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2018 Annual Economic Forecast
Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
PRESENTING SPONSOR
EVENT PARTNERS
2
The forecasts and commentary do
not constitute an official viewpoint
of Old Dominion University, its
President, John R. Broderick, the
Board of Visitors, the Strome
College of Business, or the
generous donors who support the
activities of the Dragas Center for
Economic Analysis and Policy and
the Economic Forecasting Project.
2018 National and Virginia
Economic Forecast
Accelerating Growth,
Increasing Risk
Professor Robert McNab
January 31, 2018
Current and Historical Expansions
5
Expansion Duration
In months
Annual
Employment
Growth
Annual
Real GDP Growth
October 1949 – July 1953 45 4.35% 6.14%
May 1954 – August 1957 39 2.51% 3.67%
April 1958 – April 1960 24 3.58% 4.86%
February 1961 – December 1969 106 3.23% 4.68%
November 1970 – November 1973 36 3.38% 4.60%
March 1975 – January 1980 58 3.52% 4.01%
December 1982 – July 1990 91 2.81% 3.81%
March 1991 – March 2001 120 2.01% 3.45%
November 2001 – December 2007 73 0.88% 2.66%
June 2009 – Present* 103 1.38% 2.14%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in 2017 Q3. Average
annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S. Q4 and VA Q3 are advance estimates. VA Q4 is our forecast.
Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth
3.1% 3.2%
2.6%
1.5%
2.3%
1.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
United States and Virginia, 2010 - 2017 Q4
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
6
7
129,733
147,380
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
ThousandsofJobs Total Nonfarm Employment
United States, January 2007 – December 2017
+ 17.65 Million Jobs
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough was February 2010.
3,596.1
3,966.5
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
ThousandsofJobs Total Nonfarm Employment
Virginia, January 2007 - December 2017
8
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough is February 2010.
+400,400 Jobs
9Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008. Peak employment for Virginia was April 2008.
Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017. December 2017 data are preliminary. Data measure the number of reported jobs by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.
6.47%
4.69%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
101
105
109
113
117
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Virginia and the United States, 2008-2017
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. December 2017 data are preliminary.
10
4.6%
10.0%
4.1%
3.0%
7.4%
3.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Virginia and United States, January 2007 - December 2017
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented.
11
10.1%
8.2%
16.7%
8.5%
6.8%
6.0%
12.9%
7.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6)
Virginia and the United States, 2003-2017
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
3,770
5,461
7,460
9,351
10,911
4,782
7,991
6,061
368
19,560
1,549
11,411
18,263
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Dec
2016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
2017
Apr
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Jul
2017
Aug
2017
Sep
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Individuals Month-to-Month Change in Labor Force
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
4,402
8,280
13,35813,836
10,304
4,697
8,438
5,331
230
22,158
475
12,832
16,746-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Dec
2016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
2017
Apr
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Jul
2017
Aug
2017
Sep
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jobs Month-to-Month Change in Employment
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
13
14
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
63.7%
62.7%
77.9%
69.0%
51.5%
57.0%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
United States, January 1980 – December 2017
Overall Men Women
15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
71.5%
69.7%
65.3%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
1976
1977
1978
1979
1981
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
Labor Force Participation Rate
Virginia, January 1976 to December 2017
16
Source: Office of Management and Budget and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars.
$236
$128
$158
$378 $413
$318
$248
$161
$459
$1,413
$1,294
$1,300
$1,087
$680
$485 $438
$585
$666
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Federal Deficit in Billions of Dollars
17
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment. 2017 is through the 3rd quarter.
9.53%
6.52%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP
United States, 1950-2017*
18
32.56
44.20
33.60
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1881
1885
1889
1893
1897
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio
Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index
January 1881 – January 2018
Source: Robert Schiller, Irrational Exuberance. Prices and earnings are in January 2000 dollars. Data as of January 16th, 2018 market close. For further information: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
19
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. 2017 US is an advance estimate. 2017 VA and 2018 are our forecasts.
2.2%
1.7%
2.6%
2.9%
1.5%
2.3%
3.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.2%
2.2%
0.5%
1.7%
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
Virginia and the United States, 2012-2018
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
20
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0%
Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1%
Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8%
Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9%
Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2%
3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0%
10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2%
30-year Treasury Bill -- 2.8% 3.6%
30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0%
Federal Deficit --- -$655 Billion -$750 Billion
Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 1.7% 2.2%
Virginia Employment Growth --- 1.4% 1.3%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. 2017 VA GDP is an estimate based on the first 3 quarters. Data are rounded to nearest tenth.
2018 Hampton
Roads
Economic
Forecast
Stagnant
Growth,
Improving
Future?
Professor Vinod
Agarwal
January 31, 2018
2018 Hampton Roads
Economic Forecast
Stagnant Growth,
Improving Future?
Professor Vinod Agarwal
January 31, 2018
1.62%
2.17%
1.49%
2.25%2.12%
-0.04% -1.09%
0.80%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2001 to 2009 2009 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017e
Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP
Hampton Roads and the United States
United States Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September
2017. US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates.
22
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July 2007.
Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017 (US and VA) and November 2017 (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs.
6.47%
4.69%
-2.25%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
101
105
109
113
117
121
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, 2008-2017
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Defense Spending
in Hampton Roads
$522
$574
$584 $581
$490
$500
$510
$520
$530
$540
$550
$560
$570
$580
$590
DoD Budget
Control Act Cap
POTUS Request House
Appropriations
Senate
Appropriations
BillionsofDollarsDoD Base Budget Cap, Request, and Appropriations Bills
Fiscal Year 2018
Sources: Budget Control Act of 2011, FY 2018 Presidential Budget Request, U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement.
Data for 2016 are estimates and data for 2017 are forecasts.
10.0
19.5 19.2 19.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
BillionsofDollarsEstimated Direct DoD Spending
Hampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
26
Estimated Average Compensation
Hampton Roads, Selected Categories
27
2015 2016
Change in
Compensation
Military $91,561 $92,189 0.69%
Federal Civilian Govt.
Employees
$107,322 $109,624 2.15%
State and Local Govt.
Employees
$62,602 $64,164 2.49%
Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41,751 -1.04%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits.
Where are the jobs?
706.6
775.5
737.1
771.8 769.4
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
ThousandsofJobs Average Annual Civilian Jobs
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018
Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
-11
-7
-6
-5
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
1
1
4
19
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Construction
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Information
Real Estate
Admin and Support
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
Management of Companies
Professional and Scientific
Transportation and Warehousing
Accomodation and Food
Health Care and Social Assistance
Change in Private Sector Employment
Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1
746
827
846 835 838
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
ThousandsofIndividuals Civilian Labor Force
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
721
792
797 796 803
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
ThousandsofIndividuals Number of Individuals Employed
Hampton Roads, 1999 to 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November 2017.
4.1%
3.7%
4.3%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States
January 2007-December 2017*
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Residential Housing
is Looking Up
$1,338
$551
$978
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
MillionsofDollars Value of Building Permits for One-Unit Family Homes
Hampton Roads, 1991-2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
14,703
23,492
2,265
3,228
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Existing and New Construction Home Sales
Hampton Roads, 2010-2017
Existing Homes New Construction
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
15.8%
49.0%
29.0%
4.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type
Hampton Roads, 2000-2017
FHA VA Conventional Cash
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
$116,900
$223,000
$180,000
$219,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Sales Price of Existing Homes
Hampton Roads, 2002-2017
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 2002-2007 = 91% increase. 2011-2017 is a 22% increase.
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected
Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017
39Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
* Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950
City
Median Price
2007
Median Price
2017
% change
Chesapeake $250,100 $245,000 -2.0%
Norfolk $195,000 $183,500 -5.9%
Portsmouth $165,500 $140,000 -15.4%
Suffolk** $257,500 $240,000 -6.8%
Virginia Beach $245,000 $247,500 +1.2%
Hampton $180,000 $155,000 -13.9%
Newport News $199,250 $170,000 -14.7%
Williamsburg* $284,450 $283,000 -0.5%
Hampton Roads $223,000 $219,000 -1.8%
0.2%
7.1%
3.6%1.2%
26.6%
8.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Hampton Roads, 2006-2017
Short Sales REO Sales
Hotel Industry
$520.2
$708.3
$645.3
$803.1
$841.6
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MillionsofDollars Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads
2000-2017
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
4.9%
3.9%
4.8%
3.0% 2.9%
4.9%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Growth in Hotel Revenue and Revenue Per Available Room
United States, Virginia, and Hampton Roads, 2016-2017
Hotel Revenue Revenue per Available Room
0.16%
4.15%
14.43%
3.85%
5.81%
4.80%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Williamsburg Market
Virginia Beach
Norfolk/Portsmouth
Newport News/Hampton
Chesapeake/Suffolk
Hampton Roads
Growth in Hotel Revenue
Hampton Roads, 2016 to 2017
Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg.
Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms
$0.42
$2.16
$5.88
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MillionsofDollars Monthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads
2015-2017
2015 2016 2017
Port of Virginia:
Growing rapidly
17.83
18.84
21.97
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MillionsofTons General Cargo Tonnage
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
1,348
2,128
1,745
2,224
2,841
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ThousandsofTEUs Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs)
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
0.33
0.39
0.43 0.45 0.48
0.55 0.57
0.77
0.82 0.84
0.93
0.98 0.95
1.04
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MillionsofContainers Movement of Containers by Type of Transportation
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
Rail Barge & Truck
50
1,158 1,201
1,307 1,341
1,410
1,514
1,798
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NumberofTEUs Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
51
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Initial Forecast
1.4% -- --
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Mid-year revision
0.8% -- 1.2%
Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5%
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9%
Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0%
Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9%
General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8%
One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate.
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53
54
Presentation slides will be available at:
www.ceapodu.com
Professor Vinod Agarwal (vagarwal@odu.edu)
Professor Robert McNab (rmcnab@odu.edu)
Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
Strome College of Business
Old Dominion University
Questions?
55

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2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 Jan 18)

  • 1. 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
  • 3. The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and the Economic Forecasting Project.
  • 4. 2018 National and Virginia Economic Forecast Accelerating Growth, Increasing Risk Professor Robert McNab January 31, 2018
  • 5. Current and Historical Expansions 5 Expansion Duration In months Annual Employment Growth Annual Real GDP Growth October 1949 – July 1953 45 4.35% 6.14% May 1954 – August 1957 39 2.51% 3.67% April 1958 – April 1960 24 3.58% 4.86% February 1961 – December 1969 106 3.23% 4.68% November 1970 – November 1973 36 3.38% 4.60% March 1975 – January 1980 58 3.52% 4.01% December 1982 – July 1990 91 2.81% 3.81% March 1991 – March 2001 120 2.01% 3.45% November 2001 – December 2007 73 0.88% 2.66% June 2009 – Present* 103 1.38% 2.14% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in 2017 Q3. Average annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92%
  • 6. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S. Q4 and VA Q3 are advance estimates. VA Q4 is our forecast. Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product United States and Virginia, 2010 - 2017 Q4 United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP 6
  • 7. 7 129,733 147,380 120,000 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 150,000 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 ThousandsofJobs Total Nonfarm Employment United States, January 2007 – December 2017 + 17.65 Million Jobs Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough was February 2010.
  • 8. 3,596.1 3,966.5 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 ThousandsofJobs Total Nonfarm Employment Virginia, January 2007 - December 2017 8 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough is February 2010. +400,400 Jobs
  • 9. 9Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008. Peak employment for Virginia was April 2008. Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017. December 2017 data are preliminary. Data measure the number of reported jobs by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. 6.47% 4.69% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 Months Since Pre-Recession Peak Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment Virginia and the United States, 2008-2017 United States Virginia
  • 10. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. December 2017 data are preliminary. 10 4.6% 10.0% 4.1% 3.0% 7.4% 3.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Headline Unemployment Rate (U3) Virginia and United States, January 2007 - December 2017 United States Virginia
  • 11. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented. 11 10.1% 8.2% 16.7% 8.5% 6.8% 6.0% 12.9% 7.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6) Virginia and the United States, 2003-2017 United States Virginia
  • 12. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary. 3,770 5,461 7,460 9,351 10,911 4,782 7,991 6,061 368 19,560 1,549 11,411 18,263 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Individuals Month-to-Month Change in Labor Force Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017 12
  • 13. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary. 4,402 8,280 13,35813,836 10,304 4,697 8,438 5,331 230 22,158 475 12,832 16,746-20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jobs Month-to-Month Change in Employment Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017 13
  • 14. 14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. 63.7% 62.7% 77.9% 69.0% 51.5% 57.0% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate United States, January 1980 – December 2017 Overall Men Women
  • 15. 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. 71.5% 69.7% 65.3% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 Labor Force Participation Rate Virginia, January 1976 to December 2017
  • 16. 16 Source: Office of Management and Budget and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars. $236 $128 $158 $378 $413 $318 $248 $161 $459 $1,413 $1,294 $1,300 $1,087 $680 $485 $438 $585 $666 -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,200 -$1,000 -$800 -$600 -$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Federal Deficit in Billions of Dollars
  • 17. 17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment. 2017 is through the 3rd quarter. 9.53% 6.52% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP United States, 1950-2017*
  • 18. 18 32.56 44.20 33.60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1881 1885 1889 1893 1897 1901 1905 1909 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index January 1881 – January 2018 Source: Robert Schiller, Irrational Exuberance. Prices and earnings are in January 2000 dollars. Data as of January 16th, 2018 market close. For further information: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
  • 19. 19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. 2017 US is an advance estimate. 2017 VA and 2018 are our forecasts. 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 2.9% 1.5% 2.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 1.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product Virginia and the United States, 2012-2018 United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
  • 20. 20 2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0% Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0% 10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 30-year Treasury Bill -- 2.8% 3.6% 30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0% Federal Deficit --- -$655 Billion -$750 Billion Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% Virginia Employment Growth --- 1.4% 1.3% Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. 2017 VA GDP is an estimate based on the first 3 quarters. Data are rounded to nearest tenth.
  • 21. 2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast Stagnant Growth, Improving Future? Professor Vinod Agarwal January 31, 2018 2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast Stagnant Growth, Improving Future? Professor Vinod Agarwal January 31, 2018
  • 22. 1.62% 2.17% 1.49% 2.25%2.12% -0.04% -1.09% 0.80% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2001 to 2009 2009 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017e Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP Hampton Roads and the United States United States Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September 2017. US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates. 22
  • 23. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July 2007. Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017 (US and VA) and November 2017 (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs. 6.47% 4.69% -2.25% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 121 Months Since Pre-Recession Peak Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, 2008-2017 United States Virginia Hampton Roads
  • 25. $522 $574 $584 $581 $490 $500 $510 $520 $530 $540 $550 $560 $570 $580 $590 DoD Budget Control Act Cap POTUS Request House Appropriations Senate Appropriations BillionsofDollarsDoD Base Budget Cap, Request, and Appropriations Bills Fiscal Year 2018 Sources: Budget Control Act of 2011, FY 2018 Presidential Budget Request, U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate
  • 26. Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement. Data for 2016 are estimates and data for 2017 are forecasts. 10.0 19.5 19.2 19.6 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 BillionsofDollarsEstimated Direct DoD Spending Hampton Roads, 2000 to 2017 26
  • 27. Estimated Average Compensation Hampton Roads, Selected Categories 27 2015 2016 Change in Compensation Military $91,561 $92,189 0.69% Federal Civilian Govt. Employees $107,322 $109,624 2.15% State and Local Govt. Employees $62,602 $64,164 2.49% Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41,751 -1.04% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits.
  • 28. Where are the jobs?
  • 29. 706.6 775.5 737.1 771.8 769.4 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 ThousandsofJobs Average Annual Civilian Jobs Hampton Roads, 1999-2017 Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018
  • 30. Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. -11 -7 -6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 1 1 4 19 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Construction Manufacturing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Information Real Estate Admin and Support Finance and Insurance Utilities Management of Companies Professional and Scientific Transportation and Warehousing Accomodation and Food Health Care and Social Assistance Change in Private Sector Employment Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1
  • 31. 746 827 846 835 838 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 ThousandsofIndividuals Civilian Labor Force Hampton Roads, 1999-2017 Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
  • 32. 721 792 797 796 803 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 ThousandsofIndividuals Number of Individuals Employed Hampton Roads, 1999 to 2017 Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
  • 33. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November 2017. 4.1% 3.7% 4.3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Headline Unemployment Rate (U3) Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States January 2007-December 2017* United States Virginia Hampton Roads
  • 35. $1,338 $551 $978 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MillionsofDollars Value of Building Permits for One-Unit Family Homes Hampton Roads, 1991-2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
  • 36. 14,703 23,492 2,265 3,228 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Existing and New Construction Home Sales Hampton Roads, 2010-2017 Existing Homes New Construction Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
  • 37. 15.8% 49.0% 29.0% 4.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type Hampton Roads, 2000-2017 FHA VA Conventional Cash Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
  • 38. $116,900 $223,000 $180,000 $219,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Median Sales Price of Existing Homes Hampton Roads, 2002-2017 Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 2002-2007 = 91% increase. 2011-2017 is a 22% increase.
  • 39. Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017 39Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. * Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950 City Median Price 2007 Median Price 2017 % change Chesapeake $250,100 $245,000 -2.0% Norfolk $195,000 $183,500 -5.9% Portsmouth $165,500 $140,000 -15.4% Suffolk** $257,500 $240,000 -6.8% Virginia Beach $245,000 $247,500 +1.2% Hampton $180,000 $155,000 -13.9% Newport News $199,250 $170,000 -14.7% Williamsburg* $284,450 $283,000 -0.5% Hampton Roads $223,000 $219,000 -1.8%
  • 40. 0.2% 7.1% 3.6%1.2% 26.6% 8.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of Total Sales Hampton Roads, 2006-2017 Short Sales REO Sales
  • 42. $520.2 $708.3 $645.3 $803.1 $841.6 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 MillionsofDollars Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads 2000-2017 Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
  • 43. 4.9% 3.9% 4.8% 3.0% 2.9% 4.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% United States Virginia Hampton Roads Growth in Hotel Revenue and Revenue Per Available Room United States, Virginia, and Hampton Roads, 2016-2017 Hotel Revenue Revenue per Available Room
  • 44. 0.16% 4.15% 14.43% 3.85% 5.81% 4.80% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Williamsburg Market Virginia Beach Norfolk/Portsmouth Newport News/Hampton Chesapeake/Suffolk Hampton Roads Growth in Hotel Revenue Hampton Roads, 2016 to 2017 Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg.
  • 45. Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms $0.42 $2.16 $5.88 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MillionsofDollars Monthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads 2015-2017 2015 2016 2017
  • 47. 17.83 18.84 21.97 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 MillionsofTons General Cargo Tonnage Port of Virginia, 2000-2017 Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
  • 48. 1,348 2,128 1,745 2,224 2,841 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 ThousandsofTEUs Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs) Port of Virginia, 2000-2017 Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
  • 49. 0.33 0.39 0.43 0.45 0.48 0.55 0.57 0.77 0.82 0.84 0.93 0.98 0.95 1.04 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MillionsofContainers Movement of Containers by Type of Transportation Port of Virginia, 2011-2017 Rail Barge & Truck
  • 50. 50 1,158 1,201 1,307 1,341 1,410 1,514 1,798 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NumberofTEUs Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call Port of Virginia, 2011-2017 Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
  • 51. 51 2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast Hampton Roads Real Gross Domestic Product Initial Forecast 1.4% -- -- Hampton Roads Real Gross Domestic Product Mid-year revision 0.8% -- 1.2% Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0% Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9% General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8% One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4% Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate.
  • 52.
  • 53. ▪ To receive updates from the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, please leave your card with us. ▪ You may also text CEAPODU to 66866 to join our email list and follow CEAPODU on Facebook and Twitter. ▪ You will not only receive access to our reports and presentations but also monthly economic updates for Hampton Roads. As we launch new products, you will be included in the distribution list. ▪ We put the economy into context so that you can better understand the numbers. 53
  • 54. 54 Presentation slides will be available at: www.ceapodu.com Professor Vinod Agarwal (vagarwal@odu.edu) Professor Robert McNab (rmcnab@odu.edu) Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business Old Dominion University Questions?
  • 55. 55