SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 5
Download to read offline
Critical Review of a Risk Assessment Method and its Applications
Silvianita 1
, Mohd. Faris Khamidi 2
and Kurian V. John 3
1
PhD Student in Civil Eng, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS; Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
2
Dr in Civil Engineering Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
3
Prof in Civil Engineering Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Abstract. Risk is a complex issue with methods that are suitable for the decisions being made. Risk
assessments tools are used for preparing a scientific basis to decrease the risk. There are several risk
assessments tools and recently it is studied that the focus has been improved to the application of the
integrated risk assessments tools. The tools currently used in risk assessments are HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and
ETA. This paper studied the literature of the applications in various industries. Related paper publishing in
the international journals are collected and analyzed so that the two questions can be answered: (i) what
method of risk assessment was currently used? (ii) do the currently used tools can be formulated into
integrated risk assessment tools? This paper not only explain evidence that the integrated risk assessment
tools better than stand alone risk assessment tool, but also supports the researchers and decision makers in
concerning the integrated risk assessment effectively.
Keywords: Assessment, Decision, Integrated, Risk,
1. Introduction.
Risk assessment is an analytic techniques that are used in different situations, depending upon the
characteristic of the hazard, the existing data, and requirements of decision makers as explained by Haimes
(2001). Risk based decision making is a process that organizes information about the possibility for one or
more unwanted outcomes to occur into a broad, orderly structure that helps decision makers make more
informed management choices as described by Macesker (2004). There are many approach using for risk
assessment therefore this paper will critically review of two issues including: (i) what method of risk
assessment was currently used? (ii) can the currently used tools be formulated into an integrated risk
assessment tool? The next part described the risk assessment tools and their application.
2. Risk Assessment.
Risk assessment is used for estimating the likelihood and the outcome of risks to human health, safety
and the environment and for enlightening decisions about how to deal with those risks. Risk assessments are
tools that used for preparing a scientific basis to reduce the risk. The tools were selected as recommended by
API 14J risk assessment method for hazard analysis because the wide applicability and success in making
decisions such as HAZOP, HAZID, FMEA, FTA, ETA, etc as described in Table 1.
2.1. FMEA (Failure Mode Effect and Analysis) – FTA (Fault Tree Analysis)
Moss and Kurty (1983) calculate the reliability analysis of preliminary design of Tension Leg Platform
(TLP) using FMEA and FTA. All possible failures and their impacts are identified and examined using
FMEA. FTA is constructed based on the cause/impact correlation identified in FMEA. The FTA
systematically describes all causes of undesired events leading to the failure mode. Geum et al (2009) used
FTA to describe the customers selection to proposed Service Tree Analysis (STA) which of service tree
construction, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The weakness of this method is the subjectivity.
83
2011 International Conference on Financial Management and Economics
IPEDR vol.11 (2011) © (2011) IACSIT Press, Singapore
2.2. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) - HAZID (Hazard Identification)
Pitt (1994) applied Hazop in manufacturing for safety assessment by defining how dangers can happen
and considering their severity. Controlling the probability of failure and severity of failure will help the
safety measures cost effective. Stiff et al. (2003) described the differences between spread mooring and
turret mooring systems using HAZID that come out into scenario categories. The quantitative risk
assessment is calculated using the structural reliability analysis between spread mooring and turret mooring.
Table 1. Risk Assessment Approach and their application
Approaches Authors Applications Specific Areas
FMEA – FTA Moss et al (1983) Offshore Reliability Analysis of TLP
FTA Geum et all (2009) Industry Service Process Selection
HAZOP Pitt (1994) Manufacturing Safety Assessment
HAZID – Structural
Reliability Analysis
Stiff et atl (2003) Offshore Comparative Risk Analysis of
Mooring
FETI-HAZOP-FTA Roy et al (2003) Material Quantitative Risk Assessment
in Production Facility
FTA – ETA
Jacinto & Silva (2009) Offshore Ship Building Industry
Dianous & Fievez
(2005)
Industry Methodology for Risk
Assessment
Targoutzidis (2009) Safety Methodological tool in the
process of risk assessment
HAZID - ETA Petruska et al (2009) Offshore Mooring MODU Risk
Assessments
ETA Ghodrati et al (2007) Mining Spare part selection
HAZOP – FTA –
ETA
Deacon et al (2010) Offshore Risk Analysis in Offshore
Emergencies
Cockshott (2005) Chemical Risk Management Tool
2.3. FETI (Fire Explosion and Toxicity Index) – HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) – FTA
(Fault Tree Analysis)
Roy et al (2003) studied the quantitative risk assessment for storage and purification section of a titanium
sponge production facility using FETI, HAZOP and FTA. FETI and HAZOP were used to find the most
hazardous section in the entire plant which is Titanium tetrachlodride (TiCl4), FTA is used as probabilistic
analysis to describe the root cause of an events.
2.4. FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA (Event Tree Analysis) known as Bow Tie Analysis
Dianous & Fievez (2005) built methodology for risk assessment in industry using bow tie diagrams to
identify the major accidents and the barriers. To assess the number and the reliability of the safety functions
risk graph is used so that a good risk control can be reached. Jacinto & Silva (2009) applied the bow tie
method in large shipyard. Firstly, it was used to initial qualitative analysis and secondly to calculate the semi
quantitative assessment. The accident risk level and acceptance criteria were carried out using scoring system.
Targoutzidis (2009) applied methodological tool in the process of risk assessment for incorporation of
human factors. FTA is used to define and assess pre condition and structures examination of human factors.
ETA stage only considered human error supplement which is subject to risk taking or skill based behavior.
Risk is developed from product of risk perception and risk motivation that includes economic, social or other
benefits.
2.5. HAZID (Hazard Identification) – ETA (Event Tree Analysis)
Petruska et al (2009) considered quantitative risk assessment approach to evaluate the risk of moored
MODU in deepwater facilities. Identifying and defining the potential mooring failure and the consequences
using HAZID which then used to develop the event trees of each scenario. ETA evaluates all the possible
failure sequence and identification of their respective consequence. Ghodrati et al (2007) modified the ETA
to calculate the associated risks (i.e. risk of shortage of spare parts) in estimation of the required number of
spare parts due to not considering the characteristics of system operating environment. The result shows
visualisation of risk in graphics that can facilitate correct decision making.
84
2.6. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) – FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) – ETA (Event Tree
Analysis)
Deacon et al (2010) evaluated the risk of human error during offshore emergency musters with HAZOP
and bow tie analysis. HAZOP is used to record failure modes, potential consequence and safeguards. Bow tie
model allow analyzing the human factors consequence. This method can decrease the gap between real and
perceived risk in emergency preparedness if used appropriately. Cockshott (2005) constructed methodology
for a new hazardous chemical marine terminal using probability bow ties and expanded with rapid risk
ranking (RRR). The bow tie and RRR combination is called probability bow tie (PBT).
3. Discussion
There are many approaches for hazards analysis on operating facilities or new projects. The different
approaches have various applications and advantages, and they need different level of effort and resources.
Based on the literature review it can be seen that the risk assessment method have been applied in many
areas. In offshore the methods that currently used for hazard analysis are HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and ETA as
described in Table 2:
Table 2. Characteristic of Hazard Analysis (API RP 14 J)
No API RP 14J Hazard and
Operability (HAZOP)
Failure Modes and
Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Fault Tree
Analysis (FTA)
Event Tree
Analysis (ETA)
1. Level of Effort /
Complexity
Medium to High Medium to High High High
2. Level of Expertise
Required for
Analysis Teams
Medium Medium Medium to High Medium to High
3. Qualitative
Accident
Descriptions
√ √ √ √
4. Quantitative
Risk
Characterizations
- √ √ √
5. Relative
Importances of
Accident
Contributors
- √ √ √
6. Types of
Activities or
Systems
All types of
process/plants/facilities
All, in the design phase,
facility modifications
and operation
All, in the design
phase, facility
modifications and
operation
All, in the design
phase, facility
modifications and
operation
7. Utilizing Data A complete set of
process flow
diagrams, P&IDs,
plot plans, equipment
layouts and operating
procedures.
The technique requires
at least two analysts
who are familiar with
the process and the
equipment.
P&IDs, equipment
drawings and
specifications,
operating
procedures, know-
ledge of failure
modes
P&IDs,
equipment
drawings and
specifications,
operating
procedures,
know-ledge of
failure modes
8. Results A list of problem areas
that lead to potential
hazards / operability
problems, and a list of
recommended
changes, suggestions
or actions to improve
safety/operability.
A tabulation of facility
equipment items, their
potential failure modes
and the effects of these
failures on the
equipment or facility.
A set of logic
diagrams that
illustrates how
certain
combinations of
failures and/or
errors can result in
specific accidents.
A set of logic
diagrams that
illustrates
sequence of
events of specific
accidents.
Typically HAZOP is used to perform safety related studies, while FMEA Identification of single point
failures and their mode and effect. The FTA is visually models the logical relationship between equipment
failures, human errors, and external events that can combine to cause specific accidents. The ETA is
technique that logically develops visual models of the possible outcomes of an initiating event. Each
85
methods of hazard analysis have their own limitations; therefore a lot of researchers combine each method
with another method. Focusing the four methods of hazard analysis HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and ETA the
limitations of each method can be seen in Table 3:
Table. 3. Limitations of Hazard Risk Analysis Methods (ABS, 2001)
No. Hazard Risk
Analysis Methods
Limitations Tendency to Type of
Decision Analysis
1. Failure Modes and
Effects Analysis
(FMEA)
- Examination of human error is limited
- Focus is on single event initiators of
problems
- Examination of external influences is limited
- Results are dependent on the mode of
operation
- Highly structured assessment relying
on evaluation of component failure
modes and team experience
- Uses frequently as the basis for
optimizing planned
2. Hazard and
Operability
(HAZOP) Analysis
- Requires a well defined system or activity
- Time consuming
- Focuses on one event causes of deviations
Used to review procedures and
sequential operations
3. Fault Tree Analysis
(FTA)
- Narrow focus
- Art as well as science
- Quantification requires significant expertise
Assessments generates relative
importance of various failure and
contributing events
4. Event Tree
Analysis (ETA)
- Limited to one initiating event
- Can overlook subtle system dependencies
Analysis technique generates failure
sequences and contributing events
Fig. 1 : Hazard Analysis Framework
Hazard analysis framework is an integration of four methods as can be seen in Figure 1. The main flow
of new integrated risk assessment is start with FMEA procedure that will connect into HAZOP procedure
which is used as hazard identification. Continuing the main flow FTA and ETA procedures are started. FTA
is used to identify the possible causes and ETA is used to identify the possible consequences of critical
events then the decision making can be reached.
86
4. Conclusion
This paper is based on a literature review on the risk assessment methods. The risk assessments
approaches are applied in various areas and the problems solve. It was found that the currently used methods
for risk assessment are HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and ETA. Each methods of risk assessment have their
limitation therefore this paper attempt to formulate integrated risk assessment tools. It was observed that
currently used risk assessment methods can be integrated into new approach that can aid the decision makers
applying the risk assessment effectively.
5. Acknowledgement
The author would like to grateful Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) for providing useful
resources for this research.
6. References
[1] H.H. Moss, M.W. Kurty, (1983). Reliability Analysis of A Tension Leg Platform. IEEE Xplore.
[2] D. Petruska,. H.Banon, P. Liagre, and M. Leary, 2009. Moored MODU Risk Assessment. Offshore Technology
Conference 20165.
[3] M.J. Pitt. 1994. Hazard and Operability Studies : A Tool for Management Analysis. Facilities, Vol. 12 No 13. pp.
5-8
[4] C. Jasinto, C. Silva. A Semi Quantitative Assessment of Occupational Risks Using Bow Tie Representation.
Safety Sci. (2009), doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2009.08.008
[5] V. Dianous., C. Fievez. ARAMIS Project : A More Explicit Demonstration of Risk Control Through The Use of
Bow Tie Diagrams and The Evaluation of Safety Barrier Performance. Journal of Hazardous Material 130 (2006)
220-233.
[6] T. Deacon, P.R. Amyotte, F.I. Khan. Human Error Risk Analysis in Offshore Emergencies. Safety Sci. (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2010.02.013
[7] J.E. Cockshott. Probability Bow Ties A Transparent Risk Management Tool. Journal of Process Safety and
Environmental Protection, 2005. 83(B4):307-316
[8] P.K.Roy, A.Bhatt, C.Rajagopal. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Accidental Release of Titanium Tetrachloride
in A Titanium Sponge Production Plant. 2003. Journal of Hazardous Materials A 102(2003) 167-186.
[9] A. Targoutzidis. Incorporating Human Factos Into A Simplified “Bow-Tie” Approach for Workplace Risk
Assessment. Safety Sci.48(145-156)
[10] J. Stiff, J. Ferrari, A. Ku, R. Spong. Comparative Risk Analysis of Two FPSO Mooring Configurations. OTC
15377. 2003.
[11] ABS Consulting. 2001. Principles of Risk Based Decision Making. United States. Beck, N. 2006. Proposed Risk
Assessment Bulletin. Office of Management and Budget.
[12] B. Macesker, JJ.Myers, V.H. Guthrie, D.A., Walker, S.G.Schoolcraft, 2004. Quick Reference Guide to Risk
Based Decision Making (RBDM): A Step by Step Example of the RBDM Process in the Field. EQE International,
Inc., an ABS Group Company Knoxville, Tennesses.
[13] Y.Y. Haimes, 2001. Risk Modeling Assessment and Management. John Wiley and Sons. New York. Harvad
University Press Cambridge.
[14] Y. Geum, H. Seol, S. Lee, Y. Park. Application of Fault Tree Analysis to the Service Process: Service Tree
Analysis Approach. Journal of Service Management, Vol. 20 No.4, 2009 pp.433-454.
[15] B. Ghodrati, P.A. Akersten, U. Kumar. Spare Parts Estimastion and Risk Assessment Conducted at Choghart Iron
Ore Mine A Case Study. Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering Vol. 13 No.4, 2007. pp.353-363.
[16] API RECOMMENDED PRACTICE 14J First Edition September 1993. Recommended Practice for Design and
Hazards Analysis for Offshore Production Facilities.
87

More Related Content

Similar to 16 r10014

pramod elsevier paper
pramod elsevier paperpramod elsevier paper
pramod elsevier paperpramod kumar
 
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENTPROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENTIRJET Journal
 
Fault tree analysis
Fault tree analysisFault tree analysis
Fault tree analysisAkku Singh
 
Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...
Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...
Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...CSCJournals
 
Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...
Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...
Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...IJLT EMAS
 
Risk Assessment and Management
Risk Assessment and ManagementRisk Assessment and Management
Risk Assessment and ManagementIsuru Asiri
 
Accident prediction models
Accident prediction modelsAccident prediction models
Accident prediction modelsAnton Budiharjo
 
IRJET- Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...
IRJET- 	  Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...IRJET- 	  Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...
IRJET- Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...IRJET Journal
 
Risk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure project
Risk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure projectRisk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure project
Risk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure projectIRJET Journal
 
Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...
Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...
Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...IRJET Journal
 
Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...
Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...
Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...Alexander Decker
 
Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...
Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...
Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...IRJET Journal
 
Design failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicle
Design failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicleDesign failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicle
Design failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicleeSAT Journals
 
Effectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction Sector
Effectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction SectorEffectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction Sector
Effectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction SectorIRJET Journal
 
Fault tree analysis semiar report
Fault tree analysis semiar reportFault tree analysis semiar report
Fault tree analysis semiar reportAnusha Chethana
 

Similar to 16 r10014 (20)

pramod elsevier paper
pramod elsevier paperpramod elsevier paper
pramod elsevier paper
 
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENTPROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT
 
HAZOP
HAZOPHAZOP
HAZOP
 
10120140506004 2
10120140506004 210120140506004 2
10120140506004 2
 
10120140506004 2
10120140506004 210120140506004 2
10120140506004 2
 
Fault tree analysis
Fault tree analysisFault tree analysis
Fault tree analysis
 
Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...
Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...
Development of Modified Evaluation and Prioritization of Risk Priority Number...
 
Dt34733739
Dt34733739Dt34733739
Dt34733739
 
Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...
Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...
Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...
 
Risk Assessment and Management
Risk Assessment and ManagementRisk Assessment and Management
Risk Assessment and Management
 
Accident prediction models
Accident prediction modelsAccident prediction models
Accident prediction models
 
IRJET- Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...
IRJET- 	  Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...IRJET- 	  Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...
IRJET- Analysis of Risk Management in Construction Sector using Fault Tree...
 
Risk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure project
Risk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure projectRisk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure project
Risk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure project
 
Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...
Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...
Risks in Public and Private Partnership Projects –Identification and Prioriti...
 
Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...
Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...
Risks associated with maintenance decisions concerning the afam electricity g...
 
Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...
Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...
Risk Analysis at Ship to Shore (STS) Cranes in Container Terminal Operational...
 
Lecture 8
Lecture 8Lecture 8
Lecture 8
 
Design failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicle
Design failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicleDesign failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicle
Design failure modes and effects analysis (dfmea) of an all terrain vehicle
 
Effectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction Sector
Effectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction SectorEffectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction Sector
Effectiveness of Risk Management and Chosen Methods in Construction Sector
 
Fault tree analysis semiar report
Fault tree analysis semiar reportFault tree analysis semiar report
Fault tree analysis semiar report
 

Recently uploaded

Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communicationInteractive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communicationnomboosow
 
Proudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptx
Proudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptxProudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptx
Proudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptxthorishapillay1
 
Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17
Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17
Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17Celine George
 
Alper Gobel In Media Res Media Component
Alper Gobel In Media Res Media ComponentAlper Gobel In Media Res Media Component
Alper Gobel In Media Res Media ComponentInMediaRes1
 
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon ACrayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon AUnboundStockton
 
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️9953056974 Low Rate Call Girls In Saket, Delhi NCR
 
CELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptx
CELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptxCELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptx
CELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptxJiesonDelaCerna
 
Enzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdf
Enzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdfEnzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdf
Enzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdfSumit Tiwari
 
DATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginners
DATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginnersDATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginners
DATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginnersSabitha Banu
 
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptxHow to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptxmanuelaromero2013
 
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...Marc Dusseiller Dusjagr
 
Earth Day Presentation wow hello nice great
Earth Day Presentation wow hello nice greatEarth Day Presentation wow hello nice great
Earth Day Presentation wow hello nice greatYousafMalik24
 
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptxCARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptxGaneshChakor2
 
Pharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdf
Pharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdfPharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdf
Pharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdfMahmoud M. Sallam
 
How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17
How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17
How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17Celine George
 
18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdf
18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdf18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdf
18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdfssuser54595a
 
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxIntroduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxpboyjonauth
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communicationInteractive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
Interactive Powerpoint_How to Master effective communication
 
9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini Delhi NCR
9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini  Delhi NCR9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini  Delhi NCR
9953330565 Low Rate Call Girls In Rohini Delhi NCR
 
Proudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptx
Proudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptxProudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptx
Proudly South Africa powerpoint Thorisha.pptx
 
Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17
Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17
Incoming and Outgoing Shipments in 1 STEP Using Odoo 17
 
Alper Gobel In Media Res Media Component
Alper Gobel In Media Res Media ComponentAlper Gobel In Media Res Media Component
Alper Gobel In Media Res Media Component
 
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon ACrayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
 
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
call girls in Kamla Market (DELHI) 🔝 >༒9953330565🔝 genuine Escort Service 🔝✔️✔️
 
CELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptx
CELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptxCELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptx
CELL CYCLE Division Science 8 quarter IV.pptx
 
Enzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdf
Enzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdfEnzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdf
Enzyme, Pharmaceutical Aids, Miscellaneous Last Part of Chapter no 5th.pdf
 
DATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginners
DATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginnersDATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginners
DATA STRUCTURE AND ALGORITHM for beginners
 
Model Call Girl in Bikash Puri Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Bikash Puri  Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝Model Call Girl in Bikash Puri  Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Bikash Puri Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
 
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptxHow to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
 
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
 
Earth Day Presentation wow hello nice great
Earth Day Presentation wow hello nice greatEarth Day Presentation wow hello nice great
Earth Day Presentation wow hello nice great
 
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptxCARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
CARE OF CHILD IN INCUBATOR..........pptx
 
Pharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdf
Pharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdfPharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdf
Pharmacognosy Flower 3. Compositae 2023.pdf
 
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
 
How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17
How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17
How to Configure Email Server in Odoo 17
 
18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdf
18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdf18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdf
18-04-UA_REPORT_MEDIALITERAСY_INDEX-DM_23-1-final-eng.pdf
 
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxIntroduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
 

16 r10014

  • 1. Critical Review of a Risk Assessment Method and its Applications Silvianita 1 , Mohd. Faris Khamidi 2 and Kurian V. John 3 1 PhD Student in Civil Eng, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS; Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember 2 Dr in Civil Engineering Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS 3 Prof in Civil Engineering Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS Abstract. Risk is a complex issue with methods that are suitable for the decisions being made. Risk assessments tools are used for preparing a scientific basis to decrease the risk. There are several risk assessments tools and recently it is studied that the focus has been improved to the application of the integrated risk assessments tools. The tools currently used in risk assessments are HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and ETA. This paper studied the literature of the applications in various industries. Related paper publishing in the international journals are collected and analyzed so that the two questions can be answered: (i) what method of risk assessment was currently used? (ii) do the currently used tools can be formulated into integrated risk assessment tools? This paper not only explain evidence that the integrated risk assessment tools better than stand alone risk assessment tool, but also supports the researchers and decision makers in concerning the integrated risk assessment effectively. Keywords: Assessment, Decision, Integrated, Risk, 1. Introduction. Risk assessment is an analytic techniques that are used in different situations, depending upon the characteristic of the hazard, the existing data, and requirements of decision makers as explained by Haimes (2001). Risk based decision making is a process that organizes information about the possibility for one or more unwanted outcomes to occur into a broad, orderly structure that helps decision makers make more informed management choices as described by Macesker (2004). There are many approach using for risk assessment therefore this paper will critically review of two issues including: (i) what method of risk assessment was currently used? (ii) can the currently used tools be formulated into an integrated risk assessment tool? The next part described the risk assessment tools and their application. 2. Risk Assessment. Risk assessment is used for estimating the likelihood and the outcome of risks to human health, safety and the environment and for enlightening decisions about how to deal with those risks. Risk assessments are tools that used for preparing a scientific basis to reduce the risk. The tools were selected as recommended by API 14J risk assessment method for hazard analysis because the wide applicability and success in making decisions such as HAZOP, HAZID, FMEA, FTA, ETA, etc as described in Table 1. 2.1. FMEA (Failure Mode Effect and Analysis) – FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) Moss and Kurty (1983) calculate the reliability analysis of preliminary design of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) using FMEA and FTA. All possible failures and their impacts are identified and examined using FMEA. FTA is constructed based on the cause/impact correlation identified in FMEA. The FTA systematically describes all causes of undesired events leading to the failure mode. Geum et al (2009) used FTA to describe the customers selection to proposed Service Tree Analysis (STA) which of service tree construction, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The weakness of this method is the subjectivity. 83 2011 International Conference on Financial Management and Economics IPEDR vol.11 (2011) © (2011) IACSIT Press, Singapore
  • 2. 2.2. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) - HAZID (Hazard Identification) Pitt (1994) applied Hazop in manufacturing for safety assessment by defining how dangers can happen and considering their severity. Controlling the probability of failure and severity of failure will help the safety measures cost effective. Stiff et al. (2003) described the differences between spread mooring and turret mooring systems using HAZID that come out into scenario categories. The quantitative risk assessment is calculated using the structural reliability analysis between spread mooring and turret mooring. Table 1. Risk Assessment Approach and their application Approaches Authors Applications Specific Areas FMEA – FTA Moss et al (1983) Offshore Reliability Analysis of TLP FTA Geum et all (2009) Industry Service Process Selection HAZOP Pitt (1994) Manufacturing Safety Assessment HAZID – Structural Reliability Analysis Stiff et atl (2003) Offshore Comparative Risk Analysis of Mooring FETI-HAZOP-FTA Roy et al (2003) Material Quantitative Risk Assessment in Production Facility FTA – ETA Jacinto & Silva (2009) Offshore Ship Building Industry Dianous & Fievez (2005) Industry Methodology for Risk Assessment Targoutzidis (2009) Safety Methodological tool in the process of risk assessment HAZID - ETA Petruska et al (2009) Offshore Mooring MODU Risk Assessments ETA Ghodrati et al (2007) Mining Spare part selection HAZOP – FTA – ETA Deacon et al (2010) Offshore Risk Analysis in Offshore Emergencies Cockshott (2005) Chemical Risk Management Tool 2.3. FETI (Fire Explosion and Toxicity Index) – HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) – FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) Roy et al (2003) studied the quantitative risk assessment for storage and purification section of a titanium sponge production facility using FETI, HAZOP and FTA. FETI and HAZOP were used to find the most hazardous section in the entire plant which is Titanium tetrachlodride (TiCl4), FTA is used as probabilistic analysis to describe the root cause of an events. 2.4. FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA (Event Tree Analysis) known as Bow Tie Analysis Dianous & Fievez (2005) built methodology for risk assessment in industry using bow tie diagrams to identify the major accidents and the barriers. To assess the number and the reliability of the safety functions risk graph is used so that a good risk control can be reached. Jacinto & Silva (2009) applied the bow tie method in large shipyard. Firstly, it was used to initial qualitative analysis and secondly to calculate the semi quantitative assessment. The accident risk level and acceptance criteria were carried out using scoring system. Targoutzidis (2009) applied methodological tool in the process of risk assessment for incorporation of human factors. FTA is used to define and assess pre condition and structures examination of human factors. ETA stage only considered human error supplement which is subject to risk taking or skill based behavior. Risk is developed from product of risk perception and risk motivation that includes economic, social or other benefits. 2.5. HAZID (Hazard Identification) – ETA (Event Tree Analysis) Petruska et al (2009) considered quantitative risk assessment approach to evaluate the risk of moored MODU in deepwater facilities. Identifying and defining the potential mooring failure and the consequences using HAZID which then used to develop the event trees of each scenario. ETA evaluates all the possible failure sequence and identification of their respective consequence. Ghodrati et al (2007) modified the ETA to calculate the associated risks (i.e. risk of shortage of spare parts) in estimation of the required number of spare parts due to not considering the characteristics of system operating environment. The result shows visualisation of risk in graphics that can facilitate correct decision making. 84
  • 3. 2.6. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) – FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) – ETA (Event Tree Analysis) Deacon et al (2010) evaluated the risk of human error during offshore emergency musters with HAZOP and bow tie analysis. HAZOP is used to record failure modes, potential consequence and safeguards. Bow tie model allow analyzing the human factors consequence. This method can decrease the gap between real and perceived risk in emergency preparedness if used appropriately. Cockshott (2005) constructed methodology for a new hazardous chemical marine terminal using probability bow ties and expanded with rapid risk ranking (RRR). The bow tie and RRR combination is called probability bow tie (PBT). 3. Discussion There are many approaches for hazards analysis on operating facilities or new projects. The different approaches have various applications and advantages, and they need different level of effort and resources. Based on the literature review it can be seen that the risk assessment method have been applied in many areas. In offshore the methods that currently used for hazard analysis are HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and ETA as described in Table 2: Table 2. Characteristic of Hazard Analysis (API RP 14 J) No API RP 14J Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Event Tree Analysis (ETA) 1. Level of Effort / Complexity Medium to High Medium to High High High 2. Level of Expertise Required for Analysis Teams Medium Medium Medium to High Medium to High 3. Qualitative Accident Descriptions √ √ √ √ 4. Quantitative Risk Characterizations - √ √ √ 5. Relative Importances of Accident Contributors - √ √ √ 6. Types of Activities or Systems All types of process/plants/facilities All, in the design phase, facility modifications and operation All, in the design phase, facility modifications and operation All, in the design phase, facility modifications and operation 7. Utilizing Data A complete set of process flow diagrams, P&IDs, plot plans, equipment layouts and operating procedures. The technique requires at least two analysts who are familiar with the process and the equipment. P&IDs, equipment drawings and specifications, operating procedures, know- ledge of failure modes P&IDs, equipment drawings and specifications, operating procedures, know-ledge of failure modes 8. Results A list of problem areas that lead to potential hazards / operability problems, and a list of recommended changes, suggestions or actions to improve safety/operability. A tabulation of facility equipment items, their potential failure modes and the effects of these failures on the equipment or facility. A set of logic diagrams that illustrates how certain combinations of failures and/or errors can result in specific accidents. A set of logic diagrams that illustrates sequence of events of specific accidents. Typically HAZOP is used to perform safety related studies, while FMEA Identification of single point failures and their mode and effect. The FTA is visually models the logical relationship between equipment failures, human errors, and external events that can combine to cause specific accidents. The ETA is technique that logically develops visual models of the possible outcomes of an initiating event. Each 85
  • 4. methods of hazard analysis have their own limitations; therefore a lot of researchers combine each method with another method. Focusing the four methods of hazard analysis HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and ETA the limitations of each method can be seen in Table 3: Table. 3. Limitations of Hazard Risk Analysis Methods (ABS, 2001) No. Hazard Risk Analysis Methods Limitations Tendency to Type of Decision Analysis 1. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) - Examination of human error is limited - Focus is on single event initiators of problems - Examination of external influences is limited - Results are dependent on the mode of operation - Highly structured assessment relying on evaluation of component failure modes and team experience - Uses frequently as the basis for optimizing planned 2. Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis - Requires a well defined system or activity - Time consuming - Focuses on one event causes of deviations Used to review procedures and sequential operations 3. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) - Narrow focus - Art as well as science - Quantification requires significant expertise Assessments generates relative importance of various failure and contributing events 4. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) - Limited to one initiating event - Can overlook subtle system dependencies Analysis technique generates failure sequences and contributing events Fig. 1 : Hazard Analysis Framework Hazard analysis framework is an integration of four methods as can be seen in Figure 1. The main flow of new integrated risk assessment is start with FMEA procedure that will connect into HAZOP procedure which is used as hazard identification. Continuing the main flow FTA and ETA procedures are started. FTA is used to identify the possible causes and ETA is used to identify the possible consequences of critical events then the decision making can be reached. 86
  • 5. 4. Conclusion This paper is based on a literature review on the risk assessment methods. The risk assessments approaches are applied in various areas and the problems solve. It was found that the currently used methods for risk assessment are HAZOP, FMEA, FTA and ETA. Each methods of risk assessment have their limitation therefore this paper attempt to formulate integrated risk assessment tools. It was observed that currently used risk assessment methods can be integrated into new approach that can aid the decision makers applying the risk assessment effectively. 5. Acknowledgement The author would like to grateful Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) for providing useful resources for this research. 6. References [1] H.H. Moss, M.W. Kurty, (1983). Reliability Analysis of A Tension Leg Platform. IEEE Xplore. [2] D. Petruska,. H.Banon, P. Liagre, and M. Leary, 2009. Moored MODU Risk Assessment. Offshore Technology Conference 20165. [3] M.J. Pitt. 1994. Hazard and Operability Studies : A Tool for Management Analysis. Facilities, Vol. 12 No 13. pp. 5-8 [4] C. Jasinto, C. Silva. A Semi Quantitative Assessment of Occupational Risks Using Bow Tie Representation. Safety Sci. (2009), doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2009.08.008 [5] V. Dianous., C. Fievez. ARAMIS Project : A More Explicit Demonstration of Risk Control Through The Use of Bow Tie Diagrams and The Evaluation of Safety Barrier Performance. Journal of Hazardous Material 130 (2006) 220-233. [6] T. Deacon, P.R. Amyotte, F.I. Khan. Human Error Risk Analysis in Offshore Emergencies. Safety Sci. (2010), doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2010.02.013 [7] J.E. Cockshott. Probability Bow Ties A Transparent Risk Management Tool. Journal of Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2005. 83(B4):307-316 [8] P.K.Roy, A.Bhatt, C.Rajagopal. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Accidental Release of Titanium Tetrachloride in A Titanium Sponge Production Plant. 2003. Journal of Hazardous Materials A 102(2003) 167-186. [9] A. Targoutzidis. Incorporating Human Factos Into A Simplified “Bow-Tie” Approach for Workplace Risk Assessment. Safety Sci.48(145-156) [10] J. Stiff, J. Ferrari, A. Ku, R. Spong. Comparative Risk Analysis of Two FPSO Mooring Configurations. OTC 15377. 2003. [11] ABS Consulting. 2001. Principles of Risk Based Decision Making. United States. Beck, N. 2006. Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin. Office of Management and Budget. [12] B. Macesker, JJ.Myers, V.H. Guthrie, D.A., Walker, S.G.Schoolcraft, 2004. Quick Reference Guide to Risk Based Decision Making (RBDM): A Step by Step Example of the RBDM Process in the Field. EQE International, Inc., an ABS Group Company Knoxville, Tennesses. [13] Y.Y. Haimes, 2001. Risk Modeling Assessment and Management. John Wiley and Sons. New York. Harvad University Press Cambridge. [14] Y. Geum, H. Seol, S. Lee, Y. Park. Application of Fault Tree Analysis to the Service Process: Service Tree Analysis Approach. Journal of Service Management, Vol. 20 No.4, 2009 pp.433-454. [15] B. Ghodrati, P.A. Akersten, U. Kumar. Spare Parts Estimastion and Risk Assessment Conducted at Choghart Iron Ore Mine A Case Study. Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering Vol. 13 No.4, 2007. pp.353-363. [16] API RECOMMENDED PRACTICE 14J First Edition September 1993. Recommended Practice for Design and Hazards Analysis for Offshore Production Facilities. 87