Last week, spot gold prices traded 1.2 percent higher while MCX gold prices surged by 2 percent. Weakness in the dollar index on account of the possible delays in the long awaited US Tax reforms, fall in global equities were factors responsible for the rise in the yellow metal.

2. ` MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 30- NOV-2017 141.50 140.00 139.00 138.50 136.50 135.10 134.10 132.50 131.40
COPPER 30- NOV-2017 458.70 454.20 449.50 446.90 445.00 442.40 440.40 435.70 431.10
CRUDE OIL 17-NOV-2017 3900.0
0
3841 3782 3747 3723 3688 3664 3605 3546
GOLD 05-DEC--2017 30111 29999 29881 29700 29551 29430 29320 29210 29100
LEAD 30- NOV-2017 171.00 169.90 168.70 167.10 165.40 164.30 163.10 162.00 160.50
NATURAL GAS 27-NOV-2017 217.50 214.70 211.90 210.60 209.10 207.80 206.30 203.50 200.70
NICKEL 30- NOV-2017 845.90 835.60 825.30 815.30 805.30 795.10 785.10 775 765.00
SILVER 05-DEC-17 40700 40400 40100 39900 39577 39177 38700 38400 38100
ZINC 30- NOV-2017 218.50 216.10 214.00 212.00 210.90 208.00 206.00 204.00 202.00
Tuesday 14 November2017

3. MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 30- NOV-2017 142.70 140.60 138.60 138.00 136.50 135.90 134.50 132.50 130.50
COPPER 30- NOV-2017 463.20 459.50 454.90 449.50 445.00 441.00 437.00 431.50 425.50
CRUDE OIL 17-NOV-2017 3920 3880 3820 3785 3723 3670 3610 3550 3490
GOLD 05-DEC--2017 30241 30011 29781 29636 29551 29406 29321 29091 28861
LEAD 30- NOV-2017 174.40 171.40 168.40 166.45 165.40 163.45 162.40 159.40 156.40
NATURAL GAS 27-NOV-2017 220.00 216.00 214.10 211.00 209.10 207.70 205.50 203.10 198.50
NICKEL 30- NOV-2017 956.00 905.70 855.50 822.50 805.30 772.30 755.10 705 654.60
SILVER 05-DEC-17 42505 41529 40553 40030 39577 39054 38601 37625 36649
ZINC 30- NOV-2017 232.60 225.0 218.10 215.30 210.90 208.00 203.70 196.40 189.10

4. FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 28-NOV-17 65.65 65.55 65.45 65.35 65.25 65.14 65.03 64.90 64.85
EURINR 28-NOV-17 76.99 76.83 76.69 76.55 76.40 76.25 76.10 75.97 75.80
GBPINR 28-NOV-17 86.55 86.37 86.19 86.00 85.85 85.69 85.50 85.31 85.15
JPYINR 28-NOV-17 58.00 57.90 57.80 57.69 57.60 57.50 57.40 57.29 57.18
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 28-NOV-17 66.30 66.00 65.79 65.51 65.20 65.00 64.77 64.50 64.20
EURINR 28-NOV-17 77.51 77.21 76.91 76.61 76.31 76.00 75.69 75.38 75.08
GBPINR 28-NOV-17 86.90 86.60 86.30 86.00 85.77 85.50 85.20 84.90 84.50
JPYINR 28-NOV-17 59.28 58.90 58.35 58.00 57.51 57.11 56.80 56.50 56.20

5. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ BULLION
Last week, spot gold prices traded 1.2 percent higher while MCX gold prices surged by 2 percent.
Weakness in the dollar index on account of the possible delays in the long awaited US Tax reforms, fall in
global equities were factors responsible for the rise in the yellow metal.
Gold prices were stuck in a small range last week with some gains coming in as uncertainty over US tax
reforms kept the dollar subdued. The US Senate and House version of the tax bill is different and
discussions will pan out over the next few weeks. The Senate bill proposes a delay in the implementation
of a corporate-tax cut until 2019. If tax reforms fail to move forward convincingly, precious metals could
find a solid floor around current levels. Gold prices however fell on Friday as the US bond yield curve
steepened slightly after touching its flattest level in a decade earlier. A December rate hike by the Fed is
largely factored in and appointment of Powell as the new Fed Chair is unlikely to change the path of US
monetary policy going ahead. The November Fed meeting was a non-event and the Fed continued to
emphasise the message from its last meeting while maintaining that growth remains solid. A December
rate hike is a done deal and therefore only the outlook for rates in 2018 will provide triggers to the market.
As per the last forecast by the Fed, most members expect 3 rate hikes next year. The new dot plot is
slightly more dovish in the long term with members expecting rates to settle around 2.75%, down from
3% in the previous forecasts. This suggests that rate hikes will be very gradual and may help gold prices
find support. Economic data in recent weeks has also showed strong growth momentum in the US
economy. The Q3 GDP data showed that the economy expanded by 3.0% and consumer spending jumped
by 2.4%. The ISM manufacturing index hit 60.1 in October, a 13 year high while the nonmanufacturing
PMI hit 58.7, slightly lower than the 13-year peak hit in September. The payrolls data showed that hiring
bounced back in October after falling in September due to the twin Hurricanes. The US economy added
261k jobs in October and previous readings were revised higher by a combined 90k. Wage growth was
disappointing at 2.4% y/y but the unemployment rate fell to a 17-year low of 4.1%. Lack of Inflation
however remains a challenge for the Fed as the latest inflation reading missed expectations once again.
The core CPI grew just 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y in September. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased by 1.3% in
Q3 after 0.9% increase in Q2. The core PCE has been stuck around 1.3% for most part of this year and
suggests that inflationary pressures still remain low.

6. In this context, the October inflation data due this week will be very important as it is the only reading left
before the December Fed meeting. Disappointing data could lower possibilities of more rate hikes in 2018
and thereby end up providing support to precious metals. A better reading on the other hand could lead to
further correction in prices.
Gold prices fell sharply on Friday as a large sell order with an unclear catalyst jolted the market ahead of
the weekend.Gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.96% at $1,274.20 on the Comex division
of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since November 7.Prices of the precious metal
rose to a three-week high on Thursday amid increased geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle
East.The selloff in gold coincided with a move lower in the dollar, which was hit by growing doubts over
whether Republicans will be able to push through their tax overhaul this year.The U.S. dollar index,
which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was
down 0.13% to 94.30 in late trade. For the week, the index was down 0.61%, snapping three straight
weeks of gains.A stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency and
becomes less affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar appreciates.Senate Republicans unveiled a tax
plan on Thursday that differed from the one crafted by House Republicans, highlighting the challenges to
reconciling the differences between the two plans with just a short time before the year-end deadline they
have set to pass it.Hopes of tax reform have helped boost the dollar since mid-September. Some traders
believe tax reforms could bolster growth, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates,
known as the "Trumpflation" trade.Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was down 0.57% at
$16.87 a troy ounce late Friday, while platinum settled at $913.15, down 1.0% for the day.Among base
metals, copper was down 0.39% at $3.074 in late trade as lackluster Chinese demand data and increasing
copper stockpiles stored in metal warehouses weighed.
In the week ahead, inflation readings will matter most for global financial markets, with the U.S., UK,
euro zone and Canada all set to release CPI data.Investors will also be focusing on the Central Bank
Communications Conference hosted by the ECB, with a panel discussion including the heads of the
European, U.S., British and Japanese central banks in the spotlight.

7. ✍ BASE METAL
Base metals traded mixed last week as electric car boom fizzled out earlier than expected since the rally
was deemed as unreasonable given demand from the sector is only going to be supportive in the long
term, thereby leading to a correction across the complex.Copper prices have been trading range bound
with much of the action in minor metals and nickel. There are no real fundamental triggers for copper at
the moment and dollar index movement and funds flow is what is driving the market at the moment.The
Indonesian unit of Freeport-McMoRan Inc has temporarily shut the main supply route to its Papua mine
after a shooting incident, amid escalating tensions between security forces and an armed rebel group in the
area. China’s producer prices were surprisingly strong in October, while consumer inflation picked up
pace, suggesting the economy remains robust despite expected curbs on factory output as the government
pursues a war on smog. Chinese data this month is expected to show the economy cooled further in
October as policy makers harden efforts to reduce financial risks and foster long term sustainable
growth.Lead was the only metal on track for a weekly gain, of near 3%, as prices hit their highest since
October. LME stocks have fallen to their lowest in almost two years at less than 150,000 tons. Global
demand for refined lead will exceed supply by 125,000 tons this year, while a deficit of 45,000 tons is
expected in 2018, as per the latest ILZSG.
China will raise foreign ownership limits in financial firms in a step granting access to a tantalizing
multitrillion dollar financial services market, as the country seeks to position itself as a major global
finance hub. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long position in COMEX copper
contracts in the week to Oct. 31, U.S. CFTC data showed. Noncommercial net longs turned lower from
what had been the strongest since February. Nickel prices corrected last week, slipping further from the
more than two-year high it hit last week on speculation that an expected electric vehicle boom would
drive up demand. Nickel prices surged almost 10% during the annual LME Week industry gathering on
expectations that nickel demand for use in lithium ion batteries would increase as electric car buying
ramped up. Fundamentals for nickel are sound, though stocks are relatively high. The market expects
annual nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector to grow to 200,000 tons by 2020, but had been
ignoring downside risks from policy developments in Indonesia, which recently lifted curbs on ore
exports, and the Philippines,

8. where the end of a ban on open-pit mining has been mooted. Aluminum was under pressure adding some
gains before the end of the week, but was still on track for its worst week since May 2016 as speculative
investment flows receded on caution over the scale of expected Chinese capacity cuts. The world’s
biggest producer of aluminium is expected to cut millions of tonnes of aluminium capacity during the
winter to combat air pollution, helping to push prices to five-year highs last month. Stocks in LME-
approved warehouses fell to their lowest since September 2008, down to 1.2 million tonnes, but stocks in
Shanghai inched higher this week to a record 666,581 tonnes.
The Indonesian unit of Freeport-McMoRan Inc has reopened the main supply route to its huge copper mine
in Papua, the company said on Monday, after the road was closed on Sunday following a shooting
incident in the area. No one was reported injured when shots were fired at an escort vehicle traveling from
the lowlands, but Freeport canceled all convoys along the road on Sunday afternoon while the security
situation was assessed.
✍ ENERGY
WTI and MCX oil prices traded higher by 2.7 and 4.4 percent last week on account of commitment by the
OPEC nations to cut oil output. Brent crude hit $64.65, its highest since mid-2015, as political tensions in
the Middle East escalated after a sweeping anti-corruption purge in top crude exporter Saudi Arabia,
which in turn has confronted Iran over the conflict in Yemen
Oil prices have jumped almost 23% from their lows in June with both WTI and Brent trading near two-
year highs as fundamentals continue to improve. The global oil market has seen a small deficit over the
last three months as the growth in global supply has slowed and as OPEC compliance to cuts has
improved. OPEC oil output fell by 80,000 bpd to 32.78 mbpd in October and overall compliance touched
92%. Saudi continues to be the biggest contributor to the supply cuts but the drop in Iraq’s output by
120,000 bpd helped improve the overall compliance. Nigerian output slipped by 70,000 bpd as some of its
exports were under force majeure while Libya pumped an extra 70,000 bpd due to more stable output
from the Sharara oilfield. Russia has also reduced its oil output by around 317,000 bpd from 11.24 million
bpd in Oct 2016. On the whole, we believe overall OPEC’s compliance would remain high going forward
and help continue the rebalancing process. Importantly, both Libya and Nigeria have reached the upper
end of their production range and hence incremental supply growth from these two will be limited. The
upcoming OPEC meeting on Nov. 30 will now be closely watched for further developments on supply.

9. There are likely to be preliminary discussions about extending the output cuts after they expire in March
2018. Another ninemonth extension could set the stage for another leg-up in oil prices. US output on the
other hand touched a record 9.62 mbpd last week and remains elevated in y/y comparisons. US oil rig
count fell for a third month in a row in October with rig count down by 13, the biggest decline since May
2016. Drillers however added nine oil rigs last week, the most since June, bringing the total count up to
738. This indicated that higher prices could incentivize drilling further and US shale will continue to cap
upside in oil prices. On the inventory side, US oil inventories fell by 10 million barrels last month and are
now 6.2% lower compared to the same period last year. US oil stocks have declined by 80 million barrels
since March this year. Estimates from the IEA suggest that global oil stocks likely decreased in Q3 for
only the second time since oil prices crashed in the middle of 2014. Crude inventory drawdown totalled
53 million barrels in Q3 but OECD stocks are still ~150 million barrels above the five-year average.
Gasoline and Distillate stocks in the US were also at a two-year low in October while product stocks at
the ARA hub in Europe were down 8.3% compared to September. From the demand perspective, Crude
oil demand has outstripped supply since the start of 2016 and this year has continued to show robust
demand. While supply grew 1.47% y/y on average in the first nine months, demand has grown by 2.75%.
Asia, Europe and the US have been the biggest contributors to demand this year as global economic
recovery has taken a strong foothold. Considering that inventories are edging lower, demand remains
strong and supply flat, we expect the medium term outlook for oil to remain positive. The oil forward
curve now is reflecting a tightening market as WTI has started moving into backwardation while Brent is
already in small backwardation. For natural gas, inventories ended the injection/refill season at 3784 Bcf,
which is 2% lower compared to five year average and 5% lower compared to last year. Expected growth
in natural gas exports and domestic natural gas consumption during winter will keep the bias positive for
gas in the coming weeks.
Crude prices were a bit lower to start the week on Monday, slipping from their strongest level in more
than two years amid indications that U.S. producers will ramp up output to take advantage of the recent
rally.
Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes said Friday that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by
nine to 738 last week. It was the biggest jump since June, sparking concern that U.S. shale producers will
ramp up output with prices holding near 28-month highs.

10. The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for
domestic oil production.Losses were limited amid optimism that oil producing countries will agree to
extend an output cut at their meeting at the end of this month.Under the original terms of the deal, OPEC
and 10 other non-OPEC countries led by Russia agreed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels a day
(bpd) for six months.
The agreement was extended in May of this year for a period of nine more months until March 2018 in a
bid to reduce global oil inventories and support oil prices.Discussions are continuing in the run-up to the
Nov. 30 meeting, which oil ministers from OPEC and the participating non-OPEC countries will attend.
The cartel will release its monthly market report at approximately 6:00AM ET (1100GMT). The data will
give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market.
Meanwhile, market players kept a watchful eye on developments in the Middle East as well as escalating
tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.Saudi Arabia is among the world’s top producers of oil and
OPEC’s most influential member.Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S.,
dipped 13 cents, or around 0.2%, to trade at $63.39 a barrel by 3:25AM ET (0825GMT). It rallied to
$64.65 last Wednesday, a level not seen since June 2015.The global benchmark ended last week with an
increase of approximately 2.4%, the fifth weekly gain in a row.Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) crude futures shed 4 cents, or about 0.1%, to $56.69 a barrel. It reached its best level since July
2015 at $57.92 on Wednesday of last week.WTI prices rose a fifth-straight week last week, gaining
around 2%.
Oil's rally, which began in early October, has been largely driven by growing indications that the crude
market was finally starting to rebalance. Brent is over 40% above June's 2017 lows, while WTI is one-
third higher than its 2017 lows.Natural gas futures lost 4.6 cents, or almost 1.5%, to $3.165 per million
British thermal units.

11. MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
✍ GOLD
Last week, Gold prices opened higher with gap and prices rose strongly for most of the week till high of 29696.
Prices corrected slightly in the last session and closed around 29491.Prices have bounced after taking strong
support at 50% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from low of 27603 till high of 30474, which is placed around
29771 level.Previously prices have broken out from its short term declining trend line and rallied strongly.
Prices have corrected sharply in the previous month and resumed its bullish trend in the last week. Prices are
expected to rise further from these levels towards next resistances placed around 29981 and 30163 levels.
BUY GOLD DEC ABOVE 29703 TGT 29941 SL 29548

12. ✍ CRUDE OIL
Last week, Crude Oil prices opened higher and prices rose strongly for first half of the week till high of 3765.
Later prices consolidated in a range of 3667-3755 levels for the remaining week. Prices have been rallying
strongly since last three months after taking strong support around 50% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from
low of 1805 till high of 3780, which is placed around 2785 level. Prices have made an inverse head and
shoulder chart pattern and broken out from its neckline of the pattern placed around 3682 level in the last week.
Prices are expected to rise further from these levels towards immediate resistance placed around 3811 level. On
the lower side immediate supports are placed around 3570.
BUY NATURAL GAS ABOVE 204 TGT 212 SL 199.90

13. NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-DEC-2017 731.9 727.90 723.90 720.50 717.00 714.00 711.00 708.30 704.00
SYBEANIDR 20-DEC-2017 2760 2790 2828 2852 2890 2860 2820 2775 2740
RMSEED 20-DEC-2017 4122 4088 4063 4022 4000 3956 3931 3890 3859
JEERAUNJHA 20-DEC-2017 19320 19200 19090 18985 18875 18770 18660 18555 18435
GUARSEED10 20-DEC-2017 3830 3786 3747 3683 3644 3581 3542 3478 3440
TMC 20-DEC-2017 7502 7442 7306 7184 7050 6926 6790 6668 6600
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-DEC-2017 745.0
0
735.00 729.00 721.00 716.50 711.00 705.00 695.00 689.00
SYBEANIDR 20-DEC-2017 3090 3025 2980 2925 2875 2825 2775 2725 2675
RMSEED 20-DEC-2017 4220 4170 4120 4070 4020 3980 3930 3870 3820
JEERAUNJHA 20-DEC-2017 2015
0
19800 19500 19200 18900 18500 18100 17660 17320
GUARSEED10 20-DEC-2017 3850 3800 3750 3700 3660 3610 3560 3510 3460
TMC 20-DEC-2017 7552 7456 7354 7252 7150 7050 6900 6786 6666

14. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SPICE COMPLEX
NCDEX Jeera traded lower last weekon weak physical demand and good supplies. The arrivals have been
higher during October this year at 3,760 tonnes compared to 2,130 tonnes last year same period according
to Agmarknet data. However, in the second half of Oct the arrivals have been reduced significantly to 963
tons Vs 2,795 tons in the first half. As per government data, Jeera exports during first five month of FY
2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 63,085 tonnes, down 2.6% compared to last year exports volume for the same
period. India's jeera exports in Aug increase 46% on year to 13,879 tn. On the import front, country
imported about 1,044 tonnes of jeera during the month of August about 209 percent higher than last year
imports. Turmeric Dec futures closed lower last week on profit booking due to weak physical demand.
The prices have been pressurized on reports good supplies from the government auctions. The export of
turmeric is down by 17.4% to 49,186 tonnes for the first 5 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’
exports. The arrivals have been lower during October at 7,222 tonnes compared to 10,037 tonnes last year
same period according to Agmarknet data.
Turmeric futures traded down on lack of buying support while Dhaniya and Jeera futures extended
downside due to profit booking. Strong support for Turmeric NCDEX (Dec) seen at Rs.6900/qtl level.
Prices of Jeera are likely to resume its upswing tracking low availability of stock in physical market.
Higher prices and strong export demand may cause Jeera acreage to increase by about 8-10% in Gujarat
and the bordering districts of Rajasthan in 2017-18. Gujarat 2017-18 cumin sowing till Nov 6 seen at
23,300 hec vs 3,400 hec a year ago. Upside in Dhaniya futures can be use to initiate fresh shorts as
fundamentals of the commodity are bearish due to higher carryover stocks. Trading range for Dhaniya
NCDEX (Dec) seen between Rs.4800-5400/qtl levels. Improved export demand and short covering at
lower levels likely to support reversal in Cardamom prices at lower levels. International Pepper
Community (IPC) estimates that India would import 18,000 tonnes of Pepper in 2018 as against 16,000
tonnes in 2017.Sharp selling was seen in jeera due to possibility of bumper sowing in the current year. The
sources stated that favourable sowing conditions in Rajasthan and Gujarat will witness strong jeera
production in the current year.

15. The daily arrivals have been reported at 3000 bags against total demand of 1000 bags. The prices have
been trading in the range of Rs 18000-18500 per quintal. The sources added that total carryover stocks are
reported in the range of 7-8 lakh bags against 18-19 lakh bags of the last year in the same period.
✍ OILSEED COMPLEX
NCDEX Soybean futures closed lower last week as soybean arrivals have peaked, which put pressure on
physical as well as futures prices. As per Agmarknet data, the arrivals in 1-10 Nov increased to 5.34 lt
compared to 4.6 lt last year for same time. Arrivals since October in 2017 is about 17 lt as compared to 15
lt last year same period. Good demand for soy meal exports kept the prices supported prices last week.
Total exports of soy oilmeal in the first seven months of the fiscal started April is almost 5 times higher to
5.37 lakh tons compared to 1.07 lakh tons last year. U.S. soybean turned modestly higher on technical
buying but rallies capped by fundamental pressure as USDA left its estimate of the U.S. 2017 soybean
yield unchanged at 49.5 bushels per acre. Production for 2017 came in 6 mbu lower at 4.425 bbu caused
the 17/18 US ending stocks to be reduced 5 mbu to 425 mbu. However, world ending stocks for 17/18
were raised 1.85 mt to 97.9 mt, as Brazil’s expected production was upped 1 mt to 108 mt. China has
agreed to purchase another 12 MMT of 17/18 US soybeans during President Trump’s visit this week.
Mustard Dec futures closed lower on Friday on profit booking after it hit highest price since March 2017.
However, due to winter demand the prices closed little higher for the week. As per rabi sowing report
from the government, the area under mustard as on10 Nov 2017 is little lower than last year’s acreage at
37 lakh ha. The area planted in Madhya Pradesh crossed 5 lakh ha compared to 60,000 ha last year while
in Rajasthan the acreage reached only 10 lakh ha compared to 16.3 lakh ha last year. Support price for
mustard in 2017-18 rose by 8.1% on year to 4,000 rupees per 100 kg. According to data compiled by
Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, country is still holding about 20 lakh tonnes of mustard from
the last year as it is estimated that millers have crushed about 48 lt last year against the marketable surplus
of 67.8 lt.Some recovery was seen in mustard seed market on the account of slow sowing progress of fresh
sowing along with limited supplies in local mandies. The market sources stated that most of the parts of
Rajasthan have witnessed less sowing of mustard seed crop so far in the current year as most of them are
showing their interest towards chana crop.

16. The latest data of the state government pointed that mustard seed sowing has been declined by 50 percent
from the last year in same period. Moreover, daily arrivals have been reported around 0.60-0.70 lakh bags,
down 25 percent from average arrivals of last week. The NCDEX December futures swelled by Rs 36 per
quintal to close at Rs 3996 per quintal today.
Refined Soy Oil Dec future surged higher last week on anticipation of import duty hike however, the
prices have stabilize in last two trading sessions as import duty was not hiked. The current prices are
trading at 9 months high due to good intake by the bulk traders on hope that the import hike may happen
near future. Recently, Government hike the tariff value for soy oil by $15 per ton to $839 for the first half
of Nov also support prices. Moreover, firm international prices, higher import duty and good demand from
the stockists is supporting edible oil prices in India despite higher stocks and good oilseed production.
MCX CPO closed higher last week as the prices were supported by expectation of hike in import duty for
edible oil. But, the government did not take any decision on increasing import duty on edible oil for now
which slow down the price surge. For the second first half of Nov, the base import price for crude palm oil
and refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil were raised by $2 and $3 per tn, respectively. According to
SEA release, during Nov-Sep period, crude palm oil import is 57.34 lakh tonnes, up 9.5% from 52.34 lt
during the same period of the previous oil year.
As per the latest data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture , the total sowing acreage of rabi oilseeds
plunged by 2.83 % so far in the current year to reach 40.93 lakh hectares as on 10th November 2017
against 42.13 lakh hectares of the last year. The decline was reported in mustard seed as total acreage
slumped by 3.50 percent to reach 37.04 lakh hectares against 38.14 lakh hectares of the last year. While
other oilseeds such as Saflower oil seed reported at 0.33 lakh hectares against 0.25 lakh hectares of the last
year.
✍ OTHER COMPLEX
Chana Dec futures fall about 5% last week pressured by good start to rabi sowing and higher stock levels
in the country. However, support in chana prices is seen due to hike in 50 percent import tax on all pea by
the government. As per government sowing data chana is planted in 47.2 lakh ha as on 10 Nov, up by 43%
compared to 33 lakh ha last year. Gram (chana) exceeds normal seasonal acreage in Madhya Pradesh as on
10th Nov 2017.

17. Madhya Pradesh is leading the gram acreage while country has reached more than 50% of average
seasonal area. Moreover to encourage farmers to plant more chana, Government increase MSP by 10% to
Rs. 4,400 per quintal. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production
target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt
MCX Cotton Nov futures closed lower last week prices as arrivals have increase in the country. Cotton
exports from country are expected to affect due to hike in procurement prices in largest producing state of
Gujarat. In November, cotton traded sideways in a range on higher than expected cotton production in the
country. CCI has stared its procurement from Telangana and some parts of Gujarat and estimated to have
procured about 62,000 bales at MSP this season. The arrivals in the current season during Oct are about
20.27 lakh bales compared to 18.72 lakh bales last year as per ICC. ICE cotton futures rose on Friday with
the biggest one-day percentage gain in a week, supported by buying amid December options expiry and
mill fixations. The USDA reduced the 17/18 world ending stocks number for cotton by 1.5 million bales to
90.88 million bales. All upland cotton 17/18 export sales for the week of November 2 came in at 205,297
RB, which was slightly lower than last week but 21.61% larger than a year ago.
Brazil again lowered its forecast for its wheat harvest, citing damage from weather setbacks ranging from
drought to heavy rains - but failed to increase its import forecast, citing strong mill inventories.
Conab, the official Brazilian crop bureau, reduced by further 313,000 tonnes, to a five-year low of 4.57m
tonnes, its forecast for its ongoing 2017-18 wheat harvest.
The downgrade took to 32% the drop expected in production from last year's record high, and indeed left
the crop less than 200,000 tonnes from setting a decade low.And it reflected growing pessimism over
yields, now seen averaging 2.49 tonnes per hectare, particularly in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, the top
two growing states.As per the latest data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture. the total area sown during
the current rabi season has been increased to 163.25 lakh hectares (ha), up 19 per cent from the previous
year of 137.72 lakh ha. This was mainly due to rise in pulses and coarse cereals acreage.

18. Strong recovery was seen in wheat market in today's trading as government has doubled the import duty
on wheat and peas. On Wednesday, the government has increased the import duty on wheat to 20 per cent
from 10 percent to restrict cheap shipments and give positive price signal to farmers in the ongoing Rabi
season. The government has taken this decision to encourage rabi sowing for the current year. However,
this news has ignited smart rally in futures market as prices have witnessed short covering today. The
NCDEX December Wheat futures increased by 1.37 percent to close at Rs 1772 per quintal.
The area under pulses stood at 63.79 lakh ha, up 40 per cent from the previous rabi season's 45.48 lakh ha.
Among pulses, chana acreage , went up to 47.2 lakh ha from 32.93 lakh ha last year. The area under wheat
was reported at 27.39 lakh ha compared to 25.72 lakh ha last year. Coarse cereals witnessed a whopping
22 per cent increase in area under cultivation with the total area covered so far going up to 23.41 lakh ha
against 19.17 lakh ha during the previous rabi season.

19. NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
✍ GUARSEED
Guar seed prices have been correcting sharply since last two months after making a high of 4344 in the
August month. Previously prices have rallied strongly for multiple times after taking strong support at its
medium term rising trend line. Currently prices have taken strong support around 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement of its rally from low of 3235 till high of 4344, which is placed around 3743 level. Prices have
made multiple trend reversal candlestick patterns in which one is hammer and a long legged doji signifying
a potential reversal from these levels.Prices are expected to recover towards immediate resistance placed
around 3887 level.
BUY GUARSEED DEC ABOVE 3812 TGT 3933 SL 3709

20. ✍ JEERA
Jeera prices opened week in the last week and prices lower in the first session of the week till low of 19000.
Prices weaker further till low of 18765. and consolidated for the remaining week in the range of 19300-18750
levels. Prices have also retested its previous short term declining trend line breakout level19300 and are
expected to rise further from these levels towards next strong resistances placed around 19800-20400 levels.
On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 18700 decline below this level may test the level of
18300-18000.
BUY JEERA DEC ABOVE 19600 TGT 20040 SL 19270

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