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0.800
0.900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1.500
1.600
US$ / EURO
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
Percentage
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(Percentage of Labour Force)
US / UK
US UK
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(% of Labour Force)
Japan / Germany
JAPAN GERMANY
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Percentage
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
YEARLY %
US / UK
US UK
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Percentage
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
YEARLY %
JAPAN / GERMANY
JAPAN
GERMANY
300
800
1300
1800
2300
Nov-79
Nov-81
Nov-83
Nov-85
Nov-87
Nov-89
Nov-91
Nov-93
Nov-95
Nov-97
Nov-99
Nov-01
Nov-03
Nov-05
Nov-07
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-13
Nov-15
US Housing Starts (thousands of units)
2015 2016 2017
World 3.1 3.2 3.5
US 2.4 2.4 2.5
Japan 0.5 0.5 -0.1
EURO 1.68 1.5 1.6
RSA* 1.3 0.4 1.3
China 6.9 6.5 6.2
India 7.3 7.5 7.5
Forecast Growth in real GDP
Source: BER * and IMF World Economic Outlook April 2016
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Percentage CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
US / UK
(Annual Percentage Change)
US UK
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Percentage
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Germany / Japan
(Annual PercentageChange)
JAPAN GERMANY
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Percentage
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CHINA / INDIA
(Annual % change)
China India
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4 Dec-68
Dec-71
Dec-74
Dec-77
Dec-80
Dec-83
Dec-86
Dec-89
Dec-92
Dec-95
Dec-98
Dec-01
Dec-04
Dec-07
Dec-10
Dec-13
%
US Budget Surplus/Deficit as % of Nominal GDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Percentage
6 MONTH LIBOR RATE
Yearly %
US / UK
US UK
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Percentage
6 MONTH LIBOR RATE
Yearly %
JAPAN / EURO
JAPAN EURO
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
Percentage
10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD
US / UK
US
UK
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percentage
10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD
Japan / Germany
JAPAN
GERMANY
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-75
Jan-77
Jan-79
Jan-81
Jan-83
Jan-85
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
US 10 Year Bond Yield vs. Inflation
Rate (%)
US Bond yield US Inflation
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Baltic Dry Index
100
600
1100
1600
2100
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Gold and Platinum Price ($/oz)
Gold Platinum
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
OIL BRENT SPOT
$/BARREL
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
250
255
260
265
270
275
280
ALL COMMODITIES $ INDEX
95=100 - ECONOMIST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Maize and Wheat Prices (R/MT)
WHITE MAIZE WHEAT
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
SOYBEANS PIT CBOT (5000 BU MIN
CENTS/BUSHEL)
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
Jul-94
Jul-96
Jul-98
Jul-00
Jul-02
Jul-04
Jul-06
Jul-08
Jul-10
Jul-12
Jul-14
Jul-16
$/Tonne
White Sugar LIFFE ($/Tonne)- Near Future
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
Dec-88
Dec-90
Dec-92
Dec-94
Dec-96
Dec-98
Dec-00
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
$/100pounds
Rice Futuresin Chicago ($/100 pounds)
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
185
205
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Iron Ore Spot 62% (US$/tonne)
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Coal Richards Bay ($/tonne)
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Manganese Ore 37% FOB Port
Elizabeth ($/dmtu)
Germany 80.997
Japan 127.103
UK 63.743
USA 318.892
Australia 22.508
India 1236.345
China 1355.693
South Africa 54.00
World Population (In Millions)
3.5
5.5
7.5
9.5
11.5
13.5
15.5
SA RAND/US$
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
ExchangeRate
EURO / RAND
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2001/08/19
2002/02/19
2002/08/19
2003/02/19
2003/08/19
2004/02/19
2004/08/19
2005/02/19
2005/08/19
2006/02/19
2006/08/19
2007/02/19
2007/08/19
2008/02/19
2008/08/19
2009/02/19
2009/08/19
2010/02/19
2010/08/19
2011/02/19
2011/08/19
2012/02/19
2012/08/19
2013/02/19
2013/08/19
2014/02/19
2014/08/19
2015/02/19
2015/08/19
2016/02/19
2016/08/19
AUD/ZAR
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
3550
4050
4550
5050
5550
6050
6550
7050
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
FTSE 100 Index and German Dax
Index
FT100 (left axis) Dax (right axis)
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
6500
11500
16500
21500
26500
31500
36500
41500
46500
51500 Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
JSE All Share Index and Dow Jones Industrial
Index
All Share (left axis) Dow (right axis)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Percentage SOUTH AFRICAN GDP AT CONSTANT
2010 PRICES
2016 = BER forecast
-250000
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
RBillion
SOUTH AFRICAN CURRENT ACCOUNT
(Bln R)
Seasonally Adjusted and Annualised
-125000
-100000
-75000
-50000
-25000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
SOUTH AFRICAN NET CAPITAL
MOVEMENT
Portfolio Other FDI
RMillion
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Rmillion
GOLD & FOREIGN RESERVES
Foreign Reserves Gold Reserves
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
EMPLOYMENT NON-AGRICULTURAL
SA 2006 = 100
-1.9
-3.8
-7.3
-5.7
-4.7
-4.5 -4.6
-3.8
-2.3
-2.0 -1.9
-1.4
-1.1
-2.2
-1.4
-0.3
1.0 1.0
-1.1
-6.5
-4.3
-3.7
-4.3
-3.9 -3.9 -3.9
-3.2
-2.8
-2.4
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
%
Government Finance
Surplus / Deficit as % of GDP
2015/16 - 2018/19: National Treasury forecast
-9.0
-4.0
1.0
6.0
11.0
16.0
21.0
Percentage
SOUTH AFRICAN INFLATION
PPI - PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
PERCENTAGE
SOUTH AFRICAN CPI
HEADLINE CPI
4
9
14
19
24
Percentage
SOUTH AFRICAN INTEREST RATES
R 186 Prime rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
31/01/90
1990/07/31
1991/01/31
1991/07/31
1992/01/31
1992/07/31
1993/01/29
1993/07/30
1994/01/31
1994/07/29
1995/01/31
1995/07/31
1996/01/31
1996/07/31
1997/01/31
1997/07/31
1998/01/30
1998/07/31
1999/01/29
1999/07/30
2000/01/31
2000/07/31
2001/01/31
2001/07/31
2002/01/31
2002/07/31
2003/01/31
2003/07/31
2004/01/30
2004/07/31
2005/01/31
2005/07/31
2006/01/31
2006/07/31
2007/01/31
2007/07/31
2008/01/31
2008/07/31
2009/01/31
2009/07/31
2010/01/31
2010/07/31
2011/01/31
2011/07/31
2012/01/31
2012/07/31
2013/01/31
2013/07/31
2014/01/31
2014/07/31
2015/01/31
2015/07/31
2016/01/31
%
SA vs US interest rates
US 6m Libor
SA 6m Jibar
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-69
Mar-72
Mar-75
Mar-78
Mar-81
Mar-84
Mar-87
Mar-90
Mar-93
Mar-96
Mar-99
Mar-02
Mar-05
Mar-08
Mar-11
Mar-14
%
Household Debt to Disposable Income %
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mar-94
Mar-95
Mar-96
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Growth%
Private Consumption Expenditure
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Feb-96
Feb-97
Feb-98
Feb-99
Feb-00
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
%
Growth in M3 vs Private Sector Credit Extension
PSCE
M3

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