Politieke monitoring sociale media discusses political monitoring of social media. It notes that Twitter is the most important platform for political discussion in the Netherlands, with over 1.6 million political messages in the month before the 2012 election. It also finds that sentiment analysis can measure sentiment toward political parties and leaders but that the relationship between sentiment and election outcomes is unclear. Total message volumes do correlate with election results.

1. Politieke monitoring sociale media
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6. Conversation and communication

7. Conversation and communication
Page § 7

8. Conversation and communication
Page § 8

9. From
my
fathers
century
to my
sons
century

12. Facebook
Daily in NL
12.000.000

13. Twitter
Daily tweets in NL
5.000.000

14. Sources Dutch social web
In the Netherlands
390.000

15. Social media use per agegroup
social media
100
90
80
70
60
50
social media
40
30
20
10
0
20 - 34 jaar 35 - 49 jaar 50 - 64 jaar 65 jaar e.o.
Feb.
2012,
O&S
Amsterdam

17. The
new
electronic
interdependence
recreates
the
world
in
the
image
of
a
global
village
Marshall
McLuhan

18. # political messages
25 Maart tot en met 23 September 2012
Verkiezingen
5
Miljoen
berichten!
Val
kabinet
Programma’s

19. # last month before election
2,2 Miljoen berichten (normaal is ongeveer 50.000 per maand)
Verkiezingsdag
RTL
Premier-­‐debat
RTL
Carre-­‐debat
NOS
Slotdebat
EO
debat

20. Sources political messages
Van de 2,2 Miljoen totaal in maand voorafgaand aan de verkiezingen
Bron Aantal
Twitter 1.644.184
Nieuws 224.855
Facebook 96.168
Forum 50.135
Blog 35.105
Hyves 21.967
Overigen Minder dan 1%
Twi,er
is
the
most
important
social
pla5orm
for
poli7cal
discussion

21. Authors in last month before election
Verdeling over Twitteraars
• Roelfina090444 stuurde
5767 berichten!
• Bovenste 500 samen 300.000 berichten
– Ongeveer 15%, 500ste heeft bijna 300 berichten gestuurd in
30 dagen tijd
• Totaal 300.000 auteurs

22. How to determine sentiment
Volgen van specifiek sentiment in relatie tot lijsttrekkers
Y-­‐as
is
percentage,
totaal
vier
lijs<rekkers
is
100%

23. Role sentiment in debates
“Mijnheer Rutte, nu doet u het weer.
Opmerking bij de start stuurt sentiment
hele debat

24. Role sentiment in debates
Ook scherpe stijging aantal reacties na “U doet het weer
“Nu
doet
u
het
weer”

25. Role sentiment in debates
Wilders maakte vooral theater en krijgt daar veel “positieve”
aandacht mee

26. Carré debat
1 op 1 sessies scoren

27. Winnaar Carré debat?

28. Partij of partijleider
Samsom trekt PVDA omhoog

29. Voorspellende waarde
Op basis van aantallen berichten, berekend op basis van trendlijnen
Premier-­‐debat
VVD
41
PVDA
40
SP
15
PVV
15
CDA
12

30. Conclusions
• Sentiment can be measured but relation to the election
outcome is hazy
– VVD had in general a negative sentiment but did win the
election
• Total number of messages per party/chairman has a
relation to election outcome (2010/2012)
– But tuning the statistical message is still a challenge
• Social monitoring delivers valuable information for a
political party
– Buzz and sentiment can steer attitude and content in debates

31. Project X Haren
De wisselwerking tussen massa en sociale media

32. Project X Haren
A
16
year
old
girl
invites
some
friends
to
het
sweet
sixteen
party…

33. Project X Haren
Before Merthe’s invitation already a regular stream on ProjectX
Ongeveer
150
berichten
per
dag
Alle
data:
bron

34. Project X Haren
7 September plaatst Merthe haar uitnodiging
Slechts
401
berichten
tot
en
met
17
September!
(Facebook
32
originele
berichten
waar
219
reac2es
op
zijn
gegeven.
Reac2es
komen
bovenop
de
401.
Twicer
Gemiddeld
2
reac2es
op
bericht.
Totaal
maakt
dat
ongeveer
1000
berichten
In
10
dagen)

35. Project X Haren
Until 17th of September mainly
messages from region Groningen

36. Project X Haren
18th September 10:39 message in national newspaper

37. Project X Haren
National TV broadcaster NOS places message on website

38. Project X Haren
Tweet from NOS on 15:29 starts the real buzz on social
media

39. Project X Haren
Evening on the 18th of September the buzz
grows again after the late news items NOS and
RTL4
In
de
avond
van
de
18e
September
Komt
ProjectX
Haren
op
TV,
late
journaal
en
Nieuws

40. Project X Haren
At that moment subjects covered are mainly about the government
actions itself

41. Project X Haren
Messages spread but are still
mainly from the Groningen region

42. Project X Haren
19th and 20th September it grows to 11.000 messages. Main
subject is youth planning to join the “party”

43. Project X Haren
Messages are more and more comming from all
over the country
Nog
steeds
65%
van
de
berichten
uit
de
regio
Groningen

44. Project X Haren
21th of September during the day the number of messages grows
f100 per minute, mainly people discussing a visit

45. Project X Haren
In the evening it further growths, especially after 20:30. Topics mainly
from younger people

46. Project X Haren
Late in the evening it growts to almost 2000 messages a
minute when the Dutch follow the riots on TV
Main
topic:
catch
the
rioteers

47. Project X Haren
Discussion in the whole of the
Netherlands

48. Project X Haren
The day after most of the discussion focuses on who is
to blame
Totaal
350.000
berichten

49. Project X Haren
A Perfect Storm
• Recent film “Project X”
– Popular movie among young people
• Mass media that focus attention
– Government preparation makes the issue
“serious”
• Ability to organise with social media
– Easier to assemble and coordinate groups
– “Cooperation without coordination”
• Hooligans
– Hooligans finding new channels because
socker is protected

50. Project X Haren

51. Project X Haren
Verantwoording
• Invitational pages for party are not used
– Because “liking” is a low participation action
• Some facebook and twitter pages are closed
– But closed accounts are not very viral
• “Professional hooligans do not communicate over open channels
– But hooligans need a crowd and you nee open channels to create a crowd

52. Project X Arnhem
The start
In
the
evening
a
Facebook
page
is
made
that
immediately
a,racts
a,en7on
in
the
night
Messages
mainly
from
Arnhem

53. Project X Arnhem
Page creation until 28th
September (date of the “party”)
Prac7cally
no
buzz
from
the
crea7on
of
the
page
un7l
the
date
of
the
party

54. Project X Arnhem
Afternoon 28th September
15:30
ar7cle
on
the
government
ac7on
by
the
NOS
on
the
webpage

55. Project X Arnhem
Late afternoon, early evening
Short
burst
of
a,en7on
due
to
the
police
barricades
at
the
entrance
of
the
city
Hardly
any
conversa7on
of
youth
talking
about
going
to
the
party

56. Proposal Creative Industries
News
dynamics
in
networks
of
media,
stakeholders
and
audiences:
trajectories
of
aIenJon
and
senJment
in
semanJc
networks

57. Marketingfacts jaarboek 2012
http://www.marketingfacts.nl/jaarboek/

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