https://www.academia.edu/30644826/Transforming_the_future_of_minerals_exploration Abstract The future of minerals exploration remains uncertain as geological, economic, environmental and socio-political issues impact upon the funding and land access required for exploration. Technology, innovation and improved skills and education are often cited as general methods for resolving geological and even economic difficulties in exploration, however, this leaves critical environmental and socio-political issues unresolved. A recent scenario planning workshop, via an emergent and collective decision, investigated the interaction of technology, skills and education and the environmental and socio-political issues prevailing on explorers. The scenarios workshop used the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and started out with purely strategic intentions. The initial findings suggested that technology and education played a key role in societal development overall and therefore the exploration industry could use these to enhance its reputation, and in turn overall access to search space. However, the systemic reputational vulnerability of the mining industry, where one incident by an industry party beyond the actors control, can damage the reputation of everyone in the industry, means this ‘reputation-based’ strategy is very difficult to pursue individually, and thus collective action is required. With this realisation, the workshop moved into a transformative scenarios approach, more focused on galvanising social action towards a better future. As such two future scenarios were envisioned – a negative ‘Two Peoples’ scenario, where the world is trapped in cycle of revolution caused by inequity between the ‘haves’ and ‘have not’s’; and a positive ‘iWorld’ scenario, which breaks the cycle creating a prosperous yet more equitable society. Clearly, the collective aim of the mining industry should be to move towards the iWorld scenario. To transition into this future, explorers must not only become more technologically sophisticated and innovative, but also more collaborative with both local communities, and national and supranational governments. This concept is described as ‘big exploration’ where the importance of ‘boots on the ground’ is not just geological, but sociopolitical. Whether companies, professionals, and the professional societies involved in exploration are ready for this transition remains an unanswered question. Keywords: Transformation, scenarios, technology, education, society, future, mining, exploration. John P Sykes The University of Western Australia, Centre for Exploration Targeting, Graduate Student

1. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
1
Transforming the future of minerals exploration
J.P. Sykes1,2
, A. Trench3,4,5
, T.C. McCuaig6,7
, T. Craske8
, J. Dwyer9
,
N. Subramaniam10,11
, S.T.M. Sullivan12,13
and W. Turner14
1
MAusIMM, Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth & Environment, The
University of Western Australia, WA 6009, Australia, john.sykes@research.uwa.edu.au
2
Greenfields Research Ltd, Harrogate, HG3 3HA, United Kingdom
3
FAusIMM, Business School, The University of Western Australia, WA 6009, Australia,
allan.trench@uwa.edu.au
4
Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth & Environment, The University of
Western Australia, WA 6009, Australia
5
CRU Group, London, WC2A 1QS, United Kingdom
6
MAusIMM, BHP Billiton, Perth, WA 6000, Australia
7
Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth & Environment, The University of
Western Australia, WA 6009, Australia, campbell.mccuaig@uwa.edu.au
8
Thinkercafe, Geowisdom Pty Ltd., Applecross, WA 6153, Australia,
timcraske50@gmail.com
9
HiSeis Pty Ltd., WA 6102, Australia, j.dwyer@hiseis.com
10
Transmin Pty Ltd., WA 6090, Australia, naren.subramaniam@googlemail.com
11
Business School, The University of Western Australia, WA 6009, Australia
12
School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia, WA 6009, Australia,
siobhan.t.sullivan@research.uwa.edu.au
13
Science Directorate, Botanic Gardens and Parks Authority, WA 6005, Australia
14
Independent Geological Consultant, Bellevue, WA 6050, Australia,
william.ja.turner@gmail.com
Abstract
The future of minerals exploration remains uncertain as geological, economic, environmental and socio-political
issues impact upon the funding and land access required for exploration. Technology, innovation and improved
skills and education are often cited as general methods for resolving geological and even economic difficulties in
exploration, however, this leaves critical environmental and socio-political issues unresolved. A recent scenario
planning workshop, via an emergent and collective decision, investigated the interaction of technology, skills
and education and the environmental and socio-political issues prevailing on explorers. The scenarios workshop
used the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and started out with purely strategic intentions. The initial findings
suggested that technology and education played a key role in societal development overall and therefore the
exploration industry could use these to enhance its reputation, and in turn overall access to search space.
However, the systemic reputational vulnerability of the mining industry, where one incident by an industry party
beyond the actors control, can damage the reputation of everyone in the industry, means this ‘reputation-based’
strategy is very difficult to pursue individually, and thus collective action is required. With this realisation, the
workshop moved into a transformative scenarios approach, more focused on galvanising social action towards a
better future. As such two future scenarios were envisioned – a negative ‘Two Peoples’ scenario, where the
world is trapped in cycle of revolution caused by inequity between the ‘haves’ and ‘have not’s’; and a positive
‘iWorld’ scenario, which breaks the cycle creating a prosperous yet more equitable society. Clearly, the
collective aim of the mining industry should be to move towards the iWorld scenario. To transition into this
future, explorers must not only become more technologically sophisticated and innovative, but also more
collaborative with both local communities, and national and supranational governments. This concept is
described as ‘big exploration’ where the importance of ‘boots on the ground’ is not just geological, but socio-
political. Whether companies, professionals, and the professional societies involved in exploration are ready for
this transition remains an unanswered question.
Keywords: Transformation, scenarios, technology, education, society, future, mining, exploration.

2. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
2
Introduction
This paper considers how technology and education (including skills training) can both enable
and disable industry reputation and open-up or limit tacit access to exploration projects and
opportunities – the ‘social licence to operate’, which currently controls the industry’s access
to new, high quality projects (McCuaig et al., 2014; Sykes and Trench, 2014, 2016; Trench,
2014; Trench and Sykes, 2016a).
The paper is based on a scenarios workshop on the “Future of Minerals Exploration” run by
the Centre for Exploration Targeting, with a team of around twenty participants from industry
and academia gathering to build and analyse scenarios about the future of minerals
exploration. The participants were free to explore whatever issues they thought important and,
perhaps inevitably in a group dominated by scientists and engineers, futuristic technology
quickly arose: nano-technology, artificial intelligence, automation, robotics and drones were
all discussed. It was clear the group was familiar with technology and saw this as a key part of
the future of minerals exploration (and mining). However, one of the purposes of scenario
planning is to re-consider all the issues associated with an issue in a holistic manner. This
allows participants to re-balance or re-frame (Ramirez and Wilkinson, 2016) the relative
weightings of the various different factors in the situation, so that all are considered
commensurate with their importance, rather than based on the team’s knowledge or the
available data. In this case it became apparent that technology in mining and exploration
could not be discussed, without due consideration of education and skills within the industry,
and then the role of technology, education and skills within society.
Minority views and confused perceptions
Technology in the mining industry is often discussed within the context of the potential
winners and losers within mining: Which technologies will be the next big thing? Which
companies will be the winning innovators? Who will be disrupted? Which professions will
disappear? The same worries proliferate within wider society and, as driver of a substantial
amount of technological development and adoption, the mining industry also contributes to
this kind of technological disquiet. A similar situation prevails with industry attitudes to
education and skills training: Do we have the right education and skills? Do schools and
universities teach the right skills? Are we prepared for the coming technology change? Again,
these are feelings felt within wider society. As the custodian of an important share of
Australia’s scientists and engineers, the mining industry is also a source of some of the
disquiet over our intellectual preparedness for the future. Are the country’s scientists and
engineers ready to take on the future challenges, not only within the mining industry, but also
in wider society? The mining industry will be affected by societal change as much as any
other part of society.
No discussion about education in mining can ignore the wider public’s understanding (or
education) about the industry. Of particular pertinence is the apparent lack of understanding
by the populace of the importance of mining, in that the sector provides the raw materials for
most of the goods used every day. For example, a 2012 study by Hywel Jones and Maria
Hanson found that over half of the respondents in a survey of (British) students did not know
which elements were in their mobile phones. Despite this type of poor understanding, a 2014
study by CSIRO (Moffat et al., 2014) found that support for mining in Australia was broadly
positive; though admittedly there were clearly some unhappy minorities (Fig. 1). The
scenarios team summarised this situation as ‘confused perceptions’.

3. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
3
Figure 1. Acceptance of mining in Australia based on a survey of 5,121 people by Moffat et al. (2014). Australia
is broadly supportive of the mining industry, though there is still a very unhappy minority. This result perhaps
contrasts with internal mining industry perceptions that the general populace does not support the mining
industry, or that it does not understand the importance of the industry.
Moffat et al. (2014) also highlighted the linked challenges that the mining industry faces in
winning societal approval – the ‘social license to operate’ – which is made up of a collective
cost-benefit analysis of the economic, environmental and social impact of mining. When
considered, the challenge of getting a mass of different people to informally assess the
benefits and costs of a variety of complex issues relating to mining, it is easy to see how the
‘confused perceptions’ arise.
Broken promises
Some of the responsibility falls onto the mining industry for both the minority view and the
confused perceptions, at least at a collective level. Reputation is metaphorically akin to glass
– in that it takes craft and energy to build, but a moment’s mistake to shatter. In addition, the
whole industry suffers an impact upon its reputation and social licence to operate, even if not
all individuals and companies were involved in the reputation-damaging action. In the modern
mining industry no one is ignoring the potential health, safety, environmental, and social risks
associated with mining (Trench, 2014; Trench and Sykes, 2016b); these issues remain ever-
present, and increasingly, at the core of the industry. However, despite our technological
sophistication and higher levels of skills and education, terrible incidents still occur, such as at
Samarco (Vale and BHP Billiton, 2015). Similarly, anyone who has visited mining dependent
developing countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo will agree that the
industry still does not re-distribute economic benefits equitably, even if it is not entirely
within the industry’s control. The scenarios team characterised these as ‘broken promises’ –
which damaged the industry’s collective reputation, reduced trust, revoked the social license
and ultimately limited access to new prospects and opportunities for the whole industry.
The emergent aim of the scenarios workshop
The workshop tried to link together the confused perceptions and broken promises with
technology, skills and education. The insight that arose was that mining and exploration
technology, education and skills can not only be a force for uncertainty in wider society, but

4. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
4
also as a force for good within society. They could be used as a way of building trust,
reputation, support and ultimately ‘social license’. This therefore became the aim of the
workshop – to explore how education and technology from within the mining industry could
be used to minimise the social and environmental footprint of the industry and thus when
effectively communicated, build trust within society and develop a stronger social license.
The re-balancing or re-framing (Ramirez and Wilkinson, 2016) approach of scenarios
strategising surfaces the underlying, and thus most interesting (Ramirez et al., 2015),
problems for discussion. In this workshop the scenarios team probably found the biggest,
most complicated problem the mining industry faces – the amorphous ‘social licence to
operate’.
Methodology
Scenarios can be used for multiple purposes (Ramirez, 2008). Most commonly scenarios are
discussed within the context of strategic planning – generating multiple, plausible, or
probabilistic scenarios (Ramirez and Selin, 2014) for how the future could develop and plan
appropriately (van der Heijden, 2005; Ramirez and van der Heijden, 2007; Ramirez and
Wilkinson, 2016).
Another school of scenario planners see scenarios as a tool for social transformation – for
moving complex situations forward by developing broad support for a particular action.
Adam Kahane (2010a, 2012a,b) is the leader in this field. Kahane’s formative experiences
were with the now-famous apartheid era Mont Fleur scenarios (Kahane, 2010b) for the future
of South Africa post-apartheid, envisioning three futures for the country to avoid (Ostrich,
Lame Duck and Icarus) and one desired future (Flight of the Flamingos). From this
transformative scenarios were born (Kahane, 2012a,b). Another scenario planner, Clem
Sunter, also became involved in these transformative scenario planning exercises in South
Africa – this time however the scenarios started out as strategic scenarios, even though they
evolved into a more transformative role eventually. Clem Sunter was an executive at Anglo
American in the 1980s, then a part of the white elite, and was thus strategically concerned
about impending political change in the country. As part of his strategic planning efforts, he
developed two scenarios for the post-apartheid future of South Africa – known as the ‘High
Road’ and the ‘Low Road’ (Ilbury and Sunter, 2011; Sunter, 2016). As the names suggest, the
former involved a focus on reconciliation and movement forward united as a country towards
a fair and prosperous future. The latter envisioned a future characterised by revenge, feuding,
and a battle over a shrinking pie, leaving some better off temporarily, but all worse off in the
long run. The scenarios were presented to both F.W. de Clerk and Nelson Mandela before the
end of apartheid, and became part of the national conversation about how the nation should
conduct itself in the future. These scenarios were thought to have had some influence on the
chosen option of ‘truth and reconciliation’ by the country’s new leaders – a ‘high road’
approach.
Instead of generating equally plausible futures as with strategic scenario planning;
transformative scenario planning envisages explicitly good and bad futures, with the aim of
galvanising collaboration in moving towards the ‘good’ future or ‘high road’. This is
something akin to the intervention required in the Prisoners Dilemma (Freedman, 2015).
Without the ability to communicate the two prisoners will take the ‘low road’, blaming each
other in the hope to save themselves – inevitably they both end up worse off. If however, they
can communicate, trust each other, and work together, they both end up better off – the ‘high
road’.

5. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
5
The “Future of Minerals Exploration” scenarios programme
This paper covers the results of Stage 3 (of 4) of the Centre for Exploration Targeting “Future
of Minerals Exploration” scenarios programme. Like the other stages of the programme the
aim of the Stage 3 scenarios workshop was also strategic, with the aim of developing
plausible futures and making high-level strategic exploration targeting decisions based upon
them. However, like Clem Sunter’s High Road-Low Road scenarios, the emergent process of
the workshop moved from strategic scenario planning to transformative scenario planning, as
the workshop participants began to realise that collaborative efforts were required to bring
about a positive future for the exploration industry.
The other scenarios generated in Stage 1 (Trench and Sykes, 2015a,b,c,d, 2016b; Sykes and
Trench, 2016) and Stage 2 (Trench and Sykes, 2016a) of the scenarios programme also had a
dichotomic battle between cyclical and structural forces – something that characterised this
Stage 3 workshop as well. In the Stage 1 scenarios there was a battle between extracting rents
from existing assets during the ups and downs of the mining industry cycle, as opposed to
trying to break the cycle by discovering new world class mines and developing new mining
innovations, which could disrupt the industry. Four scenarios were generated, in some the
cycle was broken and structural changes were embraced, in others this was not the case. The
Stage 2 scenarios looked at the energy transition, with one scenario focusing on the cycles of
our ‘old’ fossil fuel economy, versus an inevitable transition to new forms of energy, where
the uncertainties were both when the transition would occur and what the world would look
like post-energy transition.
The Stage 3 scenarios described in this paper also looked at cyclical and structural factors, but
this time instead of trying to assess strategically how structural changes may occur, and what
the implications may be, the focus was on making the change – exploring what would happen
if we do not break the cycle and what happens if we do. The cycle in this case is the cycles of
inequality in societies, and frequent revolutions of the masses against the elites, be it
revolution of the bloody or peaceful sort, where the mining companies are part of the elite and
thus benefit or suffer in line with the political winds of the time (Trench and Sykes, 2016c;
Fig. 2).
The next section describes the scenarios and is then followed by a discussion of the strategic
implications of the scenarios, and in particular the actions that need to be taken by explorers
to position themselves well in both scenarios, but also, more importantly, to start moving the
industry towards the more positive scenario of the two.

6. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
6
Figure 2. The systemic interaction of the two scenarios described in this paper (the Stage 3 scenarios).
The Stage 3 scenarios
A Tale of Two Peoples: Trapped in a cycle
“A Tale of Two Peoples begins with Thomas Pikkety’s (2014) observation of increasing
inequality both within societies and between societies. As professionals in the mining industry
we are part of the well-paid, wealthy elite, still generally in the developed nations (though
admittedly for many in Australia’s mining industry it may not feel like you are part of the
‘wealthy elite’ at the moment1
).
In this scenario, the ‘elites’ of this society who manage the commercial and political
institutions are also able to control the mining industry to gain access to large volumes of low
cost commodities for a wide range of low cost commercial goods. Mining in this manner
however can come at a cost to local people and environments, with the economic externalities
sufficiently detached from the elites that they do not suffer the consequences of local minerals
extraction. Non-scientists amongst the elites do not even know where the metals and minerals
in their consumer goods come from (Jones and Hanson, 2012). Mining occurs in the places
that the elites in society value the least, and does not occur in those places that the elites
value the most, regardless of whether they live there or not – a kind of environmental
inequity, where only the rich can afford a clean environment (perhaps exemplified by the
recent stalling of coal mine projects in the wealthy areas of Margaret River (ABC News,
2012) and the Hunter Valley (ABC News, 2016)).
Over time this leads to greater division in society, somewhat akin to the ‘capital city’ and
districts of the Hunger Games (Collins, 2010), with a wealthy, safe, technologically
sophisticated urban elite, in contrast to deprived outer regions with a focus on mining and
other primary industries. Ever-larger mega-mining companies and operations have grown to
feed the desires of the urban elites. Mining technology is focused on incremental
improvements to facilitate greater scale. The workforce is divided sharply between fly-in fly-
out, often ex-pat professionals and local manual workers (another potential problem
indicated by Moffatt et al., 2014). The largest mines are focused on the poorest areas, and

7. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
7
cause ever-more devastation, whilst the mining companies are administered from the cities
by the elite.
Inevitably, such a situation leads to revolution. Countries fall apart as the poorer districts
secede and then nationalise their mining industries. The mega-mining corporations collapse.
However, with a lack of technological sophistication the regions are forced to mine using
primitive methods, with old mines sites overrun by artisanal miners. The whole of society is
worse off as a result. Scenes reminiscent of post-colonial mining in Africa are once again
common. As technology and education is gradually re-developed however, a new elite
develops, which is once again able to globalise, technologically advance and scale up the
mining industry for its own economic good. Society begins to divide again…”
iWorld: Breaking the cycle
“The iWorld scenario, drawing influence from the eponymous company, breaks the cycle of
revolution described in the ‘Two Peoples’ scenario.
In a world where open source technologies, such as Wikipedia, Linux and even Wikileaks,
along with social media are democratising information, society is able to move forward as a
collective whole. This techno-driven move towards utopia is optimised by giant, multi-
national collaborative research projects, such as the Large Hadron Collider, that reflect an
exploration-orientated society – focused on what is not known (Kahane, 2012a), rather than
an extraction orientated society – focused on what is known. Global society builds on
institutions such as the United Nations, to spread education and technological development
across the world. An increasingly well-educated and wealthy society creates a positive
feedback of technological innovation, wealth creation and distribution. Society becomes
wealthier, fairer and more sophisticated as one. Genuine shared value between business and
the populace is created (Porter and Kramer, 2011).
The mining industry benefits from this technological sophistication with the global intellect
helping the industry simultaneously become safer, reduce its socio-economic and
environmental footprint, and increase its volume of economic output. The mining industry is
recognised as a key part of the global economy, helping the flow of raw materials around the
world, whilst remaining a steward of those local areas in which it operates. Mining
companies are ‘glocal’. This link between local operations and international ambitions makes
mining companies a key part of the socio-economic ladder, giving everyone the opportunity to
succeed.
Such a global society is then able to take on endeavours of a colossal scale, with space
exploration and colonization a potential reality. This could be seen as a more ‘Star Trek’ like
scenario – with a united world ‘boldly going where no one has gone before’.”
Discussion
Scenario planner and business strategist, Kees van der Heijden (2005) classifies corporate
strategy into three competing paradigms: rationalist, evolutionary and processual. Rationalism
is the traditional domain of strategy with predictable environments, where a ‘best’ strategic
solution can be determined and then enacted in a so-called ‘do loop’, thus the authors of this
paper prefer to think of this as ‘deterministic’ strategy. The scenario planning exercises
described in this paper were undertaken precisely because, in the view of the researchers, the

8. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
8
future of minerals exploration cannot be ‘determined’ and thus ‘deterministic strategy’ will
not work.
More recently, as knowledge about the true complexity of business environments increased,
and perhaps also as strategists moved out of the relatively predictable and dominant American
corporate sector of the mid-twentieth century, evolutionary strategy became more influential.
Evolutionary strategy posits that the world is so complicated and unpredictable that a winning
strategy can only be realised in retrospect, thus organisations must constantly react to
unpredicted events to survive.
A criticism of evolutionary strategy is that it leaves individuals and organisations somewhat
strategically impotent. This is most likely not the case, companies and even individuals have
some ability to shape the future, even if it is generally uncertain. Van der Heijden (2005)
therefore suggests a third paradigm of processual strategy which combines elements of both
rationalist/deterministic strategy and evolutionary strategy. It is dubbed processual, because a
key component of the approach is developing processes within organisations which enable
flexibility and adaptation, thus the authors prefer to think of this as ‘adaptive strategy’.
Organisations that adopt adaptive strategy aim to take control of the issues prevailing on them
from the outside world which reduce their strategic space (e.g. increasing health and safety,
environmental and socio-political issues) and start to turn these problems into new
opportunities – new strategic space which only you can enter (Ramirez and van der Heijden,
2007). Scenario planning plays a key role in the processual or adaptive strategic paradigm
(Van der Heijden, 2005). When a collective effort is required to successfully implement a
processual strategy, then the situation begins to drift towards a ‘Prisoners Dilemma’ type
problem, and potentially a situation where transformative scenario planning becomes
more useful.
A mining industry example of successful processual strategy may already exist in a cluster of
exploration companies who have managed to turn the increasing requirements of health and
safety to their advantage. By developing sophisticated safety systems, equivalent to those run
by major mining companies, some junior minerals explorers have become the preferred
partners of major mining companies in exploration joint venturing. Such a reputation allows
these junior exploration companies access to funds and prospects unavailable to their
competitors. Potentially an equivalent strategic approach may exist for the apparently access-
restricting environmental, sustainability and socio-political issues, which are currently
affecting the exploration industry – this became the key discussion point of the scenarios
described in this paper.
Adapting to the future with processual exploration strategy
Both of the scenarios developed in stage three and presented in this paper are somewhat
fantastical.2
The most realistic scenario is that elements of these scenarios will play out at a
local level, at different times and places in the future – sometimes it will feel like you, or your
company, are in the ‘Two Peoples’ scenario, and sometimes in the ‘iWorld’ scenario. Large
companies may even feel that they are in both in different places at the same time.
The two scenarios generated suggest a number of implications for exploration teams. Firstly,
on a strategic level, companies and explorers, must realise locally when they are in the ‘Two
Peoples’ scenario. If they are in this scenario and not heavily committed to the area that they
are working in, then they need to remove themselves from it. If they are committed to the area
then they need to change the scenario (into the iWorld scenario), where technology and

9. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
9
education may be an enabler of this change. From an investment appraisal perspective, areas
that are in an ‘iWorld’ scenario are potentially better investments. As with the other scenario
sets in Stages 1 and 2, in the scenario set described here, companies (and individuals) have to
be able to survive in all scenarios. As such strategies must be robust to all scenarios, even if
some scenarios are more preferable to others.
Both scenarios require work forces that are competent at collaboration – at all levels, perhaps
best described as a ‘zipper’ approach to collaboration where connections are effective at all
levels of the organisational hierarchy (Fig. 3). In the ‘Two Peoples’ scenario this is in
genuinely working with people on the ground, who are the key to your land access and local
acceptance, thereby gaining social license to operate. In the ‘iWorld’ scenario collaboration is
at a grander scale with multinational organisations and governments on collective projects.
Finally, as with all futures, both scenarios require a certain amount of technological savvy. In
the ‘iWorld’ scenario this is grand-scale technology and sweeping change, which must be
kept up with and embraced. It is also likely that technology will play a crucial role in enabling
the communication required for such large-scale collaborative projects. In the ‘Two Peoples’
scenario, a world with little effective technology transfer and plagued by distrust, it is more of
‘boot-strapping’ and local re-invention of technology, which is likely to occur – how do you
make things work where you are, with what you have locally?
Figure 3. The ‘zipper’ analogy of collaboration where connections are effective
at all levels of the organisational hierarchy.
The capabilities described in the previous paragraphs, with the exploration industry as the
vanguard of the mining industry, can be described as a movement towards ‘big exploration’
and away from ‘small exploration’ (Trench, 2016). ‘Small exploration’ focuses only on
finding new deposits and resources, and is what the industry does now. The larger concept of
‘big exploration’ also draws value from explorers who are typically the first contact with local
communities and governments, and as a technology and innovation hothouse. This re-
definition of exploration’s role in the supply chain is an important step in creating ‘shared
value’ between business and society (Porter and Kramer, 2011).

10. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
10
Changing the future with transformative exploration strategy
The above description is an example of ‘adaptive’ strategy, however, still somewhat
individualistic in its approach. In theory it could allow a successful exploration company to
open up new strategic search space for itself – based on a strong socio-political and
environmental reputation. However, as discussed in the introduction, the whole industry
suffers reputational damage when a negative incident occurs, regardless of whether an
individual or company was involved in the incident, or whether it had better ‘processes’ or
not. This presents a ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’ type situation and thus the type of transformational
scenario-based strategy described in this paper maybe required (Kahane, 2012a,b).
Thus, at a global level, the mining industry probably needs to work harder at moving the
world towards an ‘iWorld’ scenario. Potentially this could be done by encouraging a better
educated and technologically sophisticated society, which is both able to conduct mining in a
more societally acceptable way, and appreciates the value of mining as a contributor to
material society. Programmes such as Earth Science Western Australia (ESWA, 2016) and the
positive use of social media (Mullard, 2010) would be important in bringing about this
scenario. The insight that technology and innovation, as used in the iWorld scenarios, is in
itself a key part of building industry reputation and establishing social licence only reinforces
the idea of ‘big exploration’ or perhaps ‘even bigger exploration’. Such an effort therefore
requires explorers to be able to clearly explain what they are doing and justify their societal
value. In the future, it may be that the importance of getting ‘boots on the ground’ is not just
geological but socio-political.
Final thought
The implication of the scenario set described in this paper is that as exploration professionals
we not only need to be more technologically sophisticated, something we all realise, but that
we must also be more socially-well attuned and effective communicators, with a genuine
understanding of our place in society. It is a movement from corporate social responsibility
(CSR) to ‘creating shared value’ (CSV) as advocated by leading management theorists
Michael Porter and Mark Kramer (2011). Creating shared value by ‘big exploration’ could
open up access to new opportunities and search space (or at very least protection from
shrinking opportunities and search space).
Currently as exploration professionals, mainly with science and engineering backgrounds, we
are probably not fully prepared for this. This raises the question of whether we should we be
working with new types of professionals, better enabled to deal with societal engagement
issues, or should we be better educating our science and engineering professionals to deal
with this? Individuals, companies and professional associations, such as the AusIMM, are all
responsible in making this choice.
Footnotes
1 It is sobering to realise that even an unemployed exploration geologist, living solely on ‘Newstart Allowance’
(approx. $13,700/year), with no savings or previous wealth to consume, ranks amongst the richest 20% of people
globally, even when controlling for cost of living. An exploration geologist earning $100,000/year is in the
global 1%, whilst a junior explorer CEO on $250,000 is in the global 0.1%. Figures from Giving What We Can
(2016).

11. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
11
2 However, it is worth noting that just a week after this scenario planning exercise, the ‘Two Peoples’ scenario
metaphorically played out during the Brexit Referendum in the UK, which was described by BBC Political
Journalist, Nick Robinson (2016) “as close to a revolution as we’ve experienced in my lifetime”. The losing
‘Remain’ campaign (which benefits from the status quo) was typically supported by younger, wealthier, better
educated and employed voters in the South or big cities, with support from establishment institutions such as
universities. The winning ‘Leave’ campaign (those for who all change is seen as good) was typically supported
by older, poorer, less educated and often unemployed voters in small towns and rural areas in the regions, with
the exception of a few key establishment figures leading the campaign (Burn-Murdoch, 2016). Again, in a source
unrelated to this scenarios workshop, a global version of the kind of social division and ultimately societal
breakdown envisioned in the ‘Two Peoples’ scenario was also recently described in the Templeton Prize
acceptance speech by Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks (2016).
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the efforts of the non-authoring scenario workshop team members (Aida
Carneiro, Aaron Colleran, Liz Dallimore, Deon deBruin, Edoaldo Di Dio, Chris Gonzalez, Paul Hodkiewicz,
Amy Imbergamo, Heta Lampinen, Sandra Occhipinti, Daniel Sully, Marcus Tomkinson, Will Turner, Stanislav
Ulrich and Wenchao Wan); as well as the guest presenters for the scenarios workshop: David Groves, Martin
Lynch, John Southalan and Jessica Volich. John Sykes would like to acknowledge the financial support of a
Centre for Exploration Targeting ‘Ad hoc’ Scholarship and the support of the non-authoring members of his PhD
supervisory team: Mark Jessell and Nicolas Thebaud.
References
ABC News 2012. Margaret River coal mining applications terminated, 24 July:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-24/margaret-river-coal-mining-applications-terminated/4151070.
ABC News 2016. Upper Hunter horse studs prepare to oppose plans to revive mothballed mines, 11 April:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/hunter-horse-studs-vow-to-fight-plans-to-revive-mothballed-
mines/7138418?site=upperhunter.
Burn-Murdoch, J. 2016. Brexit: voter turnout by age, Financial Times, 24 June:
http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/24/brexit-demographic-divide-eu-referendum-results.
Collins, S. 2010. The Hunger Games. Scholastic Press, New York, 384 p.
Earth Science Western Australia (ESWA), 2016: http://www.earthsciencewa.com.au/
Freedman, L. 2015. Strategy: a history. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 768 p.
Giving What We Can 2016. How rich am I?: https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/get-involved/how-rich-am-i.
Ilbury, C. and Sunter, C. 2012. The mind of a fox: scenario planning in action. Human & Rousseau, Cape Town,
146 p.
Jones, H. and Hanson, M. 2012. Raising public awareness of materials scarcity through materials science and
contemporary jewellery, Franco-British Workshop on Strategic Metals, London, 11-12 June.
Kahane, A. 2010a. Learning from the experience: the Mont Fleur scenario exercise, ReosPartners:
http://reospartners.com/learning-from-experience-the-mont-fleur-scenario-exercise.
Kahane, A. 2010b. Power and love: a theory and practice of social change. Berrett-Koehler Publishers,
Oakland, CA, 168 p.
Kahane, A. 2012a. Transformative scenario planning: changing the future by exploring alternatives. Strategy and
Leadership 40(5):19-23.
Kahane, A. 2012b. Transformative scenario planning: working together to change the future. Berrett-Koehler
Publishers, Oakland, CA, 168 p.
McCuaig, T.C., Vann, J.E. Sykes, J.P. 2014. Mines versus mineralisation – deposit quality, mineral exploration
strategy and the role of ‘Boundary Spanners’. AIG & AusIMM Ninth International Mining Geology
Conference, Adelaide, 18-20 August, pp 33-41.
Moffat, K., Zhang, A. and Boughen, N. 2014. Australian attitudes toward mining: Citizen Survey – 2014
Results, CSIRO: http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/MRF/Areas/Community-and-environment/Resources-
in-the-community/Attitudes-to-mining-survey.
Mullard, Z. 2010. The application of social media in the mining industry. Unpublished MAppSc (Mining
Engineering) thesis, The University of British Colombia.
Pikkety, T. 2014. Capital in the twenty-first century. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA,
(A.Goldhammer, Translator), 696 p.

12. AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference 2016
12
Porter, M.E. and Kramer, M.R. 2011. Creating shared value. Harvard Business Review 89(1/2): 62-77.
Ramirez, R., (2008), Forty years of scenarios: retrospect and prospect. In: Mapping the management journey:
practise, theory, and context, Dopson, S., Earl, M. and Snow, P., eds, pp 307-319, Oxford University
Press, Oxford.
Ramirez, R., Mukherjee, M., Vezzoli, S. and Kramer, A.M. 2015. Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to
produce “interesting research”. Futures 71: 70-87.
Ramirez, R., and Selin, C. 2014. Plausibility and probability in scenario planning. Foresight 16(1): 54-74.
Ramirez, R., and van der Heijden, K. 2007. Scenarios to develop strategic options: a new interactive role for
scenarios in strategy. In: Scenarios for success, Sharpe, B. and van der Heijden, K., eds, pp89-119, John
Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ.
Ramirez, R. and Wilkinson, A. 2016. Strategic reframing: the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford
University Press, Oxford, 242p.
Robinson, N. 2016. This is as close to a revolution as we've experienced in my lifetime…. Twitter, 23 June:
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/746187739784052736.
Sacks, J. 2016. Speech by Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks on receiving the 2016 Templeton Prize, London, 26 May.
Sykes, J.P. and Trench, A. 2014. Finding the copper mine of the 21st century: conceptual exploration targeting
for hypothetical copper reserves. In: Special publication 18: building exploration capability for the 21st
Century, Kelley, K.D. and Golden, H.C., eds, pp 273-300, Society of Economic Geologists, Littleton,
CO.
Sykes, J.P. and Trench, A. 2016. Using scenarios to investigate the long-term future of copper mining and guide
exploration targeting strategies. AusIMM International Mine Management Conference, Brisbane, 22-24
August, in press.
Sunter, C. 2016. Managing the strategic conversation: http://www.clemsunter.co.za.
Trench, A. 2014. Strictly boardroom: the perception of mining – a social licence reality check.
MiningNewsPremium.net, 24 November: http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/the-
perception-of-mining-a-social-licence-reality-check/
Trench, A. 2016. Strictly boardroom: towards big exploration. MiningNewsPremium.net, 11 January:
http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/towards-big-exploration/
Trench, A. and Sykes, J.P. 2015a. Strictly boardroom – mining 2040: an industry under siege.
MiningNewsPremium.net, 2 November: http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/mining-
2040-an-industry-under-siege/
Trench, A. and Sykes, J.P. 2015b. Strictly boardroom – mining 2040: major miners as counting houses.
MiningNewsPremium.net, 16 November: http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/mining-
2040-major-miners-as-counting-houses/
Trench, A. and Sykes, J.P. 2015c. Strictly boardroom – mining 2040: peasants’ revolt.
MiningNewsPremium.net, 23 November: http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/mining-
2040-peasants-revolt/
Trench, A. and Sykes, J.P. 2015d. Strictly boardroom – mining 2040: the commodity crusades.
MiningNewsPremium.net, 9 November: http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/mining-
2040-an-industry-under-siege/
Trench, A. and Sykes, J.P. 2016a., Strictly boardroom – re-designing mineral explorers for an uncertain future.
MiningNewsPremium.net, 13 June: http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/re-designing-
mineral-explorers-for-an-uncertain-future/
Trench, A. and Sykes, J.P. 2016b. Strictly (mining) boardroom: volume II – a practitioners guide for next
generation Directors. Major Street Publishing, Highett, VIC, 294 p.
Trench, A. Sykes, J.P. 2016c., Strictly boardroom – the light and dark side of education and technology.
MiningNewsPremium.net, 4 July: http://www.miningnews.net/insight/strictly-boardroom/the-light-and-
dark-side-of-education-and-technology/
Vale and BHP Billiton 2015. Joint statement by Vale and BHP Billiton, 11 November:
http://www.bhpbilliton.com/investors/news/joint-statement-by-vale-and-bhp-billiton
van der Heijden, K. 2005. Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ,
382 p.