BULLION Gold fell on Monday as pressure from speculation over a potential increase in U.S. interest rates this month offset the metal's safe-haven appeal amid widespread weakness across other assets. Spot gold was down almost

2. MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 30-SEP-2016 108 107 106 105 105 104 104 103 102
COPPER 31-SEP-2015 329 327 326 325 323 321 318 315 312
CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-2016 2968 2946 2916 2905 2864 2842 2812 2800 2788
GOLD 05-OCT-2016 31032 30983 30898 30858 30780 30764 30715 30630 30568
LEAD 30-SEP-2016 132 131 129 128 126 125 123 121 119
NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2016 214 208 202 200 196 194 190 184 178
NICKEL 30-SEP-2016 690 680 670 666 660 656 650 640 630
SILVER 04-SEP-2015 46751 46114 45857 45565 45308 45016 44759 44465 43890
ZINC 05-DEC-2016 151 150 149 148 147 146 145 143 141
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 30-SEP-2016 111 109 108 107 106 105 104 101 99
COPPER 31-AUG-2015 352 343 334 329 319 314 308 301 297
CRUDE OIL 19-AUG-2015 3380 3286 3193 3085 2967 2901 2874 2814 2793
GOLD 05-OCT-2015 31496 31351 31082 30668 29850 28556 27691 26203 25852
LEAD 30-SEP-2015 138 136 136 132 128 126 124 122 119
NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015 224 215 212 201 195 190 186 181 176
NICKEL 30-SEP-2016 738 729 710 691 683 661 653 648 636
SILVER 05-DEC-2016 47515 46947 46524 45772 44484 43659 43059 42847 42048
ZINC 30-SEP-2016 157 154 151 147 145 143 141 139 137
Monday, 19 September 2016

3. WEEKLY MCX CALL
BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31117 TGT 31444 SL 30797
BUY CRUDEOIL OCT ABOVE 2999 TGT 3091 SL 2914
FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 29 AUG 2016 67.75` 67.55 67.35 67.15 67 66.80 66.60 66.40 66.20
EURINR 29 AUG 2016 75.97 75.85 75.63 75.40 75.10 74.90 74.70 74.50 74.30
GBPINR 29 AUG 2016 89.30 89.10 88.90 88.70 88.50 88.30 88.10 87.90 87.70
JPYINR 29 AUG 2016 66.60 66.40 66.20 66 65.80 65.60 65.40 65.20 65
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 29 AUG 2016 68.10 67.80 67.50 67.20 66.90 66.60 66.30 66 65.70
EURINR 29 AUG 2016 76.40 76.10 75.80 75.50 75.20 74.90 74.60 74.30 74
GBPINR 29 AUG 2016 89.70 89.40 89.10 88.80 88.50 88.20 87.90 87.40 87.10
JPYINR 29 AUG 2016 66.90 66.60 66.30 66 65.70 65.40 65.10 66.80 66.50
WEEKLY FOREX CALL
BUY GBPINE SEP ABOVE 88.90 TGT 89.60 SL 88.20
BUY EURINR SEP ABOVE 75.15 TGT 75.65 SL 74.64

4. NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-OCT-2016 674 666 658 654 650 646 642 634 626
SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-2016 3443 3380 3317 3285 3254 3222 3191 3128 3065
RMSEED 20-OCT-2016 4945 4865 4785 4735 4705 4655 4625 4545 4465
JEERAUNJHA 20-OCT-2016 18542 18292 18042 17898 17792 17648 17542 17292 17042
GUARSEED10 20-OCT-2016 4003 3913 3823 3768 3733 3678 3643 3553 3463
TMC 20-OCT-2016 7949 7653 7357 7177 7061 6881 6765 6469 6173
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-OCT-2016 694 679 664 657 649 642 634 629 604
SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-2016 3638 3502 3366 3309 3230 3173 3094 2958 2822
RMSEED 20-OCT-2016 5225 5040 4855 4770 4670 4585 4485 4300 4115
JEERAUNJHA 20-OCT-2016 19435 18850 18265 18010 17680 17425 17095 16510 15925
GUARSEED10 20-OCT-2016 4335 4133 3911 3812 3689 3590 3467 3245 3023
TMC 20-OCT-2016 8525 8013 7501 7249 6989 6737 6477 5965 5453
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL
BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 18000 TGT 18500 SL 17500
SELL GUARSEED OCT BELOW 3648 TGT 3544 SL 3751

5. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
BULLION✍
Gold fell on Monday as pressure from speculation over a potential increase in U.S. interest rates this
month offset the metal's safe-haven appeal amid widespread weakness across other assets. Spot gold
was down almost 0.3 percent at $ 1,324.15 an ounce by 1400 GMT, with U.S. gold futures GC cv1
losing 0.5 percent to $ 1,328. A chorus of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials kept
expectations alive for a September rate increase despite a recent spate of disappointing economic data.
Stocks and bonds fell to levels last seen immediately after Britain's Brexit vote on concerns that global
central banks' commitment to super-low interest rates and asset purchase programmes may be waning.
After Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren spoke on Friday, the chances of a rate rise in September
were seen at 30 percent, up from 24 percent before his comments. seems as if the risk-off sentiment
has turned over the past couple of hours. The market might be putting more emphasis on the hawkish
comments from the Fed," said Danske Bank senior analyst Jens Pedersen. Gold, often seen as a safe-
haven investment in times of geopolitical and financial uncertainty, benefited from the risk-averse
sentiment in early trade but later dipped into the red. "We think the Federal Reserve will indeed move
in September, mainly on account of the timing of the upcoming U.S. election, coupled with the fact
that, on aggregate, the economy is not as weak as most of the recent numbers suggest," Fed governor
Lael Brainard is scheduled to give a talk in Chicago later on Monday, a day before the central bank's
communications blackout takes effect in the build-up to next week's policy meeting. There is chance
for some more volatility ahead with Brainard's speech, Hedge funds and money managers increased
their net long position in COMEX gold contracts to a nine-week high in the week to Sept. 6 and also
raised a bullish stance in silver, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.
Gold prices inched higher for the first time in five sessions on Tuesday, as investors continued to
weigh up prospects for future U.S. interest rate increases following the latest comments from Federal
Reserve officials. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange tacked on $ 2.25, or 0.17%, to trade at $ 1,327.85 by 8:50AM ET. A day earlier, futures shed
$ 8.90, or 0.67%. In a speech on Monday, Fed Governor Lael Brainard warned against raising interest
rates too quickly. The comments came after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Friday that
low interest rates are increasing the chance of overheating the U.S. economy. Markets are pricing in a
15% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September 20-21 meeting, For December, odds stood at around
55%. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat
to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Also on the Comex, copper futures gained 0.6 cents, or
0.29%, to $ 2.106 a pound, as investors digested the latest round of Chinese economic data. China's

6. factory output and retail sales grew faster than expected in August, easing concerns over the health of
the world's second-largest economy.
Industrial production rose at an annualized rate of 6.3% in August, beating expectations for a 6.1%
increase, the General Administration of Customs said on Tuesday.
Retail sales also handily beat expectations, with growth accelerating to 10.6% from 10.2% a month
earlier, while fixed asset investment, which tracks construction activity, rose 8.1% last month, above
forecasts for an increase of 8.0%. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting
for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
ENERGY✍
The global oil market will show a surplus into next year, as an abrupt deterioration in demand growth
meets rising supply, pushing world inventories to yet another record high and confounding the
previous expectations of leading energy agencies. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday
forecast global supply would outpace demand well into next year, marking an about-face from its
assessment just one month ago that the market would essentially show no surplus for the remainder of
this year. Similarly, a monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on
Monday showed the world's largest producers expect their Non-OPEC rivals to pump even faster,
suggesting a hefty surplus may be on the cards in 2017.
"Our forecast in this month's report suggests that this supply-demand dynamic may not change
significantly in the coming months. As a result, supply will continue to outpace demand at least
through the first half of next year," the IEA said. Global refinery runs are expected to grow at their
slowest pace in at least a decade this year, which will curb appetite for crude oil, just as inventories
across the OECD rose to a fresh record high of 3.111 billion barrels, the report said. "With our more
pessimistic outlook for the second half of 2016 refining activity and revisions to crude supply, the
expected draws in the third quarter of 2016 are now lower, while the build in the fourth quarter of 2016
is higher," the IEA said. Global demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than the group initially
predicted. The IEA left its forecast for demand growth for 2017 unchanged from its prediction in June
at 1.2 million barrels per day, but cut its forecast for 2016 consumption growth to 1.3 million bpd,
from 1.4 million.
"The key demand change in this report is the erosion of 300,000 bpd from the third quarter of 2016's
global demand estimate, and the resulting removal of 100,000 bpd from the net 2016 forecast," the IEA
said.
Brent crude oil futures fell by around 2 percent on Tuesday to $ 47.30 a barrel, still showing a 70-
percent gain so far this year, but about half where it was two years ago.
Despite oil's collapse and resulting investment cuts, global oil production is still expanding, although
nowhere near the breakneck pace of 2015. High-cost OPEC producers have been hit particularly hard.
However, the loss has been more than made up for by OPEC. Saudi Arabia and Iran have each raised

7. oil output by over 1 million barrels a day since late 2014 when OPEC shifted strategy to defend market
share rather than price. OPEC forecast demand for its oil will average 32.48 million bpd in 2017, down
530,000 bpd from its previous forecast. "It seems the situation has deteriorated strongly in the eyes of
OPEC as well as the IEA,".Near-record OPEC output, and higher supply from outside, could make it
harder for OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and rival Russia to come up with steps to support the market.
Producers are expected to meet in Algeria on the sidelines of the Sept. 26-28 International Energy
Forum.
Oil fell on Tuesday after a series of predictions on demand growth that pointed to the global overhang
of unused inventories persisting for much longer than previously expected. The International Energy
Agency said that a sharp slowdown in global oil demand growth, coupled with ballooning inventories
and rising supply, means the crude market will be oversupplied at least through the first six months of
2017. That view marked a change from the agency's forecast a month ago, when it forecast supply and
demand broadly in balance over the rest of this year and expected inventories to fall swiftly. The IEA's
latest comments follow a surprisingly bearish outlook from OPEC on Monday. Brent crude was down
47 cents at $ 47.85 a barrel by 1340 GMT, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declining by 70
cents to $ 45.59. "It seems the situation has deteriorated strongly in the eyes of OPEC as well as the
IEA," said Commerzbank head of commodities strategy Eugen Weinberg.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see this price weakness continue for a while, because that was not on the
cards, in our opinion." Upbeat Chinese data on industrial output growth for August failed to lift oil
prices as the crude market remained in profit-taking mode, traders said. China's industrial output grew
the fastest in five months as demand for products from coal to cars rebounded thanks to higher
government spending and a year-long credit and property boom. Speculators in U.S. and Brent crude
futures took an axe to their long positions in the latest week, cutting the combined net speculative
length in the two contracts by 80 million barrels, according to PVM Oil Associates. "Given the bearish
fundamental backdrop, yesterday’s strength is not expected to be long-lived. Maybe this is what we are
already seeing this morning with the two main crude oil futures contracts trading ... lower," PVM Oil
Associates strategist Tamas Varga said in a note. "As for today and tomorrow, all eyes will be on the
weekly statistics on U.S. oil stocks to see whether last week’s huge fall in crude oil inventories was
just a one-off." U.S. crude inventory data is due on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Reuters poll forecast
that U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are likely to have risen last week after marking the largest
plunge since 1999 in the previous week.
U.S. natural gas futures declined on Tuesday, turning lower after approaching a two-month high amid
forecasts for warmer than normal temperatures across most parts of the continental U.S. in the days
ahead. Natural gas for delivery in October on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to an intraday
peak of $2.942 per million British thermal units, just below a two-month high of $2.944. It was last at

8. $2.897 by 10:39AM ET , down 1.8 cents, or 0.62%. A day earlier, gas futures surged 11.8 cents, or
4.22%, after updated weather forecasting models pointed to very warm late summer temperatures into
next week, boosting demand expectations for the cooling fuel. Demand for natural gas tends to rise in
the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air
conditioning.
Meanwhile, market players looked ahead to weekly supply data due on Thursday, which is expected to
show a build of approximately 66 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 9. That compares
with a gain of 36 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, 74 billion a year earlier and a five-year
average build of 69 billion cubic feet. Total gas in storage currently stands at 3.437 trillion cubic feet,
according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 5.7% higher than levels at this time a year
ago and 8.9% above the five-year average for this time of year. Despite the recent rally, gains are likely
to remain limited as traders react to the reality that higher summer demand for the commodity is
coming to an end. Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures
increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning. But with autumn due to start on
September 22, power burns to feed air conditioning demand have probably peaked for now, market
analysts said. Unless intense late-summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles could
possibly test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October.
COPPER✍
Amid a better trend at the spot market on rising demand from battery makers, lead rose 0.64 per cent
to Rs 118.60 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up positions. Furthermore, a firming
trend in base metals overseas supported the upside in metal prices.At the Multi Commodity Exchange,
lead for delivery in May was up 75 paise, or 0.64 per cent, at Rs 118.60 per kg, in a business turnover
of 46 lots.
Zinc futures traded higher by 0.32 per cent to Rs 127.15 per kg today as traders crated speculative
positions, tracking a firm trend overseas and uptick in demand in the domestic spot markets. At the
Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in current month traded higher by 40 paise, or 0.32 per
cent to Rs 127.15 per kg in a business turnover of 2,159 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in May
edged up by 30 paise, or 0.23 per cent to Rs 128.10 per kg in 84 lots
Nickel prices were up by Rs 8.60 to Rs 627.90 per kg in futures market today as speculators raised
their bets amid a firming trend overseas and domestic demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange,
nickel for delivery in May was trading notably higher by Rs 8.60, or 1.39 per cent, to Rs 627.90 per
kg, in a business turnover of 152 lots. The metal for delivery in April rose by Rs 8, or 1.30 per cent, to
trade at Rs 621.20 per kg in 4,199 lots.

9. NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
GLOBAL UPDATE✍
India’s output of pulses during the ongoing kharif season is likely to reach an all-time high of 8.22
million tonnes, almost 50 per cent more than last year. This could also mean a record crop in 2016-17.
The Centre’s target is 14.41 mt in the coming rabi season. If this happens, it would push the total
harvest to over 22 mt. The highest till date was 19.25 mt, in 2013-14. Output fell to 16.47 mt in 2015-
16 and 17.15 mt in 2014-15, due to drought. This year’s harvest is expected on the back on a good
southwest monsoon and higher price realisation by farmers. Pulses apart, overall farm production in
this kharif is expected to be a bumper one. Government announces MSP of Kharif Crops to be
applicable from 1st September, 2016 The Centre has decided that the Minimum Support Prices for
Kharif Crops grown in 2016 will be applicable from 1st September, 2016.
The decision of the Government has been conveyed to the Agriculture Secretaries of all States and
Union Territories by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare. The decision has been taken as
harvested crops sown in Kharif may reach the market even before October. The Government
announces MSPs in each season for major agricultural commodities to ensure remunerative prices to
the farmers for their produce. The MSP for Kharif Crops namely Paddy, Jowar, Bajra, Maize, Ragi,
Tur , Moong, Urad, Groundnut-in-shell, Soyabean, Sunflower Seed, Nigersed, Sesamum and Cotton
was announced on 1st June, 2016 before the sowing season to enable farmers to take a decision for
sowing a particular crop.
Centre to set up body to manage pulses buffer stock The government will soon invite tenders from
state-run and private companies to set up an entity to manage the proposed buffer stock of pulses, and
for their storage and disposal, a senior official said on Saturday. This follows the recommendation of a
panel headed by chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, which backed the setting up of a new
institution as a public private partnership to compete with and complement existing institutions to
procure, stock and dispose pulses. The government has already decided to create a two-million-tonne
buffer stock as authorities move to tackle the problem of shortages andprice spikes of the essential
protein item. The PMO had also recommended the ministry to explore the possibility of releasing
stock through central agencies such as Kendriya Bhandar and Safal. Sources said both FCI and Nafed
had also supported the need to set up a separate entity to deal with pulses. Experts said procurement of
pulses could also be outsourced to private agencies.
“Overall, the monsoon has been favourable to farmers this year. We have received good rains and
distribution was also good,” Union agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said. The earlier high for
total output was 265.04 mt in the 2013-14 crop year. This fell in 2014-15 and 2015-16 to 252.02 mt

10. and 253.23 mt, respectively. The government's target for 2016-17 is 270.10 mt, on hope of bountiful
rain. It has pegged paddy output at 108.5 mt, wheat at 96.5 mt and pulses at 24.5 mt. Paddy, oilseeds
and coarse cereals have all seen a rise in sowing area in this kharif, said the minister. Kharif sowing
started with onset of the southwest monsoon from June and harvesting will begin from next month.
The minister said he was urging states to promote pulses in the rabi season, starting October, too.
Unless farmers are assured of getting the announced Minimum Support Price, they will not be
encouraged to plant lentils in rabi. “It is for this reason, the government has started pulses
procurement,” he said.
ICE cotton bounced back from a near one percent drop initially to settle higher for the third straight
session on Thursday as forecasts for rain in the cotton-belt areas of the United States offset poor export
sales data. Weekly export sales report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed net upland
sales totaled 136,400 running bales of cotton for the week ended Sept. 8, compared with 344,500
running bales in the prior week. "Today, sales were poor, shipments were also poor and the surprise
was Pakistan and India bought almost no cotton," said Rogers Varner, president of Varner Brokerage in
Cleveland, Mississippi. Net sales of Pima cotton for 2016/2017 for India fell to 5,900 running bales
last week from 8,100 running bales in the week earlier, while those for Pakistan declined to 900
running bales from 2,100 running bales of the natural fiber during the same period. forecast for rain in
the cotton belt in the United States were supportive of prices, Varner added. The second month
December cotton contract on ICE Futures U.S. CTc2 settled up 0.19 cent, or 0.28 percent, at 67.72
cents per lb. It traded within a range of 66.82 and 67.95 cents a lb. The dollar index .DXY was down
0.05 percent. The Thomson Reuters Core Commodity CRB Index .TRJCRB , which tracks 19
commodities, was up 0.66 percent. Total futures market volume fell by 5,648 to 10,449 lots. Data
showed total open interest gained 906 to 231,339 contracts in the previous session. ICE cotton up as
rain forecasts offset weak export sales data.
In last burst, rains to scale up over central, south India over next fort night It may be too early to write
an epitaph about this year’s monsoon. Updated forecasts suggest that its unfolding tail may carry a
sting during the last two weeks. Feeding the hopes of weather watchers is raging typhoon ‘Malakas’ in
the north-west Pacific off Taiwan, which is seen building a pipeline of moisture into the Bay of
Bengal. The net result has been a rain-driving low-pressure area that crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast
and brought heavy rain to the neighbourhood over the past couple of days. This ‘low’ has weakened
over Telangana, but outlook by various weather models suggests that at least two more such ‘lows’
may form in the Bay before the season draws to a close. Obviously, they are expected to bring heavy
rain over the entire central and western India, as well as parts of the southern peninsula. Since the
rainfall normals for September are low, these spells should help cover the current deficit of 5 per cent,
if not turn in a small surplus. An extended range weather forecast by the Met Department, Indian
Council of Agricultural Research, and Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture all seemed to

11. lend support tothis scenario.
Sugar futures soar to 4-year highs, ending market stalemate Raw sugar futures broke out of months of
range-bound trading, climbing nearly 4% to near-four-year highs, supported by growing worries,
encouraged by Brazil concerns, over a supply squeeze. New York raw sugar futures for October
delivery surged to 21.36 cents a pound at one stage, the highest for a spot contract since October 2012,
before easing back to 21.18 cents a pound in late morning deal, up 3.4% on the day. The gains came as
Rabobank increased its forecast for next season's sugar deficit, the extent to which demand outstrips
supply. However, worries over Brazilian production, stoked by data on Thursday from industry group
Unica were also seen as fuelling the jump. Technical factors related to the forthcoming expiry of the
October contract at the end of this month were also seen as influencing the market, besides chart
signals.
Trading Margin on Sugar Futures to Rise Above 50% Market regulator Sebi could direct agri bourse
NCDEX to further raise trading margin on sugar to weed out speculative activity amid the recent
hardening of prices, a person aware of the development told ET. The front month futures contract shot
up 6.5% from . 3,665 a quintal in eight sesa low to ` sions through September 14. “Margins could be
raised next week itself,“ the person told ET on Friday. “A ban on sugar futures is not on the cards for
now,“ he added.He did not add the quantum of likely margin increment. Centre-South Brazil Aug 16-
31 sugar output down 11% on year Mills in Centre-South region of Brazil produced 2.54 mln tn sugar
in the second fortnight of August, down nearly 11% from a year ago, said the country's sugarcane
industry association, known by its Portuguese acronym UNICA. Mills in the region, which account for
more than 90% of Brazil's total sugar output, crushed 38.31 mln tn of sugarcane during Aug 16-31,
down 19.3% on year, UNICA said in a report released late Thursday. The sugar season in Brazil, the
world's largest producer and exporter of the sweetener, runs from April to March. In the season so far,
mills in the region have crushed 393.66 mln tn cane, up 6.4% on year and produced 22.42 mln tn
sugar, up from 19.15 mln tn a year ago, it said. Of the total sugarcane crushed so far, around 45.66%
was used for sugar production while 54.34% was used to make ethanol, the industry body said.
Centre-South Brazil has so far produced 16.46 mln ltr ethanol, slightly down from 16.48 mln ltr a year
ago. The futures contract of raw sugar on the Inter Continental Exchange rose following reports of a
fall insugar production in Brazil.

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