On Wednesday 21 October 2015, the British Embassy in Paris hosted a workshop which examined recent severe weather events in France and the UK and looked at how learning from these events could be shared between the two countries. Participating on the day were the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Mark Walport, former vice-chair of IPCC WKI Dr. Jean Jouzel, and representatives from the Met Office and Meteo France, UK and French government departments with a role in national emergency planning and response, and the French and UK insurance sectors.

1. UK Embassy
Resilience against Extreme Weather
Jean Jouzel
With a key contribution of Robert Vautard
LSCE/IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Saclay

4. UK
and
FR
less
impacted
than
other
EU
countries
in
a
2°C
warmer
climate
Results
from
ENSEMBLES
simula@ons
(FP7
IMPACT2C
project)
Changes
in
Temperature
Rela2ve
to
1971-­‐2000
Changes
in
Precipita2on
Rela2ve
to
1971-­‐2000
More
rain
Less
rain
Both
Warmer

5. Weather
events
to
expect
in
the
future
in
Europe
• More
heat
waves,
more
intense
and
long
• Less
cold
spells
• More
intense
precipita@on
(several
types)
• More
droughts
(due
to
heat
and
lack
of
precipita@on)
• More
high
sea
level
events
(storm
surges)

6. UK
More
intense
precipita@on
and
floods
January
2014
extreme
precipita@on
amount
aUributed
to
climate
change
(Schaller
et
al,
submiUed)
More
extreme
sea
level
Less
cold
spells

7. FR
More
extreme
precipita@on
and
flash
floods
(ex
here
in
the
Cévennes
range)
1/7/2015
More
heat
and
droughts
Less
cold
spells

8. Precipitation change in winter (RCP 8.5)

9. Hot
summers
in
+2°C
et
+3°C
climates
near
Paris
Source:
FP7
IMPACT2C
Observed
and
simulated
summer
temperatures
in
the
Paris
area

11. AUribu@ng
current
weather
events:
An
important
learning
step
for
designing
future
measures:
-­‐
Providing
to
the
media
and
large
public
the
understanding
of
consequences
of
climate
change
through
current
events
as
they
come
-­‐
Providing
reliable
informa@on
to
stakeholders
that
can
trigger
decision
for
adapta@on
&
mi@ga@on

12. FP7
EUCLEIA
Towards
an
opera@onal
aUribu@on
service
• UK
Met
Office
led
project
with
strong
french
collabora@on,
together
with
other
EU
countries
(CH,
DE,
DK,
ES,
NL)
• Design
a
pre-­‐opera@onal
service
providing
change
in
odds
of
weather
events
and
uncertainty
when/acer
they
occur
and
interpret
the
event
in
the
context
of
climate
change

13. January 2014 Precipitation in South England
Increase
in
risk
of
the
JANUARY
2014
precipita@on
amount
since
pre-­‐industrial
:
+40%
[0%:160%]
20 50 100 200 500
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
5.4
Return period [years]
Januarymeanprecipitation[mm/day]
Actual Conditions
pooled Natural
individual Natural
Schaller
et
al.,
2015,
in
revision
Current
climate
Preindustrial
climate

14. 2015
July
Heatwave
in
Europe
Températures
of
1-­‐2-­‐3
july
2015
in
MANHEIM
Thanks
to
Friederike
O0o
Oxford
University
Current
Climate:
1x
per
30
years
Preindustrial
climate
1x
per
200
years