✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-03-2014 631 630 629 628 627 626 625 624 623
SYBEANIDR 20-03-2014 3420 3400 3380 3360 3340 3320 3300 3280 3260
RMSEED 20-04-2014 3390 3370 3350 3330 3300 3280 3260 3240 3220
JEERAUNJHA 20-03-2014 14800 14700 14600 14500 14400 14300 14200 14100 14000
CHANA 20-03-2014 3510 3490 3470 3450 3430 3410 3390 3360 3340
CASTORSEED 20-03-2014 4220 4180 4150 4120 4090 4060 4030 4000 3970
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-03-2014 635 633 631 629 626 624 620 618 616
SYBEANIDR 20-03-2014 3440 3410 3380 3350 3310 3280 3250 3210 3170
RMSEED 20-04-2014 3430 3400 3370 3340 3300 3270 3240 3210 3180
JEERAUNJHA 20-03-2014 15100 14900 14700 14500 14200 14000 13800 13600 13400
CHANA 20-03-2014 3560 3530 3500 3470 3440 3410 3380 3350 3320
CASTORSEED 20-03-2014 4270 4240 4210 4180 4150 4110 4080 4050 4000
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 27-02-2015 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109
COPPER 27-02-2015 347 346 345 344 343 341 339 338 337
CRUDE OIL 19-02-2015 2950 2930 2910 2890 2870 2840 2820 2800 2780
GOLD 03-04-2015 28000 27900 27800 27700 27600 27500 27400 27300 27200
LEAD 27-02-2015 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109
NATURAL GAS 24-02-2015 170 169 168 167 166 165 164 163 162
NICKEL 27-02-2015 945 940 935 930 924 919 915 910 905
SILVER 05-03-2015 38000 37900 37800 37700 37600 37500 37400 37300 37200
ZINC 27-02-2015 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 27-02-2015 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104
COPPER 27-02-2015 351 349 347 345 342 340 338 336 334
CRUDE OIL 19-02-2015 2980 2950 2910 2880 2850 2810 2780 2750 2710
GOLD 03-04-2015 28200 28000 27800 27600 27400 27200 27000 26800 26600
LEAD 27-02-2015 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104
NATURAL GAS 24-02-2015 173 171 169 167 165 163 161 159 157
NICKEL 27-02-2015 970 950 930 910 890 870 850 830 810
SILVER 05-03-2015 38300 38100 37900 37700 37500 37200 37000 36800 36600
ZINC 27-02-2015 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 124 122
✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted
265,000 for the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000, the US Labor
Department said. It was the biggest weekly decline since November 2012.
• Annual inflation in Germany turned negative in January for the first time since the
height of the global financial crisis in 2009,suggesting the euro zone rate could drop
further and possibly vindicating the ECB's bond buying program.
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded higher by 0.3 percent hovering close to more than 11-year
highs against the other major currencies on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve signaled that
interest rates could start to rise around mid-year. US Unemployment Claims fell to 265,000 in
the last week from 308,000 in the prior week. Pending Home Sales plunged by 3.7 percent in
December as against a gain of 0.6 percent in November.
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7 percent owing to month-end dollar demand from
importers, mainly oil refiners. Also, appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies
overseas acted as a negative factor.
However, sharp losses were cushioned as strong foreign capital inflows into equity market
restricted the rupee's fall. The currency touched an intra-day low of 61.97 and closed at 61.79
on Thursday.
PRECIOUS METAL
Silver dropped 6.4 percent to $16.81 an ounce, falling below the 100- day moving average and
marking its biggest one-day decline since June2013. US economic data showed the number of
Americans filing new unemployment claims tumbled to the lowest level in almost 15 years last
week. The fall in U.S. unemployment benefit applications far exceeded economists'
expectations and came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a positive tone and kept
expectations of an interest rate rise this year on track.
Gold prices tumbled more than 2 percent to a two-week low on Thursday, while silver saw its
biggest decline in 1-1/2 years after the Federal Reserve signaled it was still on track to lift U.S.
interest rates this Year. The Federal Reserve is confident about growth and optimism in the US
economy, although it has taken a patient stance to raise the interest rates. The prospects of
higher interest rates in the US will cause a shift from safe haven to other risk assets like equities
and exert downside pressure on the pressure metals. In Wednesday's policy statement, the Fed
said the U.S. economy was expanding "at a solid pace" but reiterated it would be patient in
deciding when to increase benchmark borrowing costs. The Fed said it would take "financial
and international developments" into account when determining when to raise rates, referencing
global markets for the first time since January
BASE METAL
Copper and other metals prices fell on Thursday on worries about excess supply and after U.S.
central bank authorities gave more signals of a looming rate hike. Inventories of both copper
and nickel in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses continued to increase on Tuesday
with nickel hitting a record, evidence of the ample supply. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday
said the U.S. economy was expanding "at a solid pace" with strong job gains, in a signal that
the central bank remains on track with plans to raise interest rates this year.
Base metals traded lower yesterday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would stick to plans
for a rate hike this year, drawing back liquidity that has underpinned metals. Also, expectation
of a stronger U.S. dollar boosted by good economic data from the United States acted as a
negative factor.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded lower in line with weakness in the international
markets.
News that top metals consumer China plans to cut its economic growth target to the lowest in
11 years at around 7 percent in 2015 also tainted sentiment. In a signal of dwindling demand for
physical metal in China that could undermine LME prices, physical copper in the local market
was trading at a discount to the front month ShFE futures contract on Wednesday. LME copper
and nickel inventories climbed again on Thursday, adding 2,775 tonnes and 1,836 tonnes
respectively. Copper stocks are up more than a third so far this month and nickel touched a
record at 425,562 tonnes. Copper failed to get much support even after three industry sources
told Reuters that China's stock piler plans to buy about 200,000 tonnes of refined copper in
2015 from the international market.
ENERGY
U.S. natural gas futures ended down 4.3 percent on Thursday after earlier falling to a fresh
2012 low on a smaller-than-expected storage draw despite forecasts calling for a little more
cold over the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled
94 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week, the least for that week since 2010. That fell
short of analysts' estimates for a draw of 112 bcf in a Reuters poll, the 219-bcf decrease in the
same week a year ago and the five year average draw of 168 bcf. Thomson Reuters Analytic
said the latest Global Forecast System weather model for the lower 48 U.S. states called for a
little more cold over the next two weeks with an expected 495 heating degree days
Global oil prices firmed slightly on Thursday but not before U.S. crude hit a near six-year low
and benchmark Brent pared gains on data showing fresh additions to already record-high U.S.
Inventories of U.S. crude were already at record highs for the week ended Jan. 23, according to
government data issued on Wednesday. Last week's build alone was almost 9 million barrels,
taking stockpiles to nearly 407 million, the highest level since the government began keeping
such records in 1982. . oil inventories. Oil prices had risen broadly earlier in the day after
preliminary U.S. Data showed weekly jobless claims at a near 15-year low, indicating further
strength in the world's largest economy. (Full Story) But crude futures in New York fell to an
April 2009 bottom by midmorning, and only rose toward the close on short-covering. Prices
tumbled after a report by oil services firm Genscape showed fresh builds of 1.6 million barrels
at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude in the period of Jan. 23 through Jan. 27.
Inventories of U.S. crude were already at record highs for the week ended Jan. 23, according to
government data issued on Wednesday. Last week's build alone was almost 9 million barrels,
taking stockpiles to nearly 407 million, the highest level since the government began keeping
such records in 1982.
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
RM SEED
• Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the
previous year.
• Latest sowing data shows, RM Seed was sowed in 6.49 million hectares across India vs.
7.04 million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year.
A mixed trend was noted for RMSeed as markets recovered from the lower levels. Reports of
skies clearing up over growing states of Rajasthan could enable a recovery in market
sentiments. Once the rains recede, markets are likely to pick up as demand for Mustard Oil
remains strong in Indian markets.
Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm.
Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool
weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in
some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments.
As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi A mixed trend was noted for
RMSeed as markets recovered from the lower levels. Reports of skies clearing up over growing
states of Rajasthan could enable a recovery in market sentiments. Once the rains recede,
markets are likely to pick up as demand for Mustard Oil remains strong in Indian markets.
Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm.
Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool
weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in
some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments.
As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 24
December was 26.40 lakh ha vs 29.73 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of
29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains.
Farmer are reportedly shift-ing to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due
to the high Temperature.
JEERA
Markets continued to trade weak for Jeera as the rains in Gujarat over last few days were
reportedly good for the standing crop. However, with skies expected to clear, some recovery
cannot be ruled out as exports too start rising at these lower levels. Lower sowing area and
good export demand are already likely to keep long term sentiments Bullish.
Rains in growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan would be beneficial for the standing crop
productivity and that is preventing any strong recovery in prices. Lower sowing area and
expected fall in production would however keep long term Bullish sentiments intact. Exports
too have risen in the mandis.
As per latest Govt reports, in Guja-rat, normal area is approximately 388,000 hectares. Till
5.1.2015, only 2.64 lakh ha have sown as compared to 4.54 lakh ha last year. Sowing area
during current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to lower price as compared
to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Cumin output is expected to fall
steeply in Gujarat this year. Output was 3.46 lakh tons in the state last year but may fall this
year as acreage is slashed by 42%. However, yield is expected to improve after the rainfall that
the state received recently. Still, there is less probability of the output to cross 2 lakh tons.
The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain
high in coming months too – which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the
commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amidst adverse weather conditions in growing
areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term
CHANA
Chana rates firmed up by end of the day as prospects of drier weather in the growing states in
coming days supported the market sentiments. The recent rains in growing areas in Rajasthan,
MP and UP are report-edly beneficial for the standing crop.
However, lower sowing reports and expectations of a pick up in demand at the lower levels are
likely to support the prices in coming weeks. Demand will pick up as skies clear. Extending
Duty-free import for Pulses till March 31 may prevent strong uptrend. But a fall in Rabi sowing
area for Rabi Pulses and lower International production prospects could support prices in
medium to long term.
As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne
during 2014 from last year. Reports from Cana-da indicate chickpea production there expected
to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower
yield. Reports from Australia indi-cate a 22.5% fall in Pulses produc-tion and more than 30%
fall in Chick Peas production in 2014-15 vs that in 2013-14.
According to Ministry of Agriculture, total rabi pulses acreage till Jan. 16,2015 is down by 11%
to 133.41 lakh ha as compared with last year’s area coverage of 149.17 lakh ha during the
corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down by 16% to 81.98 Lakh ha
against 98.16 lakh ha in same corresponding week during last year
REFI. SOYA
• Indian oilseed complex prices closed lower yesterday on weak overseas prices. Sharp
weakness in Rupee was a positive force.
• According to reports, Indian Soy meal exports in 2014-15 could hit its lowest level
since 1988-89 at 800,000 MT due to higher global Soy supplies.
• Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates
Indian Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COOIT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17
million MT.
• Soy meal exports from India rose to 193,832 MT in December from 110,806 MT in
November India's oil meal exports in December 2014 were 389K MT vs. 188K MT in
previous month.
• Veg. oil imports in December 2014 were at 1.12 million MT vs. 1.05 million MT in Dec
2013.
lower levels as demand started rising in the mandis at these lower levels. Traders anticipate
further fall may be limited and a moderate uptrend can be observed over next few days. Good
demand persisted in domestic markets.
The recent hike in Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil would have a
medium term Bullish impact on prices—as per sources. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked
from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%.
The total imports of vegetable oil surged near 16% during the oil year 2014-15. As per the
Solvent Extractors Association of India, the total imports of edible and non edible vegetable
oils import rose near 16% to 23.39 lakh tons, while it was 20.12 lakh tons in the corresponding
period a year ago. Rise in imports of vegetable oil has been recorded near 7% in only in
December.
U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is estimated at 117.4 million tons, up 0.3 million from last
month. Soybean production is estimated at 3,969 million bushels, up 11 million bushels with
lower harvested area more than offset with increased yields. Harvest-ed area is estimated at
83.1 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast. The soybean yield is estimated
at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month.
Indian production is reduced on lower yields reflecting late planting and short monsoon season.
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Commodity report | ways2 capital | 02 feb 2015

  • 2.
    ✍ NCDEX DAILYLEVELS DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-03-2014 631 630 629 628 627 626 625 624 623 SYBEANIDR 20-03-2014 3420 3400 3380 3360 3340 3320 3300 3280 3260 RMSEED 20-04-2014 3390 3370 3350 3330 3300 3280 3260 3240 3220 JEERAUNJHA 20-03-2014 14800 14700 14600 14500 14400 14300 14200 14100 14000 CHANA 20-03-2014 3510 3490 3470 3450 3430 3410 3390 3360 3340 CASTORSEED 20-03-2014 4220 4180 4150 4120 4090 4060 4030 4000 3970 ✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-03-2014 635 633 631 629 626 624 620 618 616 SYBEANIDR 20-03-2014 3440 3410 3380 3350 3310 3280 3250 3210 3170 RMSEED 20-04-2014 3430 3400 3370 3340 3300 3270 3240 3210 3180 JEERAUNJHA 20-03-2014 15100 14900 14700 14500 14200 14000 13800 13600 13400 CHANA 20-03-2014 3560 3530 3500 3470 3440 3410 3380 3350 3320 CASTORSEED 20-03-2014 4270 4240 4210 4180 4150 4110 4080 4050 4000
  • 3.
    ✍ MCX DAILYLEVELS DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 27-02-2015 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 COPPER 27-02-2015 347 346 345 344 343 341 339 338 337 CRUDE OIL 19-02-2015 2950 2930 2910 2890 2870 2840 2820 2800 2780 GOLD 03-04-2015 28000 27900 27800 27700 27600 27500 27400 27300 27200 LEAD 27-02-2015 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 NATURAL GAS 24-02-2015 170 169 168 167 166 165 164 163 162 NICKEL 27-02-2015 945 940 935 930 924 919 915 910 905 SILVER 05-03-2015 38000 37900 37800 37700 37600 37500 37400 37300 37200 ZINC 27-02-2015 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 ✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 27-02-2015 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 COPPER 27-02-2015 351 349 347 345 342 340 338 336 334 CRUDE OIL 19-02-2015 2980 2950 2910 2880 2850 2810 2780 2750 2710 GOLD 03-04-2015 28200 28000 27800 27600 27400 27200 27000 26800 26600 LEAD 27-02-2015 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 NATURAL GAS 24-02-2015 173 171 169 167 165 163 161 159 157 NICKEL 27-02-2015 970 950 930 910 890 870 850 830 810 SILVER 05-03-2015 38300 38100 37900 37700 37500 37200 37000 36800 36600 ZINC 27-02-2015 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 124 122
  • 4.
    ✍ MCX -WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS • Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 for the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000, the US Labor Department said. It was the biggest weekly decline since November 2012. • Annual inflation in Germany turned negative in January for the first time since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009,suggesting the euro zone rate could drop further and possibly vindicating the ECB's bond buying program. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded higher by 0.3 percent hovering close to more than 11-year highs against the other major currencies on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year. US Unemployment Claims fell to 265,000 in the last week from 308,000 in the prior week. Pending Home Sales plunged by 3.7 percent in December as against a gain of 0.6 percent in November. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7 percent owing to month-end dollar demand from importers, mainly oil refiners. Also, appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies overseas acted as a negative factor. However, sharp losses were cushioned as strong foreign capital inflows into equity market restricted the rupee's fall. The currency touched an intra-day low of 61.97 and closed at 61.79 on Thursday. PRECIOUS METAL Silver dropped 6.4 percent to $16.81 an ounce, falling below the 100- day moving average and marking its biggest one-day decline since June2013. US economic data showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims tumbled to the lowest level in almost 15 years last week. The fall in U.S. unemployment benefit applications far exceeded economists' expectations and came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a positive tone and kept expectations of an interest rate rise this year on track. Gold prices tumbled more than 2 percent to a two-week low on Thursday, while silver saw its biggest decline in 1-1/2 years after the Federal Reserve signaled it was still on track to lift U.S. interest rates this Year. The Federal Reserve is confident about growth and optimism in the US economy, although it has taken a patient stance to raise the interest rates. The prospects of higher interest rates in the US will cause a shift from safe haven to other risk assets like equities and exert downside pressure on the pressure metals. In Wednesday's policy statement, the Fed said the U.S. economy was expanding "at a solid pace" but reiterated it would be patient in deciding when to increase benchmark borrowing costs. The Fed said it would take "financial
  • 5.
    and international developments"into account when determining when to raise rates, referencing global markets for the first time since January BASE METAL Copper and other metals prices fell on Thursday on worries about excess supply and after U.S. central bank authorities gave more signals of a looming rate hike. Inventories of both copper and nickel in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses continued to increase on Tuesday with nickel hitting a record, evidence of the ample supply. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said the U.S. economy was expanding "at a solid pace" with strong job gains, in a signal that the central bank remains on track with plans to raise interest rates this year. Base metals traded lower yesterday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would stick to plans for a rate hike this year, drawing back liquidity that has underpinned metals. Also, expectation of a stronger U.S. dollar boosted by good economic data from the United States acted as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded lower in line with weakness in the international markets. News that top metals consumer China plans to cut its economic growth target to the lowest in 11 years at around 7 percent in 2015 also tainted sentiment. In a signal of dwindling demand for physical metal in China that could undermine LME prices, physical copper in the local market was trading at a discount to the front month ShFE futures contract on Wednesday. LME copper and nickel inventories climbed again on Thursday, adding 2,775 tonnes and 1,836 tonnes respectively. Copper stocks are up more than a third so far this month and nickel touched a record at 425,562 tonnes. Copper failed to get much support even after three industry sources told Reuters that China's stock piler plans to buy about 200,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2015 from the international market. ENERGY U.S. natural gas futures ended down 4.3 percent on Thursday after earlier falling to a fresh 2012 low on a smaller-than-expected storage draw despite forecasts calling for a little more cold over the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 94 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week, the least for that week since 2010. That fell short of analysts' estimates for a draw of 112 bcf in a Reuters poll, the 219-bcf decrease in the same week a year ago and the five year average draw of 168 bcf. Thomson Reuters Analytic said the latest Global Forecast System weather model for the lower 48 U.S. states called for a little more cold over the next two weeks with an expected 495 heating degree days Global oil prices firmed slightly on Thursday but not before U.S. crude hit a near six-year low and benchmark Brent pared gains on data showing fresh additions to already record-high U.S.
  • 6.
    Inventories of U.S.crude were already at record highs for the week ended Jan. 23, according to government data issued on Wednesday. Last week's build alone was almost 9 million barrels, taking stockpiles to nearly 407 million, the highest level since the government began keeping such records in 1982. . oil inventories. Oil prices had risen broadly earlier in the day after preliminary U.S. Data showed weekly jobless claims at a near 15-year low, indicating further strength in the world's largest economy. (Full Story) But crude futures in New York fell to an April 2009 bottom by midmorning, and only rose toward the close on short-covering. Prices tumbled after a report by oil services firm Genscape showed fresh builds of 1.6 million barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude in the period of Jan. 23 through Jan. 27. Inventories of U.S. crude were already at record highs for the week ended Jan. 23, according to government data issued on Wednesday. Last week's build alone was almost 9 million barrels, taking stockpiles to nearly 407 million, the highest level since the government began keeping such records in 1982. NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS RM SEED • Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year. • Latest sowing data shows, RM Seed was sowed in 6.49 million hectares across India vs. 7.04 million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year. A mixed trend was noted for RMSeed as markets recovered from the lower levels. Reports of skies clearing up over growing states of Rajasthan could enable a recovery in market sentiments. Once the rains recede, markets are likely to pick up as demand for Mustard Oil remains strong in Indian markets. Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm. Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments. As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi A mixed trend was noted for RMSeed as markets recovered from the lower levels. Reports of skies clearing up over growing states of Rajasthan could enable a recovery in market sentiments. Once the rains recede, markets are likely to pick up as demand for Mustard Oil remains strong in Indian markets. Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm. Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool
  • 7.
    weather in growingstates keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments. As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 24 December was 26.40 lakh ha vs 29.73 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of 29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains. Farmer are reportedly shift-ing to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due to the high Temperature. JEERA Markets continued to trade weak for Jeera as the rains in Gujarat over last few days were reportedly good for the standing crop. However, with skies expected to clear, some recovery cannot be ruled out as exports too start rising at these lower levels. Lower sowing area and good export demand are already likely to keep long term sentiments Bullish. Rains in growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan would be beneficial for the standing crop productivity and that is preventing any strong recovery in prices. Lower sowing area and expected fall in production would however keep long term Bullish sentiments intact. Exports too have risen in the mandis. As per latest Govt reports, in Guja-rat, normal area is approximately 388,000 hectares. Till 5.1.2015, only 2.64 lakh ha have sown as compared to 4.54 lakh ha last year. Sowing area during current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to lower price as compared to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Cumin output is expected to fall steeply in Gujarat this year. Output was 3.46 lakh tons in the state last year but may fall this year as acreage is slashed by 42%. However, yield is expected to improve after the rainfall that the state received recently. Still, there is less probability of the output to cross 2 lakh tons. The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain high in coming months too – which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amidst adverse weather conditions in growing areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term
  • 8.
    CHANA Chana rates firmedup by end of the day as prospects of drier weather in the growing states in coming days supported the market sentiments. The recent rains in growing areas in Rajasthan, MP and UP are report-edly beneficial for the standing crop. However, lower sowing reports and expectations of a pick up in demand at the lower levels are likely to support the prices in coming weeks. Demand will pick up as skies clear. Extending Duty-free import for Pulses till March 31 may prevent strong uptrend. But a fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses and lower International production prospects could support prices in medium to long term. As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year. Reports from Cana-da indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield. Reports from Australia indi-cate a 22.5% fall in Pulses produc-tion and more than 30% fall in Chick Peas production in 2014-15 vs that in 2013-14. According to Ministry of Agriculture, total rabi pulses acreage till Jan. 16,2015 is down by 11% to 133.41 lakh ha as compared with last year’s area coverage of 149.17 lakh ha during the corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down by 16% to 81.98 Lakh ha against 98.16 lakh ha in same corresponding week during last year REFI. SOYA • Indian oilseed complex prices closed lower yesterday on weak overseas prices. Sharp weakness in Rupee was a positive force. • According to reports, Indian Soy meal exports in 2014-15 could hit its lowest level since 1988-89 at 800,000 MT due to higher global Soy supplies. • Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COOIT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17 million MT. • Soy meal exports from India rose to 193,832 MT in December from 110,806 MT in November India's oil meal exports in December 2014 were 389K MT vs. 188K MT in
  • 9.
    previous month. • Veg.oil imports in December 2014 were at 1.12 million MT vs. 1.05 million MT in Dec 2013. lower levels as demand started rising in the mandis at these lower levels. Traders anticipate further fall may be limited and a moderate uptrend can be observed over next few days. Good demand persisted in domestic markets. The recent hike in Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil would have a medium term Bullish impact on prices—as per sources. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%. The total imports of vegetable oil surged near 16% during the oil year 2014-15. As per the Solvent Extractors Association of India, the total imports of edible and non edible vegetable oils import rose near 16% to 23.39 lakh tons, while it was 20.12 lakh tons in the corresponding period a year ago. Rise in imports of vegetable oil has been recorded near 7% in only in December. U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is estimated at 117.4 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month. Soybean production is estimated at 3,969 million bushels, up 11 million bushels with lower harvested area more than offset with increased yields. Harvest-ed area is estimated at 83.1 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast. The soybean yield is estimated at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Indian production is reduced on lower yields reflecting late planting and short monsoon season.
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