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AFC Iraq Fund Factsheet 30.6.2018
1. AFC IRAQ FUND June 2018
Fund Category Iraq Public Equities
Country Focus Iraq
Subscriptions
Monthly at NAV (five business
days before month end)
Redemptions
Monthly at NAV
90 days notice for Class D
180 days notice for Class E
Benchmark Rabee USD Index
Fund Manager Thomas Hugger
Chief Investment
Officer
Ahmed Tabaqchali
Investment Manager
Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Ltd.,
Cayman Islands
Investment Advisor
Asia Frontier Investments
Limited, Hong Kong
Fund Base Currency USD
Minimum Investment USD 25,000
Subsequent Investments USD 10,000
Management Fee
Class D: 1.8% p.a. of NAV
Class E: 1.5% p.a. of NAV
Performance Fee
Class D: 18% p.a. of NAV
appreciation with high
watermark
Class E: 15% p.a. of NAV
appreciation with high
watermark
Fund Domicile Cayman Islands
Launch Date 26 June 2015
Custodian Iraq Depository Centre (IDC)
Auditor Ernst & Young, Hong Kong
Administrator Custom House, Singapore
Legal Advisor Ogier, Hong Kong
Contact Information
Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.
www.asiafrontiercapital.com
Mr. Thomas Hugger
CEO, Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.
Tel: +852 3904 1015, Fax: +852 3904 1017
th@asiafrontiercapital.com
Mr. Peter de Vries
Marketing Director, Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.
Tel: +852 3904 1079, Fax: +852 3904 1017
pdv@asiafrontiercapital.com
Registered Office:
c/o Intertrust Corporate Services (Cayman) Limited
190 Elgin Avenue, George Town
Grand Cayman KY1-9007, Cayman Islands
Hong Kong Office:
Asia Frontier Investments Limited
905, 9th
Floor, Loon Kee Building
267-275 Des Voeux Road Central
Hong Kong
Investment Objective
Achieve long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of listed Iraqi
equities as well as foreign listed companies that derive the majority of their business from Iraq.
Fund Information
The AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares returned −2.5% in June with a NAV of USD 664.67 which
is an out-performance versus its benchmark, the RSISUSD index, which lost −3.5%. Year to date
the AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares are up +17.1% vs −0.6% for the RSISUSD index.
Activity in the economy at large, and the market in particular, came to a virtual standstill at the
start of the month as it coincided with last two weeks of Ramadan followed by the Eid holidays.
Following the elections, claims of fraud surfaced as in past elections, however this time there
was an unusual action by parliament to force a recount of the whole vote and a wholesale
annulment of certain types of votes. Objections to parliament’s action were raised to the Supreme
Federal Court, whose ruling on 21st
June provided a framework for a workable compromise as
evidenced by its wholesale acceptance by all the political parties.
Ultimately it will not significantly change the balance of power of the main election winners.
The process of government formation continued unabated during this period and the broad
outlines of it are taking shape. However, irrespective of how it is formed, it would need to address
the reconstruction of the liberated areas, estimated at USD 88bn over five years.
Prevailing negative perceptions of Iraq’s ability to fund this have not reflected the transformative
effects of higher oil on its ability to self-fund. These effects are a potential cumulative two-year
budget surplus of USD 18.8bn by end of 2018 instead of the projected USD 19.4bn deficit. This
equals a stimulus of 14.5% of non-oil GDP thus further accelerating economic activity.
The stock market’s action was a continuation of the same trends of the last few months. Banks
continued to decline on concerns over the effects of the shrinking FX margins on their earnings,
brought on by increasing signs of an improvement in liquidity in the broader economy. FX
spreads are one of many sources of revenues for the higher quality banks but constitute the bulk
of earnings for the lower quality banks.
These concerns fail to take into account the transformative effects of the surpluses on the banks’
future earnings through the simulative effects they would have on economic activity. This
leverage worked in reverse during the double whammy of the ISIS conflict and the collapse in
oil prices as government finances were crushed by increasing expenses and declining revenues.
These led to dramatic expenditures cuts by the government through cancelling capital spending,
which due to its centrality in the economy, led to year-year drops in non-oil GDP of −3.9%,
−9.6% and −8.1% for 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. The effects were disastrous for private
sector businesses whose finances deteriorated, and which in turn affected the quality of bank
loans as these businesses accounted for the bulk of bank lending.
Consequently, the banks’ earning suffered from the increasing non-performing loans (NPL’s)
coupled with negative loan growth, as well as from declining/negative deposit growth. Its logical
to conclude that the sea change which has taken place in the government’s financial health would
reverse these negative trends as the significant stimuluses to non-oil GDP should lead to
sustainable economic activity, providing room for the banks to recover and grow again.
As of 30th
June 2018, the AFC Iraq Fund was invested in 14 names and held 2.6% in cash. The
fund invests in both local and foreign listed companies that have the majority of their business
activities in Iraq. The markets with the largest asset allocation were Iraq (96.1%), Norway
(3.0%), and the UK (0.9%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials
(47.9%) and consumer staples (21.7%). The estimated trailing median portfolio P/E ratio was
12.91x, the estimated trailing weighted average P/B ratio was 0.88x, and the estimated portfolio
dividend yield was 6.67%.
665
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Fund Performance (Net)
AFC Iraq Fund USD (Net) Rabee USD Index