Talita M. Machado

1. I Meeting of Systematics, Biogeography, and Evolution (SBE)
Will small range bromeliads cope with climatic
change in Brazil?
Talita M. Machado
HSTM herbarium, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Brazil

2. Introduction
These species, that are confined to
mountains, may not have sufficient
suitable habitat left to escape climatic
change (CC) effects and hence may
face a high risk of extinction.
This study aims to investigate if two
small range and endangered
bromeliads will cope with CC.
Bromeliaceae is a family of plants
with predominant distribution in the
Neotropics.
Many species are endemic to specific
habitats such as inselbergs and rock
outcrops in mountains.
Waltillia
hatschbachii
Alcantarea
imperialis
Photo: E.M.C. Leme

3. Predictive models
consensus for the
future (2070)
RCP 8.5
Predictive models
consensus for the
present days
Ocurrence
points
Environmental
layers
Ensemble of
algorithms
results
8 algorithm
MARS
FDA
GLM
GAM
CTA
RF
ANN
MAXENT
Waltillia
hatschbachii
8 points
Alcantarea
imperialis
9 points
19 bioclimatics
(CHELSA)
6 soil
3 topographic
Model evaluation -> jackkinife
(Pearson et al. 2007)
Material & Methods

4. Current 2070
Current 2070
Results
Waltillia
hatschbachii
66% reduction in
the suitability area
for the species
occurrence
Alcantarea
imperialis
81% reduction in
the suitability area
for the species
occurrence

5. Discussion & Conclusion
machado.mota.t@gmail.com
The projections for 2070 (RCP 8.5) indicated that climate
change will negatively impact Waltillia hatschbachii and
Alcantarea imperialis distribution.
The models showed a respectively 81% and 66% reduction of
the areas predicted as environmentally appropriate for the
occurrence of the species, indicating risk of extinction due to
habitat loss.
Even though Brazilian biodiversity faces more immediate
threats such as deforestation, property speculation and
constant fires, it is necessary that we begin to pay the same
attention to the possible effects of climate change and
consider them in the construction of conservation actions.