Gold prices started the week with a huge leap forward on the back of host of supportive factors for gold at the moment. Spot gold edged higher towards $1336/ounce, highest in 42 weeks on Monday in Asia after the
North Korean nuclear test over the weekend. Earlier the weaker than expected nonfarm report on Friday
4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )✍
GOLD✍
Gold prices started the week with a huge leap forward on the back of host of supportive factors for gold at
the moment. Spot gold edged higher towards $1336/ounce, highest in 42 weeks on Monday in Asia after the
North Korean nuclear test over the weekend. Earlier the weaker than expected nonfarm report on Friday
also lifted the gold prices. Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 156 thousand in August of
2017, below a downwardly revised 189 thousand in July and lower than market expectations of 180
thousand. US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4 percent in August 2017 from 4.3 percent in the
previous month and above market consensus of 4.3 percent. North Korea on Sunday conducted its sixth and
most powerful nuclear test, which it said was of an advanced hydrogen bomb for a long-range missile,
prompting the threat of a “massive” military response from the United States if it or its allies were
threatened. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States stood at 96.8 in August
of 2017, below the preliminary estimate of 97.6 and compared with July's final reading of 93.4.Separtaely,
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 58.8 in August of 2017 from
56.3 in July, beating market expectations of 56.5. It is the highest reading since April of 2011 Construction
spending in the US unexpectedly fell 0.6 percent month-on-month to USD 1.21 trillion in July 2017, the
lowest level since October 2016, following an upwardly revised 1.4 percent drop in June and missing
market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by
large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 231,047 contracts in the data reported through
Tuesday August 29th. This was a weekly gain of 22,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total
of 208,438 net contracts. The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators
and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 53,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August
29th. This was a weekly gain of 9,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,546 net
contracts.
BASE METAL✍
Base metals complex remained in the green zone by the time of closing of previous session; Nickel was the
top gainer on Friday at LME as well as on MCX futures market. LME Copper hit its highest in three years
in early Asian trading on Monday as investment flowed into industrial metals amid surprisingly robust
global factory growth. Factories across Asia and Europe cranked up production last month as global
demand remained strong, confounding expectations growth may have peaked. LME Nickel strike highest
since June 2015, up 2.5 percent as steel and its inputs stretched a rally fuelled by expectations that China
5. will close capacity over winter to clear its smog-choked skies. Hedge funds and money managers upped
their bullish stance in copper to a fresh record, U.S. government data showed on Friday. U.S. job growth
slowed more than expected in August after two straight months of hefty increases, but the pace of gains
should be more than enough for the Federal Reserve to announce a plan to start trimming a massive bond
portfolio accumulated as it sought to bolster the economy.
Copper prices on Friday showed upward trajectory and went higher at MCX Future markets by 1.71%
whereas at LME prices went up by 0.7%. Stocks at LME decreased by 2.17% and cancelled warrants
increased massively by 3.55%.Copper hit its highest in three years in early Asian trading on Monday as
investment flowed into industrial metals amid surprisingly robust global factory growth.Hedge funds and
money managers upped their bullish stance in copper to a fresh record, U.S. government data showed on
Friday
Nickel prices on Thursday remained the top performer on LMe as the prices gained around 1.9% at LME
and moved higher by 0.7% in MCX futures market. At LME, Stocks increased by 0.67% on Thursday and
cancelled warrants increased by 0.81%. Chinese rebar steel and iron ore futures gained after the
manufacturing data, continuing a months-long rally that has boosted other industrial metals nickel and zinc.
South Korea's SK Innovation said on Thursday it has started commercial production of lithium-ion batteries
with an increased portion of nickel.
Aluminum prices on Friday posted gains as the prices went higher by 0.9% in LME & went up by 0.63% at
MCX futures market. Stocks increased by 0.03% and cancelled warrants decreased by 0.56%. Aluminum
prices have rallied this year amid burgeoning optimism about consumption in China, as well as the impact
of supply-side reforms. According to the most recent data, China’s July aluminum production was at the
lowest since February 2017. If we exclude February, when production was lower due to the Chinese Lunar
New Year holiday, July’s aluminum production is actually at a one-year low.China accounts for more than
half of the glob
Lead prices on Friday drifted higher by the closing higher at 0.04% in LME trading session and at MCX
prices went up by 0.8%. As per LME data, stocks at LME declined by 0.17% on Friday & cancelled
warrants also decreased by 0.2%. The supply side fundamentals are supporting the prices as Chinese
primary lead production in the first seven months of 2017 has decreased by 6.64% y-o-y due to concentrate
supply tightness. Whereas the rise in cancelled warrants last week at LME tracked warehouse shows the
robust demand for the metal. Zinc prices on Friday uprehended as prices went up at MCX future market by
2.32% whereas went same in LME by 1.24%. As per LME data, stocks at LME decreased by 0.06% on
Friday whereas cancelled warrants decreased by 0.11%. Chinese rebar steel gaining currently after the
manufacturing data, continuing a months-long rally that has boosted other industrial metals nickel and zinc.
Zinc’s monthly gain was the biggest in more than two years pushed by bets on tighter supplies and Chinese
demand
ENERGY✍
6. Choppiness in likely to continue for short term supported by shutdowns of U.S. production following
Hurricane Harvey, but pressured by expected downturn in crude demand as storm knocked out refineries
along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Department of Energy reported eight U.S. oil refineries with total of 2.1
million bpd, or 11.4% of total U.S. refining capacity, were still shut down. Iran’s oil minister announcement
of OPEC members' compliance with agreement to reduce output to have improved in recent months too
supported prices on lower levels. Markets were nervously eyeing developments in North Korea, where
military conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test over weekend, prompting threat of "massive"
military response from US if it or its allies were threatened. Market participants will now shift their focus to
crude oil inventories data that will be released on Thursday.
U.S. crude oil prices edged higher on Monday while gasoline prices slumped to pre-Hurricane Harvey
levels, as oil refineries and pipelines in the U.S. Gulf Coast slowly resumed activity, easing supply
concerns. Damage by Harvey to the oil infrastructure in the Gulf Coast appeared less extensive than some
had feared. A number of major refineries, which convert crude oil to refined products such as gasoline and
jet fuel, were gradually resuming operations on Monday. Colonial Pipeline, the largest American fuel
system, was restarting the distillates segment of its pipeline from Texas to New Jersey. Its gasoline pipeline
was due to resume operations on Tuesday, the company said. At the same time, about 5.5 percent of the U.S.
Gulf of Mexico's oil production, or 96,000 barrels of daily output, remained shut on Sunday, down from a
peak of more than 400,000 bpd last week. European gasoline refining margins dropped by nearly a fifth on
Monday. And while the U.S. government tapped its strategic oil reserves for the first time in five years last
week, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global energy watchdog saw no need for a
coordinated international release of oil stocks after Harvey.
7. MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
GOLD :On the daily chart, MCX Gold prices have given a breakout above the falling channel on the daily
chart. Moreover, COMEX Gold prices have been in a higher top higher bottom formation. Furthermore,
prices have been sustaining above its 25 SMA on the daily chart. In addition, RSI is in positive crossover
and upward trending suggesting the continuation of the current trend for next few days. Therefore, we keep
our bullish view on Gold with an expectation of 30500 levels.
8. CRUDEOIL
MCX Crude Oil price have found resistance around the reflection point twice. In addition, price slipped
below its range-bound pattern on the daily chart which adds to the bearishness. Moreover, NYMEX crude
is struggling to sustain above $50 mark suggests a capping of upside around $50. Further more price
slipped below 25 SMA on a daily chart. Therefore, we keep our view bearish on MCX Crude and expect
a correction towards 2850 levels in the few trading session.
10. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET -✍
Indian government has banned import of wheat from Bangladesh and Latin American countries that have
reported deadly wheat blast disease to prevent spread of the disease in Indian crops. The Latin American
fungal wheat disease had made its way across the border from Bangladesh into India in the rabi season,
and led to 90% decline in the output in the affected fields. Data released from agriculture ministry showed
acreage of soybean across the country was at 10.5 mln ha, down 7.2% from a year ago, according to latest
data released by the agriculture ministry. The total area under soybean has declined this year due to a fall
in acreage in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, because of poor rains in the state so far. In Madhya
Pradesh, acreage of the crop was at 5.01 mln ha, lower than 5.36 mln ha in the previous year. In
Maharashtra, farmers have planted nearly soybean across 3.8 mln ha, down 3.1% on year, while in
Rajasthan, acreage was at 924,500 ha, down from 1.02 mln ha the previous year. Brazilian soy exports in
month of August hit all-time high of 5.7 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes above August 2015. In this year,
total exports of soy have reached 57.6 million tonnes. Mentha oil prices drifted lower as speculators
trimmed their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on tepid demand from industries. As per
report Essential Oil- Global Industry Perspective Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast 2014-2020,
global demand of essential oil will increase in coming years. Global essential oil market is mainly driven
by increasing demand from natural and organic care products. This will boost mentha oil demand mainly
from medicines health products cosmetics as well as food and beverages. From export front demand for
mentha will emerge from EU, UK, Japan and Singapore
cotton futures are expected to witness range bound move in absence of fresh cues to the market. Prices are
likely to track short term interim fundamentals which may support upward move in cotton. Prices are
closely monitoring arrival progress in northern region which has delayed due to unfavorable weather
condition. Forecast of heavy rainfall in Punjab for next two days may lead to delay in arrivals and may
cause prices to move up further at futures platform. Beside, mounting concerns over crop damage in US
caused by hurricane Harvey could be the major factor to lead prices higher in near term. Crop damage in
US may turn beneficial for India exporters as India is the second largest exporter of cotton after US.
However, comfortable supply outlook supported by good crop condition across India could restrict the
major gains. Moreover, prices may follow cues from better monsoon progress in key cotton growing
region as IMD forecasted above normal rainfall for Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana for next three
days starting from Friday. Overall cotton acreages have been higher by 16.71 % y/y till end of August as
about 119.67 lakh hac was sown under cotton till 25th Aug Aug compare to 102.54 lakh hac planted last
year till date. Total cotton acreages in Gujarat and Maharashtra has increased by 12% y/y and 7% y/y
respectively whereas it has been reported to be increased by 47% y/y and 41% y/y in Telangana and
Andhra Pradesh respectively. Crop condition is likely to be good in upcoming days owing to above
11. normal monsoon rainfall forecast as IMD projected above normal monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and
Maharashtra for next three days
Castor seed futures traded in range bound levels during the last trade on profit booking at exiting levels
Hence, most active Sept futures closed at Rs.4598/quintal, down by 0.39% while next month Oct futures
closed with loss of 0.38% from its last close As on 31st August 2017, total 40,384 tons castor seeds are
available at NCDEX approved warehouses, which is up by 819 tons compared to prior day whereas 3274
tons was in process As per IMD latest data, Gujarat has received 758.80 mm rainfall during the period of
1st June to 3rd Sept 2017, which is up by 32% compared to normal distribution of 576.90 mm while
Rajasthan has received 429.80 mm, higher by 18% against normal distribution of 365.50 mm; for the
country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season has so far upto
September 3rd is 4% below Long Period Average (LPA)
NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
SOYABEAN
NCDEX Soybean reversed sharply from Rs.3280 and is now trading closer to Rs.3065 mark. Rising trend
line support and horizontal support near Rs.3050 suggests possibility of a pullback rally. Key resistances
are placed at Rs.3160 / 3280 whereas Rs.3050 / 2980 may act as strong supports. Sideways to positive
consolidation is likely for the week as long as Rs.2980 is held.
12. RM SEED
NCDEX RMSeed continues to form higher highs and higher lows on the short-term time frame. Strong
supports are now placed at Rs.3760 / 3610 whereas Rs.3910 / 4130 are expected to act as stiff resistances.
Rising 14-period RSI supports the bullish view. Thus, dip buying is advised as long as Rs.3610 is held.
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