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MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2017 144.00 143.00 142.00 141.00 140.00 139.00 138.00 137.00 136.00
COPPER 30- NOV-2017 456.50 452.50 448.50 442.50 439.80 435.50 431.50 427.50 422.50
CRUDE OIL 18-OCT-2017 3400 3350 3320 3299 3262 3212 3175 3120 3080
GOLD 05-DEC--2017 29785 29735 29685 29635 29494 29444 29394 29332 29250
LEAD 31-OCT-2017 170.30 169.30 168.30 167.30 166.30 165.30 164.30 163.30 162.30
NATURAL GAS 26-OCT-2017 198.00 196.00 194.00 192.00 189.30 188.00 186.00 184.00 182.00
NICKEL 31-OCT-2017 721 714 707 699.90 693.40 687.00 680.00 673.00 665.00
SILVER 05-DEC--2017 40150 40000 39850 39700 39378 39301 39200 39000 38800
ZINC 31-OCT-2017 218.80 217.80 216.80 215.80 214.80 213.80 212.80 211.80 210.80
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2017 148.00 146.00 144.00 142.00 140.00 138.00 136.00 134.00 132.00
COPPER 30- NOV-2017 466.50 463.50 456.50 448.50 439.80 431.50 422.50 417.50 412.50
CRUDE OIL 18-OCT-2017 3550 3470 3400 3320 3262 3175 3080 3010 2950
GOLD 05-DEC--2017 29985 29885 29785 29685 29494 29394 29250 29150 29050
LEAD 31-OCT-2017 174.30 172.30 170.30 168.30 166.30 164.30 162.30 160.30 158.30
NATURAL GAS 26-OCT-2017 206.00 202.00 198.00 194.00 189.30 186.00 182.00 178.00 174.00
NICKEL 31-OCT-2017 765.00 745.00 721 707 693.40 680.00 665.00 645.00 625.00
SILVER 05-DEC--2017 40999 40500 40150 39850 39378 39200 38800 38200 37800
ZINC 31-OCT-2017 222.20 220.80 218.80 216.80 214.80 212.80 210.80 208.80 206.80
Monday 09 October 2017
FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 27-OCT-17 66.51 66.25 66.00 65.75 65.45 65.22 65.01 64.75 64.51
EURINR 27-OCT-17 77.50 77.30 77.10 76.99 76.83 76.73 76.53 76.33 76.13
GBPINR 27-OCT-17 86.78 86.48 86.08 85.99 85.78 85.50 85.20 84.90 84.70
JPYINR 27-OCT-17 58.70 58.61 58.51 58.40 58.25 58.19 58.11 58.01 57.91
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 27-OCT-17 67.51 67.01 66.51 66.00 65.45 65.01 64.51 64.01 63.51
EURINR 27-OCT-17 78.20 77.90 77.50 77.10 76.83 76.53 76.13 75.83 75.60
GBPINR 27-OCT-17 87.78 87.28 86.78 86.08 85.78 85.20 84.70 84.10 83.70
JPYINR 27-OCT-17 59.11 58.91 58.71 58.51 58.31 58.11 57.91 57.71 57.51
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ BULLION
Bullion counter may trade on positive path as weaker greenback and safe haven demand can give support
to the prices. Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee will give further direction to the prices. Gold
can move in range of 29300-29700 while silver can move in range of 39000-40000 in near term. Gold
prices rose early on Monday, pulling further away from a two-month low, as fresh concerns over North
Korea's nuclear ambitions stoked safehaven demand for the precious metal and weighed on the dollar.
The dollar held steady against the yen on Monday, having retreated from 12-week highs set last week,
due to a renewed focus on geopolitical risks amid concerns that North Korea may be preparing another
missile test. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un said his nuclear weapons were a "powerful deterrent" that
guaranteed its sovereignty, state media reported on Sunday, hours after US President Donald Trump said
"only one thing will work" in dealing with the isolated country. Hedge funds and money managers
reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts for the third straight week, in the
week to Oct. 3, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.Gold
bounced up from a two-month low on Friday, on concerns stoked by a Russian report that North Korea is
preparing to test a long-range missile and on support from the U.S. dollar's shift into negative territory.
Earlier, bullion fell to a two-month low at $1,260.16 an ounce on an upbeat reading of the U.S.
unemployment rate and wage growth last month that supported expectations for a further U.S. interest
rate hike in December. This pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher. Gold prices have fallen 0.5
percent this week and are facing their fourth straight week of decline, the metal's longest run of weekly
losses this year. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares,
have fallen 13.6 tonnes so far this week, their first weekly outflow in nine weeks and the largest since late
July. Demand for physical gold in India improved slightly this week because of a correction in local
prices, but restrictions on the industry and increased smuggling took the sheen off the bullion
market.SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings
stood at 856.08 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day. Holdings of the largest
silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10129.51
tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.Indian authorities withdrew on Friday an
amendment that made jewellers subject to anti-money laundering legislation and caused a drop in gold
sales. The Prevention of Money Laundering Act obliges banks and other financial institutions to report
all cash transactions above 50,000 rupees ($765) to the government, including customers' personal
identification numbers or tax codes.
✍ BASE METAL
Base metals complex may witness some profit booking at higher levels. China markets have opened
today after week long national day holidays. Copper may trade in range of 433-442. Aluminum can move
in the range of 138-142 in MCX. Nickel can move in range of 685-710. Lead can hover in the range of
163-169. Zinc may move in range of 213- 218. Meanwhile, metals found support as the dollar edged
back from more than two-month highs as immediate concerns about North Korea's long-range missile
capabilities receded. Business activity in China's services sector grew at its slowest pace in 21 months in
September as the pace of new business cooled, a private survey showed. The survey was in sharp contrast
to an official gauge of the non-manufacturing sector that showed the services sector expanded at the
fastest clip since 2014 in September, blurring the picture on how a key part of the economy is
performing. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper
futures and options for the fourth straight week, in the week to Oct. 3, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data showed on Friday. Copper registered its largest weekly gain since late August,
underpinned by expectations of strong demand from top consumer China, though a strengthening dollar
capped price rises. The metal used in power and construction has risen more than 20 percent this year and
was on track for a 2.9 percent weekly gain. The U.S. currency was set for a fourth consecutive week of
gains, helped by expectations of a U.S. interest rate rise in December. A stronger dollar makes industrial
metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand. Zinc prices have
risen more than 26 percent this year as a Chinese crackdown on polluting industry curbed output, with
inventories in LME warehouses dropping to their lowest since 2009. U.S. employment fell in September
because of the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but the unemployment rate and wage growth
suggested an improving labour market.Indonesian President Joko Widodo called for faster progress to
wrap up a deal with FreeportMcMoRan Inc on rights to the giant Grasberg copper mine, which the U.S.
firm owns, officials said on Friday. The chief executive of the world's biggest publicly traded copper
company which under a framework deal agreed in August to divest 51 percent of the mine held talks with
officials in Jakarta earlier in the day. The U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday it would defer
issuing its preliminary determination in an anti-dumping duty probe into imports of aluminum foil from
China. The department said in a statement the delay would allow it "to fully analyze information
pertaining to China's status as a non-market economy (NME) country.
✍ ENERGY
Crude oil may open on flat note as it can trade in range of 3200-3280. Crude oil prices gained in Asia on
Monday with investors focused on fairly busy week of data points on supply and demand. Crude oil
prices gained in Asia on Monday with investors focused on fairly busy week of data points on supply and
demand. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of
crude and refined products on Wednesday and Thursday to further weigh what the impact of recent storm
activity was on supply and demand. The market is also waiting on President Donald Trump’s decision on
Thursday on whether or not to certify Iran’s compliance with the international nuclear deal. The Persian
nation is an OPEC member and key Middle Eastern oil producer. Last week, oil prices plunged on
Friday, snapping a multi-week bull run amid renewed oversupply concerns, with investor attention
shifting to a potential disruption to crude production and refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico as
Tropical Storm Nate bore down on the region. Natural gas may move in range of 185-192. Oil futures fell
more than 2 percent on Friday, ending Brent crude's longest multi-week rally in 16 months as oversupply
concerns reappeared as producers have started hedging future drilling. Russia clarified remarks made by
President Vladimir Putin about the oil market earlier this week, saying he did not propose extending a
global oil output cut deal but said he recognised it was a possibility. The prospect of extended oil
production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by
Russia had supported prices in recent sessions. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on Thursday he was
"flexible" about prolonging the production-curbing pact until the end of 2018. However, concerns linger
about growing U.S. crude exports, due to a hefty WTI discount to Brent prices, which makes U.S. oil
more competitive. U.S. crude exports' rise to a record of nearly 2 million barrels per day last week and
the growth in U.S. production to 9.56 million bpd has fanned some concerns about oversupply. The
Baker Hughes' report on the U.S. oil drilling rigs, an early indicator of future output, showed the rig
count fall in for the fourth week out of the last five. OPEC and other oil producers may need to take
"some extraordinary measures" next year to rebalance the oil market, the OPEC secretary-general said on
Sunday. State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco is in talks with several Indian refiners and hopes to land a joint
venture deal by next year, the company's chief executive told Reuters on Sunday. Some oil ports,
producers and refiners in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama that shut facilities ahead of Hurricane Nate
were planning reopenings as the storm moved inland on Sunday, away from most energy infrastructure
on the U.S. Gulf Coast.Indian oil-to-telecoms conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd has agreed to sell a
shale oil and gas block in the United States for $126 million, a third of the price it paid seven years ago,
amid a downturn in global oil prices.
MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
GOLD✍
In the last week, Gold prices opened flat and prices corrected for most of the week till low of 29312. Prices
recovered strongly in the last session and closed flat on weekly basis. Prices have broken down from its
short term rising trend line support in the previous week and corrected sharply after that.Prices have made a
bearish shooting star candlestick pattern on the monthly chart, which is suggesting further correction
towards next strong support placed around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally from low of
27603 till high of 30474, which is placed around 28700 level. On the higher side immediate resistances are
placed around 29703 and 30208 levels.
CRUDE OIL✍
In the last week, Crude Oil prices opened lower with gap and prices corrected for most of the week till
low of 3223. Previously prices have rallied after taking strong support around 50% Fibonacci retracement
of its rally from low of 1805 till high of 3780, which is placed around 2792 level. Prices have made a
potential inverse head and shoulder chart pattern, which is a bullish pattern. Neckline of the pattern is
placed around 3680 level. Prices are expected to rise further from these levels towards immediate
resistance placed around its neckline near 3682 level. On the lower side immediate supports are placed
around 3232 and 3011 levels.
COPPER✍
Copper prices opened slightly lower with gap in the last week and prices consolidated for first half of the
week in the range of 426-432 levels. Later prices rose strongly for the remaining week till high of 442.20. 
Prices have resumed its bullish trend in the last three weeks after taking strong support around its previous
multiple highs placed near 415 level. Prices are expected to continue this rally towards immediate resistance
placed around its recent high of 451.35 level, which is also around 78.6% Fibonacci extension of its
previous rally from low of 291.50 till high of 414.80 level. On the lower side immediate supports are placed
around 432 and 419 levels.
NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-NOV 2017 667.00 665.00 663.00 661.00 659.00 657.00 655.00 653.00 651.00
SYBEANIDR 20-NOV 2017 3017 2995 2970 2945 2917 2890 2865 2840 2810
RMSEED 20-NOV 2017 3830 3800 3770 3740 3715 3690 3660 3630 3600
JEERAUNJHA 20-NOV 2017 19550 19450 19350 19150 19055 18900 18800 18700 18600
GUARSEED10 20-NOV 2017 3790 3750 3720 3695 3671 3650 3620 3590 3560
TMC 20-NOV 2017 7598 7548 7498 7448 7398 7348 7298 7248 7198
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-NOV 2017 673.00 670.00 667.00 663.00 659.00 655.00 651.00 648.00 645.00
SYBEANIDR 20-NOV 2017 3117 3070 3017 2970 2917 2865 2810 2765 2710
RMSEED 20-NOV 2017 3930 3870 3830 3770 3715 3660 3600 3540 3470
JEERAUNJHA 20-NOV 2017 19950 19750 19550 19350 19055 18800 18600 18400 18200
GUARSEED10 20-NOV 2017 3890 3820 3790 3720 3671 3620 3560 3530 3480
TMC 20-NOV 2017 7798 7698 7598 7498 7398 7298 7198 7098 6998
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SPICE COMPLEX
NCDEX Jeera for Nov delivery closed lower last week on subdued demand from the physical players due
to weak physical demand as exports are usually lower during the months of September, October and
November. As per government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jun) is
49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. Moreover, there are
assumptions that the area under jeera may increase by more than 30% in coming rabi season due to
higher prices. The arrivals have been lower during September at 6,529 tonnes compared to 7,103 tonnes
in August. India's jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn. Turmeric futures for Nov
delivery closed lower last week but still trend looks sideways to lower due to beneficial rains in the
southern peninsula. The export of turmeric is down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of
FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, as on 27th Sep,
down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares. The production
estimate of turmeric for 2016/17 is pegged at 11.32 lakh tonnes by government in 3rd advance estimate
higher from 9.43 lakh tonnes in 2015/16. Dhaniya futures failed to sustain at higher levels tracking weak
fundamentals and profit booking. Jeera and Turmeric futures traded with negative bias on lack of buying
interest from traders. Cardamom futures faced selling pressure due to profit booking. Prices of Turmeric
are likely to resume its upswing and Cross Rs. 8000/qtl levels in coming sessions at NCDEX (Nov)
futures on expectation of lower output due to unsupportive weather conditions in major growing areas.
Prices of Jeera are likely to get support at lower levels and test resistance of Rs.20050/qtl at NCDEX
(Nov) due to low availability of stock in physical market and quality concerns. Upside in Dhaniya futures
can be use to initiate fresh shorts as fundamentals of the commodity are bearish. India exported 3,06,990
tonnes of Spices worth Rs 4,589.14 crore during the first quarter of the 2017-18 financial year, up 35% as
compared to 2,27,938 tonnes in the corresponding period last year, the Spices Board of India said. Below
normal monsoon rainfall in major growing regions, lower carryover stocks and better export demand
likely to support Cardamom prices in near term.
✍ OILSEED COMPLEX
NCDEX Soybean Nov futures recorded second successive fall last week on expectation of increase in
arrivals from new season crop. Moreover, extend in the limits on stocks of oilseeds and edible oils with
traders and mills till September 30, 2018 also bearish for the oilseeds. As the prices of soybean move
below the MSP in key physical markets, central government has given approval for procurement of
100,000 tn soybean from farmers in Maharashtra and 150,000 tn of the oilseed from Rajasthan at
minimum support price. U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Friday, to a one-week high in the final
minutes of trade on technical buying and worries about dry weather hampering planting in Brazil.
Concerns about rains slowing down the U.S. harvest, which was already behind the typical pace, added
strength to soybeans. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed soybean futures and options spec
traders trimming their net long position by just 562 contracts to 27,758 contracts as of Tuesday. Analysts
are expecting next Thursday’s WASDE to show a national yield of 49.9 bps, even with the USDA’s
previous number. SAFRAS and Mercado increased their 2017/18 Brazilian soybean production estimate
1.5 mt to 114. mt. Mustard Nov futures see some fresh buying on Thursday by the market participants.
However, reports of higher stock levels in the country and good physical demand from the oil mills is
keeping the price steady. As per data compiled by Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills
across the country crushed 425,000 tn of mustard seed in September, down around 6% from previous
month.There are improved mustard meal exports in first 5 month of FY 2017/18. Country exported
216,258 tonnes mustard meal during this period which is 122% higher on year. Country's top mustard
producing state, Rajasthan, has set a target of 37.7 lakh tonnes production in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun), 4.3%
lower from the output a year ago.MCX CPO closed lower last week but traded mostly sideways due to
higher supplies in the domestic market. The prices have been supported at higher levels due to increase in
tariff value for the first half of October. The government increased the base import price of all palm oils,
with the steepest hike of $30 per tn for refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil. The base import prices
of refined, bleached and deodorised palmolein, and crude palmolein were raised by $28 per tn each. The
stock of CPO as on 1st Sept., 2017 at various ports is estimated at 3.4 lakh tonnes compared to 2.7 lakh
tonnes in previous month.
According to SEA release, during NovemberAugust period, crude palm oil import increased to 50.82 lt
from 46.70 lt during the same period of the previous oil year. Malaysian palm oil traded higher on Friday
ahead of the release of official data for September, charting a fourth straight day of gains and finishing
the week stronger after two consecutive weeks of decline. Traders are expecting September output rising
to 1.84 million tonnes, the strongest in nearly two years, while exports are forecast to gain 7.8 percent to
1.60 million tonnes. Malaysia's palm oil shipments during Sept were about 10 % up and expectations are
that production will top demand in the same month so that ending stocks may grow.
Refined Soy Oil Nov futures closed lower last week taking clues from the International Soyoil which
falls close to 0.8% last week. Soy oil the prices in physical market were supported by good retail demand
as festival season in the country is nearing. Moreover, weak rupees and increase in import tax also
supported prices. Government kept the base import price of crude soyoil was kept unchanged at
$851/tonnes for the first half of October. The government revises the base import prices every fortnight,
based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. Prices were last revised on Sep 15.
Soybean at NCDEX (Nov) traded down tracking sufficient availability of stock in spot market vs
demand. Higher arrivals are pressurizing the prices at current levels. Downside in Soybean likely to
remain limited on support of weaker Rupee and Festive demand. CPO at MCX (Oct) witnessed profit
booking at higher levels. RMSEED at NCDEX (Nov) is likely to test next resistance of Rs.3870/qtl.
Overall outlook of the Oil and Oil Seeds complex looks bullish ahead of Festive season. NCDEX (Nov)
Castor extended losses in consecutive sessions on lack of buying support. Castor sowing in Gujarat grew
by 3.72% to 583,700 hectare while cultivation of paddy spurted by 2.87% to 805,400 hectare till Sep 25
compared to same period a year ago, data showed. MCX (Oct) Mentha Oil faced profit booking at higher
levels; fall in prices likely to cushion by robust export demand.
✍ OTHER COMPLEX
Sugar Futures closed higher last week on festival demand but the gain was restricted on expectation that
the production in the country will jump 24% in 2017/18 to around 25 mt. This year the sugarcane
crushing is going to delay due to maintenance work has caused over two weeks of extension in new
season crushing. Raw sugar futures on ICE fell close to 2% on Friday, weighed down largely by
technically-driven selling.The prior session's failure to breach the 50-day moving average attracted
technical selling, with traders pointing to sell stops around 14 cents.MCX Cotton futures closed higher
last week as the demand for new season cotton keeping the prices higher. As per CAI, cotton market is
beginning to show signs of pressure as there is going to be a lot of cotton the world over. In spite of
reports of losses due to recent hurricanes in the US cotton belt, the size of the US crop is expected to be
larger. Indian acreage for the current season (October 2017-September 2018) is expected to jump by
about 12% compared to last year. According to the first advance estimates for 2017-18 released by the
government, India's 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) cotton output is pegged at 322.7 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg),
down 2.5% from 330.9 lakh bales in 2016-17. ICE cotton futures edged up on Friday, supported by
worries about the potential impact of Tropical Storm Nate on the natural fiber crop but gains were limited
as the system was not expected to cause damage in major producing regions Texas and Georgia. Tropical
Storm Nate is going to move towards New Orleans and Birmingham, Alabama, up to Nashville,
Tennessee. There is cotton in that path, but not a massive amount of the crop. Spec traders in cotton
futures and options were shown to lower their CFTC net long position by 5,934 contracts to 51,232
contracts in Cotton futures and options trading.NCDEX (Dec) Cocudakl traded with sideways sentiments
due to profit booking. Kapas and Cotton prices at futures traded sideways due to short covering.
Downside in Kapas likely to remain limited from current levels on support of lower levels buying. Strong
support for KAPAS NCDEX (Apr) seen at Rs. 853/20 K.g level. Chana futures resumed its southward
journey on fresh selling pressure supported by sufficient availability of stocks in spot markets. Downside
likely to remain limited on support of festive demand. Guar futures traded down due to profit booking.
Strong support for Guar NCDEX (Nov) is seen at Rs.3580/qtl levels. Overall sentiments likely to remain
firm on improved export demand and Weak Rupee against US Dollar. Buy on dips is advised to the
traders.
NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
JEERA✍
Jeera prices have been correcting gradually since last few weeks after making a high of 20385 and made a
potential double top chart pattern. Previously prices have rallied strongly for multiple times after taking
strong support at its medium term rising trend line. Currently prices are trading in a corrective move and
are expected to fall further from these levels towards next strong support placed around its rising trend
line near 18200 levels. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed around 19400 and 19900
levels.
✍ REFSOYA
Soy Oil prices have corrected sharply in the last two weeks from its recent high of 682.85. Prices have
broken down from strong support of short term rising trend line and closed below the same in the
previous week.Prices are expected to fall further from these levels towards next strong supports placed
around 23.6% & 38.2% Fibonacci extension of its fall from high of 744.05 till low of 609.45, which are
placed around 651.10 and 631.40 levels respectively. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed
around 664 and 681 levels.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research
Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on
Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best,
represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information
only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any
way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research
expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this
connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities
or commodities.
All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical &
fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for
errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own
choices.
Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these
recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right
to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of
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Commodity Research Report 09 October 2017 Ways2Capital

  • 1.
  • 2. MCX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2017 144.00 143.00 142.00 141.00 140.00 139.00 138.00 137.00 136.00 COPPER 30- NOV-2017 456.50 452.50 448.50 442.50 439.80 435.50 431.50 427.50 422.50 CRUDE OIL 18-OCT-2017 3400 3350 3320 3299 3262 3212 3175 3120 3080 GOLD 05-DEC--2017 29785 29735 29685 29635 29494 29444 29394 29332 29250 LEAD 31-OCT-2017 170.30 169.30 168.30 167.30 166.30 165.30 164.30 163.30 162.30 NATURAL GAS 26-OCT-2017 198.00 196.00 194.00 192.00 189.30 188.00 186.00 184.00 182.00 NICKEL 31-OCT-2017 721 714 707 699.90 693.40 687.00 680.00 673.00 665.00 SILVER 05-DEC--2017 40150 40000 39850 39700 39378 39301 39200 39000 38800 ZINC 31-OCT-2017 218.80 217.80 216.80 215.80 214.80 213.80 212.80 211.80 210.80 MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2017 148.00 146.00 144.00 142.00 140.00 138.00 136.00 134.00 132.00 COPPER 30- NOV-2017 466.50 463.50 456.50 448.50 439.80 431.50 422.50 417.50 412.50 CRUDE OIL 18-OCT-2017 3550 3470 3400 3320 3262 3175 3080 3010 2950 GOLD 05-DEC--2017 29985 29885 29785 29685 29494 29394 29250 29150 29050 LEAD 31-OCT-2017 174.30 172.30 170.30 168.30 166.30 164.30 162.30 160.30 158.30 NATURAL GAS 26-OCT-2017 206.00 202.00 198.00 194.00 189.30 186.00 182.00 178.00 174.00 NICKEL 31-OCT-2017 765.00 745.00 721 707 693.40 680.00 665.00 645.00 625.00 SILVER 05-DEC--2017 40999 40500 40150 39850 39378 39200 38800 38200 37800 ZINC 31-OCT-2017 222.20 220.80 218.80 216.80 214.80 212.80 210.80 208.80 206.80 Monday 09 October 2017
  • 3. FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 27-OCT-17 66.51 66.25 66.00 65.75 65.45 65.22 65.01 64.75 64.51 EURINR 27-OCT-17 77.50 77.30 77.10 76.99 76.83 76.73 76.53 76.33 76.13 GBPINR 27-OCT-17 86.78 86.48 86.08 85.99 85.78 85.50 85.20 84.90 84.70 JPYINR 27-OCT-17 58.70 58.61 58.51 58.40 58.25 58.19 58.11 58.01 57.91 FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 27-OCT-17 67.51 67.01 66.51 66.00 65.45 65.01 64.51 64.01 63.51 EURINR 27-OCT-17 78.20 77.90 77.50 77.10 76.83 76.53 76.13 75.83 75.60 GBPINR 27-OCT-17 87.78 87.28 86.78 86.08 85.78 85.20 84.70 84.10 83.70 JPYINR 27-OCT-17 59.11 58.91 58.71 58.51 58.31 58.11 57.91 57.71 57.51
  • 4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ✍ BULLION Bullion counter may trade on positive path as weaker greenback and safe haven demand can give support to the prices. Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee will give further direction to the prices. Gold can move in range of 29300-29700 while silver can move in range of 39000-40000 in near term. Gold prices rose early on Monday, pulling further away from a two-month low, as fresh concerns over North Korea's nuclear ambitions stoked safehaven demand for the precious metal and weighed on the dollar. The dollar held steady against the yen on Monday, having retreated from 12-week highs set last week, due to a renewed focus on geopolitical risks amid concerns that North Korea may be preparing another missile test. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un said his nuclear weapons were a "powerful deterrent" that guaranteed its sovereignty, state media reported on Sunday, hours after US President Donald Trump said "only one thing will work" in dealing with the isolated country. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts for the third straight week, in the week to Oct. 3, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.Gold bounced up from a two-month low on Friday, on concerns stoked by a Russian report that North Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile and on support from the U.S. dollar's shift into negative territory. Earlier, bullion fell to a two-month low at $1,260.16 an ounce on an upbeat reading of the U.S. unemployment rate and wage growth last month that supported expectations for a further U.S. interest rate hike in December. This pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher. Gold prices have fallen 0.5 percent this week and are facing their fourth straight week of decline, the metal's longest run of weekly losses this year. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, have fallen 13.6 tonnes so far this week, their first weekly outflow in nine weeks and the largest since late July. Demand for physical gold in India improved slightly this week because of a correction in local prices, but restrictions on the industry and increased smuggling took the sheen off the bullion market.SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood at 856.08 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day. Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10129.51 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.Indian authorities withdrew on Friday an amendment that made jewellers subject to anti-money laundering legislation and caused a drop in gold sales. The Prevention of Money Laundering Act obliges banks and other financial institutions to report all cash transactions above 50,000 rupees ($765) to the government, including customers' personal identification numbers or tax codes.
  • 5. ✍ BASE METAL Base metals complex may witness some profit booking at higher levels. China markets have opened today after week long national day holidays. Copper may trade in range of 433-442. Aluminum can move in the range of 138-142 in MCX. Nickel can move in range of 685-710. Lead can hover in the range of 163-169. Zinc may move in range of 213- 218. Meanwhile, metals found support as the dollar edged back from more than two-month highs as immediate concerns about North Korea's long-range missile capabilities receded. Business activity in China's services sector grew at its slowest pace in 21 months in September as the pace of new business cooled, a private survey showed. The survey was in sharp contrast to an official gauge of the non-manufacturing sector that showed the services sector expanded at the fastest clip since 2014 in September, blurring the picture on how a key part of the economy is performing. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options for the fourth straight week, in the week to Oct. 3, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. Copper registered its largest weekly gain since late August, underpinned by expectations of strong demand from top consumer China, though a strengthening dollar capped price rises. The metal used in power and construction has risen more than 20 percent this year and was on track for a 2.9 percent weekly gain. The U.S. currency was set for a fourth consecutive week of gains, helped by expectations of a U.S. interest rate rise in December. A stronger dollar makes industrial metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand. Zinc prices have risen more than 26 percent this year as a Chinese crackdown on polluting industry curbed output, with inventories in LME warehouses dropping to their lowest since 2009. U.S. employment fell in September because of the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but the unemployment rate and wage growth suggested an improving labour market.Indonesian President Joko Widodo called for faster progress to wrap up a deal with FreeportMcMoRan Inc on rights to the giant Grasberg copper mine, which the U.S. firm owns, officials said on Friday. The chief executive of the world's biggest publicly traded copper company which under a framework deal agreed in August to divest 51 percent of the mine held talks with officials in Jakarta earlier in the day. The U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday it would defer issuing its preliminary determination in an anti-dumping duty probe into imports of aluminum foil from China. The department said in a statement the delay would allow it "to fully analyze information pertaining to China's status as a non-market economy (NME) country.
  • 6. ✍ ENERGY Crude oil may open on flat note as it can trade in range of 3200-3280. Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Monday with investors focused on fairly busy week of data points on supply and demand. Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Monday with investors focused on fairly busy week of data points on supply and demand. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Wednesday and Thursday to further weigh what the impact of recent storm activity was on supply and demand. The market is also waiting on President Donald Trump’s decision on Thursday on whether or not to certify Iran’s compliance with the international nuclear deal. The Persian nation is an OPEC member and key Middle Eastern oil producer. Last week, oil prices plunged on Friday, snapping a multi-week bull run amid renewed oversupply concerns, with investor attention shifting to a potential disruption to crude production and refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nate bore down on the region. Natural gas may move in range of 185-192. Oil futures fell more than 2 percent on Friday, ending Brent crude's longest multi-week rally in 16 months as oversupply concerns reappeared as producers have started hedging future drilling. Russia clarified remarks made by President Vladimir Putin about the oil market earlier this week, saying he did not propose extending a global oil output cut deal but said he recognised it was a possibility. The prospect of extended oil production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia had supported prices in recent sessions. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on Thursday he was "flexible" about prolonging the production-curbing pact until the end of 2018. However, concerns linger about growing U.S. crude exports, due to a hefty WTI discount to Brent prices, which makes U.S. oil more competitive. U.S. crude exports' rise to a record of nearly 2 million barrels per day last week and the growth in U.S. production to 9.56 million bpd has fanned some concerns about oversupply. The Baker Hughes' report on the U.S. oil drilling rigs, an early indicator of future output, showed the rig count fall in for the fourth week out of the last five. OPEC and other oil producers may need to take "some extraordinary measures" next year to rebalance the oil market, the OPEC secretary-general said on Sunday. State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco is in talks with several Indian refiners and hopes to land a joint venture deal by next year, the company's chief executive told Reuters on Sunday. Some oil ports, producers and refiners in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama that shut facilities ahead of Hurricane Nate were planning reopenings as the storm moved inland on Sunday, away from most energy infrastructure on the U.S. Gulf Coast.Indian oil-to-telecoms conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd has agreed to sell a shale oil and gas block in the United States for $126 million, a third of the price it paid seven years ago, amid a downturn in global oil prices.
  • 7. MCX TECHNICAL VIEW GOLD✍ In the last week, Gold prices opened flat and prices corrected for most of the week till low of 29312. Prices recovered strongly in the last session and closed flat on weekly basis. Prices have broken down from its short term rising trend line support in the previous week and corrected sharply after that.Prices have made a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern on the monthly chart, which is suggesting further correction towards next strong support placed around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally from low of 27603 till high of 30474, which is placed around 28700 level. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed around 29703 and 30208 levels.
  • 8. CRUDE OIL✍ In the last week, Crude Oil prices opened lower with gap and prices corrected for most of the week till low of 3223. Previously prices have rallied after taking strong support around 50% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from low of 1805 till high of 3780, which is placed around 2792 level. Prices have made a potential inverse head and shoulder chart pattern, which is a bullish pattern. Neckline of the pattern is placed around 3680 level. Prices are expected to rise further from these levels towards immediate resistance placed around its neckline near 3682 level. On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 3232 and 3011 levels.
  • 9. COPPER✍ Copper prices opened slightly lower with gap in the last week and prices consolidated for first half of the week in the range of 426-432 levels. Later prices rose strongly for the remaining week till high of 442.20.  Prices have resumed its bullish trend in the last three weeks after taking strong support around its previous multiple highs placed near 415 level. Prices are expected to continue this rally towards immediate resistance placed around its recent high of 451.35 level, which is also around 78.6% Fibonacci extension of its previous rally from low of 291.50 till high of 414.80 level. On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 432 and 419 levels.
  • 10. NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-NOV 2017 667.00 665.00 663.00 661.00 659.00 657.00 655.00 653.00 651.00 SYBEANIDR 20-NOV 2017 3017 2995 2970 2945 2917 2890 2865 2840 2810 RMSEED 20-NOV 2017 3830 3800 3770 3740 3715 3690 3660 3630 3600 JEERAUNJHA 20-NOV 2017 19550 19450 19350 19150 19055 18900 18800 18700 18600 GUARSEED10 20-NOV 2017 3790 3750 3720 3695 3671 3650 3620 3590 3560 TMC 20-NOV 2017 7598 7548 7498 7448 7398 7348 7298 7248 7198 NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-NOV 2017 673.00 670.00 667.00 663.00 659.00 655.00 651.00 648.00 645.00 SYBEANIDR 20-NOV 2017 3117 3070 3017 2970 2917 2865 2810 2765 2710 RMSEED 20-NOV 2017 3930 3870 3830 3770 3715 3660 3600 3540 3470 JEERAUNJHA 20-NOV 2017 19950 19750 19550 19350 19055 18800 18600 18400 18200 GUARSEED10 20-NOV 2017 3890 3820 3790 3720 3671 3620 3560 3530 3480 TMC 20-NOV 2017 7798 7698 7598 7498 7398 7298 7198 7098 6998
  • 11. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ SPICE COMPLEX NCDEX Jeera for Nov delivery closed lower last week on subdued demand from the physical players due to weak physical demand as exports are usually lower during the months of September, October and November. As per government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jun) is 49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. Moreover, there are assumptions that the area under jeera may increase by more than 30% in coming rabi season due to higher prices. The arrivals have been lower during September at 6,529 tonnes compared to 7,103 tonnes in August. India's jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn. Turmeric futures for Nov delivery closed lower last week but still trend looks sideways to lower due to beneficial rains in the southern peninsula. The export of turmeric is down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, as on 27th Sep, down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares. The production estimate of turmeric for 2016/17 is pegged at 11.32 lakh tonnes by government in 3rd advance estimate higher from 9.43 lakh tonnes in 2015/16. Dhaniya futures failed to sustain at higher levels tracking weak fundamentals and profit booking. Jeera and Turmeric futures traded with negative bias on lack of buying interest from traders. Cardamom futures faced selling pressure due to profit booking. Prices of Turmeric are likely to resume its upswing and Cross Rs. 8000/qtl levels in coming sessions at NCDEX (Nov) futures on expectation of lower output due to unsupportive weather conditions in major growing areas. Prices of Jeera are likely to get support at lower levels and test resistance of Rs.20050/qtl at NCDEX (Nov) due to low availability of stock in physical market and quality concerns. Upside in Dhaniya futures can be use to initiate fresh shorts as fundamentals of the commodity are bearish. India exported 3,06,990 tonnes of Spices worth Rs 4,589.14 crore during the first quarter of the 2017-18 financial year, up 35% as compared to 2,27,938 tonnes in the corresponding period last year, the Spices Board of India said. Below normal monsoon rainfall in major growing regions, lower carryover stocks and better export demand likely to support Cardamom prices in near term.
  • 12. ✍ OILSEED COMPLEX NCDEX Soybean Nov futures recorded second successive fall last week on expectation of increase in arrivals from new season crop. Moreover, extend in the limits on stocks of oilseeds and edible oils with traders and mills till September 30, 2018 also bearish for the oilseeds. As the prices of soybean move below the MSP in key physical markets, central government has given approval for procurement of 100,000 tn soybean from farmers in Maharashtra and 150,000 tn of the oilseed from Rajasthan at minimum support price. U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Friday, to a one-week high in the final minutes of trade on technical buying and worries about dry weather hampering planting in Brazil. Concerns about rains slowing down the U.S. harvest, which was already behind the typical pace, added strength to soybeans. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed soybean futures and options spec traders trimming their net long position by just 562 contracts to 27,758 contracts as of Tuesday. Analysts are expecting next Thursday’s WASDE to show a national yield of 49.9 bps, even with the USDA’s previous number. SAFRAS and Mercado increased their 2017/18 Brazilian soybean production estimate 1.5 mt to 114. mt. Mustard Nov futures see some fresh buying on Thursday by the market participants. However, reports of higher stock levels in the country and good physical demand from the oil mills is keeping the price steady. As per data compiled by Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills across the country crushed 425,000 tn of mustard seed in September, down around 6% from previous month.There are improved mustard meal exports in first 5 month of FY 2017/18. Country exported 216,258 tonnes mustard meal during this period which is 122% higher on year. Country's top mustard producing state, Rajasthan, has set a target of 37.7 lakh tonnes production in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun), 4.3% lower from the output a year ago.MCX CPO closed lower last week but traded mostly sideways due to higher supplies in the domestic market. The prices have been supported at higher levels due to increase in tariff value for the first half of October. The government increased the base import price of all palm oils, with the steepest hike of $30 per tn for refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil. The base import prices of refined, bleached and deodorised palmolein, and crude palmolein were raised by $28 per tn each. The stock of CPO as on 1st Sept., 2017 at various ports is estimated at 3.4 lakh tonnes compared to 2.7 lakh tonnes in previous month.
  • 13. According to SEA release, during NovemberAugust period, crude palm oil import increased to 50.82 lt from 46.70 lt during the same period of the previous oil year. Malaysian palm oil traded higher on Friday ahead of the release of official data for September, charting a fourth straight day of gains and finishing the week stronger after two consecutive weeks of decline. Traders are expecting September output rising to 1.84 million tonnes, the strongest in nearly two years, while exports are forecast to gain 7.8 percent to 1.60 million tonnes. Malaysia's palm oil shipments during Sept were about 10 % up and expectations are that production will top demand in the same month so that ending stocks may grow. Refined Soy Oil Nov futures closed lower last week taking clues from the International Soyoil which falls close to 0.8% last week. Soy oil the prices in physical market were supported by good retail demand as festival season in the country is nearing. Moreover, weak rupees and increase in import tax also supported prices. Government kept the base import price of crude soyoil was kept unchanged at $851/tonnes for the first half of October. The government revises the base import prices every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. Prices were last revised on Sep 15. Soybean at NCDEX (Nov) traded down tracking sufficient availability of stock in spot market vs demand. Higher arrivals are pressurizing the prices at current levels. Downside in Soybean likely to remain limited on support of weaker Rupee and Festive demand. CPO at MCX (Oct) witnessed profit booking at higher levels. RMSEED at NCDEX (Nov) is likely to test next resistance of Rs.3870/qtl. Overall outlook of the Oil and Oil Seeds complex looks bullish ahead of Festive season. NCDEX (Nov) Castor extended losses in consecutive sessions on lack of buying support. Castor sowing in Gujarat grew by 3.72% to 583,700 hectare while cultivation of paddy spurted by 2.87% to 805,400 hectare till Sep 25 compared to same period a year ago, data showed. MCX (Oct) Mentha Oil faced profit booking at higher levels; fall in prices likely to cushion by robust export demand.
  • 14. ✍ OTHER COMPLEX Sugar Futures closed higher last week on festival demand but the gain was restricted on expectation that the production in the country will jump 24% in 2017/18 to around 25 mt. This year the sugarcane crushing is going to delay due to maintenance work has caused over two weeks of extension in new season crushing. Raw sugar futures on ICE fell close to 2% on Friday, weighed down largely by technically-driven selling.The prior session's failure to breach the 50-day moving average attracted technical selling, with traders pointing to sell stops around 14 cents.MCX Cotton futures closed higher last week as the demand for new season cotton keeping the prices higher. As per CAI, cotton market is beginning to show signs of pressure as there is going to be a lot of cotton the world over. In spite of reports of losses due to recent hurricanes in the US cotton belt, the size of the US crop is expected to be larger. Indian acreage for the current season (October 2017-September 2018) is expected to jump by about 12% compared to last year. According to the first advance estimates for 2017-18 released by the government, India's 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) cotton output is pegged at 322.7 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), down 2.5% from 330.9 lakh bales in 2016-17. ICE cotton futures edged up on Friday, supported by worries about the potential impact of Tropical Storm Nate on the natural fiber crop but gains were limited as the system was not expected to cause damage in major producing regions Texas and Georgia. Tropical Storm Nate is going to move towards New Orleans and Birmingham, Alabama, up to Nashville, Tennessee. There is cotton in that path, but not a massive amount of the crop. Spec traders in cotton futures and options were shown to lower their CFTC net long position by 5,934 contracts to 51,232 contracts in Cotton futures and options trading.NCDEX (Dec) Cocudakl traded with sideways sentiments due to profit booking. Kapas and Cotton prices at futures traded sideways due to short covering. Downside in Kapas likely to remain limited from current levels on support of lower levels buying. Strong support for KAPAS NCDEX (Apr) seen at Rs. 853/20 K.g level. Chana futures resumed its southward journey on fresh selling pressure supported by sufficient availability of stocks in spot markets. Downside likely to remain limited on support of festive demand. Guar futures traded down due to profit booking. Strong support for Guar NCDEX (Nov) is seen at Rs.3580/qtl levels. Overall sentiments likely to remain firm on improved export demand and Weak Rupee against US Dollar. Buy on dips is advised to the traders.
  • 15. NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW JEERA✍ Jeera prices have been correcting gradually since last few weeks after making a high of 20385 and made a potential double top chart pattern. Previously prices have rallied strongly for multiple times after taking strong support at its medium term rising trend line. Currently prices are trading in a corrective move and are expected to fall further from these levels towards next strong support placed around its rising trend line near 18200 levels. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed around 19400 and 19900 levels.
  • 16. ✍ REFSOYA Soy Oil prices have corrected sharply in the last two weeks from its recent high of 682.85. Prices have broken down from strong support of short term rising trend line and closed below the same in the previous week.Prices are expected to fall further from these levels towards next strong supports placed around 23.6% & 38.2% Fibonacci extension of its fall from high of 744.05 till low of 609.45, which are placed around 651.10 and 631.40 levels respectively. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed around 664 and 681 levels.
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