Calvert Home Mortgage provides a simplified breakdown of statistics and and information from the Calgary and Edmonton real estate markets and how they are affecting current home prices. You will also find the most recent statistics available for key Economic Fundamentals that influence the lending industry and real estate markets in Alberta.
1. Total Residential
Single Family
Apartment Condo
Attached
2015
Total Residential
Single Family
Apartment Condo
Attached
- Calgary Real Estate Market -
REPORTING PERIOD: from the 1st of May, 2015 to the last day of May, 2015
Real Estate and Economic Report
Sales New Listings
Sales to New
Listings Ratio
Active Listings Average Price
AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
5,342 ‐30.72% 478,780$ ‐0.98%2,190 ‐44.15% 3,161 ‐47.64% 69.28% 6.67%
1,366 ‐32.54% 1,879 ‐36.20% 72.70% 5.73% 2,913 ‐0.21% 541,582$ ‐2.36%
359 ‐29.75% 611 ‐24.00% 58.76% ‐7.55% 1,293 23.03% 328,531$ 3.98%
465 122.49% 671 16.09% 69.30% 91.65% 1,136 114.74% 410,336$ 13.49%
YEAR TO DATE (2015): from January, 2015 to May, 2015
TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
8,026 ‐43.72% 15,599 ‐28.35% 51.60% ‐20.81% 5,349 ‐2.96% 469,302$ ‐1.12%
AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
4,871 ‐35.12% 8,946 ‐17.66% 54.31% ‐21.04% 2,881 36.46% 537,290$ ‐1.71%
1,428 ‐31.18% 3,318 3.27% 44.08% ‐31.33% 1,285 66.93% 329,874$ ‐2.66%
1,510 9.34% 2,740 24.72% 55.35% ‐14.50% 1,151 192.90% 407,584$ 12.38%
In Feb. 2015 the Calgary Real Estate Board put the statisitics for semi‐detached homes and row townhouses together in a group called
"Attached". Apartment condo's and attached homes account for the highest year over year increase in listings not single family homes. In
fact for the month of May Single Family home active listings were dowm ‐0.21% year over year for the month of May.
Even with lower sales and lower listings the annual cycle looks the same. There is no glaring diversion from the annual cycle as of
yet other than the lower sales and lower listings. July may see new listings increase as expried contracts come due and re-list.
Even with the slight dip in the average single family home price we are still way ahead of where average prices for single family
homes were in 2013. The next few months will clarify if we are to stay on a downward trend or hold steady.
$459,035 $465,202 $479,880
$517,333
$552,276 $537,290
$250,000
$350,000
$450,000
$550,000
$650,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Calgary)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Single Family Home Comparisons (Calgary)
Sales (Total) New Listings (Total) Active Listings (Avg.)
2. Total Residential
Single Family
Condo
Townhouse
2015
Total Residential
Single Family
Condo
Townhouse
Sales to New
Listings Ratio
Average Price
- Edmonton Real Estate Market -
TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE
REPORTING PERIOD: from May, 2015 to May, 2015
Sales New Listings
Y/Y%
1,784 ‐9.85% 3,314 ‐2.18% 53.83% ‐7.84% 381,111$
TOTAL Y/Y%
2.48%
1,078 ‐11.13% 1,974 ‐5.32% 55.00% ‐5.17% 451,312$ 1.73%
510 ‐9.73% 1,047 5.86% 49.00% ‐14.04% 256,143$ 1.77%
165 4.43% 219 ‐3.95% 75.00% 8.70% 345,659$ ‐1.61%
TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
YEAR TO DATE (2015): from January, 2015 to May, 2015
AVERAGE Y/Y%
6,431 ‐13.25% 14,483 14.03% 43.17% ‐25.27%
TOTAL Y/Y%
371,242$ 2.56%
3,892 ‐13.68% 8,547 11.87% 44.20% ‐24.57% 437,356$ 1.80%
1,832 ‐16.61% 4,482 15.63% 40.20% ‐27.96% 251,225$ 3.06%
586 5.97% 1,097 30.29% 53.40% ‐17.85%
We are currently sitting at the same average days on market as existed in the summer of 2014 when the market was extremely
hot. Will July and August put the heat on stale listings or will homes ride the heat wave?
The lower total sales have not impacted the price range people are buying in. The price range to sales is proportionatly the same
year over year. Where the two graphs meet may indicate that homes previously priced from $600-$649 have moved down one
price category pushing sales up for the $550-$599 price range.
Edmonton sales have seen a slight drop off compared to a market that was heating up in 2014. The brakes were applied before
prices went to crazy and the leveling off has had a softer effect than on overall numbers compared to Calgary.
358,513$ 6.13%
0
20
40
60
Average Days on Market (Calgary)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
> $100 $100 ‐
$199
$200 ‐
$299
$300 ‐$
349
$350 ‐
$399
$400 ‐
$449
$450 ‐
$499
$500 ‐
$549
$550 ‐
$599
$600 ‐
$649
$650 ‐
$699
$700 ‐
$799
$800 ‐
$899
$900 ‐
$999
$1M +
2014
2015
Current Month Sale Price Range (Calgary)
3. The annual cycle appears to be continuing on the same path as in prior years. As in previous years listings spiked in January and
March, however, they have levelled off compared to previous years.
Since 2011 the average home price in Edmonton has increased an average of just over 4% per year since 2011 with a high of
5.4% from 2013-2014
Days on market have levelled off settling at 41 days which is a reasonable amount of time that provides some balance.
$383,226 $379,485
$392,446
$409,438
$431,707
$437,356
$340,000
$360,000
$380,000
$400,000
$420,000
$440,000
$460,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Edmonton)
543
737
989
1,084
1,264
1,136
941
854
773
782
623
419
528
648
923
1,022
1,179
1,198
1,125
983
857
863
673
436
485
747
917
1,147
1,213
1,218
1,092
924
967
850
717
439
390
547
876
1,001
1,078
1,155
1,354
1,737
1,663
1,943
1,627
1,455
1,380
1,266
1,082
769
409
955
1,115
1,467
1,569
1,911
1,586
1,491
1,349
1,268
1,059
783
415
1,070
1,082
1,585
1,818
2,085
1,828
1,602
1,353
1,337
1,256
794
534
1,298
1,428
1,883
1,964
1,974
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Single Family Home Comparisons (Edmonton)
Sales (Total) New Listings (Total)
0
50
100
Average Days on Market (Edmonton)
4. Real GDP Change
2015Q1
Unemployment Rate
May-15
Retail Sales Growth
Apr. 2015
Job Vacancies
2015
Employees have continued to earn more money even as the Alberta Economy has slowed. This will be a good number to watch
over the next 6 months to indicate the strength of business profits in Alberta during economic recovery.
The last six months has seen a trend of closing the gap between the price in United States dollars of West Texas Iintermediate
(WTI) Oil and Western Canadian Select (WCS) bitumen. This is a big benefit of the majority of Alberta producers as WCS is what
is mostly produced in Alberta and shipped out at the US dollar rate and then converted to Candian Dollars. This means that
currently the price for WCS in Canadian dollars is about $65 per barrel, with the low Canadian dollar the Alberta producers are
feeling the benefit.
- Alberta Economic Indicators -
in Alberta
-25.68%
*the following information is based on current available data from: http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/, www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/ and RBC Economic
Outlook.
Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y%
Net Migration to AB
7,723 2.20%
Apr-15
34,100 1%
-0.13%
in Canada
3.30%
in Canada 954.07$
13,560 -6.43%
2.80%
1,531
Weekly Earnings
April 2015
in Canada
0.60%
-0.60%
-86.36%
-130.00%
in Alberta
in Alberta
5.80%
in Canada
-8.70%
-2.09%
-2.20%
1.71%
in Alberta -1.42%
in Canada
-158.00%
-231.24%
6.80%
11.54%
-4.23%
1,177.00$
in Alberta
Housing starts
May-15
Mortgage
Foreclosures Feb. 15
in Alberta
in Canada
$990.98
$1,034.17
$1,070.47
$1,107.97
$1,149.18
$1,177.00
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Alberta's Average Weekly Earnings
$‐
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
WCS OIL PRICES
WTI OIL PRICES
WTI‐WCS Price Differential
WTI and WCS Pricing and Price Differential (US$)
5. Notes:
http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/
http://www.creb.com/
http://www.ereb.com/REALTORSAssociationOfEdmonton.html
http://www.capp.ca/Pages/default.aspx
http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html
http://www.cba.ca/en/component/content/publication/69-statistics
http://www.finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/fsr-december2014.pdf
Resources
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-data/index.html
Housing prices in Canada have had more growth than income.
Low mortgage rates continue to stimulate the Canadian real estate market.
CND resale of homes has picked up in Toronto and Vancouver while they have declined in Calgary and Edmonton.
Oil and gas is employing 550,000 jobs across Canada, and 440,000 in Alberta either directly or indirectly
2013 oil and gas sector accounted for 20% of the TSX, and $69 billion in capital spending. (Statistics are from CAPP)
121,500 Albertans are directly employed in mining, oil and gas extraction sectors
Bank of Canada is monitoring 3 key factors with relation to the financial system:
1. Elevated level of household indebtedness
The current price of Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude in in Canadian dollars is trading at $10 more than the price of WCS in
January of 2013, however, compared to one year ago WCS is trading at about 31% less(US$).
2. Imbalance in the householder market
3. Investor risk taking and illiquidity in financial markets
Historically the HPI shows how Edmonton follows Calgary for price increases and decreases by about 6 months, however, that
trend broke off in 2014 likely due to the drop in oil prices. During the same 10 year period the TSX100 only increased 50%
compared to the 110% for Calgary and the 80% for Edmonton showing that real estate continues to perform stronger than the
stock market. The difference is even more drastic since 2002.
Other Bank of Canada comments:
0
50
100
150
200
250
Calgary Home Price Index
Edmonton Home Price Index
Home Price Index Comparision