North, East, South East, South and South West Asia; asian monsoons and high mountain regions

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
9 August 2021
#ClimateReport #IPCC #IPCCAtlas
Svitlana Krakovska, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
Leading Author Atlas, Interactive Atlas and Technical Summary
Contributing Author to SPM and Chapters 2, 6, 10, 12
9 November 2021, Glasgow
North Asia

Heat extremes have increased while cold extremes have decreased, and
these trends will continue over the coming decades (high confidence).
The fire season will lengthen (medium confidence).
North Asia (WSB, ESB, RFE)
Projected increase in precipitation almost doubles the annual maximum
river discharge with increased flooded area in major Siberian rivers by
mid-21st century (medium confidence).
TX over 35 degree Celsius
GWL 1.5 GWL 4
Fire Weather
River Flood
Heavy Precip & Flood
Permafrost
Heavy snowfall Seasonal snow

Permafrost has thawed, its temperature increased, and seasonal snow
duration and extent decreased while maximal snow depth has increased
over the past 3 to 4 decades (high confidence). It is virtually certain that
permafrost extent and volume will shrink with further global warming.
North Asia (WSB, ESB, RFE)
Figure Atlas.18: Linear trends for the 1980–2015
period based on station data from the World Data
Centre of the Russian Institute for Hydrometeorological
Information (RIHMI-WDC) (Bulygina et al., 2014).
Snowfall change (November to March)
GWL 1.5 GWL 4

9 August 2021
East Asia
Author: Jian Li
LA of IPCC WG1 AR6 Atlas
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Daily precipitation extremes have
increased over parts of the region (high
confidence).
Heavy precipitation will increase in
frequency and intensity (high confidence).
East Asia
Droughts have become more frequent in
much of continental East Asia while arid
Eastern Central Asia has become wetter
(medium confidence). They will become
wetter in the future, especially in summer
and autumn in EAS and spring in ECA.
Heavy precipitation Droughts
–50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Change (%) relative to 1995-2014
1.5ºC 2ºC 4ºC
Maximum 5-day precipitation change
based on CORDEX East Asia
EAS
ECA
Wetting
Drying
Wetting Wetting
Wette
r
Dryer
SPI-6 (SSP5-8.5)
210
0
210
0
2020
2020

Tropical cyclone tracks
likely migrated poleward.
{11.7.1, 12.4.2}
Tropical cyclones
Based on Box 11.4, Figure 2
East Asia
2018 case study
Heat extremes have increased in frequency (high confidence)
and are very likely to become more intense and more frequent.
{11.3.4, 12.4.2, Atlas.5.3.1}
Based on Figure 11.20
• Heatwave
• Heavy rainfall
in Korea and Japan
It is virtually certain that these 2018 concurrent events would not
have occurred without human-
induced global warming. {Box 11.4}
Min et al
(2020)
Kawase et al
(2019)

9 August 2021
Southeast Asia
Author: Thanh Ngo-Duc
LA of IPCC WG1 AR6 Atlas
University of Science and Technology of Ha Noi, Viet Nam.

Temperature Change
Annual
Rainfall Change
DJF
ΔT
(ºC)
rel.
to
1995–2014
Southeast Asia (SEA)
Future warming will be slightly less
than the global average (high
confidence) (TS4.3, Atlas 5.4)
Extreme heat events have
increased in frequency and will
become more intense and more
frequent (high confidence) (TS 4.3,
11.3, 12.4)
Heat and cold
Wet and Dry
Rainfall will increase in northern parts of Southeast Asia and summer rainfall
decrease in areas in the Maritime Continent (medium confidence) (TS4.3, Atlas 5.4)
Extreme precipitation and pluvial flood will become more frequent and more
intensified (medium confidence) (TS4.3, 11.4, 12.4)
Rainfall Change
JJA
Based on Figure Atlas.13

Tropical cyclone (TC)
The TC numbers will decrease, but the frequency of intense TCs will increase
(medium confidence).
Sea-level rise will continue, contributing to
shoreline retreat (high confidence).
Compound impacts of climate change, land
subsidence, and local human activities will
lead to larger flood extent and prolonged
inundation in the Mekong Delta (high
confidence).
Coastal
Shoreline position change
2100 RCP8.5 vs. 2010
Based on Figure 12.6
Fewer but more extreme TCs have affected the region.
(TS.4.3, 11.7, 12.4)
(TS.4.3, 12.4)

9 August 2021
South Asia
Author: Annalisa Cherchi
LA of IPCC WG1 AR6 Ch. 8
National Research Center, Institute of the Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
(CNR-ISAC), Bologna, Italy

South Asia
(SAS)
• Both annual and summer monsoon
precipitation will increase during the 21st
century, with enhanced interannual variability
Figure from IA
Based on Fig. 12.6
ΔT
(ºC)
rel.
to
1995–2014
Based on Fig. Atlas.17
Temperature
change (annual
mean)
Rainfall change
(summer mean)
• Regional mean sea level will continue to rise
Shoreline position change
2100 RCP8.5 vs. 2010

• Heatwaves and
humid heat stress
will be more intense
and frequent during
the 21st century
South Asia
(SAS) Climatic Impact Drivers1 projected changes (high confidence):
Increase of mean air temperature, extreme heat*, mean precipitation, heavy
precipitation and pluvial floods, relative sea level, marine heatwaves
Decrease of cold spell*, frost
1In bold when same change occurred in the past, in red when opposite, * with high confidence of attribution
Figure from IA
Based on Fig. 11.4
Past changes of
extremes2:
Increase of extreme heat
and of extreme precipitation,
decrease of extreme cold
2In bold high confidence of attribution to
human influence & of observed trends; in
italic medium confidence of past trends and
low confidence of attribution

9 August 2021
Southwest Asia
(West Central Asia & Arabian Peninsula)
Author: Mohammad Rahimi
LA of IPCC WG1 AR6 Ch. 12
Semnan University, Iran

long-term warming trend since the middle of the 20th century (high confidence). Projections show
continued warming in the future (high confidence).
Extreme heat events are very likely to become more intense and/or more frequent.
Cold spells intensity and frequency, as well as the number of frost days, have been decreasing
(high confidence).Cold spells will have a decreasing frequency in all future scenarios(very likely ).
Changing snowmelt regime may contribute to a shift of spring floods timing (medium confidence).
Decline in glacier mass and area in the coming century (high confidence).
Aridity increased in recent decades (medium confidence).
Observed increases to agricultural and ecological droughts.
Agricultural and ecological drought increases are projected.
 Emergence of higher fire risk
in the first part of the 21st century (medium confidence).
West Central Asia

long-term warming trend since the middle of the 20th century (high confidence). Projections show
continued warming in the future (high confidence).
Extreme heat events are very likely to become more intense and/or more frequent.
Cold spells intensity and frequency, as well as the number of frost days, have been decreasing
(high confidence).Cold spells will have a decreasing frequency in all future scenarios(very likely ).
Heavy precipitation is very likely to become more
intense and frequent in all areas of Asia
except in ARP (medium confidence)
 Relative sea level rise in the oceans around (very likely).
 More flooding in delta areas in ARP (high confidence).
 Retreats of shoreline (high confidence).
Arabian Peninsula

9 August 2021
Asian Monsoons
Author: Krishnan Raghavan
CLA of IPCC WG1 AR6 Ch. 8
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)

Figure AV.1 - Annex V: Monsoons
Box TS.13: Monsoons
• Global land monsoon precipitation
decreased from the 1950s to the 1980s,
partly due to anthropogenic aerosols, but has
increased since then in response to GHG
forcing and large-scale multi-decadal
variability (medium confidence).
• During the 21st century, global land
monsoon precipitation is projected to
increase in response to GHG warming in all
time horizons and scenarios (high confidence).
• In the long-term (2081-2100), global
monsoon rainfall change will feature a robust
north-south asymmetry characterized by a
greater increase in the Northern Hemisphere
than in the Southern Hemisphere and an
east-west asymmetry characterized by
enhanced Asian-African monsoons and a
weakened North American monsoon (medium
confidence).
Global (black contour) and regional monsoons (color shaded) domains. The global
monsoon (GM) is defined as the area with local summer-minus-winter
precipitation rate exceeding 2.5 mm day–1.

• The South and Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation decreased since the mid-20th century
(high confidence), the dominant cause being anthropogenic aerosol forcing.
• The dry-north and wet-south pattern of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation change
results from the combined effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols (high confidence).
• In the near-term (2021-2040), South and Southeast Asian monsoon and East Asian summer
monsoon precipitation will be dominated by the effects of internal variability (medium
confidence), but will increase in the long-term (2081-2100) (medium confidence).
Asian Monsoons

Figure 8.11
Trend and change in monsoon precipitation (1951-2014) for
South & Southeast Asia (SAsiaM) and East Asia (EAsiaM)

Figure 8.22
CMIP6 projected changes in monsoon precipitation for
South and Southeast Asia (SAsiaM) and East Asia (EAsiaM)
Percentage
change
in
precipitation
Near-term: 2021-2040
Mid-term : 2041-2060
Long-term : 2081-2100

• Average and heavy precipitation will increase over much
of Asia (high to medium confidence).
• South Asia: Both annual and summer monsoon
precipitation will increase during the 21st century, with
enhanced inter-annual variability (medium confidence).
• Southeast Asia: There has been a significant increase in
the amount of precipitation and its extremes during La
Niña episodes since the mid-20th century, especially in the
winter monsoon period (high confidence).
• The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has significant
influence on the weather and climate over East Asia and
plays an important role in regulating winter temperatures
including strong cold events and snowstorms.
Precipitation
Multi-model mean precipitation percentage change for SSP2-4.5
(2081-2100 vs 1995-2014)
Figure 8.18

9 August 2021
High Mountain Asia
Author: Panmao Zhai
Co-Chair of IPCC WG1 AR6
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China

High Mountain Asia • Third Pole
• Asia water tower
• large population
and unique
ecosystem
• Strong influence
on Asian weather
and climate

Observed regional hazards in the high mountains, including the
High Mt. Asia
• Glacier, snow and permafrost decline has altered the
frequency, magnitude and location of most related
natural hazards such as landslides, avalanches, flooding,
ground subsidence and wildfires
From SROCC

Warming has occurred in the Himalayas, the Swiss Alps, and the central Andes, and has increased
with altitude.
Such elevation-dependent warming could lead to faster changes in the snowline, the glacier
equilibrium-line altitude and the snow/rain transition height (high confidence).
The freezing level height in mountain areas is projected to rise and will alter snow and ice conditions
(high confidence).
Heat and cold
Figure TS.10: (Left)
Zonal cross-section
of 2002-2019
temperature trends in
the upper
troposphere.
(Middle) Change in
annual and zonal
mean atmospheric
temperature (°C) in
2081-2100 in SSP1-
2.6 relative to 1995-
2014. (Right) The
same in SSP3-7.0.

 High Mountain Asia

Snow cover has reduced since the early 21st century,
and glaciers have thinned, retreated, and lost mass
since the 1970s (high confidence), although the
Karakoram glaciers have either slightly gained mass or
are in an approximately balanced state (medium
confidence).
Snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease
during the 21st century, snowline elevations will rise
(high confidence) and glacier mass is likely to decline
with greater mass loss in higher greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios.
Snow and glacier

IPCC WGI - Fact sheet – Asia
Observed increasing trend in river flooding
1.Precipitation decreased over the central-
eastern Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) but
increased in the western HKH and the
other parts. A general wetting across
the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya
is projected, with increases in heavy
precipitation in the 21st century.
2. Rising temperature and precipitation
can increase the occurrence of glacial
lake outburst floods and landslides over
moraine-dammed lakes (high confidence).
Tibetan
Plateau
Warm-Wet Related

9 August 2021
#ClimateReport #IPCC
@IPCC
@IPCC_CH
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IPCC: www.ipcc.ch
Interactive Atlas: interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch
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