Drillers cut five oil rigs in the week to Sept. 22, bringing the total count down to 744, the least since June, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.
4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
ļ Drillers cut five oil rigs in the week to Sept. 22, bringing the total count down to 744, the least
since June, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report
on Friday.
ļ Russia urged "hot heads" to calm down on Friday as the United States admitted it felt
"challenged" by North Korea's warning that it could test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific and President
Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un traded more insults.
ā BULLION
Spot gold prices declined 1.7 percent last week to close at $1297 per ounce while MCX, gold prices
declined 1 percent to close at Rs.29700 per 10 gms. Gold had been creeping higher in the minutes before
the Fed released a statement about its latest two-day policy meeting, then reversed course and fell. It
briefly sank below the $1,300 mark that many in the markets viewed as psychological support. As
expected, the Fed also said it would start to reduce the portfolio of Treasuries and mortgages it acquired
through its quantitative easing (QE) program after the financial crisis. New projections after the Fed
meeting showed 11 of 16 officials favored higher benchmark U.S. interest rates by year-end. U.S.
President Donald Trump addressed the United Nations General Assembly, vowing to "totally destroy"
North Korea unless Pyongyang backs down from its nuclear challenge
The Fed meeting last week was among the most important event but failed to provide any decisive
trigger to the dollar or precious metals. The Fed kept rates unchanged but will start unwinding its $4.5
trillion balance sheet from October. The Fed will now allow maturing Treasuries and mortgagebacked
securities to run off its balance sheet from next month, in contrast to its ongoing practice of reinvesting
all of the proceeds. The details of the process have already been announced. When the unwinding starts,
the Fed will reduce reinvestments in Treasuries (TSY) at a rate of $6Bn/month Monday, September 25,
2017 Precious Metals Weekly Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. 2 and mortgage
backed securities (MBS) at $4Bn/month, totaling $10bn/month initially. It will increase the reinvestment
caps in steps of $10bn ($6TSY+$4MBS) at 3 month intervals over 12 months until it reaches a total
$50bn per month. The process is likely to continue for several years until the Fed attains an optimum
size of its balance sheet. On the rates front, the Fed kept the possibility of a December rate hike alive
despite the fact that it sees inflation lower this year. the Fed now expects core personal consumption
expenditures to come in at 1.5%-1.6% in 2017, down from prior expectations of 1.6%-1.7%.The 2018
dot-plot was unchanged with most members expecting 3 rate hikes next year. The new dot plot is slightly
more dovish in the long term with most members expecting rates to settle around 2.75%, down from 3%
5. in the previous forecasts. This suggests that rate hikes will be very gradual and may help gold prices find
support. Gold prices have however staged a retreat after touching $1360 earlier this month as the
incremental impact of geopolitical tensions has faded. After imposition of another round of sanctions on
North Korea, it test-fired another missile last week but markets saw a very limited reaction. The new UN
sanctions include a ban on exporting textiles, its second-biggest export and put limit of 2 million barrels
a year on refined petroleum product imports. While sabrerattling between UK and NK continues, we
believe that markets now need to see significant escalation to react as the initial risk-premium is already
built into prices. The other important driver for gold has been consistent weakness in the US dollar and
the direction of the dollar hasnāt changed decisively after the Fed meeting. The US dollar index remains
near multi-month lows and the weakness has been amplified by the excessive euro and GBP strength.
Central bank policies are back into focus as geo-political tensions have eased in the past few days. The
pound rallied on hints that a rate hike may be coming sooner than markets expected. The ECB will also
be ready with its plan for unwinding stimulus by the next meeting in October which will support the
euro. Source: Reuters Source: Reuters Precious Metals Weekly Please refer to the disclaimer at the end
of the report. 3 Lack of Inflation remains a challenge for the Fed but the latest inflation reading has
provided some hope. The headline CPI in the US touched 1.9% y/y in August, a seven month high while
core CPI grew at 1.7% y/y. Consequently, December rate hike odds have reached close to 70%. This
however came after five consecutive low readings of inflation data this year which means that it is still
too early to conclude that inflation is rebounding. If inflation remains elusive, the Fed will be forced to
go slower with further rate hikes. On the demand side, Gold ETFās saw inflows for a seventh straight
week following the price rally and SPDR holdings are up by 39 tonnes so far this month. Indian gold
prices continue to be at a discount but the discount has narrowed to $4 and the upcoming festive season
may see a pickup in gold demand. Silver ETFās on the other hand have seen outflows with holdings
down 380 tonnes this month
ā BASE METAL
LME base metals traded mixed last week as latest war of words between US and North Korea along with
monetary tightening signals from the US hurt global risk appetite. MCX base metals traded mixed in line
with trends in the international markets.
Aluminum prices traded firm adding over 25% YTD gains. Reports have indicated that 30% of
aluminium smelting capacity and 50% of alumina refining capacity may be cut in Henan, Shandong, and
Shanxi provinces of China if environmental measures are introduced. If China were to curtail capacity, it
is expected to be supportive of aluminium prices. Expectations of winter shutdowns and Chinese supply
reform are among the main reasons that prices are likely to remain firm. Additionally, the US
administration in April 2017 has announced that it would begin investigating whether aluminium
imports pose a threat to self-sufficiency in the US. This action may lead to higher import duties being
levied on aluminium. Both North America and Europe were facing short supply of aluminium and the
estimated global production in Q3 of 2017 would be balanced with consumption.
6. Base metals have been trading choppy in a range; with the short term bias still remains confusing. LME
witnessed a brief correction during the month and bounced back before the weekend after investors
slashed risk late last week on concerns about China's credit and escalating tensions over North Korea.
S&P downgraded Chinese credit rating which added to pressure on some metals. There was a general
feeling that the recent rally may have overshot and some retracement is therefore justifiable.
Nickel prices tumbled, as concerns about a slowdown in China weighed upon industrial metals along
with Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. 3 For any details contact: ShFE hiking trading
fees for the near month volatile contract. Driving the losses are fears that the economy in China is
slowing as the effects of government stimulus ebb and policy makers clamp down on speculation and
asset bubbles. Itās now a growing fear that China's mining industry will shrink if the government does
not cut it some slack in return for.Expectations of winter shutdowns and Chinese supply reform are
among the main reasons that prices are likely to remain firm. Additionally, the US administration in
April 2017 has announced that it would begin investigating whether aluminium imports pose a threat to
self-sufficiency in the US. This action may lead to higher import duties being levied on aluminium. Both
North America and Europe were facing short supply of aluminium and the estimated global production
in Q3 of 2017 would be balanced with consumption.
This, coupled with the increase in input cost, is likely to Monday, September 25, 2017 Please refer to the
disclaimer at the end of the report. 2 hold the price but uncertainty still remains on account of China
starting low-cost smelters, surfacing of unreported inventory, and buyers adopting a wait and watch
approach. For the short term, weakening Chinese fundamentals and the country's plans to shut down
smelting capacities would weigh on LME aluminium prices.
This, coupled with the increase in input cost, is likely to Monday, September 25, 2017 Please refer to the
disclaimer at the end of the report. 2 hold the price but uncertainty still remains on account of China
starting low-cost smelters, surfacing of unreported inventory, and buyers adopting a wait and watch
approach. For the short term, weakening Chinese fundamentals and the country's plans to shut down
smelting capacities would weigh on LME aluminium prices.Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda
is to speak at an event in Osaka. Few fed members have their speeches thru the week. Later The U.S. is
to produce reports on consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders and pending home
sales. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to deliver remarks in London. Fed Vice Chair
Stanley Fischer is also to speak at the same event. The U.S. is to release final figures for second quarter
growth as well as data on jobless claims. The UK is to publish figures on the current account and a final
estimate of second quarter growth.
ā ENERGY
WTI oil prices jumped 1.5 percent last week to close at $50.7 per barrel while MCX oil prices rose 3
percent to close at Rs.3287 per barrel. Despite rise in U.S. crude inventories, oil prices headed for its
largest third-quarter gain in 13 years after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC and its partners were
7. considering extending or deepening output cuts. OPEC's second-biggest producer Iraq said that the
group was discussing several options for its supply pact, including an extension beyond March and a
further output cut.
The OPEC meeting last week provided a few positive headlines but fell short of any actual
announcements. There was speculation that extension of the deal may be announced but OPEC left it for
its January 2018 meeting. There were no caps imposed on Libya or Nigeria but they pledged to
contribute to supply cuts when their production stabilizes. There was a discussion about monitoring
exports along with production but there was no concrete announcement on that front. Members
estimated that compliance to output cuts was in excess of 100% in September and that the oil market is
recovering strongly. On the supply side, OPEC indicated that output in August fell by 79,000 barrels a
day to 32.76 million, driven mainly by a decline in Libya, Gabon, Venezuela and Iraq. Libyaās crude oil
production fell by about 112,000 bpd, to 0.89 mbpd while Nigeria's output jumped by 138,000 barrels,
reaching 1.86 million bpd. The OPECās supply compliance rate was up to 82% in August from 75%
during July. Oil exports by OPEC were 25.19 million bpd in August, their lowest level since April. The
IEA on the other hand reported that global oil output fell by 720,000 bpd due to Monday, September 25,
2017 Energy Weekly 2 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. -15000 -10000 -5000 0
5000 10000 15000 20000 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17
Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Thousands EIA Crude stocks weekly Change unplanned outages and scheduled
maintenance, mainly in non-OPEC countries. This is the first decline in four months suggesting that the
oil market is slowly getting tighter. US production has jumped back to pre-hurricane levels at 9.51 mbpd
but growth seems to have plateaued if the rig count is an indication. The number of oil rigs in the US fell
by 5 last week, the third consecutive drop. US oil rig count is down by 12 so far in Q3 compared to sharp
increases in the first half of this year. The EIA has revised lower US oil production for 2017 from 9.35
million bpd to 9.25 million. The 2018 forecast was also revised lower from 9.91 million bpd to 9.84
million bpd. The growth in US production has been the biggest impediment to oil prices this year and
any slowdown on that front could provide a good lift to prices in the medium term. On the inventory
side, US oil inventories have been increasing for the past three weeks as the Hurricane impacted refinery
demand. However, the trend has been down and US oil inventories have declined by ~60 million barrels
since the end of March. Oil stocks are 1.2 million barrels below last year levels. US oil inventories are
back within the five-year range and are at their lowest since January 2016. In Europe, ARA product were
down 3.8% last week and are at par with year-ago levels at 40.34 million barrels. In August, OECD
stocks were 190 million barrels above the 5-year average compared to an excess of 219 million in July.
On the whole, fundamentals are now slowly turning supportive for oil prices as supply has started to
flatten at a time when demand remains robust. Brent prices have been supported as demand for prompt-
loading barrels at North Sea crude market has jumped and supply remains lower due to oilfield
maintenance. The WTI curve has also flattened in the last couple of weeks indicating a bullish market.
The monthly reports from IEA and OPEC also raised their demand forecasts higher for this year. The
IEA now expects global demand to increase by 1.6 mbpd this year while OPEC estimates global demand
8. growth by 1.42 mbpd. In the near term, demand could also see a lift as US refineries 8.4 8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4
300 400 500 600 700 800 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17
Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 US oil Rig count vs. Production U.S. Production(RHS) Rig count Energy Weekly
3 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of the report. For any details contact: Commodities Advisory
Desk - +91 22 3958 3600 commoditiesresearch@motilaloswal.com Disclaimer: restart after closure due
to Hurricane Harvey. US refinery utilization rebounded to 83.2% last week after dropping to 77.7% after
the Hurricane struck. This implies that nearly 3.6 mbpd of demand which was affected could now come
back.
WTI edged higher for a second straight week and prices have held above $50 in the last few days on
better OPEC compliance and dropping US rig count. Baker Hughes data show that the number of oil rigs
in the US fell by 5 to 744 last week. The OPEC meeting comments showed that the decision about
extending the supply cuts will be taken in January. OPEC/non-OPEC technical committee estimates that
compliance to output cuts crossed 100% in September. On the whole, the near term bias for oil remains
positive and prices sustaining above $50 will further support technical buying.
For natural gas, prices remain in a broad range on lack of definitive triggers. On the inventory side, gas
stocks total 3,408 Bcf, which is 4% less than the year-ago level and 2% more than the five-year average
for this week. Prices may find support this week as gas demand for power generation will increase as
Florida electricity generation returns to prehurricane levels.
9. MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
GOLDā
In the hourly chart, MCX Gold price has been moving within a downwards falling channel, which is a
bearish set up. In addition, price is on corrective mode for the last few trading session. In addition, RSI
has come out of its overbought zone and fallen below the rising trendline which suggests near term
weakness. Short term trend remains bearish; on the lower end price may move towards 29300 over the
short term.
10. SILVERā
In the hourly chart, MCX Silver price has been moving down with a lower top lower
bottom formation which suggests growing pessimism among the short term traders.
Moreover, price has fallen below 21 EMA on the daily chart which confirms the reversal
of the earlier uptrend. In addition, RSI has fallen below the rising trendline which suggests
near term weakness. Short term trend remains bearish; on the lower end price may move
towards 39000 over the short term.
11. COPPERā
In daily chart, the MCX Copper price has been taking a breather after steep fall from the
high of 451. The price has sustained below 21 EMA on the daily chart which suggests
weakness going forward. In addition, daily RSI is in bearish crossover and falling. Based
on the above analysis we can come out with a view that MCX Copper may continue to
move southwards; on the lower end price may reach towards 410 levels over the short term
13. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
ā SPICE COMPLEX
Turmeric futures (Oct) has broken the support near 7400 levels & may fall further towards 7200 levels.
At the spot markets in Erode, Sangli and Waranal the turmeric prices are quoting lower due to subdued
demand despite of the ongoing festival seasons. On the supply side, turmeric production for the next
season is estimated to be as good as last season with the producing regions in southern India
experiencing good rainfall in the past few weeks. Sowing of the commodity was last seen marginally
lower than the preceding year but the higher rainfall is expected to boost the yield. Jeera futures (Oct)
may witness a consolidation in the range of 19400-19800 levels. There is a tug-of-war amidst demand &
supply situation & cautiousness among the market participants. Jeera stocks in Unjha is pegged between
8-9 lakh bags (55kg each), whereas all over Gujarat the stocks may be around 10-11 lakh bags left for
the entire season. The monthly Jeera consumption is around 2.5-3 lakh bags, which means that country
needs around 12.5-15 lakh bags of Jeera until new crop starts from March. There has been some good
demand witnessed from local and upcountry buyers as stocks are left thin in the market to cater demand
for the remaining season, however buyers at the same time are concern about prospects of higher sowing
this season, starting from October. Coriander futures (Oct) is expected to take support near 4550 levels
& witness some lower level buying. The import of Coriander may slow down as domestic prices are
available at competitive rates after recent correction & on the other hand the domestic demand may
emerge around current level which may prevent any further fall in prices.Jeera and Turmeric at NCDEX
(Oct) extended losses due to profit booking. Dhaniya at NCDEX (Oct) traded down tracking supply
pressure in physical market. Cardamom at MCX (Oct) traded firm tracking strong fundamentals. Prices
of Turmeric are likely to resume its upswing and Cross Rs. 8000/qtl levels in coming sessions at
NCDEX (Oct) futures on expectation of lower output due to unsupportive weather conditions in major
growing areas. Prices of Jeera are likely to get support at lower levels and test resistance of Rs.20050/qtl
at NCDEX (Oct) due to low availability of stock in physical market and quality concerns. Downside in
Dhaniya futures is likely to remain limited on support of lower levels buying. Rs.4650/qtl is likely to act
as a god support at NCDEX (Oct). Subdued selling pressure in Indonesia on weaker production in
current harvest may have a positive impact on International Pepper market which supports prices in local
market. Below normal monsoon rainfall in major growing regions, lower carryover stocks and better
export demand likely to support Cardamom prices in near term.
ā OILSEED COMPLEX
Soybean futures (Oct) may continue to witness consolidation in the range of 3100- 3170 levels. This
oilseed is bouncing back after every correction, which depicts that in days to come, an upside
14. momentum can be seen supported by lower arrivals, last moment rains damaging the standing crop &
estimates of lower output. The farmers in Madhya Pradesh are unable to harvest the early variety of
soybean which has reached maturity, as the moisture content is high. Secondly, with the clouds hovering
over Madhya Pradesh, there are chances that early variety soybean crop will get damaged whereas this
rain will be beneficial for late variety soybean. Last but not the least, soybean output in Maharashtra for
2017-18 is expected to drop 22.69% on year to 35.74 lakh tonnes due to lower acreage and yield,
according to the first advance estimate data of the state agriculture department. Mustard futures (Oct) is
expected to go down further towards 3700- 3680 levels. This bearishness is owing to the limited demand
against ample stocks available in the spot markets. It is estimated that the stock of mustard seed with
stockiest and farmers is around 28 lakh tonnes which is sufficient to meet the demand of crushing
industry until the new crop arrives in February so millers are in no hurry to procure mustard seed in bulk
quantities. Soy oil futures (Oct) may witness a consolidation in the range of 675-690 levels, while CPO
futures (Oct) may trade with a downside bias in the range of 538-548 levels. At present, the demand of
edible oils in the retail markets are hand to mouth, despite of the upcoming festivals so wholesale traders
are not showing any interest in bulk purchases.Soybean at NCDEX (Oct) resumed its upswing tracking
firm USD/INR and positive global cues. Downside in Soybean likely to remain limited on support of
weaker Rupee and Festive demand. Palm oil imports by China from Malaysia during Sep 1-20 jumped
58.11% to 178,432 tons compared to 112,850 tons in the same period a year ago. Overall outlook of the
Oil and Oil Seeds complex looks bullish ahead of Festive season. RMSEED at NCDEX (Oct) is likely to
witness trend reversal above Rs. 3770/qtl level. NCDEX (Oct) Castor extended losses on profit booking.
Demand for Castor seed from consuming industries such as soap and shippers are robust, which likely to
keep Castor prices supportive. MCX (Sep) Mentha Oil traded sideways on profit booking; fall in prices
likely to cushion by robust export demand.
ā OTHER COMPLEX
Kapas futures (April) is likely to plunge towards 840 levels. Cotton prices are exhibiting a bearish tone
in the spot markets across Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh due to continued lackluster
demand from ginners. Ginners are not very aggressive in procuring cotton from the market due to
expectations of more correction ahead amid prospects of better production than last year. Secondly, the
spinners have sufficient stocks to meet their near term demand and hence off take in cotton is expected
to remain subdued. Further, poor off take in the yarn market amid sluggish retail sales of the garment
industry has curbed the buying enthusiasm of leading spinners other than small lots deals taking place on
an irregular basis or rather as and when needed. Mentha oil futures (Sept) may witness a consolidation in
the range of 1150-1200 levels. At the spot markets, though demand is slow, but downside in the
commodity is limited as crop and carry over from previous season was lower, which is likely to support
prices in days to come. At present, the business activity in Mentha oil market is said to be poor with
sellers more than buyerās due to sluggish export demand. Guar seed futures (Oct) is expected to trade
15. with an upside bias in the range of 3680-3820 levels. Crushers demand for Guar seed is hand-to-mouth
as they are waiting for more clearer picture about production, as market participants have pegged crop
around 7-8 lakh tons only due to lower acreage and poor yield amid adverse weather conditions during
growth stages. Demand for Guar gum said to slow since last few weeks, but the market
participants.NCDEX (Dec) Cocudakl witnessed recovery from lower levels due to short covering. Kapas
and Cotton prices at futures traded volatile due to short covering. Downside in Kapas likely to remain
limited from current levels on support of lower levels buying. NCDEX (Oct) Chana settled below crucial
support of Rs.5950/qtl which likely to create some pressure on prices in coming sessions. However,
downside likely o remain limited on support of festive demand. Guar futures traded down due to profit
booking. Strong support for Guar NCDEX (Oct) is seen at Rs.3580/qtl levels. Overall sentiments likely
to remain firm on improved export demand and Weak Rupee against US Dollar. Buy on dips is advised
to the traders. Gujarat's Groundnut sowing dropped to 1.6 million hectare till Sep 18 during current crop
year compared to 1.64 million hectare in the same period a year ago, data released by Directorate of
Agriculture.
16. NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
SOYABEAN
NCDEX Soybean (Oct) is consolidating in a narrow range of Rs.3050 - 3155 for the past two weeks and
either side breach could be decisive. Looking at the prior trend, short-term bias remains weak as long as
price stays below Rs.3155 / 3200 mark. Short-term supports are placed at Rs.3050 / 2980 level. Selling on
rise is advised.
17. GUARSEED
NCDEX Guarseed (Oct) may consolidate within Rs.3585 - 3950 zone. The 14-period RSI is flat and
closer to 50 mark indicating sideways movement. Strong supports are placed at Rs.3720 / 3585 whereas
short-term resistances are at Rs.3855 / 3950.
18. JEERA
NCDEX Jeera (Oct) continues to trade in a very narrow range of Rs.19500 - 20300 and there is no clear
direction yet. Strong supports are placed at Rs.19500 / 18750 whereas Rs.20000 / 20300 are expected to
act as resistances. Either side sustained breach of the mentioned levels could be decisive.
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