddenly and were found on roads., in
streets or in houses. .. Since July 14 until July 25, the
Great Mandarins counted 11,400 persons dead from
people in the city and in the suburbs of Beijing, all poor
people, like craftsmen or workers.
 Gaoyi = with melting lead and tin at midday.
 Shenze – it is so strong that trees seem to be burned to
such extent as to give off a scorched odor,,, the disaster
is unprecedented.

29. Drought (SREX)
 Medium confidence in projected increase in duration and intensity of
droughts in some regions of the world, including southern Europe and
the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America,
Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa.
Overall low confidence elsewhere because of insufficient agreement of
projections.
 For example, plausible explanations have been proposed for projections
of both a worsening drought and a substantial increase in rainfall in the
Sahara (Biasutti et al., 2009; Burke et al., 2010).
 From a paleoclimate perspective recent droughts are not
unprecedented, with severe ‘megadroughts’ reported in the
paleoclimatic record for Europe, North America, and Australia. Recent
studies extend this observation to African and Indian droughts.
 AR5 ZOD; “Overall, multiple studies suggest that current drought and
flood regimes are not unusual within the context of last 1000 years
 Tom Wigley, 2003: (CG2- 682) Mike [Mann], Well put! By chance
SB03 may have got some of these precip things right, but we don't
want to give them any way to claim credit.

30. Paleodrought - Africa
 SREX: There is medium confidence that
since the 1950s some regions of the world
have experienced a trend to more intense
and longer droughts, in particular in
southern Europe and West Africa
 Shanahan 2009: More negative isotopic
values occur during intervals with high
precipitation rates. Shift in rainfall is
synchronous with a well-documented period
of extended drought in the Sahel region
 SREX: At regional scales, there is little
consensus in GCM projections regarding the
sign of future change in monsoon
characteristics, such as circulation and
rainfall. For instance, while some models
project an intense drying of the Sahel under
a global warming scenario, others project an
intensification of the rains, and some project
more frequent extreme events (Cook and
Vizy, 2006).

31. Paleodrought - Asia
 SREX: Documentary and geologic
evidence suggest that extended
intervals of drought associated to
weak ISM in the last 2 kyr were
synchronous across a large region of
Asia
 SREX: There is low confidence in
projections of changes in monsoons
(rainfall, circulation), because there is
little consensus in climate models
regarding the sign of future change in
the monsoons.
 However: SREX: A study of 19
CMIP3 global models reported a
projected increase in mean south
Asian summer monsoon
precipitation of 8%

32. North America
 Top - Medieval trees
submerged in US mountain
lakes (Lake Tahoe)
demonstrate drier conditions
in the medieval period;
 Middle – Cook’s
reconstruction from tree rings
shows medieval
megadroughts;
 Bottom: change from saline
to fresh water in northern
Great Plains lakes in late
medieval period.

33. Post-1976 “Wet Period”

34. 1936 vs 2012

35. La Nina and U.S. Drought

36. Crop Yields
 rmally, the state of Nebraska
averages around 20 inches of
rainfall a year.
 In 1930, Nebraska got 22 inches
of rain, and the state's corn crop
averaged 25 bushels per acre.
 In 1934, Nebraska saw the
driest year on record with only
14.5 inches of rainfall. The
state's corn crop dropped even
more to only 6.2 bushels per
acre.
 In other words, between 1930
and 1934 rainfall dropped 27.5
percent, and as a result corn
crop yields dropped over 75
percent.

37. Increasing Exposure
 On a global scale, annual material damage from large weather and
 climate events has been found to have increased eight-fold between the
 1960s and the 1990s, while the insured damage has been found to have
 increased by 17-fold in the same interval, in inflation-adjusted monetary
 units (Mechler and Kundzewicz, 2010). Between 1980 and 2004, the
 total costs of extreme weather events totaled US$ 1.4 trillion, of which
 only one-quarter was insured (Mills, 2005).
 Most studies of long-term disaster loss records attribute these increases in
losses to increasing exposure of people and assets in at-risk areas (Miller et al.,
2008; Bouwer, 2011), and to underlying societal trends – demographic,
economic, political, and social – that shape vulnerability to impacts (Pielke Jr. et
al., 2005; Bouwer et al., 2007).
 ncreasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major
 cause of long-term increases in economic losses from weather- and
 climate-related disasters (high confidence).

38. China
 In 2012, Chinese
emissions will be double
U.S. emissions
 In the past 5-6 years,
China’s emissions have
increased by an amount
equal to US’s entire
emissions
 US emissions have had
negligible trend over the
past 20 years and may
revert to 1990 levels this
year. CO2 Emissions. Red – China.
Blue U.S.

39. 39
The Climate Year in Review:
a new focus on extremes
Stephen McIntyre
climateaudit.org
Toronto Ontario
London, England
August 16, 2012

40. Muller’s Prerequisites

41.  ndia’s emissions rose by 140 Mt, or 8.7%, moving it ahead of Russia to
become the fourth largest emitter behind China, the United States, and
the European Union. Despite these increases, per-capita CO2 emissions
in China and India still remain just 63% and 15% of the OECD average
respectively.
 CO2 emissions in the United States in 2011 fell by 92 Mt, or 1.7%,
primarily due to ongoing switching from coal to natural gas in power
generation and an exceptionally mild winter, which reduced the demand
for space heating. US emissions have now fallen by 430 Mt (7.7%)
since 2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions. This
development has arisen from lower oil use in the transport sector (linked
to efficiency improvements, higher oil prices and the economic downturn
which has cut vehicle miles travelled) and a substantial shift from coal to
gas in the power sector. CO2 emissions in the EU in 2011 were lower by
69 Mt, or 1.9%, as sluggish economic growth cut industrial production
and a relatively warm winter reduced heating needs. By contrast,
Japan’s emissions increased by 28 Mt, or 2.4%, as a result of a
substantial increase in the use of fossil fuels in power generation post-
Fukushima.

42.  Heat-related deaths. 53% increase in ambulance
callouts;
 Cropping non-viable at dry margins though yeidl
increases from CO2
 Wildfires
 Storm surges

44.  Box 4-1 | Evolution of Climate, Exposure, and
Vulnerability – The Melbourne Fires, 7
February 2009
 Box 4-2 | Observed and Projected Trends in
Human Exposure: Tropical Cyclones and
Floods. However, trends in the population
exposed to these hazards
 are an important factor. Population projections in
tropical cyclone areas and flood-prone areas
imply that impacts will almost certainly
 continue to increase based on this factor alone.

45. Drought Projections

46. map
AR4 trend in precipitation
1901-2000
AR4 projected change in
precipitstion mm/day.

47. Interest in Global Warming
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/
2012/07/globalwarming_heatwave.png

48. 6- National Systems for Managing the Risks from Climate
Extremes and Disasters
 National systems are at the core of countries’
capacity to meet the challenges of observed and
projected trends in exposure, vulnerability, and
weather and climate extremes (high agreement,
robust evidence).
 The ability of governments to implement disaster
risk management responsibilities differs
significantly across countries, depending on their
capacity and resource constraints (high
agreement, robust evidence).
 Insurance-related instruments are key
mechanisms for helping households, business,
and governments absorb the losses from
disasters; but their uptake is unequally distributed
across regions and hazards, and often public-
private partnerships are required (high
agreement, robust evidence).

49. 7- Managing the Risks: International Level and Integration
across Scales
 The international community has accumulated substantial
experience in providing help for disasters and risk
management in the context of localized and short-term
events associated with climate variability and extremes.
 There are two main mechanisms at the international level
that are purpose-built and dedicated to disaster risk
management and climate change adaptation. These are the
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(UNISDR) and the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), in particular in its adaptation
components.
 International action on disaster risk reduction and climate
change adaptation can be motivated both by national
interests and a concern for the common (global) public
good.
 Expanded international financial support for climate change
adaptation as specified in the Cancun Agreements of 2010
and the Climate Change Green Fund will facilitate and
strengthen disaster risk management (medium confidence).

50. Chapter 4
 Extreme impacts can result from extreme weather and climate events, but can also
occur without extreme events
 Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters have increased, but with
large spatial and interannual variability (high confidence, based on high agreement,
medium evidence).
 Economic, including insured, disaster losses associated with weather, climate, and
geophysical events are higher in developed countries. Fatality rates and economic
losses expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) are higher in
developing countries (high confidence).
 Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major cause of long-
term increases in economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters (high
confidence). Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and
population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate
change has not been excluded (high agreement, medium evidence).
 In much of the developed world, societies are aging and hence can be more vulnerable
to climate extremes, such as heat waves.
 Transportation, infrastructure, water, and tourism are sectors sensitive to climate
extremes.
 Agriculture is also an economic sector exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes.
The economies of many developing countries rely heavily on agriculture, dominated by
small-scale and subsistence farming, and livelihoods in this sector are especially exposed to
climate extremes.
 Increases in exposure will result in higher direct economic losses from tropical
cyclones. Losses will depend on future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and

51. Selling of Climate Extremes
 My testimony today will address the state of scientific
knowledge concerning three key points.
 1) Overwhelming evidence establishes that climate
change is real
 2) Strong evidence indicates that some kinds of climate
extremes are already changing
 3) Climate change leads to changes in the risk of extreme
events that can lead to disasters
 As the US copes with the aftermath of last year’s record-
breaking series of 14 billion-dollar climate-related disasters
and this year’s massive wildfires and storms, it is critical to
understand that the link between climate change and the
kinds of extremes that lead to disasters is clear.
Overwhelming evidence supports the conclusion in the
latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change that “A changing climate leads to changes in the
frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of
extreme weather and climate events, and can result in
unprecedented extreme weather and climate events.”
(IPCC 2012).
 Based on the analysis of historical records since 1950, the
report identified trends of increasing extreme hot
temperatures, intense precipitation, and extreme high sea
levels.
 Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has
been the major cause of long-term increases in economic
losses from weather- and climate-related disasters (high
confidence).


52. Drought Cases
 SREX – Syria 2007-2010 : Of
the farmers who depended on
rain-fed production, most
suffered complete or near-
total loss of crops.
Approximately 70% of the
200,000 affected farmers in
the rainfed areas have
produced minimal to no yields
because seeds were not
planted due to poor soil
moisture conditions or failed
germination.
 USA 2012. Andrew Weaver:
“It's so extraordinarily unlikely
that it has to be due to global
warming,

53. Esper et al 2012