The document provides daily and weekly technical analysis and market review for various commodities traded on MCX and NCDEX exchanges in India. For crude oil, support is seen at Rs. 3145 and Rs. 3070, with resistance at Rs. 3300. Gold support is at Rs. 29750, with resistance at Rs. 30200 and Rs. 30700. In NCDEX, cardamom and jeera traded positively while guar complex, cotton and coriander traded lower. The technical outlook is bullish for crude oil and gold if key support levels are respected.

2. MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 29- SEP-2017 136.40 135.40 134.40 133.40 132.40 131.40 130.40 129.40 128.40
COPPER 30- NOV-2017 430.20 428.20 424.20 422.20 420.20 418.20 416.20 414.20 412.20
CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-17 3300 3270 3235 3219 3191 3180 3160 3140 3120
GOLD 05-OCT--2017 30500 30350 30200 29999 29907 29800 29700 29600 29500
LEAD 29- SEP-2017 153.30 152.20 151.20 150.20 149.30 148.30 147.30 146.30 145.30
NATURAL GAS 26-SEP-2017 209.90 206.10 202.20 199.90 194.80 193.10 191.10 189.10 187.10
NICKEL 29- SEP-2017 734.20 728.20 721.20 714.20 707.20 700.10 693.10 685.10 679.10
SILVER 05-JUL-2017 41999 41700 41400 41191 40911 40711 40511 40311 40111
ZINC 29- DEC-2017 198.10 197.10 196.10 195.10 194.10 193.10 192.10 191.10 190.10
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 29- SEP-2017 140.40 138.40 136.40 134.40 132.40 130.40 128.40 126.20 124.20
COPPER 30- JUN-2017 438.20 434.20 430.20 424.20 420.20 416.20 412.20 408.20 404.20
CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-17 3425 3375 3300 3235 3191 3160 3120 3080 3040
GOLD 05-OCT--2017 31100 30850 30500 30200 29907 29700 29500 29300 29100
LEAD 29- SEP-2017 157.30 155.30 153.30 151.20 149.30 147.30 145.30 143.30 141.30
NATURAL GAS 26-SEP-2017 215.9 212.90 209.90 202.20 194.80 191.10 187.10 184.10 181.10
NICKEL 29- SEP-2017 752.00 741.10 734.20 721.20 707.20 693.10 679.10 651.10 631.10
SILVER 05-JUL-2017 42999 42499 41999 41400 40911 40511 40111 39699 39499
ZINC 29- DEC-2017 202.10 200.10 198.10 196.10 194.10 192.10 190.10 188.10 186.10
Monday 18 September 2017

3. FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 27-SEP-17 64.80 64.65 64.50 64.35 64.18 64.05 63.91 63.76 63.61
EURINR 27-SEP-17 77.10 76.96 76.81 76.66 76.50 76.35 76.20 76.03 75.90
GBPINR 27-SEP-17 87.70 87.50 87.30 87.10 86.90 86.70 86.50 86.30 86.10
JPYINR 27-SEP-17 57.98 57.88 57.78 57.68 57.58 57.48 57.38 57.28 57.18
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 27-SEP-17 65.30 65.00 64.80 64.50 64.18 63.91 63.61 63.31 63.01
EURINR 27-SEP-17 77.90 77.50 77.10 76.81 76.50 76.20 75.90 75.50 75.10
GBPINR 27-SEP-17 88.30 88.00 87.70 87.30 86.90 86.50 86.10 85.70 85.10
JPYINR 27-SEP-17 58.40 58.20 57.98 57.78 57.58 57.38 57.18 56.98 56.78

4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Spot gold prices declined 2 percent last week to close at $1319.2 per ounce while MCX, gold prices
declined 1.5 percent to close at Rs.29989 per 10 gms. North Korea's latest missile launch over Japan
triggered safe-haven buying, but gains were limited as strong U.S. inflation data raised the spectre of
another interest rate hike. Prices also declined after a European Central Bank (ECB) official called for
scaling back the bank's stimulus program. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on
Sunday the U.N. Security Council has run out of options on containing North Korea's nuclear
programme and the United States may have to turn the matter over to the Pentagon. silver prices
declined 1.9 percent last week to close at $17.7 per ounce in line with decline in gold prices while
weakness in base metals also led to the fall. North Korea fired a missile on Friday that flew over Japan’s
northern Hokkaido far out into the Pacific Ocean, South Korean and Japan, further ratcheting up tensions
after Pyongyang’s recent test of a powerful nuclear bomb. Consumer prices in the US increased 1.9%
yoy in August, above 1.7% in July and expectations of 1.8%. It is the highest inflation rate in three
months. While, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell by 14
thousand to 284 thousand in the week ended September 9th, well below market expectations of 300
thousand. The Bank of England voted by seven to two to keep the Bank Rate at a record low of 0.25
percent on September 14th, 2017, as widely expected, saying estimates of private final demand were
softer than anticipated, policymakers however agreed that some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is
likely to be appropriate over coming months in order to return inflation sustainably to target rate. Data
release from China yesterday, disappointed as industrial production rose 6.0% yoy in August 2017,
following a 6.4% rise in July, missing expectations of 6.6%, the weakest gain in industrial production
since December. Non-farm fixed asset investment in China rose 7.8 percent year-on-year to CNY
394,150 billion in January to August of 2017, slowing from 8.3 percent rise in the first seven months of
the year and missing market estimates of a 8.2 percent rise. Retail sales on the other hand rose 10.1
percent from a year earlier in August of 2017, following a 10.4 percent increase in the previous month
and missing market consensus of 10.5 percent. It was the weakest gain in retail trade since February U.S.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday that if China doesn’t follow the United Nations
sanctions approved on North Korea, he will seek new financial sanctions on Beijing to cut off access to
the U.S. financial system. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR
Gold Shares, rose 1.2 tonnes on Monday, data from the fund showed, after three days of outflows. After
gaining consecutively for three weeks on a combination of supportive factors, gold prices consolidated
on expected lines. After the new sanctions against North Korea announced by the UN on Monday, the
uncertainities were high and the North Korea one again lested another missile after warning earlier that if
the US will impose fresh sanctions than be ready for more “gifts”. In the wake of heightened
uncertiniaties we expect gold prices to remain broadly supported; however some consolation in the short
term can be seen ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. In the economic agenda today retail and core

5. retail sales will be released from US, ahead of the next week’s FOMC policy meet.
WTI oil prices 5 percent last week to close at $49.9 per barrel while MCX oil prices rose 4.8 percent to
close at Rs.3191 per barrel. The dollar weakened and after a string of reports forecast the market would
tighten further as fuel demand increased. On Wednesday, the IEA said a global oil glut was shrinking
thanks to strong European and U.S. demand, as well as production declines in OPEC and non-OPEC
countries. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a build of 5.9 million barrels of
crude last week, exceeding expectations.Brent is heading for a 2.6 percent gain and a third consecutive
weekly rise. The rebound in the prices was also due to OPEC and its allies who are discussing extending
production cuts past the end of March by more than three months as the global glut drains slower than
expected. Separately, IEA said that the global oil glut was shrinking thanks to strong European and U.S.
demand, as well as production declines in OPEC and non-OPEC countries. OPEC this week forecast
higher demand for its oil in 2018 and pointed to signs of a tighter global market, indicating its
productioncutting deal with non-member countries is helping to tackle a supply glut. That was followed
by the IEA saying the global oil glut was shrinking thanks to strong European and U.S. demand, as well
as production declines in OPEC and non-OPEC countries. BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley told Reuters
in an interview that oil prices were likely to stay between $50 and $60 as major producers kept output
restricted.
LME Copper prices plunged 2.8 percent last week to close at $6507/t as global risk aversion with regards
to North Korea restricted risk appetite. Also, net longs in speculative positions were cut amidst falling
bets on higher prices. LME data showed funds’ net long copper position at 71,827 lots, or more than 1.8
million tonnes, is down from a peak of 78,527 lots late in August but still near its highest since last
December. Further, Chinese economy showed signs of cooling. China's National Bureau of Statistics data
showed Industrial production grew 6% yearon-year in August, compared to a 6.4% increase in July. Fixed
asset investment, or spending on infrastructure and property, rose 7.8% year-on-year in the first eight
months of the year, moderating from an 8.3% increase over the January-July period. Retail sales
expanded 10.1% from a year ago, slowing down from 10.4% in July. Further, inventories at the LME
warehouses continued its rising spree and jumped by a whopping 46 percent in the last five sessions,
pulling the cancelled warrants down from around 50 percent to below 30 percent

6. MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
✍ CRUDEOIL
After penultimate weeks minor reversal, crude oil prices extended its gains in the previous week and ended
at 3238 gaining 4.40%. On the weekly chart, the prices have breached the bullish inverted head and
shoulder pattern and have closed above it. However, another resistance of the slanting trend line is at 3300
mark. If prices manage to even surpass the above-mentioned trend line of 3300 then the over trend turns
positive and propel the prices till 3500 and higher. While on the lower side supports are seen at 3145 then
3070. The momentum indicator RSI has been inching higher from 46 to 53 followed with positive cross
over in weekly MACD is indicating bullish strength. For the week, we expect crude prices to extend till
3310 then 3460 levels and therefore recommend buying around 3140 levels.

7. GOLD✍
After five weeks of successive gaining streak, gold prices opened slightly lower at 30200 and from there it
traded on lower note and ended at 29856. Prices have exactly tumbled till the previous swing high of 29785
and ended just above that. On the other hand, it is trading in a rising trend channel and according to that the
support is also at 29750. Thus, for this week 29750 holds as key support and as long as prices hold above
that the positive trend remains intact whereas break down below that will extend the correction till 29300
and lower. The momentum indicator RSI is still in trading zone at 59 and MACD also remind on positive
note signifying bullish strength. For the week, 29750 holds as key support and we expect gold prices to
witness strong supports around these levels as major momentum indicators are still on the positive note.
Thus, we recommend buying around 29750 with stick stop loss below 29500 for targets of 30200 then
30700.

8. NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 18-OCT-2017 685 682 679 677 675.00 673 671 669 667
SYBEANIDR 13-OCT-2017 3350 3300 3250 3200 3103 3050 3000 2950 2900
RMSEED 13-OCT-2017 3950 3900 3850 3820 3796 3750 3700 3650 3600
JEERAUNJHA 13-OCT-2017 20150 20000 19900 19790 19670 19550 19410 19220 19050
GUARSEED10 13-OCT-2017 3884 3834 3784 3734 3684 3634 3584 3534 3484
TMC 13-OCT-2017 7980 7880 7780 7700 7636 7536 7426 7326 7226
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 18-OCT-2017 699.90 691 685 679 675.00 671 667 663 657
SYBEANIDR 18-OCT-2017 3550 3450 3350 3250 3103 3000 2900 2800 2700
RMSEED 13-OCT-2017 4150 4050 3950 3850 3796 3700 3600 3500 3400
JEERAUNJHA 13-OCT-2017 20900 20500 20150 19900 19670 19410 19050 18650 18200
GUARSEED10 18-OCT-2017 4084 3984 3884 3784 3684 3584 3484 3384 3284
TMC 13-OCT-2017 8380 8180 7980 7780 7636 7426 7226 7026 6826

9. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
During the current week, cardamom, crude palm oil, jeera and chana traded on a positive note while guar
complex, cotton and coriander traded lower.Cardamom futures is heading for its highest weekly gain in 5
months as new season arrivals have been limited affected by the dry weather in the cardamom growing
regions of Kerala.Among spices, NCDEX jeera is heading for second weekly due to fresh buying after
seeing good delivery allocations for the September contract. NCDEX October delivery contract increase
about 2% or Rs. 355 per quintal to close at Rs. 19,685.
Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating diminishing stocks in the physical as well as
exchange warehouses. The arrivals have been lower during the first 10 days of September at 1,980 tonnes
compared to 3,271 tonnes in August for sam..Among spices, NCDEX jeera is heading for second weekly
due to fresh buying after seeing good delivery allocations for the September contract. NCDEX October
delivery contract increase about 2% or Rs. 355 per quintal to close at Rs. 19,685.
Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating diminishing stocks in the physical as well as
exchange warehouses. The arrivals have been lower during the first 10 days of September at 1,980 tonnes
compared to 3,271 tonnes in August for sam
The most active October delivery contract of guar complex on National Commodities and Derivative
Exchange (NCDEX), plunged to six weeks low on reports of improved weather conditions in guar
producing districts of Rajasthan and Gujarat. During the current week, October guar seed on NCDEX
plunge Rs. 208 or 5.37%, to trade at Rs. 3,668 per quintal, while guar gum fall Rs. 725 or 8.2% to trade
near Rs. 8,110 per quintal. Moreover, market participants are expecting new season arrivals in less than a
months’ time and also are worry about the export prospects for the guar gum in coming months to the US
as Crude oil production likely to be affected due to recent Hurricanes.
MCX CPO closed higher last week tracking good demand in the physical market and also helped by
recent surge in international prices. The prices were also supported due to increase in tariff value for
Crude palm oil and higher import duty also supports prices. The base import price of refined, bleached
and deodorised palm oil has been increased by $49 a tn to $750 a tn and that of crude soyoil has been
raised by $16 a tn to $851 per tn. Recently government raised import duty on crude palm oil to 15% from
7.5%, and on refined palm oil to 25% from 15%. According to SEA release, during November-August
period, crude palm oil import increased to 50.82 lakh tonnes from 46.70 lakh tonnes during the same
period of the previous oil year. Malaysian palm oil fell further on Friday from a six-month high, as strong
export figures cushioned the dampening effects of a rise in export tax for October. The increase of crude
palm oil export tax for October from 5.5% to 6% weighed on the sentiment. Cargo surveyor Intertek
Testing Services said palm exports for Sept. 1-15 rose 22.2% compared to Aug. 1-15. Palm prices
expected to fall in coming months as overseas exports from south Asian countries slows during the
winter. Countries such as China and Europe normally reduce their intake of palm oil in winter months as

10. the tropical product solidifies in cold temperatures.
NCDEX Soybean Oct futures closed slightly higher last week on bargain buying by the market
participants as new season soybean has started to arrive in the physical market. As per Agmarknet data,
soybean arrivals during the first 15 days is pegged at 1.58 lakh tonnes compared to 1.24 lakh tonnes in
August same period. As per the agri ministry data, India's soybean acreage was at 10.6 million ha as on
last week, down 7.8% from a year ago. The fall in overall acreage has been led by a decline in area
under the crop in Madhya Pradesh--the largest producer--because of poor rains in the state so far this
monsoon season. CBOT November futures fell on Friday on profit-taking but still recorded a fourth
straight weekly advance, supported by firm physical market and export demand. The USDA announced
a private export sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for 17/18 delivery through their daily
reporting system. The NOPA Crush report today showed August crush at 142.424 million bushels,
1.59% lower than July but 8.04% larger than August 2016. That was well above most analysts estimates.
Moreover, US soybean acreage for 2018 estimated to decrease by 0.5% by Informa to 89.057 million
acres
Sugar Futures closed unchanged last week but the trend is looking positive on anticipation of good
festival demand and reports that country may see tight supplies despite a 20% rise in output expected in
2017-18 (Oct-Sep), as ending stocks are seen tumbling to multi-year lows. Moreover, imposing stock
limits on sugar mills government is likely to allow import of 300,000 tn of raw sugar at 25-30% import
duty. October raw sugar closed higher for the last week as Unica data on Tuesday showed mills turning a
lower proportion of cane into sugar, 46.95%,in the second half of August – down from a figure above
50% in the first half. Weather in India, the world's secondbiggest sugar producer, is positive for
production as good recent rains in central areas will further ease dryness in support of cane growth
NCDEX Jeera for Oct delivery recorded second weekly due to fresh buying after seeing good delivery
allocations for the September contract. Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating a
diminishing stocks in the physical as well as exchange warehouses. Jeera exports have been lower than
anticipated during the first quarter of new financial year 2017/18. The arrivals have been lower during the
first 15 days of September at 3,625 tonnes compared to 3,923 tonnes in August for same period. India's
jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn. However, as per government data, Jeera exports
during first quarter in FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jun) is 41,707 tonnes, down 10.8% compared to last year exports
volume for the same period. Turmeric futures for October delivery closed lower for the week due to
balanced demand and supplies coupled with improved rains in Turmeric growing areas during week
ending 6th September. As per the data release by government, the exports during the first quarter of FY
2017/18 is down 10% to 33,323 tonnes, compared to last year exports volume for the same period. The
production estimate of turmeric for 2016/17 is pegged at 11.32 lakh tonnes by government in 3rd advance
estimate higher from 9.43 lakh tonnes in 2015/16. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, as on 13th
Sep, down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares.
MCX Cotton futures recorded their first weekly loss after three consecutive weekly gains tracking weak

11. international prices and higher acreage in the country Moreover, arrival of new season cotton also
pressurizes prices. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, The area under cotton across the country
was at 121.5 lakh ha as on last week, up nearly 19% on year. ICE cotton futures settled lower on Friday to
post a weekly decline of over 7 percent, the December 2017 contract's biggest weekly fall, after a U.S.
government report this week raised its projections for a big crop. USDA Export Sales report indicated a
MY low in weekly 17/18 sales of all upland cotton. There were 65,216 RB of old crop upland cotton sold
during the week of Sep 9, with 26,400 RB of new crop sales reported to Pakistan. Export shipments also
came in at a MY low at 108,523 RB, 13.11% behind last year. CFTC data shows spec traders with a net
long position of 70,284 contracts in cotton futures and options contracts as of Tuesday. That is an increase
of 14,104 contracts from the previous week and just in time to be hammered by the post-report sell off.
Mustard Oct futures closed lower last week on profit booking by the market participants due to steady
physical demand and good carryover stocks from last season. There is an anticipation of good demand
from the oil millers in coming weeks on good crushing demand because of improved mustard meal
exports in first 5 month of FY 2017/18. Country exported 216,258 tonnes mustard meal during this period
which is 122% higher on year. India's mustard meal exports for the month of July also rose 56.4% on year
to 50,649 tonnes as per SEA data. As per SEA recent data, mustard oil imports for period Nov-July down
23% to 1.94 lt in current oil year compared to 2.55 lt in the previous year. As per data compiled by
Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills across the country crushed 450,000 tn of mustard
seed in August, down over 18% from the previous month.
Besides, slowdown in exports of castor derivatives mainly Indian castor meal resulted downtrend in
castor seed futures However, castor seed physical market witnessed a uptrend during the yesterday’s trade
on improvement of crushing demand Commodity prices went up by avg. Rs.10-20 to Rs.4420-4565 per
quintal at Deesa Lakhni on Thursday’s trade on increased demand from crushing units amid increased
supplies of 6000-6500 quintals At Siddhpur market, castor seed price traded in the range of Rs.4400-
4625 per quintal, up by avg. Rs.25-50 amid increased supplies of 2700-2750 quintals Similar trend was
reported at Tharad market, castor seed prices traded in the range of Rs.4555-4550/quintal, up by avg.
Rs15 amid increased supplies of 2500-2550 quintals, which is up 750 quintals As on 13th Sept, total
48,438 tons castor seeds are available at NCDEX approved warehouses, which is increased by 1581 tons
compared to prior day whereas 3400 tons was in process Guar area in Rajasthan is forecast at 31.7 lakh
hectares, down 10 % compared to last year area of 35.3 lakh hectares. While in Gujarat, the guar acreage
forecasted down by 10% as on 11th Sep to 1.98 lakh hectares as compared to last year acreage. According
to market sources, acreage in Haryana is lower as farmers have shifted to cotton due to better
remuneration. Moreover, the exports of guar gum for the first quarter of 2017/18 is higher by 69.7% at
1.78 lakh tonnes compared to 1.05 lakh tonnes last year.

12. NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
In the last week, Soy bean prices opened at 3080 and rose till the high of 3150, but it failed to hold and finally
ended at 3104. Prices are moving trading within the rising trend channel and supports of the same are seen at
3050 mark. Prices are trading near the lower band supports of the channel and as long as it holds above 3050
the upside potential remains intact. For the week, the resistances are seen at 3180 then 3280 levels. The
momentum indicator RSI has slipped slightly lower from 64 to 55 and while the MACD continued to
remained firm. For the week, we expect soybean price are likely to trade higher and recommend buying
around 3080 levels for targets of 3180 then 3250.
After last weeks of consolidating, turmeric prices remained on a subdued note and ended with minor loses in
the last week at 7630. Turmeric prices have failed to surpass the immediate high of 7920 and have been
consolidating in a narrow range. On the other hand, it is trading below the trend line making double top
formation. For the week, the immediate support is at 7440, break below that will provide sharply correction till
7050 then 6850 levels. The momentum indicator RSI and MACD are also moving on subdued note. Going
forward, if turmeric prices breached below 7440 then a correction can be seen till 7050 levels thus we
recommend selling on break of 7440 for the targets of 7200 then 7050.

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