The document provides an overview and analysis of historical trends in global energy demand and prices over the past several decades. It divides this history into 5 waves: 1) Deregulation from 1983-2004, 2) China's growth from 2004-2008, 3) Financial collapse and fracking from 2008-2009, 4) Decarbonization, digitization and distributed generation from 2009-2013, and 5) Uncertainty from 2013-2015. For each wave it analyzes how oil and natural gas prices changed and their price ratio, showing how factors like new technologies and economic/political events impacted supply and demand dynamics in the energy market over time.
There has been 5 historical waves that have defined where we are today for energy prices .... there are three more energy waves coming that will impact the lives of Albertan's. This presentation gives a brief primer on energy, walks through the 5 historical waves and the structural changes that happened within each wave and maps out a forecast of what the next few waves may look like and how to capture value in each wave.
Keynote: Navigating Turbulent Waters - An Assessment & Outlook for the O&G In...WorkforceNEXT
The document provides an assessment and outlook of the oil and gas industry given the recent downturn in oil prices. It notes that oil markets were imbalanced by just 1-2% but prices fell over 60%. The US drilling industry is experiencing the worst downturn ever with over 100,000 layoffs reported across the industry so far. The recovery is expected to be U-shaped rather than V-shaped as the supply-driven collapse will require a supply-side solution. Key trends discussed include ongoing workforce reductions, international markets holding up better than the US, and companies with high debt levels facing financial hardship.
Energy Industry Report: Energy Perspectives - January 2015Duff & Phelps
This edition of Energy Perspectives provides a recap of industry activity in 2014. Despite fairly consistent falling crude oil prices over the past six months, the industry experienced a record number of oilfield (OFS) M&A transactions for the fourth year in a row, achieving 329 announced transactions in 2014. For more detail on recent OFS trends, public comps and deal activity, read the report.
This document summarizes an oil and gas industry day presentation by the Utah State Tax Commission. It includes forecasts for oil and natural gas prices in Utah's Paradox and Uinta basins from 2013 to 2024. Production, drilling, supply, and storage data for Utah's natural gas industry in 2013 is also presented, along with factors influencing domestic energy consumption and prices such as weather and economic conditions. Projections suggest oil and gas production in Utah will increase over the next few years while prices remain stable.
Leading Global Infrastructure Advisor Specializing in Maritime,Transportation...KatthyLucas2100
The document summarizes the state of the global economy. It notes that while the worst point of the economic cycle has passed, the recovery is still fragile. Exports are helping the US economy but domestic consumption must also grow. The outlook is positive for most regions, though Japan's recovery may be slower in the near term. Commodity prices indicate underlying demand pressures. The US trade deficit remains large due to imports, though export opportunities exist in bulk and specialized goods. Population aging will impact global consumption patterns. China's currency policies pose economic risks. In summary, the recovery is ongoing but not complete, and both challenges and opportunities remain.
Oil Physical and Financial Markets: Economics, Engineering, Pricing, And Regu...Kevin Kane
The document provides an overview of oil physical and financial markets, including:
I. Oil physical fundamentals including production, reserves, crude quality, recovery methods, and investment trends.
II. Oil futures markets for price discovery, hedging risk, and the roles of the NYMEX, ICE, and CFTC regulations.
III. Derivatives markets including futures, OTC derivatives, and the functions of clearing houses in limiting exposure.
The document summarizes the shale revolution in the United States and its impacts. It discusses how hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked oil and gas from shale formations with low permeability. This has led to the US becoming a major producer of shale gas and shale oil. However, the document notes that total US natural gas and crude oil production has peaked, as additions from new shale wells no longer compensate for declines in conventional production. It concludes that while the shale revolution is a reality in the US, it remains a myth elsewhere due to the need for higher prices to be profitable. The US also still imports a significant portion of its oil, so energy independence claims are still more myth than reality.
There has been 5 historical waves that have defined where we are today for energy prices .... there are three more energy waves coming that will impact the lives of Albertan's. This presentation gives a brief primer on energy, walks through the 5 historical waves and the structural changes that happened within each wave and maps out a forecast of what the next few waves may look like and how to capture value in each wave.
Keynote: Navigating Turbulent Waters - An Assessment & Outlook for the O&G In...WorkforceNEXT
The document provides an assessment and outlook of the oil and gas industry given the recent downturn in oil prices. It notes that oil markets were imbalanced by just 1-2% but prices fell over 60%. The US drilling industry is experiencing the worst downturn ever with over 100,000 layoffs reported across the industry so far. The recovery is expected to be U-shaped rather than V-shaped as the supply-driven collapse will require a supply-side solution. Key trends discussed include ongoing workforce reductions, international markets holding up better than the US, and companies with high debt levels facing financial hardship.
Energy Industry Report: Energy Perspectives - January 2015Duff & Phelps
This edition of Energy Perspectives provides a recap of industry activity in 2014. Despite fairly consistent falling crude oil prices over the past six months, the industry experienced a record number of oilfield (OFS) M&A transactions for the fourth year in a row, achieving 329 announced transactions in 2014. For more detail on recent OFS trends, public comps and deal activity, read the report.
This document summarizes an oil and gas industry day presentation by the Utah State Tax Commission. It includes forecasts for oil and natural gas prices in Utah's Paradox and Uinta basins from 2013 to 2024. Production, drilling, supply, and storage data for Utah's natural gas industry in 2013 is also presented, along with factors influencing domestic energy consumption and prices such as weather and economic conditions. Projections suggest oil and gas production in Utah will increase over the next few years while prices remain stable.
Leading Global Infrastructure Advisor Specializing in Maritime,Transportation...KatthyLucas2100
The document summarizes the state of the global economy. It notes that while the worst point of the economic cycle has passed, the recovery is still fragile. Exports are helping the US economy but domestic consumption must also grow. The outlook is positive for most regions, though Japan's recovery may be slower in the near term. Commodity prices indicate underlying demand pressures. The US trade deficit remains large due to imports, though export opportunities exist in bulk and specialized goods. Population aging will impact global consumption patterns. China's currency policies pose economic risks. In summary, the recovery is ongoing but not complete, and both challenges and opportunities remain.
Oil Physical and Financial Markets: Economics, Engineering, Pricing, And Regu...Kevin Kane
The document provides an overview of oil physical and financial markets, including:
I. Oil physical fundamentals including production, reserves, crude quality, recovery methods, and investment trends.
II. Oil futures markets for price discovery, hedging risk, and the roles of the NYMEX, ICE, and CFTC regulations.
III. Derivatives markets including futures, OTC derivatives, and the functions of clearing houses in limiting exposure.
The document summarizes the shale revolution in the United States and its impacts. It discusses how hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked oil and gas from shale formations with low permeability. This has led to the US becoming a major producer of shale gas and shale oil. However, the document notes that total US natural gas and crude oil production has peaked, as additions from new shale wells no longer compensate for declines in conventional production. It concludes that while the shale revolution is a reality in the US, it remains a myth elsewhere due to the need for higher prices to be profitable. The US also still imports a significant portion of its oil, so energy independence claims are still more myth than reality.
The document provides an overview of trends in the US economy as depicted in various charts and graphs. It shows that the US economy is experiencing stable GDP growth, normalization of interest rates, growth in housing and mortgage lending, stable core inflation, expanding employment, and ongoing correction in the oil industry. Various charts track metrics like GDP growth, corporate profits, interest rates, housing starts, consumer debt levels, inflation rates, and industrial production over time.
This document summarizes Tom Kloza's presentation at the National Ethanol Conference on February 16, 2016. Some key points:
1) Kloza reviewed past predictions by energy analysts that underestimated the decline in oil prices and overstated price floors.
2) Current forecasts for WTI and Brent crude prices in 2016 vary widely, averaging around $41-42/barrel according to Kloza.
3) North American crude prices have diverged significantly, with Canadian and some US grades trading at deep discounts to global benchmarks.
4) Just-in-time inventory practices have left fuel markets vulnerable to short-term price swings due to planned and unplanned refinery out
The document analyzes changes in the price of WTI crude oil since summer 2014 and how this affected US exports of LPG. It finds that the price of WTI crude fell significantly from 2014 to early 2015 due to factors like increased US supply from shale production and weak global demand. This lower crude price made US LPG exports much more competitive internationally. US LPG exports from the Gulf coast dramatically increased over this period as infrastructure expanded to accommodate more exports. Going forward, US LPG will increasingly compete against other international LPG suppliers as well as alternative fuels.
PLG Consulting Appalachian logistics League May 5, 2015PLG Consulting
PLG president, Taylor Robinson spoke on May 5, 2015 at the 65th annual Appalachian Logistics League meeting. Mr. Robinson presentedThe North American Energy Revolution: The Implication for Logistics. The meeting was an opportunity for members to network and discuss the ever changing industry of Supply Chain and Logistics with a primary focus on the impacts to the region.
This document discusses oil and gas development in North Dakota. It provides an overview of the Bakken and Three Forks formations, noting they contain an estimated 149 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Production has increased North Dakota's ranking from 9th to 4th in the US for oil production. The document also reviews North Dakota's oil and gas tax policies and their economic impacts, and proposes some desired changes to make the state more competitive.
Bassam Fattouh - The Adjustment in the Oil Market: Cyclical or Structural?UNU-WIDER
The document summarizes recent trends in the global oil market since prices fell sharply in 2014. It discusses the supply-demand imbalance that led to rising stockpiles. While lower prices were expected to induce production cuts from non-OPEC suppliers and demand increases, adjustments have occurred more slowly than anticipated. Capital expenditures have declined significantly but many major projects approved during high prices are still coming online. Decline rates are accelerating in some mature areas with less investment. The investment and production cycle for US shale is much different than conventional oil, with shorter timelines between investment and production/decline.
Steven Kopits presented an analysis of oil supply and demand forecasting models. Traditional models are demand-driven and assume that GDP growth determines oil demand growth. However, Kopits argues for a supply-constrained view where oil supply growth limits GDP growth. He shows that despite $4 trillion spent, legacy oil production has declined while unconventionals prevented larger drops. Non-OECD demand could be 60 mbpd by 2030 but forecast growth is just 0.8% due to constrained supply assumptions. Kopits concludes traditional models overestimate future supply.
Natural Gas brief description and pricing trend.
it a competitive, upstream-driven business?
Is it an economies of scale, monopoly midstream-downstream business that affects the public interest?
How much of direct end use and conversion is competitive?
If the goal is to build the “natural gas factory,” then policy/regulatory approaches need to facilitate value chain development – “commercial frameworks.”
Market
Transparency of price signals
Price volatility
Role of pipeline affiliates
Demand response
Problems in retail competition
Supply security and capital to drill
Policy/Regulatory
Encourage market solution to price information
No action (but debate)
FERC Order 637
Under discussion
Georgia re-bundling
Producer incentives and LNG
DOE regulates natural gas imports/exports and helps to coordinate across federal agencies that have regulatory and policy authority for LNG
FERC is responsible for permitting new onshore LNG regasification terminals and ensuring safety at these facilities
DOT regulates offshore terminals and LNG tanker operations
Coast Guard is responsible for assuring the safety of all marine operations at all LNG terminals and on tankers in U.S. coastal waters
EPA and state environmental agencies establish air and water standards with which the LNG industry must comply
Others include:
Fish and Wildlife Service
Army Corps of Engineers for coastal facilities and wetlands
MMS for offshore activities
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
State, county and local (municipal) agencies play roles to ensure safe and environmentally sound construction and operation of LNG industry facilities. Local police and fire departments.
Natural gas obtained from boreholes in the form of free gas, as well as associated gas, primarily consists of hydrocarbons which include Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), gas imported through transnational pipelines, Coal Bed Methane (CBM) obtained from coal seams, etc. Energy demands have increased significantly with the development of civilization. Further, increased energy demands have augmented the reliance on fossil fuels like Coal and Crude Oil, especially that of developing countries. Also, increased dependence on a single source of energy poses a significant threat to the energy security and sustainability of the nation (Delgado, 2011). India, like other countries, continues to suffer from the consequences of the lockdowns and voluntary restrictions to combat the global pandemic-first with the nationwide lockdown of 2020 during the first wave of COVID-19 and now again with the regional lockdowns and self-imposed restrictions to battle the second wave of the virus. This has introduced a big factor of uncertainty in predictions of energy demand and annual GDP growth initially predicted till the period of 2040. Even then, the dependence of energy demand on electricity is expected to grow at a lower rate. In the State Policies Scenario, owing to the increasing rate of elect
Carbon Bubble - Making Sense of a "Fossil Market"Timon Henze
The document discusses the concept of a "carbon bubble" where fossil fuel companies' assets are overvalued since they assume all reserves will be burned, contradicting the goal of limiting global warming to 2C. This poses major financial risks. It advocates strategies like divestment campaigns and removing fossil fuel subsidies to exert political and market pressure for climate action. If taken advantage of now, low oil prices and renewable energy advances provide an opportunity to rationalize energy policies and transition to a cheaper, greener system.
Generation Trends: What are the Impacts on Transmission? ScottMadden, Inc.
Todd Williams, partner at ScottMadden, recently presented “Generation Trends – What Are the Impacts on Transmission?” at the fourth annual Transmission Summit West. This presentation focused on how natural gas prices, carbon legislation, and renewable generation sources will drive the need for transmission infrastructure investment.
"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality?" by Jean Laherrère - ASPO FranceNicolas Meilhan
The term Peak Oil was created in 2000 after Jean Laherrère and Colin Campbell wrote an article in 1998 in Scientific American which title was "the End of Cheap Oil".
This paper was ignored until 2005 when oil price reached 50$/b anf fully accepted in 2008 when 140 $/b was reached. With the burst of shale oil, many papers have been published on the "Peak Oil Myth" and the fact that the USA would become energy independent thanks to the shale oil & gas revolution.
However the oil production peaked in many countries and the end of cheap oil is more than ever a reality that will strongly impact our economies. New oil projects with higher extraction costs require $100/b+ oil price to be profitable while oil demand (and GDP) contracts when oil price surpasses $120/b !
This document compares the costs of propane and heating oil as fuels for home heating. It finds that while propane prices have recently been lower than heating oil prices on a per-gallon basis, propane is more volatile and provides less energy per unit than oil. The price advantage of propane is unlikely to continue long-term as production increases are expected to stabilize prices. Due to transportation and storage issues, propane remains more expensive in New England on an energy equivalent basis compared to heating oil. The document concludes it may not be rational for homeowners to switch from oil to propane given the increased risks and volatility when alternative fuels like wood are available.
Episode 66 : Renewable Energy Technologies
Currently, this is the largest source of renewable energy.
However, much of this is low-technology uses in developing countries. Presumably usage of these fuels will fall as countries grow.
Other fuels include things such as ethanol.
Is there enough farmland to grow the needed feedstocks as well as supplying necessary food supply?
Recent concerns over corn prices is an example here
Used for 16% of world electricity production.
Does not require technological breakthroughs.
However, political acceptance is an issue.
Small hydro is cost competitive
Costs of wind fell by a factor of four between 1981-1999
Wind is now competitive in favorable locations.
Now about 5-8 cents/kWh
Competitive with traditional fuels with a $25/ton CO2 tax
Study shows wind is competitive at $38/ton CO2 near Chicago, and could be situated further away with a price of $76/ton CO2.
Distance from center decreases intermittency, but increases transmission losses.
Because wind is intermittent, storage is an issue.
For instance, excess power could be used to compress air in a reservoir as storage.
Currently feasible at about $93/ton
Denmark and Norway work in tandem to provide power.
When winds are favorable, Denmark exports wind energy to Norway. When not, Norway exports hydropower to Denmark.
SAJJAD KHUDHUR ABBAS
Ceo , Founder & Head of SHacademy
Chemical Engineering , Al-Muthanna University, Iraq
Oil & Gas Safety and Health Professional – OSHACADEMY
Trainer of Trainers (TOT) - Canadian Center of Human
Development
The document discusses several sustainability issues facing the mining industry, including declining ore grades, energy sources and reserves, water scarcity, and decreasing productivity. It presents technical solutions but notes the need for a systemic approach given the interconnected nature of these problems in the industrial sector. Charts show decreasing ore grades over time, rising energy consumption in mining, and peaking of global production for oil, gas, coal and other resources. The document argues that the current business model is not sustainable given these finite resource and environmental constraints.
U.S. Energy Information Administration _ Oil and Gas Sept 2014Dmitry Tseitlin
This document summarizes a presentation given by Adam Sieminski, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), to the North Dakota Petroleum Council on September 24, 2014. The presentation provides an overview of current and projected trends in U.S. and North American energy supply and demand, including slow growth in overall U.S. energy use, increased U.S. oil and natural gas production from shale resources, the U.S. becoming a net exporter of petroleum products, and projected increases in both U.S. oil and natural gas production through 2040 under reference and high resource cases.
This document contains over 100 charts and graphs related to macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates, commodity prices, stock market indices, GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, and other economic data for various countries including the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, and South Africa. The charts show trends over time ranging from the 1960s to recent years.
IMPACT Silver is a pure silver zinc producer with over $260 million in revenue since 2008 and a large 100% owned 210km Mexico land package - 2024 catalysts includes new 14% grade zinc Plomosas mine and 20,000m of fully funded exploration drilling.
At Techbox Square, in Singapore, we're not just creative web designers and developers, we're the driving force behind your brand identity. Contact us today.
The document provides an overview of trends in the US economy as depicted in various charts and graphs. It shows that the US economy is experiencing stable GDP growth, normalization of interest rates, growth in housing and mortgage lending, stable core inflation, expanding employment, and ongoing correction in the oil industry. Various charts track metrics like GDP growth, corporate profits, interest rates, housing starts, consumer debt levels, inflation rates, and industrial production over time.
This document summarizes Tom Kloza's presentation at the National Ethanol Conference on February 16, 2016. Some key points:
1) Kloza reviewed past predictions by energy analysts that underestimated the decline in oil prices and overstated price floors.
2) Current forecasts for WTI and Brent crude prices in 2016 vary widely, averaging around $41-42/barrel according to Kloza.
3) North American crude prices have diverged significantly, with Canadian and some US grades trading at deep discounts to global benchmarks.
4) Just-in-time inventory practices have left fuel markets vulnerable to short-term price swings due to planned and unplanned refinery out
The document analyzes changes in the price of WTI crude oil since summer 2014 and how this affected US exports of LPG. It finds that the price of WTI crude fell significantly from 2014 to early 2015 due to factors like increased US supply from shale production and weak global demand. This lower crude price made US LPG exports much more competitive internationally. US LPG exports from the Gulf coast dramatically increased over this period as infrastructure expanded to accommodate more exports. Going forward, US LPG will increasingly compete against other international LPG suppliers as well as alternative fuels.
PLG Consulting Appalachian logistics League May 5, 2015PLG Consulting
PLG president, Taylor Robinson spoke on May 5, 2015 at the 65th annual Appalachian Logistics League meeting. Mr. Robinson presentedThe North American Energy Revolution: The Implication for Logistics. The meeting was an opportunity for members to network and discuss the ever changing industry of Supply Chain and Logistics with a primary focus on the impacts to the region.
This document discusses oil and gas development in North Dakota. It provides an overview of the Bakken and Three Forks formations, noting they contain an estimated 149 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Production has increased North Dakota's ranking from 9th to 4th in the US for oil production. The document also reviews North Dakota's oil and gas tax policies and their economic impacts, and proposes some desired changes to make the state more competitive.
Bassam Fattouh - The Adjustment in the Oil Market: Cyclical or Structural?UNU-WIDER
The document summarizes recent trends in the global oil market since prices fell sharply in 2014. It discusses the supply-demand imbalance that led to rising stockpiles. While lower prices were expected to induce production cuts from non-OPEC suppliers and demand increases, adjustments have occurred more slowly than anticipated. Capital expenditures have declined significantly but many major projects approved during high prices are still coming online. Decline rates are accelerating in some mature areas with less investment. The investment and production cycle for US shale is much different than conventional oil, with shorter timelines between investment and production/decline.
Steven Kopits presented an analysis of oil supply and demand forecasting models. Traditional models are demand-driven and assume that GDP growth determines oil demand growth. However, Kopits argues for a supply-constrained view where oil supply growth limits GDP growth. He shows that despite $4 trillion spent, legacy oil production has declined while unconventionals prevented larger drops. Non-OECD demand could be 60 mbpd by 2030 but forecast growth is just 0.8% due to constrained supply assumptions. Kopits concludes traditional models overestimate future supply.
Natural Gas brief description and pricing trend.
it a competitive, upstream-driven business?
Is it an economies of scale, monopoly midstream-downstream business that affects the public interest?
How much of direct end use and conversion is competitive?
If the goal is to build the “natural gas factory,” then policy/regulatory approaches need to facilitate value chain development – “commercial frameworks.”
Market
Transparency of price signals
Price volatility
Role of pipeline affiliates
Demand response
Problems in retail competition
Supply security and capital to drill
Policy/Regulatory
Encourage market solution to price information
No action (but debate)
FERC Order 637
Under discussion
Georgia re-bundling
Producer incentives and LNG
DOE regulates natural gas imports/exports and helps to coordinate across federal agencies that have regulatory and policy authority for LNG
FERC is responsible for permitting new onshore LNG regasification terminals and ensuring safety at these facilities
DOT regulates offshore terminals and LNG tanker operations
Coast Guard is responsible for assuring the safety of all marine operations at all LNG terminals and on tankers in U.S. coastal waters
EPA and state environmental agencies establish air and water standards with which the LNG industry must comply
Others include:
Fish and Wildlife Service
Army Corps of Engineers for coastal facilities and wetlands
MMS for offshore activities
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
State, county and local (municipal) agencies play roles to ensure safe and environmentally sound construction and operation of LNG industry facilities. Local police and fire departments.
Natural gas obtained from boreholes in the form of free gas, as well as associated gas, primarily consists of hydrocarbons which include Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), gas imported through transnational pipelines, Coal Bed Methane (CBM) obtained from coal seams, etc. Energy demands have increased significantly with the development of civilization. Further, increased energy demands have augmented the reliance on fossil fuels like Coal and Crude Oil, especially that of developing countries. Also, increased dependence on a single source of energy poses a significant threat to the energy security and sustainability of the nation (Delgado, 2011). India, like other countries, continues to suffer from the consequences of the lockdowns and voluntary restrictions to combat the global pandemic-first with the nationwide lockdown of 2020 during the first wave of COVID-19 and now again with the regional lockdowns and self-imposed restrictions to battle the second wave of the virus. This has introduced a big factor of uncertainty in predictions of energy demand and annual GDP growth initially predicted till the period of 2040. Even then, the dependence of energy demand on electricity is expected to grow at a lower rate. In the State Policies Scenario, owing to the increasing rate of elect
Carbon Bubble - Making Sense of a "Fossil Market"Timon Henze
The document discusses the concept of a "carbon bubble" where fossil fuel companies' assets are overvalued since they assume all reserves will be burned, contradicting the goal of limiting global warming to 2C. This poses major financial risks. It advocates strategies like divestment campaigns and removing fossil fuel subsidies to exert political and market pressure for climate action. If taken advantage of now, low oil prices and renewable energy advances provide an opportunity to rationalize energy policies and transition to a cheaper, greener system.
Generation Trends: What are the Impacts on Transmission? ScottMadden, Inc.
Todd Williams, partner at ScottMadden, recently presented “Generation Trends – What Are the Impacts on Transmission?” at the fourth annual Transmission Summit West. This presentation focused on how natural gas prices, carbon legislation, and renewable generation sources will drive the need for transmission infrastructure investment.
"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality?" by Jean Laherrère - ASPO FranceNicolas Meilhan
The term Peak Oil was created in 2000 after Jean Laherrère and Colin Campbell wrote an article in 1998 in Scientific American which title was "the End of Cheap Oil".
This paper was ignored until 2005 when oil price reached 50$/b anf fully accepted in 2008 when 140 $/b was reached. With the burst of shale oil, many papers have been published on the "Peak Oil Myth" and the fact that the USA would become energy independent thanks to the shale oil & gas revolution.
However the oil production peaked in many countries and the end of cheap oil is more than ever a reality that will strongly impact our economies. New oil projects with higher extraction costs require $100/b+ oil price to be profitable while oil demand (and GDP) contracts when oil price surpasses $120/b !
This document compares the costs of propane and heating oil as fuels for home heating. It finds that while propane prices have recently been lower than heating oil prices on a per-gallon basis, propane is more volatile and provides less energy per unit than oil. The price advantage of propane is unlikely to continue long-term as production increases are expected to stabilize prices. Due to transportation and storage issues, propane remains more expensive in New England on an energy equivalent basis compared to heating oil. The document concludes it may not be rational for homeowners to switch from oil to propane given the increased risks and volatility when alternative fuels like wood are available.
Episode 66 : Renewable Energy Technologies
Currently, this is the largest source of renewable energy.
However, much of this is low-technology uses in developing countries. Presumably usage of these fuels will fall as countries grow.
Other fuels include things such as ethanol.
Is there enough farmland to grow the needed feedstocks as well as supplying necessary food supply?
Recent concerns over corn prices is an example here
Used for 16% of world electricity production.
Does not require technological breakthroughs.
However, political acceptance is an issue.
Small hydro is cost competitive
Costs of wind fell by a factor of four between 1981-1999
Wind is now competitive in favorable locations.
Now about 5-8 cents/kWh
Competitive with traditional fuels with a $25/ton CO2 tax
Study shows wind is competitive at $38/ton CO2 near Chicago, and could be situated further away with a price of $76/ton CO2.
Distance from center decreases intermittency, but increases transmission losses.
Because wind is intermittent, storage is an issue.
For instance, excess power could be used to compress air in a reservoir as storage.
Currently feasible at about $93/ton
Denmark and Norway work in tandem to provide power.
When winds are favorable, Denmark exports wind energy to Norway. When not, Norway exports hydropower to Denmark.
SAJJAD KHUDHUR ABBAS
Ceo , Founder & Head of SHacademy
Chemical Engineering , Al-Muthanna University, Iraq
Oil & Gas Safety and Health Professional – OSHACADEMY
Trainer of Trainers (TOT) - Canadian Center of Human
Development
The document discusses several sustainability issues facing the mining industry, including declining ore grades, energy sources and reserves, water scarcity, and decreasing productivity. It presents technical solutions but notes the need for a systemic approach given the interconnected nature of these problems in the industrial sector. Charts show decreasing ore grades over time, rising energy consumption in mining, and peaking of global production for oil, gas, coal and other resources. The document argues that the current business model is not sustainable given these finite resource and environmental constraints.
U.S. Energy Information Administration _ Oil and Gas Sept 2014Dmitry Tseitlin
This document summarizes a presentation given by Adam Sieminski, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), to the North Dakota Petroleum Council on September 24, 2014. The presentation provides an overview of current and projected trends in U.S. and North American energy supply and demand, including slow growth in overall U.S. energy use, increased U.S. oil and natural gas production from shale resources, the U.S. becoming a net exporter of petroleum products, and projected increases in both U.S. oil and natural gas production through 2040 under reference and high resource cases.
This document contains over 100 charts and graphs related to macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates, commodity prices, stock market indices, GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, and other economic data for various countries including the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, and South Africa. The charts show trends over time ranging from the 1960s to recent years.
Similar to WTF, OMG, FML - Seeing Value in Chaos (20)
IMPACT Silver is a pure silver zinc producer with over $260 million in revenue since 2008 and a large 100% owned 210km Mexico land package - 2024 catalysts includes new 14% grade zinc Plomosas mine and 20,000m of fully funded exploration drilling.
At Techbox Square, in Singapore, we're not just creative web designers and developers, we're the driving force behind your brand identity. Contact us today.
[To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
This presentation is a curated compilation of PowerPoint diagrams and templates designed to illustrate 20 different digital transformation frameworks and models. These frameworks are based on recent industry trends and best practices, ensuring that the content remains relevant and up-to-date.
Key highlights include Microsoft's Digital Transformation Framework, which focuses on driving innovation and efficiency, and McKinsey's Ten Guiding Principles, which provide strategic insights for successful digital transformation. Additionally, Forrester's framework emphasizes enhancing customer experiences and modernizing IT infrastructure, while IDC's MaturityScape helps assess and develop organizational digital maturity. MIT's framework explores cutting-edge strategies for achieving digital success.
These materials are perfect for enhancing your business or classroom presentations, offering visual aids to supplement your insights. Please note that while comprehensive, these slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be complete for standalone instructional purposes.
Frameworks/Models included:
Microsoft’s Digital Transformation Framework
McKinsey’s Ten Guiding Principles of Digital Transformation
Forrester’s Digital Transformation Framework
IDC’s Digital Transformation MaturityScape
MIT’s Digital Transformation Framework
Gartner’s Digital Transformation Framework
Accenture’s Digital Strategy & Enterprise Frameworks
Deloitte’s Digital Industrial Transformation Framework
Capgemini’s Digital Transformation Framework
PwC’s Digital Transformation Framework
Cisco’s Digital Transformation Framework
Cognizant’s Digital Transformation Framework
DXC Technology’s Digital Transformation Framework
The BCG Strategy Palette
McKinsey’s Digital Transformation Framework
Digital Transformation Compass
Four Levels of Digital Maturity
Design Thinking Framework
Business Model Canvas
Customer Journey Map
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdfthesiliconleaders
In the recent edition, The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024, The Silicon Leaders magazine gladly features Dejan Štancer, President of the Global Chamber of Business Leaders (GCBL), along with other leaders.
Navigating the world of forex trading can be challenging, especially for beginners. To help you make an informed decision, we have comprehensively compared the best forex brokers in India for 2024. This article, reviewed by Top Forex Brokers Review, will cover featured award winners, the best forex brokers, featured offers, the best copy trading platforms, the best forex brokers for beginners, the best MetaTrader brokers, and recently updated reviews. We will focus on FP Markets, Black Bull, EightCap, IC Markets, and Octa.
How to Implement a Real Estate CRM SoftwareSalesTown
To implement a CRM for real estate, set clear goals, choose a CRM with key real estate features, and customize it to your needs. Migrate your data, train your team, and use automation to save time. Monitor performance, ensure data security, and use the CRM to enhance marketing. Regularly check its effectiveness to improve your business.
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1. 1
WTF, OMG & FML
Seeing the value in chaos
January 28th, 2016
Shaun Connell
2. 2
Agenda
• Content
• Energy Primer – World Energy Demand
• A brief lesson in commodity pricing
• Historical price analysis – The First 5 Waves
• Forward price analysis – The Final 3 Waves - How to profit riding each wave
• Q&A
10. 10
A brief lesson in commodity pricing
How is energy priced and why is this important?
11. 11
Calories – Apples vs. Oranges
• Question: You’re on a tight budget and need to eat. Based on the cost per calorie
for the apple and the orange, which fruit should you purchase?
APPLE
100 Calories
$1.00
$0.01/ Calorie
ORANGE
100 Calories
$1.00
$0.01/ Calorie
• Answer: They both cost the same per calorie – you can choose based on what you
think will taste best.
12. 12
Calories – Apples vs. Oranges
• Question: A hurricane hits the coast of Florida and wipes out this years Orange
crop. The price of Oranges rises to $4.00/Orange. You’re still on a tight budget and
starving for food. Which fruit do you choose to purchase?
APPLE
100 Calories
$1.00
$0.04/ Calorie
ORANGE
100 Calories
$4.00
$0.04/ Calorie
• Answer: Obviously, you purchase the apple. Why pay 4 times more per energy
calorie? However, If money was no object and I loved Apples, I may still buy the
apple.
13. 13
Calories – Oil vs. Natural Gas
• Question: You have a car that can fuel switch between oil (gasoline) or natural gas.
Based on the cost per calorie for each fuel, which do you choose to purchase?
Oil
600 Calories
$6.00
$0.01/ Calorie
NatGas
100 Calories
$1.00
$0.01/ Calorie
• Answer: They both cost the same per calorie. You choose whatever you fancy for
the day.
14. 14
Calories – Oil vs. Natural Gas
• Question: War breaks out in the middle east causing a shortage of oil and a price
spike to $24.00 per barrel. Now which fuel do you choose for your car that has the
ability to fuel switch between oil and natural gas?
Oil
600 Calories
$24.00
$0.04/ Calorie
NatGas
100 Calories
$1.00
$0.01/ Calorie
• Answer: Given oil now costs 4 times more per calorie of energy, you choose to
switch to Natural Gas. Friends of yours that have cars that only run on gasoline are
forced to pay 4 times more than you at the pump. Sucks to be them.
18. 18
Wave 1 - Deregulation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
Apr-83
Jan-84
Oct-84
Jul-85
Apr-86
Jan-87
Oct-87
Jul-88
Apr-89
Jan-90
Oct-90
Jul-91
Apr-92
Jan-93
Oct-93
Jul-94
Apr-95
Jan-96
Oct-96
Jul-97
Apr-98
Jan-99
Oct-99
Jul-00
Apr-01
Jan-02
Oct-02
Jul-03
Apr-04
Jan-05
Oct-05
Jul-06
Apr-07
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Historical Pricing - Oil, NatGas and Oil/Gas Ratio
OIL NatGas Oil/NatGas
WAVE 1
Deregulation
• Wave 1 – Deregulation (1983 to 2004)
• Oil started trading in 1983 and averaged $23.06/barrel from 1983 to 2004
• Natural Gas began trading in 1997 and average $3.73 from 1997 to 2004
• From 1997 to 2004, the oil/gas ratio was 7.4
19. 19
Wave 2 - China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
Apr-83
Jan-84
Oct-84
Jul-85
Apr-86
Jan-87
Oct-87
Jul-88
Apr-89
Jan-90
Oct-90
Jul-91
Apr-92
Jan-93
Oct-93
Jul-94
Apr-95
Jan-96
Oct-96
Jul-97
Apr-98
Jan-99
Oct-99
Jul-00
Apr-01
Jan-02
Oct-02
Jul-03
Apr-04
Jan-05
Oct-05
Jul-06
Apr-07
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Historical Pricing - Oil, NatGas and Oil/Gas Ratio
OIL NatGas Oil/NatGas
WAVE 2
CHINA
• Wave 2 – China (2004 to 2008)
• China’s energy consumption doubles over 4 years – entry into middle class and
vehicle ownership – surge in demand for gasoline (oil).
• Oil price spikes from $30 in 01/04 to $134.02 in 06/08. Natgas spikes from $6.00
to $13.00 over the same time period.
• The Oil/Gas ratio averages 9X with a peak of 14X in 08/08.
20. 20
Wave 3 – Financial Collapse & Fracking (FC&F)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
Apr-83
Jan-84
Oct-84
Jul-85
Apr-86
Jan-87
Oct-87
Jul-88
Apr-89
Jan-90
Oct-90
Jul-91
Apr-92
Jan-93
Oct-93
Jul-94
Apr-95
Jan-96
Oct-96
Jul-97
Apr-98
Jan-99
Oct-99
Jul-00
Apr-01
Jan-02
Oct-02
Jul-03
Apr-04
Jan-05
Oct-05
Jul-06
Apr-07
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Historical Pricing - Oil, NatGas and Oil/Gas Ratio
OIL NatGas Oil/NatGas
WAVE
3
FC&F
• Wave 3 – Financial Collapse (2008 to 2010)
• Demand fell off a cliff – price of oil dropped – it took 8 months to drop from $134
in 06/08 to $39 in 02/09.
• Fracking technology unlocked in the US – MASSIVE supply hits market causing
natural gas prices to trade lower than levels reached at oil bottom.
• This causes the oil/gas ratio to expand to a high of 25X in 09/09.
21. 21
Wave 4 – 3 D’s (Decarbonisation, Digitalization, Distributed Generation)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
Apr-83
Jan-84
Oct-84
Jul-85
Apr-86
Jan-87
Oct-87
Jul-88
Apr-89
Jan-90
Oct-90
Jul-91
Apr-92
Jan-93
Oct-93
Jul-94
Apr-95
Jan-96
Oct-96
Jul-97
Apr-98
Jan-99
Oct-99
Jul-00
Apr-01
Jan-02
Oct-02
Jul-03
Apr-04
Jan-05
Oct-05
Jul-06
Apr-07
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Historical Pricing - Oil, NatGas and Oil/Gas Ratio
OIL NatGas Oil/NatGas
WAVE 4
3D’s
• Wave 4 – 3 D’s (2010 to July 2014)
• Climate change is front and centre. Massive amounts of government subsidy’s
pumped into new technologies to reduce GHG’s (i.e. Tesla)
• Oil prices continue to rise with global demand. Natural gas prices continue to
reach all time lows based on technology advances in fracking. This technology
begins to be applied to the “tight oil” plays in the US.
• Oil to gas ration explodes to 53X in 04/12 (Oil = $103.35, NatGas = $1.95)
22. 22
Waves 1 through 4 - Alberta Population and Migration
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000 03-01-1983
12-01-1983
09-01-1984
06-01-1985
03-01-1986
12-01-1986
09-01-1987
06-01-1988
03-01-1989
12-01-1989
09-01-1990
06-01-1991
03-01-1992
12-01-1992
09-01-1993
06-01-1994
03-01-1995
12-01-1995
09-01-1996
06-01-1997
03-01-1998
12-01-1998
09-01-1999
06-01-2000
03-01-2001
12-01-2001
09-01-2002
06-01-2003
03-01-2004
12-01-2004
09-01-2005
06-01-2006
03-01-2007
12-01-2007
09-01-2008
06-01-2009
03-01-2010
12-01-2010
09-01-2011
06-01-2012
03-01-2013
12-01-2013
09-01-2014
06-01-2015
NetMigration Int'l Prov'l Population
Wave 1 Wave 2 W
a
v
e
3
Wave 4 Wave 5
• Alberta population will continue to grow – disposable income will decline
• During the oil crisis of the 80’s, Alberta population growth was flat – interest rates
were 18% - people were forced out of home ownership and left the province.
• Today, interest rates are 3% - not likely to squeeze as many home owners.
Disposable income will decrease with lower paying jobs.
• There is a global trend towards urbanization due to wealth opportunities and
energy efficiencies – i.e. Millennials take public transit vs. own vehicles
25. 25
USDCAD vs. Oil – Wave 2 to 4
y = -0.0073x + 1.6103
R² = 0.6928
$1.050
$1.100
$1.150
$1.200
$1.250
$1.300
$1.350
$1.400
$1.450
$27.00 $31.00 $35.00 $39.00 $43.00 $47.00 $51.00 $55.00 $59.00
Scatterplot - Monthly Oil vs. USDCAD
Wave 2 to 4 ($34 < OIL < $61)
• Wave 2 to 4 with Monthly Crude Range ($34 < OIL < $61) - Findings
• Significant R squared value of 69% when selecting crude value range ($34 to $61)
• Two dots in the blue circle represent recent USDCAD high on Jan 21/16 current
USDCAD on Jan 27/16. They are both above the trend line.
• When the price of oil is between $47 and $51, the USD CAD was between $1.19 and
$1.31.
26. 26
Annual Path for USDCAD vs. OIL (2004 – 2015)
37, 1.3008
49, 1.29
y = -0.0044x + 1.4222
R² = 0.6918
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
USDCAD vs. OIL - Annual Averages (2004 - 2015)
• Relatively strong R-squared of 69% - if relationship was to continue to hold, this
would mean that you would sell the USDCAD when its above the line, and buy the
USDCAD when its below.
• The past 3 years have settled “above” the line – which could just be noise, but could
also mean a structural shift in the relationship.
2004
2015
27. 27
Summary – Oil and USDCAD
• Crude oil prices have historically had a strong impact on
the USDCAD
• If you believe that we have seen a bottom in crude prices
and the USDCAD behaves in a manner similar to the
past 10 years, there is a lot of upside to selling the USD
at current levels.
• The table to the right illustrates where the USDCAD
should be worth with oil prices ranging between $25 and
$50. This assumes no structural changes between the
relationship between Oil and FX.
• Wildcards – New Federal Leadership, Interest Rates (US
raising rates, Canada is dropping rates)
28. 28
Forward Price Analysis
Waves 6, 7 and 8
Introducing the final 3 future waves. If they are correct, what surf
board works best in riding the wave?
Historical Waves Date
Wave 1 – Deregulation (D-REG) 1983 – 2004
Wave 2 - China 2004 - 2008
Wave 3 – Financial Collapse and Fracking (FC&M) 2008 – 2009
Wave 4 – Digitization, Distributed Generation, Decarbonization (3D’s) 2009 - 2013
Wave 5 – What the fuck? (WTF) 2013 – 2015
31. 31
Waves 5 through 8 – July 2014 to 2020+
$0.800
$0.900
$1.000
$1.100
$1.200
$1.300
$1.400
$1.500
$25.00
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
$85.00
$95.00
$105.00
$115.00 Wave 5
WTF
Wave 6
OMG
Wave 7
FML
Wave 7
Rebirth
Wave 4
3D’s
5 – WTF (07/14-12/15) 6 – OMG (2016) 7 – FML (01/17-06/18) 8 – Rebirth (07/18 ++)
Story Disbelief. This is just
another boom bust cycle.
OMG – the boom may
not happen. What
now?
FML – jobs slashed, fire
sales, panic.
Diversification of Alberta
economy. Shift away
from natural resource
based economy.
Physical
Winners
None – All physical assets
lose value.
Some – Begin to
aggregate heavily
discounted assets. Be
patient – more value to
come.
Buy deeply discounted
physical premium assets
that deliver 15% IRR to
individuals who still have
cash to buy.
Ride your physical
asset winners.
Financial
Winners
Commodity – Sell Oil
FX – Buy USDCAD
Equity – Sell highly
leveraged O&G companies
– emphasis on heavy oil
producers who own USD
debt.
Commodity/FX – Buy
OTM call options on
crude and put options
on USDCAD.
Spread Trades – 1-
Buy CNRL, Sell CVE
Buy Boardwalk, sell
DREAM REIT.
Commodity/FX – Less
value – reality sets in with
crude fair value between
$40 and $50.
Equity – Buy undervalued
AB companies that were
pulled down with market
(i.e. Boardwalk)
Uncertain.