SlideShare a Scribd company logo

CTAR 2022 Year in Review | Residential Market Update

Presentation from the annual CTAR 2022 Year in Review Residential Market Update by Dr. Joey Von Nessen.

1 of 45
Download to read offline
THE 2023 SOUTH CAROLINA
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D.
Research Economist
January 18, 2023
joey.vonnessen@moore.sc.edu
THE YEAR OF READJUSTMENT
IS A RECESSION REQUIRED TO
READJUST THE ECONOMY?
WHY DID WE SPEED
UP SO MUCH?
A RAPID LABOR MARKET RECOVERY
+
$6 TRILLION FEDERAL STIMULUS
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83
Great Recession COVID-19 Recession
S.C. EMPLOYMENT AS PCT. OF PRE-RECESSION PEAK
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
S.C. employment levels currently 2.2% above
pre-pandemic peak
SOUTH CAROLINA EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY
Gains and Losses by Industry Sector
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA
100%
100% 95% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 98%
100% 100%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Pct. Emp. During Shutdown Pct. Emp. Recovered to Date Pct. Emp. to be Recovered
Ad

Recommended

Três princípios que marcaram a igreja primitiva
Três princípios que marcaram a igreja primitivaTrês princípios que marcaram a igreja primitiva
Três princípios que marcaram a igreja primitivaGilberto Dos Santos
 
Lição 13 uma vida de frutificação
Lição 13   uma vida de frutificaçãoLição 13   uma vida de frutificação
Lição 13 uma vida de frutificaçãoDaniel Felipe Kroth
 
Pregação 'quebrar o cântaro, tocar a trombeta e erguer a tocha' juízes 7.16 2...
Pregação 'quebrar o cântaro, tocar a trombeta e erguer a tocha' juízes 7.16 2...Pregação 'quebrar o cântaro, tocar a trombeta e erguer a tocha' juízes 7.16 2...
Pregação 'quebrar o cântaro, tocar a trombeta e erguer a tocha' juízes 7.16 2...Pr. Welfany Nolasco Rodrigues
 
Lição 8 - O Desafio da Criação dos Filhos
Lição 8 - O Desafio da Criação dos FilhosLição 8 - O Desafio da Criação dos Filhos
Lição 8 - O Desafio da Criação dos FilhosÉder Tomé
 
Aula 8 oração e jejum
Aula 8   oração e jejumAula 8   oração e jejum
Aula 8 oração e jejummagnao2
 
1.3.4. önleme 2. düzenleme
1.3.4. önleme 2. düzenleme1.3.4. önleme 2. düzenleme
1.3.4. önleme 2. düzenlemeeabdep
 

More Related Content

What's hot

Combatendo o Desanimo
Combatendo  o DesanimoCombatendo  o Desanimo
Combatendo o DesanimoL O Pinheiro
 
Família, criação de Deus
Família, criação de DeusFamília, criação de Deus
Família, criação de DeusMoisés Sampaio
 
Machine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctors
Machine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctorsMachine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctors
Machine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctorsMaarten van Smeden
 
Concurso biblico especial dia dos pais
Concurso biblico especial dia dos paisConcurso biblico especial dia dos pais
Concurso biblico especial dia dos paisRogerio Sena
 
Mensagem texto base - gen.30-30 b
Mensagem   texto base - gen.30-30 bMensagem   texto base - gen.30-30 b
Mensagem texto base - gen.30-30 bDaniel M Junior
 
Casamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAIS
Casamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAISCasamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAIS
Casamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAISAndré Nunes E Clarisa
 
CriançA é O Presente Da Igreja
CriançA é O Presente Da IgrejaCriançA é O Presente Da Igreja
CriançA é O Presente Da IgrejaPetula
 
A doutrina da Expiação Limitada
A doutrina da Expiação LimitadaA doutrina da Expiação Limitada
A doutrina da Expiação LimitadaViva a Igreja
 
Lição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelou
Lição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelouLição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelou
Lição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelouÉder Tomé
 
12 o perdao na familia
12   o perdao na familia12   o perdao na familia
12 o perdao na familiaPIB Penha
 
Lição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da Igreja
Lição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da IgrejaLição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da Igreja
Lição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da IgrejaÉder Tomé
 
Lição 4 - Dons de Poder
Lição 4 - Dons de Poder Lição 4 - Dons de Poder
Lição 4 - Dons de Poder Éder Tomé
 

What's hot (17)

Codigo da inteligencia
Codigo da inteligenciaCodigo da inteligencia
Codigo da inteligencia
 
Combatendo o Desanimo
Combatendo  o DesanimoCombatendo  o Desanimo
Combatendo o Desanimo
 
Família, criação de Deus
Família, criação de DeusFamília, criação de Deus
Família, criação de Deus
 
Machine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctors
Machine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctorsMachine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctors
Machine learning versus traditional statistical modeling and medical doctors
 
A religião de caim.pub
A religião de caim.pubA religião de caim.pub
A religião de caim.pub
 
Na mente ou no coração
Na mente ou no coraçãoNa mente ou no coração
Na mente ou no coração
 
Concurso biblico especial dia dos pais
Concurso biblico especial dia dos paisConcurso biblico especial dia dos pais
Concurso biblico especial dia dos pais
 
Dons de Revelação
Dons de RevelaçãoDons de Revelação
Dons de Revelação
 
Mensagem texto base - gen.30-30 b
Mensagem   texto base - gen.30-30 bMensagem   texto base - gen.30-30 b
Mensagem texto base - gen.30-30 b
 
Casamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAIS
Casamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAISCasamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAIS
Casamento uma obra prima - MINISTERIO DE CASAIS
 
CriançA é O Presente Da Igreja
CriançA é O Presente Da IgrejaCriançA é O Presente Da Igreja
CriançA é O Presente Da Igreja
 
A doutrina da Expiação Limitada
A doutrina da Expiação LimitadaA doutrina da Expiação Limitada
A doutrina da Expiação Limitada
 
Lição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelou
Lição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelouLição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelou
Lição 01 - O Deus Todo-Poderoso se revelou
 
12 o perdao na familia
12   o perdao na familia12   o perdao na familia
12 o perdao na familia
 
Lição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da Igreja
Lição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da IgrejaLição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da Igreja
Lição 2 – O Fundamento e a Edificação da Igreja
 
Lição 4 - Dons de Poder
Lição 4 - Dons de Poder Lição 4 - Dons de Poder
Lição 4 - Dons de Poder
 
Crianças para Jesus
Crianças para JesusCrianças para Jesus
Crianças para Jesus
 

Similar to CTAR 2022 Year in Review | Residential Market Update

2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's Economy
2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's Economy2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's Economy
2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's EconomyNicoleMSandelier
 
2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...
2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...
2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...Lynne Watanabe-MacFarlane
 
Wisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic UpdateWisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic UpdateTheChamber
 
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFBGraphics
 
Housing Stats for 2020 with Becky Ashby
Housing Stats for 2020 with Becky AshbyHousing Stats for 2020 with Becky Ashby
Housing Stats for 2020 with Becky AshbyBecky Ashby
 
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Ivan Kaufman
 
Zions Bank Economic Snapshot
Zions Bank Economic SnapshotZions Bank Economic Snapshot
Zions Bank Economic SnapshotMarian Hein
 
Portland Economic Outlook for 2022
Portland Economic Outlook for 2022Portland Economic Outlook for 2022
Portland Economic Outlook for 2022Paul Menig
 
Thomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdf
Thomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdfThomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdf
Thomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdfThomvest Ventures
 
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019Ivan Kaufman
 
Jan 2021 Pandemic Economy
Jan 2021 Pandemic EconomyJan 2021 Pandemic Economy
Jan 2021 Pandemic EconomyARCResearch
 
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019Ivan Kaufman
 

Similar to CTAR 2022 Year in Review | Residential Market Update (20)

2021 CTAR Residential Market Update with Dr. Joseph Von Nessen
2021 CTAR Residential Market Update with Dr. Joseph Von Nessen2021 CTAR Residential Market Update with Dr. Joseph Von Nessen
2021 CTAR Residential Market Update with Dr. Joseph Von Nessen
 
2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's Economy
2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's Economy2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's Economy
2020 Economic Review Final: An Annual Review of New Jersey's Economy
 
2024 Residential Market Update Slides - Dr. Von Nessen
2024 Residential Market Update Slides - Dr. Von Nessen2024 Residential Market Update Slides - Dr. Von Nessen
2024 Residential Market Update Slides - Dr. Von Nessen
 
2021 Market Forecast
2021 Market Forecast2021 Market Forecast
2021 Market Forecast
 
2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...
2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...
2021 Market Forecast - Leslie Appleton-YoungChief Economist + SVPCalifornia A...
 
Wisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic UpdateWisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic Update
 
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
 
Housing Stats for 2020 with Becky Ashby
Housing Stats for 2020 with Becky AshbyHousing Stats for 2020 with Becky Ashby
Housing Stats for 2020 with Becky Ashby
 
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
 
Post #Budget2019 Presentation
Post #Budget2019 PresentationPost #Budget2019 Presentation
Post #Budget2019 Presentation
 
2020 CTAR Residential Real Estate Market Update
2020 CTAR Residential Real Estate Market Update2020 CTAR Residential Real Estate Market Update
2020 CTAR Residential Real Estate Market Update
 
2023 Critical Issues Series: The Economic Outlook Forum
2023 Critical Issues Series: The Economic Outlook Forum2023 Critical Issues Series: The Economic Outlook Forum
2023 Critical Issues Series: The Economic Outlook Forum
 
Zions Bank Economic Snapshot
Zions Bank Economic SnapshotZions Bank Economic Snapshot
Zions Bank Economic Snapshot
 
Portland Economic Outlook for 2022
Portland Economic Outlook for 2022Portland Economic Outlook for 2022
Portland Economic Outlook for 2022
 
Thomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdf
Thomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdfThomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdf
Thomvest Housing Market Overview_Dec 2023_FINAL.pdf
 
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
 
Anirban Basu - Sage Policy Group - Presentation at MEDA 2019 Annual Conference
Anirban Basu - Sage Policy Group - Presentation at MEDA 2019 Annual ConferenceAnirban Basu - Sage Policy Group - Presentation at MEDA 2019 Annual Conference
Anirban Basu - Sage Policy Group - Presentation at MEDA 2019 Annual Conference
 
Jan 2021 Pandemic Economy
Jan 2021 Pandemic EconomyJan 2021 Pandemic Economy
Jan 2021 Pandemic Economy
 
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
 
May Business Lunch
May Business LunchMay Business Lunch
May Business Lunch
 

More from Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS

More from Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS (20)

2020 RPAC Investor Presentation
2020 RPAC Investor Presentation 2020 RPAC Investor Presentation
2020 RPAC Investor Presentation
 
CID December Meeting | Commercial Market Forecast
CID December Meeting | Commercial Market ForecastCID December Meeting | Commercial Market Forecast
CID December Meeting | Commercial Market Forecast
 
2019 CMF Office
2019 CMF Office 2019 CMF Office
2019 CMF Office
 
2019 CMF Multi Family
2019 CMF Multi Family2019 CMF Multi Family
2019 CMF Multi Family
 
CMF 2019 Troy Miller
CMF 2019 Troy MillerCMF 2019 Troy Miller
CMF 2019 Troy Miller
 
CMF 2019 Kimberly Goetz
CMF 2019 Kimberly GoetzCMF 2019 Kimberly Goetz
CMF 2019 Kimberly Goetz
 
CMF 2019 Dr. Yun Forecast
CMF 2019 Dr. Yun ForecastCMF 2019 Dr. Yun Forecast
CMF 2019 Dr. Yun Forecast
 
CMF 2019 Dr. Yun Power Point
CMF 2019 Dr. Yun Power PointCMF 2019 Dr. Yun Power Point
CMF 2019 Dr. Yun Power Point
 
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Derek Mathis Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Derek Mathis UpdateCharleston Commercial Market Forecast | Derek Mathis Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Derek Mathis Update
 
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Mack Reese
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Mack ReeseCharleston Commercial Market Forecast | Mack Reese
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Mack Reese
 
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic UpdateCharleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
 
2017 Retail
2017 Retail2017 Retail
2017 Retail
 
2017 Office
2017 Office2017 Office
2017 Office
 
2017 Industrial
2017 Industrial2017 Industrial
2017 Industrial
 
2017 Hospitality
2017 Hospitality2017 Hospitality
2017 Hospitality
 
Economic Outlook
Economic OutlookEconomic Outlook
Economic Outlook
 
2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Stephen Slifer
2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Stephen Slifer2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Stephen Slifer
2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Stephen Slifer
 
2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Dr. Von Nessen
2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Dr. Von Nessen2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Dr. Von Nessen
2016 Year in Review | CTAR Residential Market Update | Dr. Von Nessen
 
2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Development Update
2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Development Update2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Development Update
2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Development Update
 
2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Industrial Update
2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Industrial Update2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Industrial Update
2016 Commercial Market Forecast | Industrial Update
 

Recently uploaded

Joyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Joyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdfJoyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Joyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdfManishSaxena95
 
Polat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - Katalog
Polat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - KatalogPolat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - Katalog
Polat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - KatalogListing Turkey
 
Mana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
Mana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdfMana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
Mana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdfkratirudram
 
Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -
Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -
Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -Listing Turkey
 
Lodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane E-Brochure.pdf
Lodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane  E-Brochure.pdfLodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane  E-Brochure.pdf
Lodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane E-Brochure.pdfManishSaxena95
 
San Francisco January 2024 Market Report
San Francisco January 2024 Market ReportSan Francisco January 2024 Market Report
San Francisco January 2024 Market ReportRonny Budiutama
 

Recently uploaded (6)

Joyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Joyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdfJoyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Joyville Celestia At SP Kingstown Hadapsar Annexe Manjri, Pune E-Brochure.pdf
 
Polat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - Katalog
Polat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - KatalogPolat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - Katalog
Polat Levent Exclusive Besiktas - Katalog
 
Mana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
Mana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdfMana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
Mana Jardin Neo Sarjapur Bangalore.pdf.pdf
 
Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -
Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -
Litus Istanbul Uskudar English Catalog -
 
Lodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane E-Brochure.pdf
Lodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane  E-Brochure.pdfLodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane  E-Brochure.pdf
Lodha Bellavista Pokhran Road 2 Thane E-Brochure.pdf
 
San Francisco January 2024 Market Report
San Francisco January 2024 Market ReportSan Francisco January 2024 Market Report
San Francisco January 2024 Market Report
 

CTAR 2022 Year in Review | Residential Market Update

  • 1. THE 2023 SOUTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist January 18, 2023 joey.vonnessen@moore.sc.edu
  • 2. THE YEAR OF READJUSTMENT
  • 3. IS A RECESSION REQUIRED TO READJUST THE ECONOMY?
  • 4. WHY DID WE SPEED UP SO MUCH? A RAPID LABOR MARKET RECOVERY + $6 TRILLION FEDERAL STIMULUS
  • 5. -16.0% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 Great Recession COVID-19 Recession S.C. EMPLOYMENT AS PCT. OF PRE-RECESSION PEAK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA S.C. employment levels currently 2.2% above pre-pandemic peak
  • 6. SOUTH CAROLINA EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY Gains and Losses by Industry Sector Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 100% 100% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Pct. Emp. During Shutdown Pct. Emp. Recovered to Date Pct. Emp. to be Recovered
  • 7. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA SOUTH CAROLINA EMPLOYMENT RECOVERY Current employment levels vs. Feb.’20 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0% 98.0% 100.0% 102.0% 104.0% 106.0% 108.0% South Carolina Charleston Columbia Florence Greenville Hilton Head Myrtle Beach Spartanburg Sumter 102.2% 105.8% 100.1% 97.7% 102.9% 99.2% 103.2% 102.5% 97.2%
  • 8. STOCK OF EXCESS U.S. HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS BY QUARTILE Source: Federal Reserve In trillions of dollars $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 q120 q220 q320 q420 q121 q221 q321 q421 q122 q222 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
  • 9. STOCK OF EXCESS U.S. HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS BY QUARTILE Source: Federal Reserve In trillions of dollars $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 $0.50 q120 q220 q320 q420 q121 q221 q321 q421 q122 q222 Q1 Q2
  • 10. REAL TOTAL U.S. CONSUMER SPENDING Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in billions $10,000 $10,500 $11,000 $11,500 $12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000
  • 11. REAL U.S. CONSUMER SPENDING Goods Services Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in billions $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21 Jul.'21 Jan.'22 Jul.'22 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 $9,500 Jan.'13 Jul.'13 Jan.'14 Jul.'14 Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21 Jul.'21 Jan.'22 Jul.'22
  • 12. -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% U.S. Employment Real U.S. Consumer Spending U.S. CUMULATIVE GROWTH SINCE FEB.’20 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis +7.4% +0.7%
  • 13. WHY DOES THIS SUPPLY/DEMAND IMBALANCE MATTER?
  • 14. A SUPPLY/DEMAND IMBALANCE HIGH INFLATION REDUCES THE AFFORDABILITY OF CONSUMER GOODS LOWERS CONSUMER SPENDING/ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
  • 15. U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Nov. 2022 vs. Nov. 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 14.1% 7.8% 7.2% 9.3% 5.5% 9.6% 10.6% 25.8%
  • 16. RESTORING SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE IS THE GOAL OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S INTEREST RATE HIKES …AND IT IS (SLOWLY) WORKING!
  • 17. -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% CPI: All Items CPI: All Items Less Food and Energy U.S. INFLATION RATE (YEAR/YEAR) Source: U.S. BLS, Consumer Price Index, SA +6.5% +5.7%
  • 18. -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21 Jul.'21 Jan.'22 Jul.'22 U.S. CORE INFLATION (MONTH/MONTH) Source: Consumer Price Index, SA 3-Month Rolling Average
  • 19. -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21 Jul.'21 Jan.'22 Jul.'22 Zillow Rent Index CPI: U.S. Shelter Rents GROWTH IN U.S. RENTAL RATES: 2018-2022 Source: Zillow and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 3-Month Rolling Average
  • 20. HOW ARE INTEREST RATE HIKES IMPACTING THE HOUSING MARKET?
  • 21. DIRECT EFFECTS (2022 & 2023) ANY REDUCTION IN HOUSING SALES DUE TO DECREASES IN HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDIRECT EFFECTS (2023) ANY REDUCTION IN HOUSING SALES DUE TO INCREASES IN UNEMPLOYMENT
  • 22. 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21 Jul.'21 Jan.'22 Jul.'22 U.S. MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES Source: 30-Year Fixed Rate Average, Freddie Mac 6.4%
  • 23. SOUTH CAROLINA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Nov.’22 vs. Nov.’21 Employment Gains by Industry Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES-SA -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 3.7% 6.8% -4.5% 2.9% 4.6% 10.0% 5.4% 4.2% 3.9% 7.1% 5.7%
  • 24. 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 CHARLESTON, SC MONTHLY MLS SALES Source: CTAR Multiple Listing Service; rolling 12-month average
  • 25. 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 CHARLESTON, SC MONTHLY MLS SALES Source: CTAR Multiple Listing Service; rolling 12-month average
  • 26. TOTAL CHARLESTON, SC MLS SALES Year Annual Total Sales 2016 14,329 2017 14,638 2018 14,564 2019 14,843 2020 17,420 2021 19,057 2022 15,849 Source: CTAR Multiple Listing Service - Total sales declined by -16.8% in 2022 vs. 2021 - But total sales increased by +6.7% between 2019 and 2022 - This translates to an average annual growth rate of +2.2% from 2019 to 2022
  • 27. U.S. NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING SALES Source: U.S. Census Bureau 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 in thousands
  • 28. DAYS-ON-MARKET: CHARLESTON, SC Source: CTAR Multiple Listing Service 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
  • 29. LIST PRICE MINUS SOLD PRICE: CHARLESTON, SC Source: CTAR Multiple Listing Service -$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 Buyer Discount
  • 30. GROWTH IN CHARLESTON, SC MEDIAN SALES PRICE Source: CTAR Multiple Listing Service -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Pre-pandemic average annual sales price growth rate: +4.6%
  • 31. ARE MORE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE HOUSING MARKET COMING IN 2023? WHAT’S NEXT?
  • 32. • GETTING INFLATION UNDER CONTROL IS THE FED’S HIGHEST STATED PRIORITY • BUT MOST OF THE FED’S PLANNED INTEREST RATE HIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN IMPLEMENTED • RATES ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO RISE BY ANOTHER 50 BASIS POINTS IN 2023 WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT FED POLICY?
  • 33. THE EFFECTS OF INTEREST RATE HIKES ARE LAGGED!
  • 34. DIRECT EFFECTS (2022 & 2023) ANY REDUCTION IN HOUSING SALES DUE TO DECREASES IN HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDIRECT EFFECTS (2023) ANY REDUCTION IN HOUSING SALES DUE TO INCREASES IN UNEMPLOYMENT
  • 35. REAL TOTAL U.S. CONSUMER SPENDING GROWTH Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Jan.'18 Jul.'18 Jan.'19 Jul.'19 Jan.'20 Jul.'20 Jan.'21 Jul.'21 Jan.'22 Jul.'22
  • 36. MONTHLY GROWTH IN U.S. RETAIL SALES Source: U.S. Census Bureau -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Nov.'21 Dec.'21 Jan.'22 Feb.'22 Mar.'22 Apr.'22 May.'22 Jun.'22 Jul.'22 Aug.'22 Sept.'22 Oct.'22 Nov.'22 Month/Month 3-Month Rolling Avg.
  • 37. MONTHLY GROWTH IN U.S. RETAIL SALES Source: U.S. Census Bureau -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Nov.'21 Dec.'21 Jan.'22 Feb.'22 Mar.'22 Apr.'22 May.'22 Jun.'22 Jul.'22 Aug.'22 Sept.'22 Oct.'22 Nov.'22 Month/Month 3-Month Rolling Avg.
  • 38. TOTAL SOUTH CAROLINA EMPLOYMENT Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2,060 2,080 2,100 2,120 2,140 2,160 2,180 2,200 2,220 2,240 2,260 in thousands
  • 39. 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 U.S. JOB OPENINGS RATE Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The job openings rate was significantly lower the last time unemployment in the U.S. was at 3.5% (in Feb. 2020)
  • 40. THE RACE BETWEEN INFLATION AND CHECKING ACCOUNTS! THE WINNER COULD DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A “SOFT LANDING”
  • 41. S.C. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1976-2022 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Grey bars denote recessions
  • 42. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE COMPARISONS S.C. NON-RECESSION AVG. RATE 1976-2022 5.8% FULL EMPLOYMENT 5.0% CURRENT S.C. RATE 3.3%
  • 43. WHAT IS A JOBFUL RECESSION? …THE OPPOSITE OF A JOBLESS RECOVERY!
  • 44. THE BOTTOM LINE • The South Carolina and U.S. economies have rebounded from the pandemic- induced recession of 2020 and are still in a relatively strong position • Housing markets are in the process of readjusting and coming off of their recent two-year “caffeine high;” sales activity has returned to pre-pandemic growth norms • High inflation remains the biggest short-run threat to the economy, and due to aggressive Fed policy to combat this inflation, most economists estimate the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to be greater than 50 percent • Further pullback in housing demand is likely if the labor market weakens and the unemployment rate begins to rise • A recession in 2023 would most likely be mild – and the prevalent labor shortage will help limit any negative impacts to the jobs market