On Thursday 19 November 2015, the British Embassy in Paris hosted a second trilateral workshop with French, German and British delegates from the research, government and business sectors to discuss the importance of energy storage.

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21/10/2015
The Operational Railway –
Severe Weather Events and
Climate Change
Dr Brian D Haddock

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Contents
Current extreme weather events and associated risks
Seasonal variation and associated risks
Climate Change – Frequency and Intensity of Events
Mitigating seasonal variation and extreme weather events
Processes for managing and mitigating weather risks
Future Risks UKCP09 models
Tomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adaptation
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Weather-impact on train services…Schedule 8
01/14/16

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Weather-impact on train services…Schedule 8 delay
01/14/16

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Impact of river flood…
Cowley Bridge, Devon 25th
November 2013

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Surface water flooding January/February 2014…
Maidenhead
Somerset Levels

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Impact of rainfall on earthworks…
Teignmouth, Devon 28th
November 2013

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Impact on safety…
SAFETY
RISK

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Train borne - mitigation
• MPV and RHTT trains (main mitigation) which water jet ground-in
leaf debris off the rails at 1,500 bar pressure. These are deployed
across the country, already up and running
Autumn Management:
PDG > Phil Hufton Jan 14, 2016 9
Seasonal Planning and Mitigation – Autumn and Winter

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Autumnal Weather Conditions
• Despite all the prep, performance will depend on the weather. Wet,
windy/stormy days have a very high impact
• New weather forecasting and EWATs in place to anticipate and
manage
• severity of the season depends on how many of those we get
• So far the weather has been benign but the forecast is generally for
an ‘active’ autumn
• Impact of storms is significant for performance as in autumn 2013
Autumn Management:
PDG > Phil Hufton Jan 14, 2016 10
07/10/2013
10/10/2013
11/10/2013
12/10/2013
18/10/2013
22/10/2013
24/10/2013
23/10/2013
26/10/2013
27/10/2013
28/10/2013
29/10/2013
30/10/2013
03/11/2013
04/11/2013
14/11/2013
15/11/2013
16/11/2013
21/11/2013
20/11/2013
22/11/2013
23/11/2013
24/11/2013
29/11/2013
30/11/2013
01/12/2013
03/12/2013
04/12/2013
05/12/2013
06/12/2013
07/12/2013
08/12/2013
09/12/2013
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07/10/2013
09/10/2013
11/10/2013
13/10/2013
15/10/2013
17/10/2013
19/10/2013
21/10/2013
23/10/2013
25/10/2013
27/10/2013
29/10/2013
31/10/2013
02/11/2013
04/11/2013
06/11/2013
08/11/2013
10/11/2013
12/11/2013
14/11/2013
16/11/2013
18/11/2013
20/11/2013
22/11/2013
24/11/2013
26/11/2013
28/11/2013
30/11/2013
02/12/2013
04/12/2013
06/12/2013
08/12/2013
Minute
delay
–
storm
events

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Winter Management PDG > Phil Hufton
Jan 14, 2016 11
• Winter – Industry Ready
• Good cross industry working with NTF and ATOC on winter preparedness
• ‘Off the shelf’ winter timetables available if heavy snow is forecast
-developed between routes and TOCs
• A well rehearsed and developed Extreme Weather Process with forecast
warning system
• TOC preparation of their own fleet for heavy snow conditions
Severe Weather Warning Page

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Winter Management PDG > Phil Hufton
Jan 14, 2016 12
• Seasonal fleet equipped and ready to run to de-ice conductor rails
and plough snow
• Delivery Units prepared - equipment checks undertaken on
infrastructure
• Station, depots and walk ways prepared for gritting and ice
clearance
• Route proving locomotives

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Affects of changing weather patterns – Intensity & Frequency – Dawlish Sea
Wall (Devon) 4th
Feb 2014 – 40 m
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Lineside Neighbours
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Autumn Management: PDG > Robin Gisby
Jan 14, 2016 16

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£14 Million to repair

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Measures introduced to mitigate the causes of
disruption…
Snow and Ice Treatment Trains and
Points Enhancement
Targeted tree clearance
for resilience in high
winds
Improved drainage
management
Coastal defence review
Earthworks remote
monitoring
01/14/16

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Demountable Flood Defences
Mitigate the consequences of disruption…
Flood Hungary 2014 Large-scale pumps
High Marnham 2013
01/14/16
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Coastal AlertsIdentify Vulnerable Earthworks
Improving weather forecasting
accuracy
Flood Alerts at high risk sites
Mitigate the consequences of disruption…
introduced to mitigate the consequences of disruption…
01/14/16
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Climate Change Predictions: Heat
01/14/16
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3
4
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6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
TemperatureChange(°C)
2080s
2070s
2060s
2050s
2040s
2030s
2020s
Kent

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Climate Change Predictions: (Winter) Rain
01/14/16
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecDailyPrecipitationChange(%)
2080s
2070s
2060s
2050s
2040s
2030s
2020s
Kent

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The UK Climate Change Projections
2009 anticipates that, by 2080 under the
medium emission scenarios, the UK
climate will change as follows:
•Mean daily maximum temperatures
(2080s relative to 1961-1990, medium
emissions) are projected to increase
across the UK. Increases in the summer
average are up to 5.4ºC (2.2 to 9.5ºC) in
parts of southern England
•Variations of summer and winter
precipitations of between -40% and +33%
respectively
Phase 1 – Examples of future climate change
• Sea level rise of between 12 and
76cm by 2095 (compared with a
1980-99 baseline)
• Changes in storm surge. For
example in the Bristol Channel
and Severn Estuary, an increase
in 50-yr surge return level of
around 0.8mm per year
• Increase in the number of
lightning days are projected for all
four seasons across the whole of
the UK
TRaCCA- Tomorrows Railway and Climate Change
Adaptation

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What are we doing about the climate
scenarios?
T1009 = Tomorrow’s Railway and
Climate Change Adaptation Programme
A RSSB funded research study
sponsored by the Technical Strategy
Leadership Group (TSLG)
T1009 explores the need to increase the
resilience of the GB railway in response
to anticipated changes in key climate
variables

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Future climate change will impact the GB railway – as a whole system and its sub-
systems
The rail industry has commissioned T1009 to improve industry understanding of
these impacts and provide support tools for adaptation / resilience decisions
A system-wide approach is important when considering targeted and prioritised
investments
T1009 is considering the whole GB railway system and its global supply chains
Even a small change in average temperatures will have a significant impact on
the system
Some lessons – many – are relevant for the infrastructure ‘sector’ more widely
Why is this important?

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1. What is the projected climatic change in the UK over the next 50
years?
2. What are the likely impacts of climate change and extreme weather
on the railway?
3. What actions can be taken by GB rail industry in response to these
potential impacts?
4. What are the proposed future actions, including 'quick wins' which
can be implemented over the next few years?
5. What are the requirements for additional decision support
frameworks, processes, and tools, to permit cost-effective action to
be taken?
Key questions that T1009 has been asked to clarify

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T1009 Programme
October 2015 April 2019

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 There is a wide range of climate
change and extreme weather related
impacts that could potentially affect
the GB railway system, its
subsystems, and related assets.
 Weather impact is currently estimated
to cost the industry 1.6 million delay
minutes a year, or about £50 million a
year (source: Network Rail Analysis
Report, September 2014).
 Forecasting the next few days’
weather will be an increasing
challenge.
Phase 1 - Impacts of Climate Change
Nature of climate change Possible impacts
High temperatures Rail buckling, excessive
overhead line sag,
passenger/worker
discomfort
Low temperatures Damage, disruption, slips,
trips and falls, reduced
brake effectiveness from
snow and ice falls
High precipitation events Earthworks failure and
landslides, slips, trips and
falls, bridge scour, floods
High sea levels and storm
surge
Coastal erosion, damage
to sea walls, earthwork
failure)
High winds Damage to equipment and
lineside fires

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Phase 2 Learning points
Task 4 – The railway: a ‘System of Systems’, lead UCL/ Beckford
Consulting
Illustrated schematically across seven areas
 Includes ‘Supply Chain’ and ‘Governance’
Organisationally nested
 Lower levels given the remit to act from higher levels
Different timescales can apply
Need ‘feedback’ between levels for optimal management
Informative and timely as a systems approach is advocated by UK
Regulators’ Network among others
Strategic
Operational
Local/Specific
Socio-Political
System of
Systems
Model
Nested Levels
Economics & FinancePerformance
& Metrics
Emergent Shared Understanding

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Impacts and potential resilience
measures
Temperature
Precipitation
Weather Events
Sea Level Rise
Extreme High
Rail buckling
Passenger Discomfort
Extreme Low
Ice build-on rolling stock
Freeze thaw at cuttings
Rapid Changes
Lineside electronic
equipment affecting
power, signalling,
telecomms
• Maintain tracks to more resistant specifications
• Clutter-free design for underside of vehicles
• De-icing measures used prior to entry into service
• Rock removal activity on a cyclic basis & Netting of rock cuttings
Extreme High
Flooding
Scour of Bridge Piers
Landslips
Extreme Winds
Catenary failure
Tree Fall
Coastal Flooding
eg: Dawlish BUT DON”T
FORGET WALES etc!!
Extreme Drought
Dessication of clay
formations
Increased Humidity
Leaf contamination
Loss of braking mu
Loss of track circuits
Lightning
Interference with
electronics
EMC
• Improve drainage
• Improve scour protection
• Vegetation management
• Protect vulnerable slopes
• Rebuild embankments
• Institute warning systems
• Vegetation management
• Adapt Rolling Stock
• Catenary maintenance
• Robust control systems
• Redundant power systems

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T1009 is delivering useful outputs for the rail industry. Organisations
which have engaged the most are likely to benefit the most
System of systems approach confirms the importance of
interdependencies and interfaces, some of which lie with
organisations outside of the rail industry
Consensus from other countries and asset managers is that GB railway
is an exemplar and is a leading example of good practice
A number of analogue countries have been identified:
France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Denmark
There are no ‘silver bullets’ that other countries have!
Remaining challenge is how to make the information and research
accessible to all
Summary